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Search resuls for: "Stephanie Landsman"


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The artificial intelligence trade may be leaving investors vulnerable to significant losses. Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel warns Big Tech concentration in the S&P 500 is at extreme levels. Emanuel reflected on "odd conversations" he had over the past several days with people viewing Big Tech stocks as hiding places. "[They] actually look at T-bills and wonder whether they're safe. Interestingly enough, with all of this AI talk, health care and consumer staples have outperformed since April 1," Emanuel said.
Wall Street is wrong about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, according to former PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulley. Barring a surprise jump in inflation, he believes mounting economic pressures will convince the Fed to stop hiking interest rates next month. "It would be a pause and then a pivot [later this year]," McCulley told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Tuesday. According to Dow Jones estimates, Wall Street expects a 5.1% year-over-year increase versus 6% in February. "When the short end of the yield curve comes down and we re-slope the yield curve, then I think your garden variety, Main Street stocks will catch a bid," McCulley said.
This ominous trend spells a hard landing for economy
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Investors may want to brace for a hard landing. A new chart from the Economic Cycle Research Institute shows a recession is imminent. "We're seeing lots of symptoms [of a significant downturn] when you have crises," the institute's co-founder Lakshman Achuthan told CNBC's " Fast Money " on Wednesday. Achuthan highlighted a special weekly leading index sent to clients. ECRI's weekly leading index, which is based on a combination of government economic data, soft surveys and market prices, shows a firming in the beginning of this year.
A major Wall Street firm is ranking financial instability over inflation as the biggest economic risk for the next three months. In an interview following the Federal Reserve's quarter point interest rate hike, Wells Fargo Securities' Michael Schumacher suggested policymakers are underestimating how quickly tightening credit conditions could hurt the economy. "It's hard to say right now whether the Fed has tightened enough or too much," said Schumacher. "That's why the market has been bouncing around so much —whether it's the equity market or the bond market. As long as the financial sector can avoid another meltdown, Schumacher believes the Fed will hold interest rates higher for longer because inflation is still too high.
"Big Short" investor Danny Moses said the Silicon Valley Bank collapse is exacerbating the economic slowdown despite the government's actions to mitigate the impact. "You can't assume that the regulators have any idea what they're actually dealing with now considering that they were completely caught off guard... by what just happened at Silicon Valley Bank," the Moses Ventures founder told CNBC's " Fast Money " on Tuesday. Moses, who is known for successfully betting against the housing market before its 2008 implosion, speculates failures are just starting. "We still have underestimated in this market in general what is happening when you raise rates," Moses said, referring to the central bank's move to hike interest rates by 450 basis points since March 2022. The Federal Open Market Committee holds its two-day policy meeting on interest rates next Tuesday and Wednesday.
In a note out Monday, Emanuel highlighted a striking comparison to the 2-year Treasury Note yield plunge in the aftermath of Friday's Silicon Valley Bank collapse and 1987. Evercore ISI is comparing the bank stress to another critical time on Wall Street: The year of the savings and loan crisis and epic crash. He noted the three-day rate of change in the 2-year yield fell from the 5.08% peak to a recent "trough" of 3.99%. "Part of the end game is we do want to see enough of a downturn to make stocks attractive," said Emanuel. "The next thing that we really need to be cognizant of is how credit, in general, trades," Emanuel said.
And, the winner may be your neighborhood bank for the first time in years, according to Wall Street forecaster Jim Bianco. "Cash is no longer trash. That was a two-decade old meme that doesn't apply," the Bianco Research president told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Wednesday. "Cash could actually be somewhat of an alternative where it was just a waste of time throughout the 2010s. He uses the 6-month Treasury Note, which is yielding above 5% right now, as an example.
As Wall Street gears up for key inflation data, Wells Fargo Securities' Michael Schumacher believes one thing is clear: "The Fed is not your friend." The Fed cares about inflation, and that's just about it," the firm's head of macro strategy told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Monday. "[That] makes a big difference to the Fed – if that's 3%, 3.25%, 2.75%. He warns the year's early momentum cannot coexist with a Fed that's adamant about battling inflation. However, Schumacher notes there's still a chance the Fed chief Powell could shift course.
