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They projected their key policy rate would top out at between 5.00% and 5.25% this year, up from a current 4.25%-4.50% rate. Market pricing indicates investors remain wedded to a more dovish view, with the policy rate peaking below 5% around mid-June before falling in the second half of the year. Rieder believes policymakers will raise rates by 25 basis points at the next two meetings, with further 25 basis point increases possible, depending on data. Investors in short-term options had priced in a much sharper move of about 2% going into Thursday's CPI print, according to data from market maker Optiver. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO's North American economist, believes the Fed is likely to raise rates just two more times this year before pausing.

☆ Futures rise on first trading day of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.90%, S&P 1.00%, Nasdaq 1.18%Jan 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Tuesday, the first trading day of 2023, as investors await a slew of economic data this week as well as minutes from the Federal Reserve's previous meeting for clues on the path of future interest rate hikes. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) shed 19.4% in 2022, marking a roughly $8 trillion decline in market cap, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) fell 33.1%. As investors return from the New Year holidays, focus is now on the likelihood of a recession following aggressive monetary policy tightening. ET, Dow e-minis were up 298 points, or 0.90%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 38.5 points, or 1.00%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 129.75 points, or 1.18%. Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) fell 2.6% in premarket trading as the electric-vehicle maker missed Wall Street estimates on deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2022.

☆ European shares rise with focus on German inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Bansari Mayur Kamdar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The pan-regional STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 1.6% in early trading, to its highest level in more than two weeks. Germany's CPI data, due at 1300 GMT, could provide a preview for inflation in the euro zone, with investors waiting to see if cost pressures in the region have weakened after the European Central Bank's aggressive monetary policy tightening. French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said inflation was expected to peak at the start of 2023 before then retreating. European stocks ended their first session of the year higher on Monday after euro zone manufacturing data suggested the worst had passed as supply chains begin to recover and inflationary pressures ease. Data on Tuesday also showed material shortages eased further in Germany's manufacturing sector towards the end of the year.

The dollar, a beneficiary of rising U.S. interest rates, was on track for its best annual performance in seven years. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.4% to a two-week low. Sterling was set for its worst performance against the dollar since 2016, when Britain voted to leave the European Union. U.S. Treasuries and German bonds, the benchmarks of global borrowing markets, lost 16% and 24% respectively in dollar terms this year as rates rose. Ten-year German Bund yields rose 4 bps to 2.51% and two-year yields hit their highest since 2008 after data showing Spanish core inflation rose in December.

☆ Futures edge higher as investors assess China reopening
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.25%, S&P 0.19%, Nasdaq 0.14%Dec 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Wednesday as investors weighed the unwinding of pandemic restrictions by China against surging COVID cases in the world's second largest economy. "If the Chinese reopening story is positive for oil and commodity prices, it's bad news for global inflation," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. "The surge in Chinese demand will certainly boost inflation through higher energy and commodity prices and in response to higher inflation, the central banks will continue hiking rates." ET, Dow e-minis were up 84 points, or 0.25%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.25 points, or 0.19%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 15.75 points, or 0.14%. They hit their lowest level in more than two years in the previous session over demand worries in China.

☆ European shares gain on China recovery optimism
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Bansari Mayur Kamdar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) gained 0.4% to start the holiday-shortened week higher. China on Monday said it would drop its quarantine requirements for inbound visitors, further easing three-year border controls aimed at curbing COVID. While London and Dublin markets remained closed for the Christmas holiday, most European bourses advanced in early trading. Miners (.SXPP) and energy stocks (.SXEP) added 1.0% and 1.4%, respectively, as commodity prices jumped on hopes of demand recovery in top consumer China. Industrials (.SXNP) and banks (.SX7P) gained for a second straight session, lifting the broader European index.

☆ Wall Street awaits midterm vote tallies
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Republicans were favored to win control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, polls and betting markets showed earlier, though it may be hours before all vote tallies are known. read moreCOMMENTS:CHARU CHANANA, MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, SINGAPORE"The race seems to be closer than expected, especially for the Senate. "That said, if the Republicans take the Senate along with the House that provides a pro-business backdrop for the market." "A Republican win will in generally be positive for equities, but inflationary risk is unlikely to be mitigated nor accelerated." IPEK OZKARDESKAYA, SENIOR ANALYST, SWISSQUOTE BANK"From an investor point of view, a Republican win in both chambers is a good outcome for the stocks.

German chemicals maker Covestro (1COV.DE) lowered its 2022 earnings guidance for the third time this year, blaming gas and raw material prices. Gas prices in Europe have eased in response to an unusually warm October and projections of a mild winter. The group, which relies heavily on natural gas, is buying from outside Europe, where prices are lower. RACE TO CUT COSTSCompanies across Europe are racing to reduce their energy use ahead of the winter when demand increases as households turn up the heat. Chemical companies are among the hardest hit by the energy crisis because they use gas as a raw material for production and as an energy source.

A logo of Turkey's Central Bank (TCMB) is pictured at the entrance of the bank's headquarters in Ankara, Turkey April 19, 2015. Turkey's lira touched a record 18.42 versus the dollar, surpassing the level reached during a full-blown currency crisis last December. The European Central Bank also raised its key rates by 75 basis points this month. One had predicted a 50 basis-point cut to 12.50%, while two forecast a 100 basis-point cut to 12%. Turkish lira timeline September 2022Each rate cut weighs more on country risks and the lira, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

☆ Turkey's lira at fresh record low after surprise rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Turkish lira banknote is displayed on U.S. Dollar banknotes in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Turkish lira sank to a fresh record low on Thursday after the central bank delivered yet another surprise interest rate cut, this time of 100 basis points. IPEK OZKARDESKAYA, SENIOR ANALYST, SWISSQUOTE BANK"The CBRT cut the policy rates by 100 bps for the second month. As an economist, it's hard to comment on this decision, because normally, higher inflation requires higher interest rates. Every rate cut gets the Turkish rates away from the fair value, and weigh on the country risks and the FX rates.

☆ Futures fall as focus turns to Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., September 13, 2022. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"The fundamental environment has hardly changed." Focus will also be on the updated economic projections and dot plot estimates for cues on policymakers' sense of the endpoint for rates and the outlooks for unemployment, inflation, and economic growth. ET, Dow e-minis were down 139 points, or 0.45%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 19.75 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 70.5 points, or 0.59%. read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Devik Jain in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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