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BERLIN, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Lower revenues from oil and gas exports will significantly widen Russia's budget shortfall this year, according to an analysis from the European ratings agency Scope obtained by Reuters on Friday. Scope expects the deficit to rise to 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), significantly wider than the government's forecast of 2% of GDP, according to the analysis. Another way to plug the deficit is to issue domestic bonds to state-owned banks, backed by liquidity provided by the Bank of Russia. Western countries want caps on the price of Russian oil to reduce income for the Kremlin's war chest for its invasion of Ukraine, which entered its second year on Friday. Reporting by Rene Wagner; Writing by Friederike Heine; Editing by Rachel More and Kevin LiffeyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
China has been buying more energy from Russia since the Ukraine war started. Total trade between China and Russia hit a new record high in 2022, up 30% to $190 billion, according to Chinese customs figures. In particular, the energy trade has risen markedly since the onset of the war. Russian companies have been using more yuan to facilitate the increased trade with China. UnionPay, the Chinese payments system, has reportedly stopped accepting cards issued by Russian banks over fears of international sanctions, according to Russian paper Kommersant.
The SWIFT global payments system block and the freezing of more than $300 billion worth of central bank reserves abroad took Russia by surprise. The top executive at the top-20 Russian bank said Moscow was unprepared in particular for liquid assets being blocked and euro and dollar swaps becoming unavailable. "No one expected that the central bank would come under sanctions, and that it would be unable to help with foreign currency liquidity at that difficult moment," they said. 'BEST FRIEND'For banks, central bank support was crucial to weathering the initial hit to their business. The central bank's forecast is more restrained, at around 1 trillion roubles.
Non-oil and gas revenues were 28% lower at 981 billion roubles, attributed to lower domestic VAT and income tax takings. Overall, budget revenues for the month were down 35.1%, while spending was 58.7% higher in January 2023, at 3.12 trillion roubles, already more than 10% of the full-year spending plan. January's deficit already stands at 60% of the whole year's plan of 2.93 trillion roubles and analysts expect the shortfall to widen to more than 5 trillion roubles if current conditions persist. Russia's main sources of covering the budget deficit are domestic borrowing, which it stepped up sharply in the final quarter of 2022, and its rainy day fund of accumulated energy revenues. On Monday, the ministry said the National Wealth Fund (NWF) stood at $155 billion, with 38.5 billion roubles worth of Chinese yuan and gold spent in January to cover the deficit.
Jan 18 (Reuters) - Russia's National Wealth Fund shrank to $148.4 billion as of Jan. 1, down $38.1 billion in a month, as the government took out cash to plug its budget deficit, data showed on Wednesday. The ministry said it had spent 2.41 trillion roubles ($35.1 billion) from the NWF, a rainy day fund that accumulates oil revenues, to cover the deficit in December. The size of the NWF at Jan. 1 was equivalent to 7.8% of Gross Domestic Product, the finance ministry said. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said last week that Russia recorded a budget deficit of 2.3% of GDP last year, having targeted a surplus of 1% before the start of the war. According to the budget law, the finance ministry can spend another 4.2 trillion roubles, currently worth around $61 billion, over the next two years to plug the deficit.
Jan 16 (Reuters) - Russia's attempts to plug its budget deficit by selling foreign currency reserves could lead to a vicious circle that pushes the rouble higher and further reduces the Kremlin's crucial export revenues, analysts say. That process could trigger a cycle of weaker export revenues, requiring more foreign currency sales and leading to an even stronger rouble, exacerbating the budget hole. Finance minister Anton Siluanov said in December that the price cap imposed on its oil could mean Russia's budget deficit is wider than current plans for 2% of GDP in 2023. Government officials have also publicly said they would like to see a weaker rouble - something the foreign currency interventions seem likely to prevent. Russia's budget for this year is based on a Urals blend price of around $70.10 a barrel, though Russia's main blend is currently trading at around $50 a barrel.
"The growing dependence of the budget on oil raises concerns," Alfa Bank said in a note that warned a decline in revenue from gas and oil product exports "looms on the horizon." Analysts say that as the government increased spending by more than a quarter in 2022, in part to finance its military in Ukraine, the oil price required to balance the budget jumped from $67 to $101 a barrel. "When there is a big gap between the actual price (of oil) and the balancing price, it cannot be sustainably covered by borrowing," said Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. VAT rates, profit taxes and income tax would not be changed, Sazanov said, but other industries may face a higher tax bill. The measures are expected to net an additional 3.6 trillion roubles for the Russian budget over three years.
The ministry said the permitted share of gold in the NWF would also be doubled, to 40%. "The Russian finance ministry is continuing its consistent reduction of the share of currencies of 'unfriendly' states in the structure of the National Wealth Fund's assets," the ministry said in a statement. "In order to hedge exchange rate risks, we have always (replenished the NWF) in foreign currency," Siluanov said earlier this week. "From among the currencies of 'friendly' countries, the yuan has the characteristics of a reserve currency to the greatest extent, as well as sufficient liquidity in our domestic foreign exchange market," he added. The Moscow Exchange, Russia's largest bourse, said yuan-rouble trading volumes would surpass dollar-rouble trading volumes next year as financial links between Moscow and Beijing continue to intensify.
