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☆ Turkey at a crossroads: Will it turn to the East or West?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Idil Karsit | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Turkey joined NATO in 1952, formally cementing its place in the free world and within the Western fold. The two countries doubled their trade to $68 billion in 2022, despite sanctions on the Russian economy by Turkey's NATO allies. "This creates a system in which midsize players have more space to conduct partially independent foreign policies from the United States," she explained. "As the United States is less interested to play the regional politics, I think Turkey becomes an important actor — a stabilizing actor," he added. As Erdogan secures a third term in office, Turkey is at a crossroads: will it pivot to the East or West?

Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, China —, Senem Aydin, Talha Kose, Erdogan Organizations: NATO, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China, United, Sabanci University, Foundation for Political, Social Research Locations: Turkey, Ottoman, Russia, United States, China, India, Turkish

☆ Erdogan survived the biggest test of his political career. What’s next?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Nadeen Ebrahim | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Official results showed Erdogan winning with 52.1% of the vote, while opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu emerged with 47.9%. Murat Somer, a political science professor at Koc University in Istanbul, expects a hardened approach by Erdogan towards the opposition and his critics. “[Erdogan is] likely to continue his unorthodox economic policies because these actually serve his interests,” Somer told CNN. Becky Anderson's full interview with Turkish President Erdogan 20:52 - Source: CNNKorhan Kocak, an assistant professor of political science at New York University Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, worries about Erdogan’s moves after the election. And Erdogan is the man that delivered that to them.”Cagaptay said that Erdogan’s foreign policy is unlikely to change.

To be sure, the April inflation data hit the UK debt market like a thunderbolt. While the headline consumer price inflation rate dropped to 8.7% from 10.1% in March, as energy prices ebbed, that was still far higher than forecast and core inflation rates hit their highest in 31 years at just under 7%. And a chief concern for many households is ongoing annual food price inflation still near 20%. Sterling and real yield spreadsNew UK gilt shock? Using 5-year real yields from the index-linked bond market, that premium jumped almost 40bp this week to its highest since last October.

[1/2] A view of a polling station sign at Barley Town House, which is acting as a polling station for local elections in Royston, Britain, May 4, 2023. REUTERS/Peter CziborraLONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - Voters in England will cast their ballots in local elections on Thursday in the first major electoral test for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak following a year when the governing Conservatives have suffered a cascade of scandals, strikes and economic chaos. But his party is still forecast to suffer heavy losses when the results are announced on Friday. "But if (Labour) want to be on course to win the next election, they should be hoping to get a lead in national vote share of 10 points or so." This will be the first set of elections in England where voters will be required to show a form of photographic identification to vote.

☆ Harry Belafonte, calypso star and civil rights champion, dies at 96
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Alex Johnson | Diana Dasrath | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Singer Harry Belafonte speaks during a press junket at The Bing Decision Maker Series with the Sing Your Song Cast and Filmmakers on January 22, 2011 in Park City, Utah. American singer Harry Belafonte performing in a recording studio, circa 1957. By the early 1960s, Belafonte had become a force in the civil rights movement. A crowd of over 10,000 civil rights marchers gathers in the Manhattan Garment Center as Harry Belafonte sings at spiritual at a civil rights rally. A capacity audience of civil rights advocates turned out to watch a glittering array of theater personalities perform.

Fear that another tragedy could strike forced her to leave Istanbul because she couldn't afford a new apartment there, she said. However, seismologists said the February disaster has not changed the likelihood of an Istanbul quake, with the two areas on different faultlines. Any disaster in Istanbul would stagger Turkey's economy given the broader Marmara region accounts for some 41% of national GDP. Some 1.5 million homes are considered at risk in the city, Urban Planning Minister Murat Kurum said this week. According to official data, an average of more than three people live in each household, meaning up to 5 million live in these properties.

☆ 'I didn't retire until 99': 100-year-olds share their secrets to a long and happy life
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Renée Onque | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Dr. Gladys McGarey is the author of "The Well-Lived Life: A 102-Year-Old Doctor's Six Secrets to Health and Happiness at Every Age." It seems that almost everyone is searching for the secret to a long and happy life. In her book, "The Well-Lived Life: A 102-Year-Old Doctor's Six Secrets to Health and Happiness at Every Age," purpose is a key theme. Do some work to keep your mind engaged"I became a sacristan and didn't retire from that until I was 99," Margaret Stretton, told The Guardian. "I don't look back; I look forward."

