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The 2020 Election Is Back
  + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
To me, that’s the only real takeaway from Super Tuesday, when President Biden and Donald J. Trump won nearly all of the delegates at stake. The general election is about to begin. On paper, Mr. Biden ought to be the favorite. Yet according to the polls, Mr. Trump begins the general election campaign in the lead. He also leads in most national polls over the last month, including a New York Times/Siena College poll last weekend.
Persons: It’s Biden, Trump, Biden, Donald J, He’s, Trump’s Organizations: New York Times, Siena, Biden, Trump Locations: Super, Michigan , Nevada , Arizona, Georgia
Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicMillions of voters in states across the country cast their ballots in the presidential primary on Super Tuesday, leaving little doubt that the November election will be a rematch between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump. But in a race that is increasingly inevitable, a New York Times/Siena College poll found a critical group of voters who are making the outcome of that race anything but certain. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explains who these voters are and why they present a particular threat to Mr. Biden.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Nate Cohn Organizations: Spotify, Trump, New York Times, Siena College
The latest national polls show President Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump slipping away. Biden's approval rating is shrinking, and Trump now leads in several polls of likely voters. AdvertisementSuper Tuesday is over — and with it any real prospect that anyone bar President Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take their party's nominations. AdvertisementFour major national polls released this week show former President Donald Trump ahead of Biden, with Trump's lead ranging from two to five points among registered voters. While the race is tight and the road to November is long, Trump appears to have the upper hand for now.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Donald Trump, Trump, , Joe Biden, Nikki Hayley, Biden, Schoen Cooperman, YouGov, — Biden, Michael Tyler Organizations: Service, Democratic, Schoen Cooperman Research, weekend's New York Times, Siena College, Fox News, CBS, Trump, Biden, Politico Locations: weekend's, Quinnipiac
As he was charged with more crimes and as the trial dates drew closer, the share of voters who said he had committed crimes ticked up. The Trump team has pushed to stall the trials as much as possible, hoping to delay any verdicts until after the general election in November. The share of Americans who say that Mr. Trump committed serious federal crimes, steadily on the rise since the fall of 2022, has declined since December, the latest New York Times/Siena College poll found. Voters across the political spectrum are now less likely to say that Mr. Trump acted criminally. Democrats are 7 percentage points less likely to say that they think Mr. Trump committed crimes, while the share of political independents who said the same is down 9 percentage points.
Persons: Donald J, Trump Organizations: Trump, New York Times, Siena College, Republicans
New York CNN —The New York Times is facing a sustained wave of backlash. It is your agenda.”The Times is, of course, far from the only news organization that has faced criticism over how it has covered the 2024 race. There is a mountain of thorny issues at the doorstep of outlets like The Times — and often there is no clear answer. For example, after the 2020 election, the conventional wisdom was that the press should largely ignore Trump’s antics. “But if Democrats lose to Trump after all THAT coverage, the fault will not be in the media, but in themselves.”
Persons: Gray, Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden’s, ” Jeff Jarvis, CUNY Craig, ” Jarvis, MSNBC can’t, newsrooms, Biden, Harry Enten, Enten, , ” Clara Jeffery, Mother Jones, , ” Bill Carter, Carter, ” Carter Organizations: New York CNN, The New York Times, The, Times, Biden, Trump, Siena College, CUNY, CUNY Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism, “ NY Times, The Times, ., CNN, MSNBC Locations: New York, American
Among registered voters nationwide, 26 percent believe the economy is good or excellent, according to polling in late February by The New York Times and Siena College. The movement occurred disproportionately among older Democrats, a constituency already likely to vote for Mr. Biden. And the share of voters saying they approve of the job Mr. Biden is doing in office has actually fallen, to 36 percent in the latest poll, from 39 percent in July. Inflation has pervaded economic sentiment since mid-2022, confronting voters daily with the price of everything from eggs to car insurance. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters in the Times/Siena poll rated the price of food and consumer goods as poor.
