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☆ Stagflation in fourth quarter may force Fed to hold rates steady, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStagflation in fourth quarter may force Fed to hold rates steady, strategist saysAlthea Spinozzi, senior fixed income strategist at Saxo Bank, discusses the rise in Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve's next steps.

Persons: Althea Spinozzi Organizations: Fed, Saxo Bank, Federal

☆ 1 in 3 chance of Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter amid stagflation, CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email1 in 3 chance of Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter amid stagflation, CIO saysSteen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo Bank, discusses consumer spending trends, treasury yields and the Fed rate outlook.

Persons: Steen Jakobsen Organizations: Saxo Bank

☆ Oil steady as demand woes from weak economic data offset by OPEC+ cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HOUSTON, July 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Monday in choppy trading as demand woes after weak economic data from top consumers the United States and China were offset by expected crude supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. "Oil traders may be cautious ahead of the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) and China's slew of economic data later this week," CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said of inflation data due on Wednesday. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. However, crude prices could rebound after producer group OPEC+ announced plans to reduce supply further, Teng added. Money managers stepped up net long positions in oil futures and options contracts in the latest weekly data.

Persons: Brent, Tina Teng, Loretta Mester, Teng, Ole Hansen, Hansen, Arathy Somasekhar, Noah Browning, Florence Tan, Emily Chow, Alexander Smith, David Goodman, Peter Graff Organizations: . West Texas, U.S . CPI, Consumer, CMC, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank, Cleveland, OPEC, International Energy Agency, Saxo Bank, Money, Thomson Locations: United States, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, ., Saudi, WTI, Brent

BENGALURU, July 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies for the rest of the year despite expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials as the U.S. economy stays resilient, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. "The tightness of the U.S. labour market may help the economy and the dollar in the very short term," said Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale. "Even if we see (interest) rate convergence, it seems unlikely a new major euro uptrend will start without stronger growth." Indeed, a majority of common contributors showed the dollar view against most major currencies for the coming six months has been either upgraded or kept unchanged from a month ago. "The dollar is getting a tailwind from the Fed ... the current strength is on a repricing of the Fed (rate) higher," said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kit Juckes, Jonas Goltermann, Sterling, John Hardy, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Srivastava, Sarupya Ganguly, Anitta Sunil, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Societe Generale, Futures Trading Commission, Capital Economics, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Europe, Asia, Britain, Bengaluru

☆ Explainer: Why are OPEC+ supply cuts failing to boost oil prices?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Members Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's biggest oil exporters, deepened oil supply cuts on Monday in an effort to send prices higher. Here are the main reasons why OPEC+ output cuts are failing to significantly lift oil prices:CONCERNS ABOUT WEAK DEMANDData from China has sparked fears that the economic recovery from coronavirus lockdowns in the world's second-largest oil consumer is losing steam. The Energy Information Administration projects U.S. crude oil production will climb by 720,000 bpd to 12.61 million bpd this year, above a prior forecast increase of 640,000 bpd. This compares with around 10 million bpd as recently as 2018. LESS BULLISHIn 2020, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned traders against betting heavily in the oil market, saying those who gamble on the oil price would be "ouching like hell".

Persons: Brent, Carsten Fritsch, Tamas Varga, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, pare, Ole Hansen, Maha El Dahan, Ahmad Ghaddar, Mark Potter Organizations: of, Petroleum, Eurasia Group, U.S . Federal Reserve, International Energy Agency, OPEC, Energy Information Administration, Saudi Energy, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: DUBAI, LONDON, OPEC, Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, Japan, U.S, Eurasia, WTI

☆ Futures rise ahead of inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Nike slides after downbeat Q1 sales outlookApple up as Citigroup starts coverage with "buy"May PCE data due at 8:30 a.m. "The backdrop for equities is still no recession, inflation is sticky and financial conditions are still loose. "Key risks ahead for U.S. equities remain potential expanded export controls on AI chips and the upcoming Q2 earnings season." The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure index (PCE) for May, will be released at 8:30 a.m. Adobe (ADBE.O) slipped 0.8% after UK's competition regulator ordered a second round of review of its deal to buy Figma.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Peter Garnry, Jefferies, Sruthi Shankar, Johann M, Shinjini Organizations: Nike, Apple, Citigroup, Dow, Federal Reserve, Saxo Bank, Nasdaq, Reuters, Traders, Dow e, Nike Inc, Apple Inc, Carnival Corp, Thomson Locations: U.S, North America, Bengaluru

Goldman Sachs said this week that rising interest rates would remain a "persistent drag" on oil. "There's been little sign of weakness in China's oil demand even if the general reopening boost has disappointed some investors. Global oil demand is forecast to grow between 1 to 2 million barrels per day (bpd), as per the poll. "Once these deficits become visible in on-land oil inventories, we expect prices to trend higher," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Respondents also largely agreed that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would take measures to keep the floor for oil prices at $80.

