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Weak economic data could be good news for interest rates, as it could give the Federal Reserve a rationale for letting key interest rates stand at next month's monetary policy meeting. GDPFinancial markets have currently priced in a 88.5% likelihood of a September Fed pause, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Emerging market stocks rose 0.11%. The greenback extended its losses, touching a two-week low against a basket of world currencies in the wake of disappointing economic data. Crude prices edged higher as industry data showed tighter-than-expected supply as investors digested Hurricane Idalia's potential effect on demand.
Persons: Jason Reed, Dow, Oliver Pursche, Thomas Martin, Martin, Sterling, Brent, Stephen Culp, Sharon Singleton, Nick Zieminski, Josie Kao Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Federal, Wealthspire Advisors, Dow Jones, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Washington, New York, Atlanta, Asia, Pacific, Japan, U.S
"Today's data indicates that consumers are being cautious," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.97% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 1.38%. Emerging market stocks rose 1.09%. U.S. Treasury yields retreated after a sharp fall in U.S. job openings increased the likelihood of a Fed rate hike pause. Oil prices rose as Hurricane Idalia bore down on Florida's Gulf Coast, threatening supply in a tightening market.
Persons: Toby Melville, Peter Tuz, Tuz, payrolls, Brent, Stephen Culp, Susan Fenton, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Chase Investment, Commerce, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, U.S, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, U.S, Charlottesville , Virginia, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Gulf
[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.89% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.60%. Emerging market stocks rose 0.65%. U.S. crude rose 0.34% to settle at $80.10 per barrel, while Brent settled at $84.42, down 0.07% on the day. Gold gained ground as investors continue to digest Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole commentary last week and looked forward to the week's economic data.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Chuck Carlson, Carlson, Jerome Powell, China's, Brent, Sterling, Jerome Powell's Jackson, Stephen Culp, Neil Mackenzie, Amanda Cooper, Alex Richardson, Diane Craft Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, payrolls, PMI, Federal Reserve, Horizon Investment, Beijing, Labor, Commerce, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Gulf, U.S . Treasury, Fed, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Hammond , Indiana, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London
U.S. stocks rally, crude rises as crucial data awaits
  + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. European stocks were sharply higher with technology shares leading the way, with an assist from China-exposed industrials. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.85% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.69%. Emerging market stocks rose 0.65%. Gold gained ground as investors continue to digest Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole commentary last week and looked forward to the week's economic data.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Powell, Robert Pavlik, Jerome Powell, China's, Brent, Sterling, Jerome Powell's Jackson, Stephen Culp, Neil Mackenzie, Amanda Cooper, Alex Richardson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, payrolls, PMI, Federal Reserve, Dakota Wealth, Beijing, Labor, Commerce, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Fairfield , Connecticut, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London
The causes of the Hawaii wildfires, which started on Tuesday night, have not yet been determined. Hawaii Governor Josh Green on Sunday called a part of the island of Maui that was devastated by wildfires a "war zone". Reuters GraphicsHOW MANY DIED IN THE CLOQUET AND GREAT HINCKLEY FIRES? Since 2018, wildfires in the United States have destroyed nearly 63,000 structures, the majority of which were homes. In 2022, there were 66,255 wildfires in the United States, compared with 18,229 in 1983, when record keeping began, per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Persons: Josh Green, Peshtigo, Partridge, Hinckley, Stephen Culp, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: National Fire Protection Association, Historical Society, Reuters, HINCKLEY, Library of Congress, NFPA, Federal Emergency Management Association, FEMA, Environmental Protection Agency, Interagency Fire Center, Fire, Hinckley, Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, Thomson Locations: Maui, Hawaii, Lahaina, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Hinckley, Mission, Miller, United States, California
Morning Bid: Will August retain July's heat?
  + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
August 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Stephen Culp, financial markets journalist. Asian stocks have closed the books on a July that ran fairly hot, and not just with respect to temperatures. On Tuesday, Australia's central bank is expected to follow in the footsteps of its global peers by hiking its policy rate by 25 basis points. Both reports should provide further clarity on the effects of the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy on the world's largest economy. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Stephen Culp, Wall, Deepa Babington Organizations: CSI, Asia Pacific, Nikkei, China PMI, Bank of Japan's, Caterpillar, Institute for Supply, Labor, Reserve Bank of, Global, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Japan, China, Australia's, United States, India, Korea
Morning Bid: Asian markets face tough act to follow
  + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
NEW YORK, July 31 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Stephen Culp, financial markets columnist. Chinese stocks face the challenge of topping last week's 4.5% gain in the CSI 300 (.CSI300), the index's biggest weekly jump since November. Market participants are also scrutinizing the other side of the Sea of Japan for signs of life in the Chinese economy. Potentially market-moving U.S. indicators next week include manufacturing and services PMI. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Stephen Culp, Diane Craft Organizations: YORK, Japan's, CSI, Nikkei, Asia Pacific, Bank of Japan, Apple Inc, Western Digital Corp, Caterpillar Inc, Starbucks Corp, Qualcomm Inc, Marriott International, MGM Resorts International, Hotels, Resorts, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: China, Japan, Beijing, United States, Australia, Korea
Morning Bid: Over to you, Bank of Japan
  + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Stephen Culp, financial markets columnist. Could this be a landmark day for the Bank of Japan? The news was "the biggest driver of today's performance," according to Michael Green, portfolio manager and chief investment strategist at Simplify Asset Management. Reuters GraphicsEarlier in the day, U.S. stocks were buoyed and fears of a global economic slowdown were abated by upbeat earnings reports and a raft of better-than-expected U.S. economic data. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Stephen Culp, it's, Michael Green, Jerome Powell's, Marguerita Choy Organizations: YORK, Bank of, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Dow Jones Industrial, Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, U.S . Commerce, Federal, Commerce Department, Tokyo CPI, PPI, Carolina, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Japan, Tokyo, Australia, Korea
[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 29, 2023. Financials (.SPSY) led the gainers after the Federal Reserve's stress test showed U.S. lenders have adequate capital to weather an economic storm. Treasury yields rose, with 10-year yields touching their highest level since early March after economic reports painted a picture of a solid U.S. economy, promoting the "higher for longer" scenario with respect to restrictive monetary policy. The dollar touched a two-week high against a basket of world currencies as upbeat economic data provided cushion to the Fed to continue raising rates. Oil prices posted modest gains as the solid economic data suggested strong demand and a steeper-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Russell, Michael Green, Joseph Sroka, Brent, Stephen Culp, Marc Jones, Susan Fenton, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Fed, Dow, Nasdaq, Management, Dow Jones, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Japan's Nikkei, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Spain, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London
REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks moved sharply higher in a broad rally on Tuesday, and the dollar softened as robust economic data eased recession fears and stoked investors' risk appetite. "The economic data today was particularly strong," said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments in Atlanta. Emerging market stocks rose 0.58%. U.S. Treasury yields edged higher as solid economic data calmed recession jitters. Crude prices slid after U.S. economic indicators surprised to the upside, ahead of energy demand data expected later in the session.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Thomas Martin, Martin, Jerome Powell's, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Brent, Stephen Culp, Elizabeth Howcroft, Chizu Nomiyama, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, U.S, GLOBALT Investments, Financial, European Central Bank, ECB, Dow Jones, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Atlanta, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London
With few market-moving catalysts this week aside from Powell's congressional testimony, all three indexes notched weekly losses, ending a weeks-long rally. The Nasdaq snapped its eight-week winning streak, its longest since March 2019, while the S&P 500 (.SPX) broke its five-week rally, its longest since November 2021. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq logged their biggest Friday-to-Friday percentage drops since early March, when the regional banking liquidity crisis hit. "You can probably count on a rate hike next month, but it's that second hike that the markets are skeptical of," Mayfield added. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 33.48 points, or 0.76%, to end at 4,348.41 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 138.09 points, or 1.01%, to 13,492.52.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Ross Mayfield, Mary Daly, Tom Barkin, Mayfield, Russell, Stephen Culp, Shubham Batra, Shristi, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Federal, Nasdaq, Baird, Francisco Fed Bank, Reuters, Atlanta Fed, Financial, Dow Jones, Carmax Inc, Starbucks Corp, Thomson Locations: Louisville , Kentucky, Bengaluru
All three major U.S. stock indexes notched their third straight daily declines, with megacap tech- and tech-related shares weighing most. Tesla Inc (TSLA.O), along AI-related stocks such as Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O) were the heaviest drags. "There could be one more rate hike, but I don’t think anyone's buying the fact that there will be two. "A big portion of today’s weakness is because Tesla had one of its worst days in a while," Detrick added. "After a record win streak some kind of weakness is perfectly acceptable and normal."