Persons: Biden doesn’t, Mr, Biden Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, Times Locations: Siena
Not since Theodore Roosevelt ran against William Howard Taft in 1912 have voters gotten the opportunity to weigh the records of two men who have done the job of president. And despite holding intensely and similarly critical opinions both of President Biden and of his predecessor, Americans have much more positive views of Donald J. Trump’s policies than they do of Mr. Biden’s, according to New York Times/Siena College polls. Overall, 40 percent of voters said Mr. Trump’s policies had helped them personally, compared with just 18 percent who say the same about Mr. Biden’s policies. Instead, 43 percent of voters said Mr. Biden’s policies had hurt them, nearly double the share who said the same about Mr. Trump’s policies, the latest Times/Siena poll found. That presidents are frequently remembered more fondly once they leave office is nothing new.
Persons: Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, Biden, Donald J, Biden’s, Trump Organizations: New York Times, Mr, Gallup Locations: Siena
The Fox News and Wall Street Journal surveys both showed Trump with a two point lead over Biden, 49-47 and 47-45, respectively. In the CBS News/YouGov poll, Trump led by four points, 52-48, outside the poll's 2.8% margin of error. Across all four polls, Trump had a higher favorability rating than Biden did with respondents, although some were within the surveys' margins of error. In October of 2020, a Times/Siena polls found that 52% of respondents had a favorable view of Biden, while only 43% viewed then-President Trump favorably. The Biden and Trump campaigns did not immediately reply to requests for comment from CNBC on the apparent likability shift.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, Trump, Trump's Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, Fox News, Street Journal, CBS, The Fox News, Wall Street, Trump, Times, Biden, CNBC, Street, New York Times Locations: Siena, Trump, U.S
But Trump and Biden’s turns in the spotlight this week will highlight their all-but-certain rematch, barring health crises or other surprise events. November’s election is already heaping pressure on political and electoral institutions, the Constitution and America’s fragile national unity. The move further delayed the ex-president’s federal criminal trial over election interference, which Trump – who is seeking to push off his trials past the 2024 election – touted as a win. Ahead of a likely general election clash, Trump’s appetite for testing the rule of law and the Constitution is undimmed. While leaders of both congressional chambers have reached a bipartisan spending deal, the tiny GOP House majority means any piece of legislation is a heavy lift.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden’s, Biden, Trump’s, he’s, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Nikki Haley, , . South Dakota Sen, John Thune, Mitch McConnell, he’ll, Haley, , GOP Sen, Markwayne Mullin, CNN’s Dana, there’s, wilder, “ Biden, White, , Mike Johnson Organizations: CNN, GOP, Colorado Supreme, Supreme, Super, Democratic, Trump, South Carolina Gov, Capitol, Republican, , Oklahoma, Biden, American, The New York Times, Siena College, Times, Street Journal, Hamas, MAGA ” Republicans Locations: Idaho, Missouri, Washington ,, . South Dakota, South Carolina, “ State, Greensboro , North Carolina, United States of America, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, Michigan
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. However, the laborers behind the surging industry face conditions similar to those in the country's factories, facing low wages, long hours, and risky, repetitive work, according to numerous reports. Lu, a 19-year-old Meituan delivery driver in Guangzhou, told Nikkei Asia he earned just 7 yuan per delivery, less than a dollar. In the US, delivery drivers average $17.10 per hour, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They "know it is impossible to deliver in the time expected by the platform," Tiziano Bonini from the University of Siena, who has been studying gig work in China, told the outlet.
Persons: , Lu, Meituan, Didi Chuxing, SCMP Organizations: Service, Nikkei Asia, Business, Economic Research, Wired, Bureau of Labor Statistics, China Morning, Ministry of Human Resources, Social Security, University of Siena Locations: China, Guangzhou, Guanzhou, Shanghai
Widespread concerns about President Biden’s age pose a deepening threat to his re-election bid, with a majority of voters who supported him in 2020 now saying he is too old to lead the country effectively, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College. The survey pointed to a fundamental shift in how voters who backed Mr. Biden four years ago have come to see him. A striking 61 percent said they thought he was “just too old” to be an effective president. The misgivings about Mr. Biden’s age cut across generations, gender, race and education, underscoring the president’s failure to dispel both concerns within his own party and Republican attacks painting him as senile. Seventy-three percent of all registered voters said he was too old to be effective, and 45 percent expressed a belief that he could not do the job.