According to Chanos, the market will not be able to overcome rising rates and falling corporate profitability. "I've been on the Street [since] 1980 [and] not one bear market has ever traded above nine times to 14 times the previous peak earnings," the Chanos & Co. founder told CNBC's " Fast Money " on Monday. Chanos notes the market is anticipating corporate profits rising 12% this year, 2% inflation and a Fed rate cut within the next six to seven months. "That's pretty much nirvana if you're a bull," he said. Chanos, who said he doesn't try to time the market, doubts the bullish scenario will unfold.
JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is abstaining from the early 2023 rally. Instead, the Institutional Investor hall-of-famer is bracing for a 10% or more correction in the first half of this year, telling investors he's "outright negative" on the market. So, that has to clash at some point," the firm's chief market strategist and global research co-head told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Tuesday. "We think things first turn south, get much worse," said Kolanovic. Kolanovic believes they helped create a narrative the worse is behind us and a recession "somehow magically " happened last year.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson is telling investors to brace for a winter downdraft. He warns S&P 500 is vulnerable to a 23% drop — bringing it to 3,000. Wilson expects earnings season, which kicks off with financials on Friday, will jolt the market by coming in sharply below expectations. "When we actually talk to people, they talk a bearish game about the first half. But they're not really either positioned for it or they don't really think that it's going to be that bad," said Wilson, who has been defensively positioned since last year.
According to Sherlund, optimism surrounding technology stocks will make a comeback this year — but the key is weathering upcoming earnings season first. The latest market backdrop reminds him of prior downturns. "2022 was a terrible year for these [software] stocks," said Sherlund. His latest market forecast coincides with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 's latest struggles. Sherlund's base case is the move to high-growth areas such as the cloud will provide a long-term boost to software stocks.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who has an S&P 500 year-end target of 3,900 for next year, warns corporate America is getting ready to unleash downward earnings revisions that will pummel stocks. Wilson, who serves as the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer, believes the S&P could drop as much as 24% from Tuesday's close in early 2023. "You should expect an S&P between 3,000 and 3,300 some time in probably the first four months of the year," he said. "That's when we think the deacceleration on the revisions on the earnings side will kind of reach its crescendo." Wilson's year-end price target was 3,900 for this year, too.
A major exchange executive says he detected red flags months before the historic FTX collapse. CME Group chairman and CEO Terry Duffy said he suspected corruption at the cryptocurrency exchange the day of his first one-on-one meeting with founder Sam Bankman-Fried. "I told my team this had nothing to do with crypto," Duffy told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Tuesday. You're an absolute fraud," Duffy said he told Bankman-Fried. Duffy wanted to know whey the Commodities Futures Trading Commission was looking at Bankman-Fried's request to ease regulatory rules to push his trading model.
The U.S. will see inflation cut in half within six months, according to Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics. That has to cool off, and that's going to take some time." And then, the next step is to get wage growth moving south, and I think that's likely by early next year," he noted. "That's critical to getting broader service price inflation moderating and getting inflation back to target." I'm going to take a look around and see how things play out,'" Zandi said.
But Wells Fargo Securities' Michael Schumacher suggests the Federal Reserve is raising rates too slowly, telling CNBC's "Fast Money" he would seriously consider a 150 basis point hike this week if he were Chair Jerome Powell. But of course, the Fed won't do that." The key is policymakers need to convince investors the historical jump in rates is frontloaded, according to Schumacher. "It would do a huge move and then stop or stop pretty soon. Based on this month's CNBC Fed Survey, the Street believes the Fed will lift rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday.
Used auto prices are rising faster than bitcoin and other assets, according to market researcher Jim Bianco. He's building his analysis based on the Manheim index of used car prices, which is designed to track pricing trends in the market. Bianco cites two bullish drivers in the used car market. "Used car prices are supposed to be a depreciating asset. As for a peak in auto prices, Bianco suggests it's anyone's guess.
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