Persons: Tesla, Jerome, Ryan Detrick, Powell, Detrick, Stephen Culp, Shubham Batra, Johann M Cherian, Ankika Biswas, Aurora Ellis Organizations: FedEx, Barclays, NEW, Federal, Carson Group, Tesla, Microsoft Corp, Nvidia Corp, . House Financial Services, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Tesla Inc, United Parcel Service Inc, Thomson Locations: Omaha, Bengaluru
All S&P 500 sub-sectors fell, with the rate-sensitive real estate sector (.SPLRCR) leading the declines, with a 0.8% drop. In the previous session, Wall Street's main indexes fell as investors booked profits in the wake of a sustained market rally amid signs of weakening global demand. Still, the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) has advanced around 14% so far this year. If a U.S. recession becomes more likely, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) said investors should maintain upside exposure to equities by using options to hedge a potential 23% fall in the S&P 500 index (.SPX). It holds chances of a recession at 25%, and in that base case, it expects the S&P 500 to rise to 4,500 - about 2.5% higher than current levels.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Volcker, that's, Peter Cardillo, Goldman Sachs, Li Auto, advancers, Shubham Batra, Johann M Cherian, Ankika Biswas, Stephen Culp, Arun Koyyur Organizations: FedEx, China EV, Dow, Financial, U.S, Fed, Spartan Capital Securities, United Parcel Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nio Inc, Xpeng, Adobe, Capital Markets, NYSE, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Bengaluru
All three major U.S. equity indexes ended the session in the red but off session lows, with oil super-majors Exxon Mobil Corp weighing on the S&P 500 and the Dow. Including Tuesday's loss, the benchmark S&P 500 has advanced 14.3% so far this year. Of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 all but consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) ended in negative territory. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 68 new highs and 87 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.15 billion shares, compared with the 11.36 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.
Persons: Jerome, Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, We've, Rivian, Morgan Stanley, Daniel Zhang, Eli Lilly, Stephen Culp, Shristi Achar, Shubham Batra, Johann M, Aurora Ellis Organizations: Fedex, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Exxon Mobil Corp, Dakota Wealth, U.S . House Financial, Dow Jones, Energy, Rivian Automotive Inc, Tesla Inc, PayPal Holdings, KKR & Co, Nike, Alibaba Group, Adobe Inc, Dice Therapeutics, Fedex Corp, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Fairfield , Connecticut, China, Europe, Bengaluru
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional testimony Wednesday looms as a potential market mover. All three major U.S. equity indexes ended the session in the red but off session lows, with oil super-majors Exxon Mobil Corp weighing on the S&P 500 and the Dow. The broad sell-off comes on the heels of the Nasdaq's longest weekly winning streak since March 2019, and the S&P 500's longest since November 2021. As of Friday's close, the benchmark S&P 500 had advanced 20% in the last twelve months, and over 14% so far this year. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 20.79 points, or 0.47%, to end at 4,388.80 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 22.28 points, or 0.16%, to 13,667.29.
Persons: Jerome, Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, We've, Morgan Stanley, Daniel Zhang, Eli Lilly, Stephen Culp, Shristi Achar, Shubham Batra, Johann M, Aurora Ellis Organizations: Federal, Exxon Mobil Corp, Dow, Dakota Wealth, U.S . House Financial, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Rivian Automotive Inc, Tesla Inc, Rivian, PayPal Holdings, KKR & Co, Nike, Alibaba, Adobe Inc, Dice Therapeutics, Fedex Corp, Thomson Locations: Fairfield , Connecticut, China, Europe, Bengaluru
The growth in bookings is largely driven by pent-up demand from loyal customers returning to taking summer vacations and other leisure travel, said the analysts. JPMorgan upgraded Carnival shares to "overweight", while Bank of America raised its rating on the stock to "buy", and the analysts raised their price targets on all the three cruise companies. Carnival shares rose 14% to a more than 1-year high in early trading on Monday while Norwegian Cruise gained nearly 8%. The S&P 500 Hotels Resorts & Cruise Lines Sub-Industry Index was up 0.9% led by gains in cruise stocks. Commercial airline shares were also making gains on Monday amid falling crude oil prices and growth in demand for seats.
Persons: Chibuike Oguh, Granth Vanaik, Stephen Culp, Lance Tupper, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, Carnival Corp, Cruise Line Holdings, JPMorgan, Bank of America Global Research, Carnival, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Bank of America, Norwegian Cruise, Royal, Hotels Resorts, Cruise, Southwest Airlines, Hawaiian Holdings, American Airlines, Thomson Locations: Royal Caribbean, New York
[1/3] A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. "All eyes are on Washington and investors remain focused on the debt ceiling," said David Carter, investment specialist at JPMorgan Private Bank in New York. "This is new territory and (it is) not perfectly clear if the Fed will allow tighter bank lending to replace tighter monetary policy." European shares closed higher and the German DAX reached a record high as hopes of progress in U.S. debt ceiling talks boosted investor sentiment. Oil prices edged lower following news that the debt ceiling talks were on pause, raising the possibility of a default that could hit energy demand.