Persons: Biden’s, Biden Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, Mr
The election could be determined by "double haters," or voters who view both candidates negatively. In 2016, Trump won among "double haters." These voters are often called "double haters," as they'll have to choose between two candidates that they don't like. In 2016, Trump won among "double haters," as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's once-high favorable ratings cratered during the campaign. AdvertisementIn the end, the "double haters" could end up saving Biden's presidency.
Persons: Biden, Trump, , Joe Biden, Donald Trump, It's, Hillary Clinton's, Biden —, Barack Obama — Organizations: Trump, Service, New York Times, Siena, Biden, Times, Capitol Locations: Siena, Israel
A majority of likely voters think President Biden is too old to effectively serve in the White House. In the survey, 72% of likely voters either strongly agreed or somewhat agreed that Biden is too old to effectively serve in the White House. AdvertisementAmong Biden's 2020 supporters, roughly 40% said the president could effectively serve in office, according to the Times/Siena survey. In comparison, 42% of likely voters either strongly agreed or somewhat agreed that the 77-year-old Trump is too old to effectively serve in office for a second term. In a statement, Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler said that recent polling "consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating President Biden," Politico reported.
Persons: Biden, , Joe Biden, he's, Trump, Nikki Haley, Michael Tyler, Donald Trump, Tyler Organizations: New York Times, Siena College, Service, Democratic, Senate, Oval, Siena, Times, Biden, White, Trump, GOP, underestimating, Politico Locations: Siena
The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows Trump leading Biden 48%-44% among likely voters. Overall, Trump led Biden among likely voters 48% to 44% in the Times/Siena survey. In the Times/Siena poll, Trump led Biden among women by a 47% to 46% margin among likely voters. In the Times/Siena poll, 50% of likely voters rated the economy as "poor," while only 28% of voters rated it as "good" or "excellent." Among this group, Biden led Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.
Persons: Trump, Biden, , Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley's, she's Organizations: New York Times, Siena College, Biden, Service, Times, Trump, South Carolina Gov, Democratic, Biden's Locations: Siena, Israel
With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters. Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction. More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition. So far, it is Mr. Trump who has better unified his party, even amid an ongoing primary contest.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, Democratic Locations: Times, Siena
More Americans are moving to Tuscany, a part of Italy known for medieval walled cities and wine. Some locals say it's keeping their economy alive, but others are starting to grumble. The influx of Americans, locals said, can be at once a booster of fortunes and an irritating imposition. "A lot of locals say that a place like Montepulciano cannot handle all those tourists because it's a small city," said Tudor, the jeweler. Americans, Ercolani said, "spend money and they appreciate the quality of the food and the wine that we have."
Persons: , Leanne Davis, Davis, Jon Chewning, Chewning, It's, Georgette Jupe, Knight Frank, Florence ., they're, we've, Frances Mayer's, it's, Michele Capecchi, Capecchi, Erin Lewis, Lewis, Danilo Romolini, Luca Tudor, AJ Tuscany, Tudor, who's, Sam D'Avanzo, dell'Anfiteatro, Frank Bienewald, they've, lockdowns, Jupe, Bendetta, Cantina Ercolani, Ercolani Organizations: Service, Business, Associated Press, US Department of State, Italian National Institute of Statistics, away.com, Christie's, Estate, Locals, International School of Florence Locations: Tuscany, Italy, California, Romano, Sacramento, Montepulciano, Florence, Boccheggiano, Lucca, Siena, American, Europe, Rome, Venice, Chiusi, Austin , Texas, Houston , Texas, Italian, Switzerland, Albanian
news analysisWhen it comes down to it, a lot of Democrats wish President Biden were not running this fall. Image Supporters greeted President Biden as his motorcade left the airport in Brownsville, Texas, earlier this week. Some privately say that Georgia and Arizona may be out of reach, requiring Mr. Biden to sweep Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden, 81, is just a little older than Mr. Trump, 77, and both have exhibited moments of confusion and memory lapses. After his annual physical this past week, Mr. Biden’s doctor pronounced him “fit for duty.” But polls show that more of the public is unsettled by Mr. Biden’s advancing years than Mr. Trump’s.
Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump, I’m, , David Plouffe, Barack Obama’s, , , , Biden’s, doubters, Mr, Meridith Kohut, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, ” Michael Tyler, Trump’s, Elaine Kamarck, he’s, Dean Phillips, Lyndon B, Johnson, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Kamarck, Emily Elconin, Ms, He’s, Let’s, Obama, Hillary Clinton, Jill Biden, — Joe Biden, Plouffe Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, Democratic, The New York, Biden, College, Center, Public Management, Brookings Institution, Democratic National Committee, Dean Phillips of, Super Tuesday, Democratic National Convention, America, Mr, Trump Locations: Washington, Brownsville , Texas, , Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Europe, Gaza, Dean Phillips of Minnesota, Gaza . Credit
Scientists witnessed one of the hunters, a male orca known as Starboard, single-handedly kill a 2.5-meter (8.2-foot) juvenile white shark within a two-minute time frame last year. “Over two decades of annual visits to South Africa, I’ve observed the profound impact these killer whales have on the local white shark population. A second great white shark carcass washes ashore in June near Hartenbos, South Africa. It wasn’t until 2022 that aerial footage first captured the orcas killing a great white shark, Towner said. The kill by a lone orca might have been made possible by the prey’s smaller size as a juvenile great white, according to the study.
Persons: I’ve, , Primo Micarelli, I’m, ” Micarelli, It’s, Alison Towner, Towner, didn’t, Christiaan Stopforth, ” Towner, , Dr, Simon Elwen, wasn’t Organizations: CNN, Italy’s Sharks Studies Centre, University of Siena, of Marine Science, Rhodes University, , Cape Town, Search Research, Conservation, Stellenbosch University Locations: Cape Town, South Africa, ” Port, Seal, Mossel, Cape, Hartenbos, Namibia
Democrats scored a big win in New York on Tuesday, and the numbers were extremely encouraging for the party. Across the country, Democrats are winning special elections and overperforming in elections they have predictably lost. And it's fueling optimism among Democrats looking at a challenging election year for both the White House and Congress. Last month, Democrats picked up a critical state House seat in Orlando, Florida – an important indicator of political mood in the I-4 corridor, home to many Hispanics. That doesn't necessarily translate into support for Biden, experts note, since the president often polls lower than Democrats running for lower office.
Persons: Joe Biden, Tom Suozzi, Republican Mazi Pilip, George Santos, Jim McGovern, they've, Donald Trump, Grant Reeher, Reeher, Tuesday's, Yemi Mobolade, Donna Deegan's, Jim Prokopiak, Republican Candace Cabanas, Trump, Biden, Suozzi, Organizations: Democratic, Republican, GOP Rep, White House, Biden, Syracuse University, Republicans, Senate, GOP, Gallup, Democrats, New York, Siena, Trump, New, Democratic National Committee, Biden's, Palmetto State Locations: New York, Washington, Massachusetts, Colorado Springs , Colorado, Jacksonville , Florida, U.S, Virginia, New Jersey, Kentucky, Orlando , Florida, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, New Hampshire, South Carolina, In Nevada
The special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District to succeed the infamous George Santos offers perhaps the best chance to test Democrats’ theory ahead of the presidential election. The candidate favored by Democrats won a Wisconsin Supreme Court race, which gave the more liberal justices a majority on that court. Of course, we’re now in a presidential election year, and there are also signs that these off-year results may have been pointing at something important. All the other competitive races were state elections, and voting patterns between US House and presidential elections are far more correlated than they are for state offices and presidential elections. Moreover, that 3-point Republican edge in 2022 looks a lot like Trump’s current advantage over Biden among registered voters nationally.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, George Santos, Tom Suozzi, Mazi Pilip, Biden, Santos, we’re, Donald Trump, Pilip, hasn’t, there’s Organizations: CNN — Democrats, Congressional District, Biden, Newsday, Siena, Republicans, Senate, Kentucky, Virginia Senate, Virginia House, Democrats, Wisconsin Supreme, Voters, Democratic, New York Times, Republican Locations: New York’s, Nassau, Long, Nassau County, Queens, Long Island, Virginia, Wisconsin, York
Special elections Tuesday could provide a high-stakes assessment of how suburban voters feel about the border, abortion rights, the two leading presidential candidates and whether the House of Representatives should be led by Democrats or Republicans. In another race, to fill a vacant seat in the Pennsylvania General Assembly, Democrat Jim Prokopiak is in a close race against Republican Candace Cabanas. But it’s the New York race that has the attention of election-watchers because of its amplified importance in the closely divided House of Representatives. Should Democrats prevail in the toss-up election, they'll flip the seat held by Santos and give themselves some momentum heading into November. Pilip has cast Suozzi as weak on border security, a powerful issue in a state where migrants have been transported after coming over the southern border.
