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Fed terminal rate to reach just under 5%, said bond strategists
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
With scant evidence of sustained cooling in inflation, global central banks are unlikely to deviate yet from their current tightening paths. If any, the bias was for them to take interest rates higher or keep them at elevated levels for longer. He also said the "ultimate level" of the central bank's benchmark policy rate was likely to be higher than previously estimated. The median forecast from over 30 bond strategists who answered an additional question in the Nov. 4-9 poll put the terminal fed funds rate at 4.75%-5.00%, with one forecast as high as 5.50%-5.75%. A strong 74% majority, 23 of 31, expected the terminal rate to be reached by end-Q1 2023.
The currency has weakened over 7% against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2022. It was then expected to rally to 1.31 in a year, versus 1.30 expected in last month's poll. "That implied spread between terminal rates in Canada and the United States will probably have to widen out further and that could take the U.S. dollar higher across the board including against the Canadian dollar." Investors are betting on a terminal rate, or peak level for interest rates, from the BoC in the coming months of 4.25%. "We see less interest in investing money back into the ground in the oil patch when oil prices are high and so there's less room (for the currency) to fall when oil prices are low."
BENGALURU, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar's retreat in foreign exchange markets is temporary, according to a Reuters poll of currency strategists, who said the greenback still had enough strength left to reclaim or surpass its recent highs and resume its relentless rise. The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its fourth jumbo increase in a row. However, for the December meeting interest rate futures showed a split on the odds of a 75 or 50 basis point increase. Those six and 12-month median forecasts were a slight upgrade from the October poll and the first since April. It was expected to trade around 146.0, 141.7 and 135.0 per dollar over the next three, six and 12 months respectively.
BENGALURU, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar's retreat in foreign exchange markets is temporary, according to a Reuters poll of currency strategists, who said the greenback still had enough strength left to reclaim or surpass its recent highs and resume its relentless rise. The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its fourth jumbo increase in a row. However, for the December meeting interest rate futures showed a split on the odds of a 75 or 50 basis point increase. Those six and 12-month median forecasts were a slight upgrade from the October poll and the first since April. It was expected to trade around 146.0, 141.7 and 135.0 per dollar over the next three, six and 12 months respectively.
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