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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA's Savita Subramanian on why we are heading into a 'tricky' part of the yearSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what has changed in the strategist's thoughts on the S&P 500, estimates for AI capital expenditures, and much more.
Persons: Subramanian Organizations: BofA Securities
Analysts say infrastructure investments are cheap relative to the rest of the market. "AI/TMT capex beneficiaries are pricing in strong growth after a year of momentum. "AI adoption has accelerated growth in electrical, thermal, and HVAC manufacturers…But unlike TMT, these sectors haven't priced in as strong growth. As infrastructure investment has slowed, manufacturing activity has only sped up, taxing increasingly older infrastructure, and America's roads, bridges and transportation systems show it. AdvertisementThe Bank of America analysts aren't the first to point to a need for increased attention to US infrastructure and industrialization.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Biden's, Savita Subramanian, Biden, aren't, Richard Bernstein Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Analysts, American Society of Civil Engineers, Republican, of America, Investment
Certainly lower interest rates are a huge help, particularly for small-cap companies that are generally more sensitive to interest rate changes. There must be a belief that earnings will broaden out beyond a small group of megacap tech stocks. The root source of the long tech rally is the superior earnings growth of technology. Two questions follow: with the massive rise in tech prices, is most or all of that earnings growth now priced in, and what are the prospects for earnings growth in other sectors? The problem is identifying where this additional earnings growth is coming from, and how robust it might be.
Persons: it's, Supriya Menon, America's Savita Subramanian, Bryan Spillane, Subramanian Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Wellington Management, Bloomberg, Bank, America's Locations: cyclicals
So that's what the bank did, listing 10 signals that they found to be most reliable, as well as the best investing approach for a market peak. The index has reached 110 within the six months preceding every market peak since July 1990, and in January 2024, it reached 111. ValuationElevated stock valuations are also telling of a market peak, but Bank of America's indicators relating to P/E ratios aren't currently triggered. A third macroeconomic indicator, Bank of America's Credit Stress Indicator (CSI), is not triggered. It often drops below 0.25 within six months of a market peak, but sits at 0.39.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, America quantifies Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, Conference, Bank of America Investor, Bank, America, The Conference Board, SSI, Wall Street, of America's, CSI Locations: today's
India has been dubbed the "perfect" emerging market to invest in, but it can be tricky for those outside the country to gain access. India's stock market has been making headlines this year, and for good reason. "India remains one of the best-performing equity markets this year, underpinned by the world's fastest-growing major economy and a resilient macro backdrop," said James Thom, senior investment director Asian equities at Abrdn, in a note to clients. Some of the top ETFs in North America include the Columbia India Consumer ETF , the First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF and the BMO MSCI India ESG Leaders Index ETF . In Europe, the list includes the iShares MSCI India UCITS ETF , which provides exposure to around 85% of the stock market, and the Xtrackers MSCI India Swap UCITS ETF Capitalisation 1C .
Persons: Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Narendra Modi's, Kevin T, Carter, Goldman Sachs, James Thom, aren't, GDRs, Arjun Jayaraman, there's, Jayaraman, Abrdn's Thom, Surendra Goyal, Thom, EMQQ Global's Carter, Modi's, it's, Jonathan Pines, — CNBC's Ganesh Rao, Tuul, Bruno Morandi Organizations: CNBC Pro, IMF, Bharatiya Janata Party, EMQQ, CNBC, Wealthmills Securities, Global, Causeway, Mutual, Columbia India Consumer ETF, First Trust India, BMO, India, Nasdaq, Investors, Nokia, Bank of America, Citi, Edge, Reliance Industries, U.S ., Bank of India, Network18, Bank, Getty Locations: India, China, North America, Europe, Singapore, U.S, Indian, Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, Mumbai
Bank of America predicts large-cap value stocks will start to outperform growth stocks. AdvertisementThe most boring area of the stock market is poised for a "renaissance" of outperformance, according to Bank of America. AdvertisementA hard landingAnother scenario in which value stocks should outperform is if the economy experiences a hard landing. That would likely lead to a sharp sell-off in growth-oriented stocks and the relative outperformance of value stocks. A world of structurally higher rates and inflation should bolster value stocks," Bank of America said.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, corporates, Banks, Ebrahim Poonawala, Consumer Staples, Staples, Subramanian Organizations: of America, Bank of America, Service, Equity, " Utilities, Energy, Banks, Consumer
Generating income with dividend stocks Dividend stocks have long been a staple of income investors' portfolios. Municipal bonds offer income that's free of federal tax, however. These names trade on exchanges like stocks, and they can offer dividend yields upward of 6%. Options strategies to create income Derivative income funds , such as the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), gathered some $22 billion in 2023, according to Morningstar. Further, consider comparison shopping, as all "derivative income" funds have their own quirks and differences in strategies could affect their risk/return profile.