Persons: George Santos, Democrat Jim Prokopiak, Republican Candace Cabanas, Santos, Don Levy, Tom Suozzi, Mazi, Levy, Pilip, Suozzi, Bill Cunningham, Tom Bonier, Bonier, Cunningham, Joe Biden Organizations: Democrats, Voters, Republican, Assembly, Democrat, York, GOP, Siena College Research Institute, Democratic, Rep, Federal, Commission Locations: , New York, Pennsylvania, York, New York
Donald J. Trump has praised Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, for his leadership of Turkey, and confused Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi. President Biden has named dead former European leaders when describing his contemporary peers, and referred to Egypt as Mexico. The episodes might have raised parallel concerns about age and mental acuity. Instead, while Mr. Biden, 81, has been increasingly dogged by doubts and concerns about his advancing years from voters, Mr. Trump, who is 77, has not felt the same political blowback. Fewer than half of voters have expressed similar misgivings about Mr. Trump.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Viktor Orban, Nikki Haley, Nancy Pelosi, Biden Organizations: New York Times, Siena College Locations: Turkey, Egypt, Mexico
For Voters, When Does Old Become Too Old?
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
When a reporter asked President Biden on Thursday night about concerns about his age, his first instinct was to reject the premise. A clear majority of Americans harbor serious doubts about it, polls show. Of all the reasons Mr. Biden has narrowly trailed Mr. Trump in the polls for five straight months, this is arguably the single most straightforward explanation. It’s what voters are telling pollsters, whether in open-ended questioning about Mr. Biden or when specifically asked about his age, and they say it in overwhelming numbers. In Times/Siena polling, even a majority of Mr. Biden’s own supporters say he’s too old to be an effective president.
Persons: Biden, Biden’s “, , Donald J, Trump, Mr, Biden’s Organizations: Times, Mr Locations: Siena
Opinion | The Challenges of an Aging President
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
Because of his age and his determination to run for a second term, President Biden is taking the American public into uncharted waters. He is the oldest person ever to serve as president, is the oldest ever to run for re-election and, if he is successful, would be 86 at the end of his tenure. Ronald Reagan, by comparison, was an unprecedented 77 when he ended his second term in 1989. A remarkably broad swath of the American public — both Mr. Biden’s supporters and his detractors — have expressed increasing doubts about his ability to serve for another five years because of his age. His assurances, in other words, didn’t work.
Persons: Biden, Ronald Reagan, Biden’s, , Nate Cohn, Biden’s ‘, , Robert K, Mr, Hur, snappish, teleprompters, Donald Trump Organizations: , Times, Mr Locations: Siena
Regardless, the Democratic Party could have avoided this altogether. But the same poll suggested that if the choice was between Trump and another Democratic candidate, 40% would probably vote for Trump and 48% would vote for the Democratic candidate. David Axelrod, a former strategist for Barack Obama, said at the time the polls would "send tremors of doubt" through the Democratic Party. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party," he wrote on X. The Democratic Party did not seriously consider putting up a candidate other than Biden in 2024, and it's left them with next to no alternative options.
Persons: , Joe Biden's, Biden, they're, Insider's Bryan Metzger doesn't, Metzger, Donald Trump, Trump, David Axelrod, Barack Obama, There's, Kamala Harris, Dean Phillips, he's, it's Organizations: Service, Democratic Party, Business, NBC News, Democratic House Member, Democratic, Republicans, NBC, Republican, The New York Times, Siena College, Trump, Reuters, CNN Locations: Minnesota
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