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☆ The single biggest piece of the economy is showing signs of deteriorating
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

While consumer spending data has been surprisingly resilient this year, there are signs that household wallets may have hit their limit. "We asked consumers about their Holiday season spending plans in July and September. The percentage of consumers who said they plan to spend less this Holiday season jumped 840 [basis points] sequentially, while the percentage who said they plan to spend more rose only 340 [basis points]. "The U.S. consumer will determine whether or not the U.S. economy glides down for a 'soft landing' in the months ahead. On Wall Street, slower consumer spending would spell particularly bad news for retailers that are already struggling.

Persons: Jay Sole, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, we've, Senyek, UBS's, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Target, Dick's Sporting Goods, UBS, Fed, Wolfe Research, Retail Locations: U.S

☆ A slowdown in the economy could cause a collapse in home prices, says Wolfe's Chris Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA slowdown in the economy could cause a collapse in home prices, says Wolfe's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the state of the markets and economy.

Persons: Chris Senyek Chris Senyek, Wolfe Organizations: Wolfe Research

☆ Turn to these stocks for high dividend growth and free cash flow yield, Wolfe says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As the economy slows down, investors will want to play defense with dividend strategies, according to Wolfe Research. "In a later cycle environment, dividend growth becomes scarce and investors tend to pay up for companies with high dividend growth," analyst Chris Senyek wrote in a note last week. Therefore, the strategy is to look for names with both high dividend growth and a high free cash flow yield, since investors look to cash flow to support further dividend growth, he said. Comcast has an average analyst rating of overweight and has nearly 10% upside to the average price target, according to FactSet. Lennar is also well-liked by analysts, with an average rating of overweight and about 20% upside to the average price target, per FactSet.

Persons: Chris Senyek, Senyek, Peacock, Morgan Stanley, Benjamin Swinburne, Lennar, Raymond James, Buck Horne, UnitedHealth, Bernstein, Lance Wilkes, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Comcast, Media, CNBC

☆ Investors should stick to the barbell approach, says Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should stick to the barbell approach, says Wolfe Research's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the sectors he sees best positioned for the second half of the year.

Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek Chris Senyek Organizations: Wolfe Research

☆ Energy is our favorite sector, says Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEnergy is our favorite sector, says Wolfe Research's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, how investors should prepare for the new month ahead, and more.

Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek Chris Senyek Organizations: Email Energy, Wolfe Research

☆ These 'dividend aristocrats' are also stock buyback leaders
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

So-called dividend aristocrats are typically defined as companies that have raised their per-share payout every year for at least 25 years. Wolfe strategist Chris Senyek said in a note to clients Wednesday that some of those aristocrats also score highly on another quality indicator — net stock buybacks. "We've found Consistent Buybacks (companies with a net share count decline for at least 10 consecutive years) and Dividend Aristocrats (25 years of consistent dividend growth) to be the top performing cash usage themes over the past 20+ years. And of the 22 analysts who cover the stock, 12 have hold ratings and one has a sell, according to Refinitiv. The Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF (PKW) , which buys companies that have reduced their share count by more than 5% over the past year, is up about 9.8% year to date.

Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek, We've, Senyek, Lowe's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Colgate, Palmolive, Companies Locations: U.S

☆ The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. What it means for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 this week. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since 2011. What's more, higher yields are typically a negative for tech and growth stocks — this year's best-performing group — as they lessen the value of their promised future earnings. Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish said Monday he expects the 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 5.25%, citing risks to the bond market on inflation expectations. US10Y YTD mountain U.S. 10-year Treasury yield YTD "The market has been consistently underpricing the risk of additional rate hikes and overpricing the speed of rate cuts," Kalish wrote.

Persons: Ned Davis Research's Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Strategas, Chris Verrone, 133bps, Verrone, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach, it's, Tom Essaye, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Chris Hayes Organizations: Treasury, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Oil prices remain big pitfall ahead for markets, says Wolfe Research's Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOil prices remain big pitfall ahead for markets, says Wolfe Research's SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the potential pitfalls in the next six months, Senyek's main concerns with oil prices, and the impact of Treasury issuance on mega-cap technology stocks.

Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek Organizations: Wolfe Research

☆ Beware of these possible blowups this earnings season, Wolfe Research warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"Our quarterly earnings quality (EQ) score is an objective way to identify potential accounting related short ideas and as a risk tool to avoid potential blow-ups in the portfolio," Senyek said. CNBC pulled six stocks from the Wolfe list across a range of sectors. Rivian made the list with an earnings quality score of just 3. Shockwave Medical , meanwhile, fits on the Wolfe list due to issues pertaining to cash flow constraints and research and development amortization. In consumer staples, Dick's Sporting Goods is on the Wolfe list with a rating of 9 out of 100.

Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Senyek, Rivian, Morgan Stanley, Dick's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC, FactSet, Shockwave, ShockWave, Centers, Medicare, Medicaid Services, Sporting Goods, Lucid

☆ The yield curve is sending a strong recessionary signal, says Wolfe's Chris Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe yield curve is sending a strong recessionary signal, says Wolfe's Chris SenyekBrian Weinstein, Morgan Stanley Investment Management global head of global fixed income, and Chris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the consumer trade trends in the back half of 2024, consumer discretionary spending towards travel, and ten year yields moving higher off of inflation.

Persons: Chris Senyek Brian Weinstein, Morgan, Chris Senyek, Wolfe Organizations: Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Wolfe Research

☆ Yield curve sending a strong recessionary signal, says Wolfe's Chris Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYield curve sending a strong recessionary signal, says Wolfe's Chris SenyekBrian Weinstein, Morgan Stanley Investment Management global head of global fixed income, and Chris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the consumer trade trends in the back half of 2024, consumer discretionary spending towards travel, and ten year yields moving higher off of inflation.

Persons: Chris Senyek Brian Weinstein, Morgan, Chris Senyek, Wolfe Organizations: Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Wolfe Research

☆ The stock market is ignoring the yield curve. History says that's a bad idea
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was trading at 4.752% on Friday, more than 100 basis points , or 1 percentage point, above the 10-year Treasury yield . The yield curve is considered inverted when short-term rates are above long-term ones, a phenomenon that has almost always predated a recession. 10Y2YS 1Y mountain The U.S. Treasury yield curve has become deeply inverted over the past year. But despite the deeply inverted curve, stocks are rallying — even the economically sensitive industrial names. He also drew a connection between the current yield curve and the market conditions in the late 1970s.

Persons: —, Chris Verrone, Verrone, Goldman Sachs, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Jerome, Senyek, Paul Volcker, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury Locations: U.S

☆ The No. 1 dividend strategy right now according to Wolfe Research
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wolfe Research strategist Chris Senyek said in a note to clients Tuesday the slowing U.S. economy should push investors toward stocks that reliably throw off cash. One simple way for investors to buy into the aristocrats is the ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL). NOBL YTD mountain The NOBL ETF is underperforming the broader market in 2023. A similar fund is the SPDR S & P Dividend ETF (SDY) , which tracks an index of stocks in the S & P 1500 Index that have increased dividends for at least 20 consecutive years. That fund weights stocks by yield and has a distribution yield of 3.04%, also according to FactSet.

Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Senyek, NOBL, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Cardinal Health Locations: U.S, NOBL, Albemarle, Pentair

☆ Here's what's next for bank stocks after the failure of First Republic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

First Republic's demise was the third regional bank failure since early March, when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank folded within days of each other. There is cautious optimism on Wall Street that First Republic will be the last failure of this period. However, reports from other regional banks weren't nearly as dire, with many reporting that deposits had stabilized and were growing again. However, the failure of First Republic could cause some more turbulence, at least in the short-term, for both deposits and bank stocks. "We don't believe that regional banks are completely out of the woods," Wolfe Research chief investment strategist Chris Senyek said in a note to clients on Monday.

☆ Stocks won't see sustainable rally without clarity on inflation, says NYU's Aswath Damodaran
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStocks won't see sustainable rally without clarity on inflation, says NYU's Aswath DamodaranAswath Damodaran, professor of finance at NYU's Stern School Of Business, and Chris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss tech companies carrying the market, disparities between old and young tech, and the macroeconomic picture.

☆ This style of dividend 'aristocrat' ETF could outperform going into a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

As such, we recommend buying Dividend Aristocrats, which are companies that have a long track record of increasing dividends," Senyek said. Additionally, Dividend Aristocrats' outperformance has tended to persist during the initial stages of recoveries, which also tend to be highly uncertain environments," he added. One fund that tracks the group directly is the ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) . Those funds have a total return of 1.7%% and 3%, respectively, so far this year. Another similar product is the iShares Core Dividend ETF (DIVB) .