Persons: Janus Henderson, Walt Disney's, Amber Milam, Jefferies, It's, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Russell, Louis, Morningstar, Mike Mulach, Rick Rieder, he'd, Kathleen McNamara, there's, , Bill Gross, JEPI, Cash, Ashton Lawrence Organizations: Federal Reserve, Meta, Mobile, Bank of America, IBM, . Investment, Fitch, Credit, nab, ICE, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Fed, UBS, UBS Wealth Management, York Life Investments, , JPMorgan, Mariner Wealth Advisors Locations: U.S, Greenville , South Carolina
AdvertisementThe media giant, which owns Paramount Pictures and CBS, has been in the news as an acquisition target since late last year. Skydance might not be as recognizable a name, but the company's owner and CEO David Ellison is. It's "is Paramount big enough to survive on its own?" The rush to corner the market on data centers is a move by Big Tech to secure the keys to the coming AI kingdom. Big Tech, finance, and consulting jobs are becoming harder to come by, upending the job search for young people.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Rebecca Zisser, Warner, David Zaslav, Byron Allen, David Ellison, Larry Ellison, he's, Phillip Faraone, Peter Kafka, That's, Larry Ellison's, Alyssa Powell, Savita Subramanian, Gary Shilling, Kitty, Keith Gill, Arif Qazi, Jason Zander, they'll, Apple's, Siri, Dominic Bugatto, that's, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Annie Smith Organizations: Service, Paramount, Business, Paramount Pictures, CBS, RedBird Capital Partners, KKR, Warner Bros . Discovery, Sony, Hollywood, Getty, Tech, Bank of America, Wall Street, GameStop, Google, Microsoft, Big Tech, BI, Washington Post, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Locations: China, India, Texas, New York, London
Technology stocks have dominated the market for more than a decade. However, strong outperformance in tech may begin to spread to other sectors of the stock market, according to BofA. Here are four reasons tech stocks' dominance could end later this year, according to the bank. AdvertisementThe technology sector's dominance over the stock market could finally end later this year, according to Bank of America. Advertisement"As earnings accelerate outside of Tech, investors will likely become more price sensitive and seek out cheaper earnings growth," Subramanian said.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, COVID Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Tech, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank of, Technology, Communication Services, Nvidia, hyperscalers Microsoft, Rockwell Automation, ROK Locations: Tech, China, Japan
Bank of America found that nine of 10 stocks on its list are tied to the AI boom. Buying AI," Bank of America strategists led by Savita Subramanian said in a note. "AI stocks are now core holdings." Meta Platforms , Uber Technologies , Netflix and ServiceNow also experienced a rise in popularity among active fund managers, according to Bank of America. The Wall Street firm said the change in fund managers' ownership has been positively correlated with the number of "AI" mentions on earnings calls.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Savita Subramanian, ServiceNow Organizations: Bank of, Bank of America, Broadcom, Arista Networks, Applied Materials, Nvidia, Microsoft, Uber Technologies, Netflix Locations: U.S
Now that the S & P 500 and most major stock market indexes are at or near historic highs, expect a raft of earnings and year-end price target revisions for the S & P 500 to be coming. First up with an upward revision was Brian Belski at BMO Capital, who Wednesday raised his year-end S & P target to 5,600 from 5,100. The median price target (half above, half below) is 5,200. Earnings for the rest of the year have been remarkably stable, but the key point is that each quarter is higher and a record for S & P 500 profits: 2024 S & P 500 quarterly earnings estimates Q2: $59.46 (record) Q3: $63.49 (record) Q4: $65.08 (record) Source: LSEG Valuations (roughly 20 times forward S & P 500 earnings) are pricey but not unreasonable given the continuing strength of the economy and the prospects of AI-boosted returns. May: market advance broadens (advance/decline line) S & P 500: near new high S & P Mid Cap: new high S & P Small Cap: highest since Dec.
Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Brian Belski, Belski, Subramanian, Venu Krishna, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Lori Calvasina, Manish, Nicolaus, Barry Banniester, Jonathan Golub, Chris Harvey, Dubravko, Bujas, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnson, Scott Chronert, Julian Emanuel, Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Hugo Ste, Stovall Organizations: BMO Capital, Wall, of America, Barclays, BMO, RBC, Societe Generale, UBS, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, ISI, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, @VX Locations: Wells Fargo, Marie
Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, , of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan
Stocks closed higher on Thursday ahead of Apple earnings and the April jobs report. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian said the stock market has more room to run even without a rate cut. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS indexes closed higher on Thursday ahead of Apple's earnings and a key labor report set to be published Friday morning. Bank of America's US equity head, Savita Subramanian, has said the stock market has more room to run even without looser monetary policy.
Persons: America's Savita Subramanian, , Dow Jones, Veronica Clark, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Savita Subramanian Organizations: Apple, Bank, America's, Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Dow, Citi, Bank of, Bloomberg, Nasdaq Locations: China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA's Savita Subramanian: More to the S&P 500 than just semiconductors and megacap tech companiesSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.
Persons: Subramanian Organizations: BofA Securities
The U.S. economy is flashing a sign that's favorable for dividend stocks, according to Bank of America. In this environment, investors want to own dividend stocks with above-market yields, she said. For those characteristics, she looks to quintile two of the Russell 1000 by trailing dividend yield. Her screen guards against owning distressed companies that might move into the first quintile, the highest dividend yield group, if prices fall ahead of potential dividend cuts. APA has a 3.1% dividend yield, while HF Sinclair yields 3.5%.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Russell, Jeffrey Martin, CNBC's Jim Cramer, John Christmann Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, AES, APA, Sinclair, Callon Petroleum, CNBC, Citigroup, Citi Locations: U.S
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks closed higher on Friday to end the best week since November, with tech rallying after earnings from mega-cap stalwarts. Instead, traders focused mostly on earnings strength from Alphabet and Microsoft. In a Friday note, Fundstrat's Mark Newton pointed out that the earnings of Alphabet and Microsoft are paving the way for a broad rally. Next week, Apple and Amazon, will release earnings and investors will be focused on the Fed's next policy meeting scheduled for April 30-May 1.
Persons: , Fundstrat's Mark Newton, Savita Subramanian, we're, it's, Subramanian Organizations: Microsoft, Service, Federal, Amazon, Nvidia, Technology, Bank of, CNBC, Apple, Dow Locations: Here's
The crush of people at the rally was suffocating, although in India a crowd is no index of popularity. At 53, with a well-salted beard and serious eyes, he’s too old to be called Congress’s “scion,” but he still wears the sheen of dynasty. Then, on the heels of several corruption scandals, the mighty party — 140 years old next year — came unstuck. One of Modi’s successes has been not just to trounce the Congress Party but also to persuade people that the party has weakened India and emasculated its Hindus. (Amnesty itself halted its work in India in 2020, in the midst of what it later called an “incessant witch hunt” by the government.)
Persons: , Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira, Rajiv, Sonia, Modi, Organizations: Congress, Party, Amnesty, World Press Locations: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Russia
Investors looking for income along with potential capital appreciation may want to check out a few underperforming dividend stocks. Still, dividend stocks tend to do well during periods of economic recovery, which is now underway, Bank of America said recently . At least 51% of analysts covering these stocks rate them a buy or overweight, and the names have at least 10% upside to the average price target, according to FactSet. Here are those stocks: Mondelez currently has a 2.4% dividend yield and 20% upside to the average price target. About 65% of the analysts covering the stock rate it a buy or overweight, per FactSet.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Mondelez, Dirk Van de, Christopher Del Moral, Niles Organizations: Bank of America, CNBC, Oreo, Ritz, Chesapeake Energy, Southwestern Energy, East West Bancorp Locations: U.S, Europe, snacking, Marcellus Shale, East
According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's
Select dividend stocks could help boost investors' portfolio returns as the U.S. economy continues to improve, according to Bank of America. Investors should seek out companies with above-market dividend yields that are secure, not stretched, Subramanian advised. Among the energy names on the list is Chevron , which has a 4.2% dividend yield. The stock has an average rating of overweight and 14% upside to the average analyst price target, according to FactSet. Meanwhile, with Fifth Third Bancorp , investors can enjoy a 3.8% dividend yield.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Russell, Michael Wirth, CNBC's Organizations: Bank of America, Investors, Chevron, American Electric Power, Consolidated Edison, Utilities, Fifth Third Bancorp, Bancorp, Essex, Hotels, Resorts Locations: U.S
Around 970 million registered voters are expected to cast their votes for India's next prime minister. India will hold the world's largest general elections starting April this year with nearly a billion voters set to exercise their franchise. The seven-stage election process will start from April 19 and last till June 1, 2024, according to the schedule announced by the Election Commission of India. The country has about 970 million registered voters. Since Modi won a second term in the 2019 general election, India has seen the economy strengthen, with Indian equity benchmarks hitting record highs.