Persons: Brent, Ole Hansen, Saxo, Goldman Sachs, There's, Ian Moore, Bernstein, Giovanni Staunovo, Seher, Arpan Varghese, Noah Browning, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: bbl, International Energy Agency, Saudi, of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: China, Saudi, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Aramco, India, Moscow, Turkey, Bengaluru

☆ Oil pares gains as rate hike fears offset US inventory drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Benchmark Brent crude prices are down more than 15% this year as rising interest rates hit investor appetite, while China's economic recovery has faltered after several months of softer-than-expected consumption and other data. "For now, the market remains stuck with demand concerns weighing," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "Overall, the commodity sector, including crude oil, is suffering from risk adversity amid China growth worries and U.S. data strength pointing to higher rates," he said. The Energy Information Administration's official supply report is due out at 1430 GMT. Higher interest rates can weigh on economic activity and oil demand.

Persons: Brent, Ole Hansen, Oil, Christine Lagarde, Tamas Varga, Mohi Narayan, Jason Neely, David Evans Organizations: Oil, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Saxo Bank, American Petroleum Institute, Energy, European Central Bank, ECB, PVM, Saudi, Thomson Locations: contango, China

☆ Oil heads for weekly gain as supply cuts balance demand concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Bank of England is set to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point next week. Rising interest rates could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. However, both oil benchmarks were heading for a small weekly gain after declines in the past two weeks. Oil gained about 3% on Thursday on hopes of increasing Chinese demand. China's refinery throughput rose in May to its second-highest total on record and Kuwait Petroleum Corp's CEO expects Chinese demand to keep climbing during the second half.

Persons: Ole Hansen, Alex Lawler, Sudarshan Varadhan, Stephanie Kelly, David Goodman Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal, Saxo Bank, Brent, West Texas, Oil, Kuwait Petroleum, Organization of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: Bank, OPEC, Brent, Saudi Arabia

☆ European Central Bank more hawkish than expected, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEuropean Central Bank more hawkish than expected, strategist saysJohn Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank, weighs in on the European Central Bank's latest interest rate decision and assesses what it could mean for global currency markets, saying better economic outcomes are needed across Europe for the euro to turn higher.

Persons: John Hardy Organizations: Central Bank, Saxo Bank, Central Locations: Europe

Media tycoon Berlusconi founded Forza Italia when he entered politics in 1994. "I expect Brothers of Italy to be attractive to Forza Italia members," Lorenzo De Sio, a politics professor at LUISS University in Rome, said. The relationship between Berlusconi and Meloni repeatedly came under strain since they won general elections together last year. That triggered a long process which ended up in a merger between Forza Italia and MSI's heir Alleanza Nazionale in a single party. Althea Spinozzi, fixed income strategist at Saxo Bank, said the risk associated with investing in Italy can decrease with a downsized Forza Italia.

Persons: Marina, Silvio Berlusconi, Giorgia Meloni, Berlusconi, Matteo Salvini's, Meloni's, Giuliano Cazzola, Lorenzo De, Meloni, Alleanza, Brothers, Sergio Mattarella, Yara, Eugenio Pizzimenti, Antonio Tajani, Pizzimenti, Althea Spinozzi, Marina Berlusconi, Angelo Amante, Giuseppe Fonte, Antonella Cinelli, Angus MacSwan Organizations: Forza Italia, Media, Matteo Salvini's League, Forza Italia's, Forza, Reuters, Analysts, LUISS University, Italian Social Movement, Berlusconi's, Alleanza Nazionale, REUTERS, Pisa University, Union, Saxo Bank, Meloni, Thomson Locations: ROME, Italy, Rome, Ukraine, Brussels

☆ Oil falls as economic fears overshadow Saudi output cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures were down $1.50, or 1.96%, to $75.21 a barrel by 1046 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.47, or 2.04%, to $70.68 a barrel. Backwardation in Brent crude oil futures — where the current value is higher than in later months — steepened after the weekend announcement with the six-month spread hitting a five-week high of $2.20/bbl on Monday. The U.S. services sector barely grew in May as new orders slowed, and market participants are waiting to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike or hold interest rates in June. Higher interest rates could curb energy demand.

