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☆ The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. Here's what that means for your wallet
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

watch nowThe Federal Reserve left its target federal funds rate unchanged for the second consecutive time Wednesday. What the federal funds rate means for youThe federal funds rate, which is set by the central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. To a certain extent, many households have been shielded from the brunt of the Fed's rate hikes so far, House said. As the federal funds rate rose, the prime rate did as well, and credit card rates followed suit. If the 10-year yield stays near 5%, federal student loan interest rates could increase again when they reset in the spring, costing student borrowers even more in interest.

Persons: Brett House, that's, Sung Won Sohn, Sohn, bode, Greg McBride, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's, Tiffany Hagler, Bankrate, Jacob Channel Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Columbia Business School, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Treasury, Geard, Bloomberg, Getty, Auto Locations: Larchmont , New York

☆ Walmart is at work on a new degree-free message about getting hired at its corporate headquarters
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Bob Woods | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

"In prior years, people would pursue a cybersecurity college degree," Stomski said. At the same time, Wildavsky stressed that being dismissive about the value of a college degree is a mistake. "This is not about getting rid of college degrees," Stomski said, and she added that many of Walmart's corporate jobs will still require them. Examples of Walmart corporate roles that will not require college degrees including positions in operations and merchandising, but Stomski declined to be more specific. In August 2022, Walmart began eliminating around 200 corporate jobs as part of a restructuring effort amid a more challenging economic environment.

Persons: Terra, Stomski, We're, Lorraine Stomski, Julie Gehrki, Ben Wildavsky, Wildavsky, it's, —, OpenAI, We've, Colleen Ammerman, Walmart's Organizations: Walmart, Walmart Inc, Terra Fondriest, Bloomberg, Getty, Target, Southern New Hampshire University, University of Arizona, University of Denver, Google, IBM, Tesla, GM, Accenture, University of Virginia, College, Marines, LinkedIn, Harvard Business School Locations: Bentonville , Arkansas, workforces, U.S, Minnesota

☆ Anita A. Summers, Economist, Dies at 98; Brought Rigor to Public Policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Clay Risen | More About Clay Risen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Anita A. Summers, an economist at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania who injected quantitative rigor into a wide variety of public policy topics, including zoning, education and tax incentives, died on Sunday at her home in Gladwyne, Pa. She was 98. Her son Lawrence H. Summers, the economist and former secretary of the Treasury, confirmed the death. Though she spent much of her career in academia, Mrs. Summers was far from a hidebound intellectual. She was the founding chairwoman of Wharton’s public policy and management department, the first of its kind at a business school. (It is now called the department of business economics and public policy.)

Persons: Anita, Summers, Lawrence H Organizations: Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Treasury, Wharton, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Locations: Gladwyne, Pa

☆ Only 19% of Americans increased their emergency savings in 2023. That ‘puts households in a bind,’ expert says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

It's becoming increasingly difficult for Americans to set money aside. "Rising prices and high household expenses have been the predominant impediments to boosting emergency savings," said Greg McBride, Bankrate's chief financial analyst. "When expenses increase faster than income, that puts households in a bind." But that cash reserve is now largely gone after consumers gradually spent their excess savings from the Covid-19 pandemic years. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's most aggressive interest rate-hiking cycle in four decades made it costlier to borrow.

Persons: It's, Greg McBride, Sung Won Sohn Organizations: Finance, Social Security, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics

☆ Bond term premiums are now a focus for the Fed. What are they?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A bond yield can be decomposed into three elements: Expectations for what the Fed does with short-term rates; a premium for expected inflation; and a term premium. Term premiums cannot be directly observed but a number of models for them exist. A New York Fed model shows the term premium for the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has climbed by more than a percentage point since the start of the third quarter. "A sudden rise in term premiums to more normal levels poses a downside risk to long-maturity Treasury prices, which could in turn affect the prices of other assets," the Fed said in its July 2017 Monetary Policy Report, a period during which term premiums were below zero. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate."

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Jerome Powell nodded, Lorie Logan, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Economic, of New, Reuters, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics, Dallas, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, of New York, York

☆ A recession may still be in the forecast, experts say. Here's how to make sure you're prepared
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Jamie Kelter Davis | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesA recession has been in the forecast for much of 2023. "A recession is obviously going to happen at some point," said Jack Manley, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. Those factors may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, Aleman said. Experts say the key is to automate your savings so you do not even see the money in your paycheck. Another advantage to saving now: Rising interest rates mean the potential returns on that money are the highest they have been in 15 years.