Persons: India's, Narendra Modi's, Modi, Rajiv Kumar, Krishnamurthy Subramanian Organizations: India, India's, Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, WealthMills Securities, CNBC, BSE, International Monetary Fund, U.S, White House Locations: India, BJP, Hong Kong, China
The hikes also sweeten the potential total return for their stocks at a time when some Wall Street strategists are shining a light on that performance metric. That performance metric captures not just stock price moves but also gains from reinvested dividends. The difference between stock price performance and total return can be substantial, underscoring the benefits of reinvesting dividends. Consider that over the past 10 years, Linde's stock price has climbed 260%, according to FactSet. Eaton's stock price has climbed 321% over the past decade while its total return is 462%.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Jim Cramer's, Eli Lilly, Linde, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Disney, TJX Companies, . Eaton Corp, Linde, DuPont de Nemours, Coterra, Procter, Gamble, Bank of America, Meta, Alto Networks, Bausch Health, Abbott Laboratories, Broadcom, Costco Wholesale, Ford Motor, Nvidia, Apple, Costco, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Cincinnati, New York City
JPMorgan is sticking to its bearish thesis amid a more optimistic outlook on Wall Street, saying investors are ignoring key market risks. The Wall Street firm is an outlier among the major banks when it comes to year-end forecasts. As of Monday's close, JPMorgan expects the S & P 500 will tumble more than 17% to its 2024 target of 4,200, according to CNBC's market strategist survey . The S & P 500 has repeatedly notched all-time highs on the back of the artificial intelligence trade. The AI beneficiary, which has been a major driver for the S & P 500's gains this year, could drag the benchmark should it start to sell off.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Kolanovic, NVDA Organizations: JPMorgan, Bank, America's, Nvidia Locations: Gaza, Ukraine
Bank of America is now one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 Bank of America hiked its forecast after companies showed that profit margins have held up despite big swings in interest rates and inflation. The S & P 500 has rallied about 8% this year and scored consecutive record highs. Subramanian noted that the advance in the S & P 500 has been "stubbornly narrow," with four stocks driving 45% of the February gains. "We expect leadership to broaden as the gap between earnings growth of the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the S & P 500 begin to narrow," she said.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Subramanian Organizations: of America, BofA Securities, UBS, CNBC Pro Market, Survey, Bank of America
The sheer persistence of the equity rally, with the S & P 500 up 16 of 18 weeks and refusing to succumb to supposed late-February seasonal weakness, has converted the cautious. Still, by some lights, stocks' valuation is one of the better sentiment indicators, and by that measure the investment community is pretty enthusiastic. More simply, we continue to see elevated but not alarming P/Es in the S & P 500 broadly while the median P/E of the top 10 names in the index remains close to past peaks." Coming at a time when the S & P 500 is more than 13% above its 200-day moving average — pretty stretched — and we haven't had even a 3% pullback since October. The "right" cyclical sectors are leading (industrials and consumer discretionary in addition to tech), and the equal-weight S & P 500 is nosing toward its old high.
Persons: Scott Rubner, maven, Goldman Sachs, there's, it's, hustled, gunning, BofA's Savita Subramanian, Citi's Scott Chronert, Barclays Venu Krishna, Lori Calvasina, haven't, I've, We've, Stocks, Organizations: Micro, Dell Technologies, ARM Holdings, Bank of America, Barclays, Big Tech, Tech, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S
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