Persons: Brent, Backwardation, — steepened, Ole Hansen, Tamas Varga, PVM, Rowena Edwards, Arathy Somasekhar, Trixie Yap, Sriraj Kalluvila, Jason Neely Organizations: EIA, LONDON, Saudi, Brent, . West Texas, Citi, bbl, PMI, Saxo Bank, The, U.S . Federal, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Thomson Locations: Saudi Arabia, OPEC, U.S, Europe, China, Brent, The U.S, London, Houston, Singapore

☆ Oil prices slide 5% amid skepticism the debt-ceiling deal holds
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices tumbled Tuesday as worries about demand for the commodity accelerated. Two of nine Republicans on the House Rules Committee have signaled opposition to the debt ceiling deal. US and international oil prices each dropped to their lowest prices since May 5. The Fiscal Responsibility Act, if passed, would limit US baseline spending for two years and raise the debt ceiling into 2025. "Oil prices remain stuck while awaiting the response from Congress on the debt ceiling deal," Saxo Bank strategists said in a note early Tuesday.

Persons: —, Brent, Price, Kevin McCarthy Organizations: West Texas, Service, Republican, White House, Caucus, Politico, CNBC, Saxo Bank, Treasury Department Locations: Saudi, Brent

☆ Explainer: Why is OPEC+ cutting oil output?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A global recession could lead to lower oil prices. Oil prices have also come under pressure from concerns about the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and fears of a debt default in the world's biggest oil consumer. Surprise production cutsPUNISHING SPECULATORSThe cut will also punish oil short sellers or those who bet on oil price declines. The United States, which released most stocks, said it would buy back some oil in 2023, but later ruled it out. OPEC observers also say the group needs nominal oil prices to be higher because of money printing by the West in recent years has lowered the value of the U.S. dollar.

Persons: Brent, Alexander Novak, PVM Oil's Tamas Varga, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, Joe Biden's, Ahmad Ghaddar, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Barbara Lewis Organizations: OPEC, Saudi Energy, Standard Chartered, International Energy Agency, West, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Russia, Vienna, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russian, Brent, Washington, Ukraine, United States, U.S

☆ Gold recovers as debt-ceiling talks make little apparent progress
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices rebounded from their earlier losses on Tuesday, as yields fell and the dollar retreated from its highs, while another round of U.S. debt ceiling talks ended without much progress. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,975.39 per ounce, after shedding as much as 0.8% earlier. Gold rose from session lows on reports of further negotiations over raising the debt ceiling, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Wall Street's main indexes fell and the dollar index backed off from its session high, while benchmark 10-year yields fell from a two-month peak. Gold tends to lose appeal when rates rise and push up bond yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion.

Persons: Daniel Pavilonis, Joe Biden, Pavilonis, Bullion, Ole Hansen, Neel Kashkari, Silver Organizations: Futures, Republicans, Saxo Bank ., Tuesday U.S, Investors, Federal

Summary Oil rallies after three straight weekly declinesGoldman Sachs says demand fears 'overblown'US inflation data and OPEC report in focus this weekSINGAPORE, May 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose over 2% on Monday as U.S. recession fears eased and some traders saw crude's three-week slide on demand worries as overdone. Brent crude was up $1.57, or 2.1%, at $76.87 a barrel by 11:19 a.m. EDT (1519 GMT). Brent had finished last week with a decline of about 5.3% while U.S. crude plunged by 7.1% even after Friday's rebound. "The market is less worried about a banking crisis that could lead to a recession and hurt demand," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. OPEC's latest monthly oil market report is due on Thursday, providing an updated reading on the demand and supply outlook.

☆ Oil climbs more than 2% as recession fears begin to fade
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices rose over 2% on Monday as U.S. recession fears eased and some traders saw crude's three-week slide on demand worries as overdone. Brent had finished last week with a decline of about 5.3% while U.S. crude plunged by 7.1% even after Friday's rebound. Banking concerns have plagued the market recently after the collapse of three major regional banks. "The market is less worried about a banking crisis that could lead to a recession and hurt demand," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. OPEC's latest monthly oil market report is due on Thursday, providing an updated reading on the demand and supply outlook.

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 3, 2023. Major U.S. stock indexes dropped over 1% on Tuesday as regional bank shares tumbled on renewed fears over the financial system and as investors tried to gauge how much longer the Fed may need to hike interest rates. Estee Lauder Cos Inc (EL.N) slid 21.3% as the MAC lipstick maker forecast a bigger drop in full-year sales and profit. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners for a 2.11-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.25-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 19 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 30 new highs and 76 new lows.