☆ UK growth demands better-directed fiscal fireworks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

As a former health minister, Hunt is familiar with the Hippocratic Oath’s principle of “first, do no harm.” That credo didn’t resonate with former finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that borrowing in the current financial year is running 31 billion pounds below the November forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog. A further 6 billion pounds will freeze fuel duties, avoiding a 23% rise from April. In November, the OBR forecast that Downing Street would meet that goal with just 9.2 billion pounds to spare. That would still cost 11 billion pounds a year but would boost investment by 5% in the long run.

☆ Britain's early retired resist calls to work, despite higher living costs
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

The exodus of older workers has no equivalent in other advanced economies. "The best part of 90% of people who say they are early retired ... say that they will probably or definitely never work again." Based on data from before the pandemic, Britain's Resolution Foundation found the richest fifth of 50-59 year olds were 10 times likelier to retire early than the bottom fifth. Other companies say they value older workers for their experience. "Older workers are the ones that have got the skills - we don't find young people with the skills that we need.

☆ Record retail theft puts pressure on Australian supermarket giants
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Byron Kaye | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, March 2 (Reuters) - Retail theft has hit record levels in Australia, government statistics show, putting pressure on grocery giants Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW.AX) and Coles Group Ltd (COL.AX) that are already struggling with soaring supply costs and freight blockages. Queensland, Australia's third-largest state, had the highest monthly rate of shop stealing on record this January, according to publicly available police data. Neither state's data specified which retailers reported theft. That may impact profit at Woolworths and Coles, which together ring up two-thirds of Australian grocery sales and noted rising store theft in trading updates last month. Supermarkets refer to goods lost to theft, expiry or payment error as stock losses.

☆ Meet Gen Zalpha, the powerful combo generation of teens and 20-somethings who are about to have major spending power
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Avery Hartmans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Generation Zalpha is a major target for marketers due to its talent and its spending power. The internet-native Zalpha generation is a prime target for brands for another reason: its potential spending power. Patrick, the Claire's CMO, recently told AdAge that Gen Alpha is like Gen Z "on steroids." While Gen Z is often described as having grown up online, Gen Alpha was born online. Experts therefore predict Gen Alpha will be more impatient than previous generations, because they'll expect their needs to be met instantaneously.

☆ Analysis: Scotland's Sturgeon bows out at 'critical moment' for independence fight
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Alistair Smout | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

While Sturgeon said she was "firmly of the view that there is now majority support for independence in Scotland", the polls suggest there is more work to do. In the aftermath of the court ruling, some polls showed a majority support for independence, but that has recently come down back towards 2014 levels. "If that stops being the case, then that really could knock them back, and really could damage the cause of Scottish independence." "The movement has been left with no clear strategy for independence," Salmond, who now leads the Alba party, said. "Voters see no clear successor to (Sturgeon) - it illustrates how dominant a figure she has been for so long," pollster Mark Diffley said.

By contrast, the median forecast for a similar poll on the U.S. Federal Reserve is exactly where futures currently price the Fed's terminal rate next year - 5.0%. Any reversion of terminal rate pricing to consensus or below could see the pound wobble again. "That said, we have been stressing downside risks to our terminal rate projection, given the constant dovish messaging from the MPC. BoE poll question on Terminal Rate Risks? Central Bank Rate Hike CampaignSterling volatilityThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - If financial markets bore the brunt of this year's interest rate shock, housing now stands in the firing line. With long-term U.S. fixed mortgage rates above 7% for the first time in 20 years, and more than double January rates, U.S. housing sales and starts are already feeling the heat. "We see a relatively greater risk of a meaningful rise in mortgage delinquency rates in the UK," Goldman said this month. While Australia and New Zealand have higher variable mortgage rates, British mortgage holders also have a higher vulnerability to rising joblessness. All of which bodes ill for UK house prices - although forecasts are still far from apocalyptic.

☆ In Burnley, Britain's cost of living crisis hits home
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Natalie Thomas | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/6] Keelie Topping shops in the parish of the Church of St Matthew the Apostle in Burnley, England, Britain November 10, 2022. While millions in Britain face a difficult winter, the Centre for Cities think tank says the nearly 95,000 residents of Burnley are most exposed to the shockwaves ripping through the economy. Consumers in Burnley saw prices rise 11.7% in the year to September, the think tank estimates, compared with 10.1% nationally, and 9.1% in London. Britain's exit from the European Union has so far failed to yield economic dividends for places like Burnley. Adrian Pabst, at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank, said the cost of supporting the poorest households did not have to be big.