Persons: Jamie Kelter Davis, Jack Manley, —, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Aleman, Manley, Barry Glassman, CNBC.com, Glassman, Mark Hamrick, Matt Schulz, Schulz Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Asset Management, National Association for Business Economics, Finance, Federal Reserve, Wealth Services, CNBC's, Bankrate Locations: Chicago

In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."

Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley

☆ Treasury-bond rout eases as more Fed officials hint further rate hikes may not be necessary
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bond yields plunged lower Tuesday following comments from Fed officials about a rate hike reprieve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he sees no need for further rate hikes to cool down the economy. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rising term premiums on bonds may do the job of rate hikes. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS Treasurys rallied Tuesday, taking a breather after a blistering sell-off, as more Federal Reserve officials suggested further rate hikes may not be needed. More than a year and a half of steady rate hikes has brought the fed funds rate to a 22-year high.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, —, Bostic, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Atlanta Fed, Dallas, Service, Federal Reserve, American Bankers Association, National Association for Business Locations: Israel, Dallas

☆ US stocks jump as bond yields tumble after Fed officials hint rate hikes may be over
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bond yields tumbled after Fed officials hinted that the end of rate hikes may be near. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks climbed Tuesday, while bond yields dropped following comments from key Fed officials that hinted at the end of rate hikes. Logan, meanwhile, noted that high bond yields may do the trick as far as cooling down the economy.

Persons: —, Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, Bostic Organizations: Dow, Treasury, Service, Investors, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, American Bankers Association, National Association for Business, Nasdaq Locations: Israel, Logan, Dallas

“I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” Jefferson said in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics. The remarks by Jefferson and earlier by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, one of the Fed system's more influential voices on financial markets, caused investors to undercut the likelihood of further Fed rate increases. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," said Logan, who has been among the more hawkish officials in supporting the need for continued rate increases. Since the Fed last raised its policy interest rate a quarter of a percentage point in July, long-term bond yields have risen a full percentage point, a fast rate of change for a massive market. A rise in the so-called “term premium," if it proves persistent, could put an enduring drag on the economy and perhaps give the Fed less reason to raise its own policy rate.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, ” Jefferson, Jefferson, Lorie Logan, FedWatch, Gregory Daco, Logan, policymaker, Chris Varvares, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Nick Zieminski Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, Treasury, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, New York Fed, Fed, P, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jefferson, Israel

"If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," Logan said. The Dallas Fed president said the economy has been stronger than she had expected, as has been the labor market, and that inflation was still too high despite progress in lowering it. But because Logan ran the New York Fed's bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what's driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves. "The expectation of lower Federal Reserve asset holdings over time implies that other investors will need to hold more long-duration securities, which appears to be one factor among the many contributing to higher term premiums," Logan said. Figuring out how much of the higher long-term rates is due to higher term premiums is complex, she added.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Mary Daly, Julia Coronado, Lorie, she's, Krishna Guha, Guha, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics, Market, San Francisco Fed, Evercore ISI, Dallas Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, York

"The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like," he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently. "The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?" "The conflict poses a risk of higher oil prices, and risks to both inflation and the growth outlook," said Karim Basta, chief economist at III Capital Management, leaving the Fed to sort out whether higher prices or slower growth is the greater concern. To the extent the Israeli war with Hamas heightens concerns about the global economy it could reverse that trend if capital rushes towards the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, as often happens at times of potential crisis. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ronen, It’s, Agustin Carstens, Carl Tannenbaum, Karim Basta, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve, Northern Trust, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, III Capital Management, Fed, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, Ukraine, U.S, Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Suez

☆ BIS' Carstens: too early to say how new war will impact global outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

DALLAS, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustin Carstens on Sunday said it's "too early to say" how the newly erupted conflict in Israel will affect the global economy still struggling with post-pandemic high inflation. "Traditionally this affects the price of oil and can affect the stock market, but it’s too early to say," Carstens told the National Association for Business Economics in answer to a question after a talk in which he emphasized the need for central banks to keep interest rates relatively high "for a while" to beat inflation. "We need to continue being very firm." Reporting by Ann Saphir; editing by Diane CraftOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Agustin Carstens, it's, Carstens, Ann Saphir, Diane Craft Organizations: DALLAS, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson Locations: Israel

☆ US economy added 336,000 jobs last month, almost twice what was expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The US economy added an estimated 336,000 jobs last month, blowing expectations out of the water, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. In September, leisure and hospitality helped drive job growth higher, with 96,000 jobs added. Today’s headline jobs number — that surprising 336,000 net job gain — is an initial estimate that will be revised twice more. The surprising September jobs report, however, didn’t continue that streak. August’s second look has job growth now at 227,000 for the month, an increase of 40,000.