Disruptions may hit mine output, leading analysts to trim a forecast surplus for this year to 133,000 tonnes from 165,000 tonnes of oversupply in the previous poll. Analysts have marked up their estimates for an aluminium market surplus this year to 113,500 tonnes from 80,535 tonnes forecast in January. "Due to relentless mined nickel supply growth in Indonesia, and its broad-based nickel-bearing exports, we remain longer-term bears on the global nickel price," said Tom Price at Liberum. Analysts expect LME cash nickel prices to average $22,273 a tonne in the third quarter, down 11% from current levels. They also expect the global nickel market to see a surplus of 112,000 tonnes this year and an oversupply of 89,500 tonnes in 2024.

☆ Oil drops as economic growth concerns offset OPEC+ cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed, which meets on May 2-3, is expected to increase interest rates by another 25 basis points. The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Monday, making oil more expensive for other currency holders. "The failure to reach more solid ground above $80.50 in Brent points to continued selling interest amid the well known growth/demand concerns," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank. "We believe the oil market will be in deficit through the remainder of the second quarter" following the OPEC+ cuts, said Baden Moore, head of commodity and carbon strategy at National Australia Bank. Reporting by Katya Golubkova; Editing by Kenneth MaxwellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Oil prices dropped almost 4% on Wednesday as jitters about a U.S. economic downturn overshadowed a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. crude inventories. The OPEC+ group of leading oil producers does not see the need for further oil output cuts but is always able to adjust its policy, Novak said. Data on Thursday showed U.S. economic growth slowed by more than expected in the first quarter, although jobless claims fell in the week ending April 22. Oil prices were also pressured as weak risk sentiment spread from the banking sector after First Republic Bank's continued slump. Analysts see weak refinery margins as a major contributor to the recent oil price decline, with oil broker PVM's Tamas Varga pointing to heating oil and gasoil as "the main possible culprit for the outsized weakness".

☆ Big copper deals to take centerstage in Santiago as demand heats up
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Lundin Mining Corp (LUN.TO) is paying nearly $1 billion for control of Chile's Caserones copper mine despite ongoing political uncertainty in the country. "The green transformation theme remains a strong tailwind for copper, the king of green metals," Saxo Bank strategist Ole Hansen told Reuters. Global copper demand expected to reach 53 million tonnes annually by 2053 - more than double current levels - but supply is still expected to fall short, according an S&P Global (SPGI.N) study. And Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM.TO) last week said it would pay $439 million for rival Copper Mountain Mining Corp (CMMC.TO). Neighboring Peru, the world's second-largest copper producer, also expects to boost production this year.

Summary Dollar index on course for fifth weekly lossesEuro touches two-month highLONDON/SINGAPORE, April 13 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a two-month low on Thursday after data showed U.S. inflation slowed sharply in March, bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign is either already finished or will be by May. The dollar dropped after the data was released and weakened further on Thursday, helping the euro rise 0.27% to a two-month high of $1.102. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major peer, was last down 0.2% at 101.28, its lowest since the start of February. John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank, said the inflation data "left the market with not much to go on". He said he expects the dollar to grind lower from here as inflation cools and the economy slows.

☆ Futures edge higher ahead of inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.19%, S&P 0.13%, Nasdaq 0.06%April 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Wednesday as investors awaited key inflation data and minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting for clues on whether U.S. interest rates are near their peak. The Labor Department data, which will be published at 8:30 a.m. US inflation, Fed rates and marketsMinutes from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting in March will be watched closely by investors later in the day for fresh clues on the trajectory of interest rates. The Fed in March raised rates by 25 bps and signaled it was on the verge of pausing further rate hikes. ET, Dow e-minis were up 64 points, or 0.19%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.25 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 8 points, or 0.06%.

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - As "fragmentation" of politics and economics becomes the new buzzword for a world that appears to be splintering into blocs, the related costs of the new order are only now being totted up. Corporate rethinking of foreign direct investment (FDI) - bricks-and-mortar developments overseas as well as mergers and acquisitions - would make the hit even scarier. And if FDI fragmentation is defined by a permanent rise in cross-bloc barriers to imported investment inputs, the IMF said developments could cut world output by 2% in the long term. "Fragmentation of the global economy will likely put inflation at a higher structural level, and the cost of capital will likely go up, squeezing low-quality and leveraged companies." Reuters GraphicsBIS chart on global trade as share of GDPBCG projections on world trade to 2031The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

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