[1/3] A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. "All eyes are on Washington and investors remain focused on the debt ceiling," said David Carter, investment specialist at JPMorgan Private Bank in New York. "This is new territory and (it is) not perfectly clear if the Fed will allow tighter bank lending to replace tighter monetary policy." European shares closed higher and the German DAX reached a record high as hopes of progress in U.S. debt ceiling talks boosted investor sentiment. Oil prices edged lower following news that the debt ceiling talks were on pause, raising the possibility of a default that could hit energy demand.
[1/3] A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File PhotoSINGAPORE, May 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were tentatively higher on Friday and benchmark Treasury yields extended their upward trajectory as market participants looked for signs of progress in the debt ceiling negotiations in Washington. Talks on Capitol Hill on raising the debt ceiling appear to be moving forward, with Democratic negotiators saying they've made "steady progress" toward a deal that would avoid a U.S. credit default. European stocks climbed and the German DAX touched a record high as optimism about a debt ceiling deal spread across the Atlantic. The dollar index fell 0.21%, with the euro up 0.18% to $1.0788.
Investors were closely monitoring the debt ceiling negotiations in Washington for signs that Democrats and Republicans might be inching closer to a deal. Optimism about debt ceiling talks ebbed and flowed, with hopes for a deal that avoids a catastrophic default. European stocks closed higher and the German DAX rose to its highest level since January 2022 on optimism about the U.S. debt ceiling talks. The greenback extended its ascent against a basket of world currencies, reaching a seven-week high, powered by the economic data and debt ceiling hopes. Gold moved in opposition to the dollar, with the precious metal losing some luster as the economic data lowered the likelihood of a Fed rate cut before year-end.
REUTERS/Brendan McDermidSINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - Wall Street moved higher on Wednesday, gathering momentum in afternoon trading, and the dollar touched a six-week high as regional banks surged and negotiations in Washington over raising the debt ceiling moved forward. Retail salesRegional banks provided some lift, with the KBW Regional Banks index (.KRX) surging 6.8% amid waning concerns of a liquidity crisis in the sector. The dollar gained touched a six-week high against a basket of world currencies, benefiting from its safe-haven status as debt ceiling talks grind on, but pulled back as investors trimmed their bets on near-term interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The dollar index rose 0.3%, with the euro down 0.23% to $1.0836. Oil prices rebounded on a brightened demand outlook and optimism over a debt ceiling resolution.
[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, May 15, 2023. REUTERS/StaffSINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - Wall Street was modestly higher on Wednesday and the dollar advanced as regional banks surged and negotiations in Washington over raising the debt ceiling inched forward. Debt ceiling negotiations preoccupied market participants, who took heart from Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy's vow to avoid what would be a catastrophic default. The dollar gained ground against a basket of world currencies, the greenback benefiting from its safe-haven status as debt ceiling talks grind on. The dollar index rose 0.4%, with the euro down 0.31% to $1.0827.
Disappointing results from Home Depot (HD.N), the largest U.S. home improvement chain, combined with weaker-than-expected retail sales data suggested consumer spending is losing some momentum as restrictive monetary policy dampens demand. However, a core measure of retail sales suggested the American consumer continues to bolster the economy. European shares ended lower as downbeat earnings and the U.S. retail sales data stoked worries about softer consumer spending. U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise on the heels of the retail sales data, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's efforts to toss cold water on the economy in order to rein in inflation has yet to take full effect. The dollar index rose 0.14%, with the euro down 0.04% to $1.0868.
[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, May 15, 2023. Meanwhile, disappointing results from Home Depot (HD.N), combined with weaker-than-expected retail sales data suggested consumer spending is losing some momentum as restrictive monetary policy dampens demand. However, a core measure of retail sales suggested the American consumer continues to bolster the economy. U.S. Treasury yields continued to climb on the heels of the Retail Sales data, suggesting that the Fed's efforts to toss cold water on the economy in order to rein in inflation has yet to take full effect. The greenback edged higher against a basket of world currencies after the weaker-than-expected retail sales data, shifting focus to the partisan debt ceiling wrangling unfolding in Washington.
"It feels like there's some optimism regarding talks on the debt ceiling," said Joseph Sroka, chief investment officer at NovaPoint in Atlanta. "Part of that may be political gamesmanship, but it's helping the market a little bit today." European stocks ended the session higher as investors eyed ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and Turkey's impending election runoff. Emerging market stocks rose 0.54%. Gold edged higher in opposition to the weakening dollar as the ongoing debt ceiling standoff stoked fears of a global economic slowdown.
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