More details are sure to emerge, but there's already enough fodder for a spectacular thriller novel on par with "The Big Short." A closer scrutiny of court documents reveal an underlying theme of commingled funds, overlapping and mixed finances, and inexcusable, messy bookkeeping. Bankman-Fried's entire enterprise — counting FTX, his hedge fund Alameda Research, as well as scores of smaller entities — were steeped in one another's funds. There's a chance that those who end up in the most financial pain will be everyday investors who, like some institutional investors, trusted their funds to FTX. The CIO of a top-performing fund said 2023's stock market will present a tale of two halves.
Should volumes shrink, Siluanov said Russia has two sources of additional funding: the National Wealth Fund (NWF), which accumulates state reserves, and loans. Russia now expects to use just over 2 trillion roubles ($29.24 billion) from the NWF in 2022 as total spending exceeds 30 trillion roubles, more than the year's initial plan. NWF spending in December could amount to 1.5 trillion roubles. As of Dec. 1, liquid assets in the NWF totalled 7.6 trillion roubles, or 5.7% of Russia's GDP. ($1 = 68.4000 roubles)Reporting by Darya Korsunskaya; Writing by Alexander Marrow; Editing by Gerry DoyleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The cap on Russian oil imposed by the West is hurting Moscow's export revenue, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. "Is a bigger budget deficit possible? Price risks and restrictions," Siluanov said in the latest sign yet that the price cap could be working as intended. The effort to cap Russian oil prices went into place on December 5, with the Group of Seven nations, the European Union and Austrailia participating. Russian President Vladimir Putin has tried to shrug off the price cap, arguing that the $60 level was already similar to what the Kremlin was yielding from oil sales.
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a news conference after a meeting of the State Council on youth policy in Moscow, Russia, December 22, 2022. The latest round of Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine are beginning to pinch the country's economy. However, Moscow should be able to finance the shortfall through domestic bond issuance and its rainy day fund, officials have suggested. The 27 countries of the EU also agreed in June to ban the purchase of Russian crude oil from Dec. 5. "High-frequency data show that Russian oil exports have fallen since the sanctions were introduced and the spread between Brent crude oil prices over Urals oil prices widened to a six-month high [last] week."
Russia bans oil sales to countries that accept price cap
  + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A general view of oil tanks in the Transneft-Kozmino Port near the far eastern town of Nakhodka, Russia. Russia announced on Tuesday it would ban oil sales to countries that abide by a price cap imposed this month by the West, giving its long-awaited response to the most dramatic step taken so far to limit Moscow's ability to raise funds for its war in Ukraine. Under the price cap, which took effect on Dec. 5, oil traders must promise not to pay above $60 per barrel for Russian seaborne oil to retain access to Western financing for such crucial aspects of global shipping as insurance. The Kremlin ban would halt crude oil sales to countries participating in the price cap from Feb. 1-July 1, 2023. Some analysts have said that the cap will have little immediate impact on the oil revenues that Moscow is earning, as the price for Russian oil has already fallen close to it.
Crude oil exports will be banned from Feb. 1, but the date for the oil products ban will be determined by the Russian government and could be after Feb. 1. The G7 price cap allows non-EU countries to continue importing seaborne Russian crude oil, but it will prohibit shipping, insurance and re-insurance companies from handling cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is being sold for less than the price cap. EU countries have separately implemented an embargo that prohibits them from purchasing seaborne Russian oil. Russian Urals oil traded above $56 per barrel on Tuesday, below the price cap level. Brent crude oil moved a little higher on the news and was up 1.4% at $85.1 by 1743 GMT.
Volatile rouble falls again, cutting short slight recovery
  + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
At 0706 GMT, the rouble was 0.8% weaker against the dollar at 69.74 , slipping back towards its weakest since April 28 of 72.6325, hit in the previous session. It had lost 0.4% to trade at 73.87 versus the euro and shed 1% against the yuan to 9.87 . Brent crude oil , a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was up 0.9% at $81.7 a barrel. Analysts expect the rouble to find a foothold next week when month-end taxes, which usually see Russian exporters convert FX revenues to pay local liabilities, are due. For Russian equities guide seeFor Russian treasury bonds seeReporting by Alexander Marrow; Editing by Andrew HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
"The central bank can currently now buy yuan," a banking source close to monetary authorities told Reuters. But the bank would not do so while the government continued, as now, to spend its oil and gas revenues. "(However), if next year budget revenues from the export of oil and gas exceed 8 trillion roubles, then the central bank will buy yuan," that source added. The central bank and finance ministry did not respond to requests for comment. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina last week said Russia has sufficient funds in yuan and gold.