☆ BOJ inflation target to be scrutinised at government forum
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 14 (Reuters) - A government-affiliated think tank will host a forum next month to discuss the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target and the "challenges ahead", the organisation said on Monday. Participants include Columbia University professor Takatoshi Ito, who was a proponent of setting an inflation target when the BOJ had none until 2013, and University of Tokyo academic Tsutomu Watanabe, a former BOJ official known for his analyses on Japan's price trends. Three months later, Abe's hand-picked BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda deployed a massive asset-buying programme to meet his pledge of achieving 2% inflation in roughly two years. But stubbornly low inflation and a fragile economy forced the BOJ to maintain a massive stimulus until now, keeping Japan's central bank an outlier among global peers that have been tightening monetary policy to combat soaring inflation. With prolonged easing crushing bank profits and distorting the yield curve, some lawmakers have called for tweaking the joint statement and making the 2% inflation target a long-term goal with some room for flexibility.

☆ UK think-tank urges Hunt to think again on budget squeeze
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - British finance minister Jeremy Hunt should rethink his plans to raise taxes and cut spending in next week's budget, a think-tank said, warning that many households would need further government help even without a fresh squeeze on the public finances. "It's not at all clear that the Chancellor needs to raise taxes or cut spending in the Autumn Statement next week. NIESR's deputy director for public policy, Adrian Pabst, said the cost of supporting the poorest households did not have to be big. "It seems extraordinary to suggest that this country cannot afford 0.2% of GDP to help the most vulnerable," Pabst said. ($1 = 0.8516 pounds)Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Catherine EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: Bank of England's recession warning turns spotlight to UK budget plan
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That would be a longer and shallower economic contraction than the ones that followed the COVID-19 lockdowns and the global financial crisis of 2007-09. But the backdrop of high inflation this time is limiting the policy options available to the government. Hunt has warned of tough decisions on taxes and spending as he prepares to announce the new government's first budget programme on Nov. 17. "This is not a recession we should be offsetting with lower interest rates and expansionary fiscal policy," Chadha said. Additional reporting by David Milliken;Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Jon BoyleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The net effect was to catapult next year's implied Fed terminal rate well above 5%. Fed vs BoE Terminal RatesNIESR chart on UK variable mortgagesBANK "IN A HOLE"Although the BoE insisted further hikes from 3% would likely be needed, two of the nine person policymaking council voted for a smaller rate rise this week. State Street's EMEA macro strategist Tim Graf also thinks a terminal rate closer to 4% is now "the more likely end state for policy rates." The BoE needs to be super careful about the pound because another withering lurch will simply aggravate import and energy price inflation. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

And futures now assume the inflation fight will fall solely on the BoE and expect it to triple policy rates to as high as 5.8-6% next year. On Tuesday, the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies said Kwarteng needed 62 billion pounds ($68.22 billion) of spending cuts to keep public debt sustainable over time, with borrowing this year on course for 194 billion pounds and still above 100 billion by 2026/27 - over 70 billion higher than OBR forecasts in March. QE involves the purchase of mostly gilts from commercial banks in return for interest-bearing reserves at the central bank. And, unlike other major central banks, the BoE policy rate itself is the rate paid on those bank reserves. NIESR last year urged a solution to the problem whereby Treasury and central bank reduced the maturity mismatch by swapping longer-dated gilts back to Treasury to cut duration of its portfolios.

☆ The UK's abrupt tax cuts are sowing market chaos — and putting policymakers in a no-win situation that threatens economic crisis
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The UK government's plan to slash taxes and stimulate economic growth has backfired spectacularly. The episode risks lifting inflation higher still and levying new economic pain on all Britons. What was introduced as an effort to boost the UK's economic growth is backfiring to an extraordinary degree. The blowback could range from a weaker British pound to a government default, even higher inflation, higher unemployment, a bigger wealth gap, and a crippling recession. According to Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, the aim was to lift the struggling UK economy and cut the risk of a near-term downturn.

But many campaigners believe King Charles III presents a unique opportunity: They think most royalism was actually fondness for the widely loved queen, and he — a new, less popular king — won't inherit this support. The English Civil War resulted in the beheading of King Charles I, before the "Glorious Revolution" saw English elites effectively choose a new monarch who gave lawmakers more rights. William, Prince of Wales, and Catherine, Princess of Wales, look at floral tributes to the queen at Sandringham Estate on Thursday. Some observers agree that Charles should be viewed in an entirely new light now that he is king. “The monarchy knows statesmanship is about knowing to give up what you can no longer keep,” she said.

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