☆ Short these stocks with deteriorating earnings, Wolfe Research says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wolfe Research is recommending a basket of companies to short ahead of their quarterly earnings. AI YTD mountain C3.ai has one of the worst earnings quality ratings on the Wolf Research list. Elsewhere, Hasbro also has one of the lower earnings quality ratings on the Wolfe scale, earnings just three out of 100. The Wolfe report showed a sequential earnings quality decline of more than 82%. SPWR YTD mountain Although SunPower has a higher earnings quality rating on the Wolfe Research list, the company still has high short interest according to the report.

☆ 'The numbers need to come down,' bears say ahead of the next round of earnings reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Earnings season does not start until April 14, when the big banks begin reporting, but already the bears are saying expectations are too high. One of the issues that drives bears crazy is the refusal of analysts to slash earnings estimates for 2023. This is exactly what happened during the big selloff that culminated in the drop in the S & P in October of last year. These estimates from analysts are known as "bottoms-up" estimates, because the estimates come from an analysis of individual companies. I'll get into this more as we get closer to earnings season, but here's an example from Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek.

☆ Nasdaq's rip higher looks like a bear market rally, says Wolfe's Chris Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNasdaq's rip higher looks like a bear market rally, says Wolfe's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research, and CNBC's Mike Santoli join 'The Exchange' to discuss the two sides of the bear and bull case, address recession fears, and predict the Fed's next steps.

Wolfe Research warned investors to avoid these low-quality stocks that could blow up. Using fourth-quarter corporate results, Wolfe Research identified potentially underperforming stocks using its earnings quality score, which considers several variables including sentiment, valuation metrics and various financial ratios. From this group, Wolfe Research found the names in the bottom 10% of its earnings quality score. Wolfe Research also identified names with high short interest relative to the company's sector. Wolfe also found the company has the lowest earnings quality score of all energy stocks tracked at just 2.

☆ The stock market is amazingly in the green since the bank crisis broke out. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Despite the banking crisis, the S & P 500 is actually higher than it was the day before Silicon Valley Bank's troubles dragged the banking sector down. Crisis causes Fed to 'grip the wheel' The bank crisis is also seemingly affecting the Federal Reserve 's policy of raising interest rates, experts said. Yet on Wednesday, the Fed announced a 25 percentage point increase , while expressing caution about the banking crisis. "The banking crisis basically caused the Fed to grip the wheel with two hands and take a more cautious approach to its rate tightening policy," Stovall said. "Other areas of the economy, including larger companies who may maintain access to bank credit and public markets (and perhaps consumer relative to commercial borrowers) might then escape with less negative impacts," he said.

☆ Playing defense as market tumbles — 10 stocks that outperform in recessions
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

As the market tumbles and recession risks rise, it's time to start playing defense and buying stocks that are poised to outperform in the later innings of the U.S. market cycle, according to Wolfe Research. Bond yields have fallen, oil prices have steeply dropped and stock market volatility has surged. With that in mind, here are 10 of the stocks that Wolfe Research believes outperform the rest of the market during a recession. It has an estimated 2023 P/E of 24.7x and an EV/2023 estimated EBITDA of 16.4x. The drugmaker has an estimated 2023 P/E of 37.2x and an EV/2023 estimated EBITDA of 28.7x.

☆ Beware these stocks with high leverage as a potential recession looms, Wolfe Research says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Concerns of an impending recession have become paramount in corporate America after the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in a bid to cool inflation. Given this environment, Senyek screened for stocks that could be most vulnerable as interest rates rise and the economy slows. Norwegian Cruise Line also made the list, but for its estimated floating debt rate. TransUnion also raised a red flag for its 98% estimated floating debt rate. Despite the floating debt rate and lackluster earnings forecast, others are still optimistic about the credit reporting agency.

☆ Stay away: These stocks are expensive and most vulnerable to a consumer slowdown, Wolfe Research says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Consumer spending is likely to turn negative following "a series of rolling recessions," and there are several vulnerable stocks that investors may want to steer clear of in the months ahead, according to Wolfe Research. Most of them have highly volatile gross margins, leaving them vulnerable to disappointing consumer spending. It's followed in volatility by Peloton , with gross margin volatility of 31%. Its gross margin volatility is 13%. DraftKings and Las Vegas Sands are also near the top in terms of gross margin volatility, at 26% and 25%, respectively.

☆ There's at least a 20 percent downside for stocks from here, says Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's at least a 20 percent downside for stocks from here, says Wolfe Research's Chris SenyekChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the markets and trading day.

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