While Russia's economy initially held up relatively well to the waves of Western sanctions imposed on it, the impact is beginning to show - in analysts' assessments, if not in those of the government. Analysts at state bank VTB (VTBR.MM) forecast the gap at an even wider 4-4.5 trillion roubles. The finance ministry sees non-energy revenue, or that related to economic activity, at 11.5% of GDP in 2023, around 7% higher than this year and on par with pre-pandemic levels. The finance ministry did not reply to a Reuters request for a comment. "I very much hope that the finance ministry will avoid outright money printing."
By 1217 GMT, the rouble was 0.9% stronger against the dollar at 57.00 , earlier hitting 56.5450, its strongest point since July 22. "For now, the rouble is supported by fears that new sanctions from the West could paralyse dollar trading in Russia," said Alor Broker in a note. STOCKS RECOVERY STUTTERSBCS Global Markets said geopolitical risks should prohibit any major leg up for Russian stock indexes, which pared early gains. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index (.IMOEX) was 1.4% lower at 1,936.0 points, heading back towards February lows hit on Monday. "In the coming days, the Russian market should trade in a narrow band - investors are likely to sit on the fence hoping for more clarity," BCS said.
Factbox: Mixed fortunes for producers as petrodollars flow
  + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Data on Saudi Arabia, Russia, Nigeria and Iraq shows how not all the big producers are cashing in on the oil price bonanza. In February 2022, oil and gas sales were $1.26 billion but NNPC remitted $0 in March. RUSSIARussia's oil and gas budget revenues in January-August increased by 43% compared with a year ago, providing authorities with room to step up public spending aimed at limiting the impact of sweeping Western sanctions. In January-August, Russia's oil and gas revenues totalled 7.3 trillion roubles ($121,7 billion), or 82% of such revenues it envisaged for 2022. But in July-August, oil and gas revenues fell year on year.
SummarySummary Companies This content was produced in Russia, where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine. The budget is seen gaining an extra 628 billion roubles in 2023, almost 700 billion roubles in 2024 and 750 billion roubles in 2025 just by increasing MET on natural gas production. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterTotal additional oil and gas tax revenues are seen at 1.28 trillion roubles next year, 1.13 trillion roubles in 2024 and 1.19 trillion roubles in 2025. It also proposes an increase in income tax on producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which will yield an additional 200 billion roubles in 2023. Deputy finance minister Alexei Sazanov said the government is aiming at skimming off windfall profits from oil and gas producers.
Fondul suveran al Rusiei îşi va vinde toate activele în dolari americani pentru a majora ponderea deţinerilor în euro, yuani şi aur, a declarat joi ministrul rus al Finanţelor, Anton Siluanov, adăugând că aceste modificări ar urma să aibă loc pe parcursul următoarelor săptămâni, transmite Reuters, citează Agerpres. Oficialul citat a precizat că, după ce vor fi operate aceste modificări, fondul suveran al Rusiei va deţine 40% din active în euro, 30% în yuani şi 20% în aur. Fondul suveran al Rusiei este fondul unde se acumulează veniturile din exporturile de petrol ale Rusiei. Conceput iniţial ca un fond care să sprijine sistemul public de pensii, fondul suveran al Rusiei avea la 1 mai anul curent active în valoare de 185,9 miliarde dolari. Decizia de a renunţa la activele în dolari în cazul fondului suveran nu va afecta cursul de schimb al rublei, a subliniat prim-vicepremierul rus, Andrei Belousov.
Persons: Rusiei îşi, Anton Siluanov, Andrei Belousov, Tim Ash, Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden Organizations: Reuters, ING, BlueBay, Management, Banca Centrală Locations: Rusiei, Agerpres, Rusia, Crimeea, Sankt Petersburg, SUA, american
Rusia va reduce sprijinul oferit de stat economiei în 2021
  + stars: | 2020-12-30 | by ( ) www.jurnal.md   time to read: +2 min
În încercarea de a consolida finanţele publice, în 2020 Rusia a dublat împrumuturile de pe piaţa locală, a majorat unele taxe şi a crescut cheltuielile statului pe măsură ce a relaxat prevederile bugetare care protejează economia de şocurile externe. Nu putem retrage toată lichiditatea de pe piaţă şi să finanţăm cheltuielile", a spus Siluanov. Rusia nu intenţionează să majoreze taxele, a spus Siluanov, repetând acelaşi mesaj cu cel transmis în ultimii ani. Cu toate acestea, în 2020 Rusia a majorat taxele pentru unele sectoare precum şi pentru ruşii care câştigă mai mult de 67.800 de dolari pe an. Ministrul Finanţelor a mai spus că revenirea preţului petrolului va ajuta Rusia să înregistreze un deficit bugetar de 3,9% din PIB în 2020, o cifră mai bună decât deficitul de 4,4% preconizat anterior.
Persons: Anton Siluanov, Finanţelor Organizations: Mondiale, Banca Mondială Locations: Rusia, Rusiei
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