Persons: ”, Sung, Soh, Joe Biden, “, it’s, ” Biden, Andrew Patterson, ” Patterson, they’ve, Jim McCoy, we’re, ” Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor’s, ” Julia Pollak, didn’t, ” Diane Swonk, — CNN’s Tami Luhby Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, of Labor Statistics, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, BLS, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Vanguard, Fed, Administration, Children, Families, Nationwide, Century, CNN Locations: Minneapolis, United States

☆ We thought we avoided recession. Turns out we're not in the clear yet.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US economy showed signs of a soft landing this summer. In September, the Federal Reserve buoyed those hopes by keeping interest rates unchanged for the first time since the first quarter of 2022. At the start of the rate increase, many borrowers, such as existing homeowners, had low mortgage interest rates locked in. As the economist David Rosenberg says, it typically takes six months for a recession to hit the economy after interest rates increase by this much. AdvertisementAdvertisementAnd while Powell said a soft landing is "possible," he also warned that it could be decided by factors "outside our control."

Persons: —, Taylor, Oppenheimer, Morgan, David Rosenberg, Eric Thayer, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Costco, Bloomberg, Gas Locations: Monterey Park , California

Jae Byun, 31, earns around $115,000 teaching math and coaching basketball at a high school in Orange County, California. Now seven years in, the 31-year-old earned $114,099 for the 2021-2022 academic year between teaching and coaching during the school year, teaching summer school and coaching over the summer in California's Fullerton school district. My parents taught me the value of money and that money doesn't grow on trees. Jae Byun"My parents taught me the value of money and that money doesn't grow on trees," Byun says. For the two summer months, he taught summer school and coached summer programs.

Persons: Jae Byun, didn't, Byun, Tristan Pelletier, Orange County Byun, I've, they've, weren't, Byun didn't, he's, Roth Organizations: CNBC, University of California, UC Irvine, California State University, Fullerton, Concordia University, U.S, National Education Association, Roth IRA Locations: Irvine, Orange County , California, California's Fullerton, Orange County, South Korea, Fullerton , California, U.S, California, Mississippi

☆ The US consumer is starting to crack
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

AdvertisementAdvertisementEven as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, a good job market and strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving. However, there are growing signs that the strength of the US consumer is starting to crack. Earlier this month, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected. At the start of the rate increase, borrowers, like existing homeowners, had low mortgage interest rates locked in. Even dollar stores are starting to feel the pressure of more measured spending after initially benefitting from inflation as wealthier people looked for more value.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, It'll, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, National Association of Business Economics, Bank of America, Conference Board, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Costco Locations: Michigan

☆ Two key Fed officials express support for keeping interest rates high
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Two Federal Reserve policymakers expressed support Friday for keeping interest rates elevated as the battle against too-high inflation continues. In separate speeches, Governor Michelle Bowman and Boston Fed President Susan Collins said there's still the possibility that the Fed will have to raise rates further if economic data doesn't cooperate. The commentary comes two days after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee decided not to raise rates following its two-day meeting. While choosing not to raise rates, officials indicated they still see one more increase coming this year, then potentially two cuts in 2024, assuming moves of 0.25 percentage point at a time. "There are some promising signs that inflation is moderating and the economy rebalancing," Collins said.

Persons: Susan Collins, Michelle Bowman, there's, Bowman's, Bowman, Collins, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, National Association of Business Economics, Federal, Boston Fed, Market Locations: Washington , DC, Vail , Colorado, Maine

Now, however, some firms and experts are walking back those predictions, calling into question the validity of a once-trusted recession indicator known as the yield curve inversion. Nobody rational would argue that the yield curve could have predicted a global pandemic and the short recession that followed it. NABE's most recent survey shows economists are divided on what a yield curve inversion means for the U.S. economy. In normal circumstances, yield curve inversions have been a pretty good indicator of recessions, according to Jebaraj. While the yield curve inverted in 2019, that was not necessarily a predictor of the 2020 recession.

Persons: Mervin, NABE, Goldman Sachs, NABE's Jebaraj, Sam, Jebaraj, — Organizations: Westend61, Getty, National Association for Business Economics, Reserve, Wall, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Center for Business, Economic Research, Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas, Treasury, National Association for Business Locations: U.S

☆ Fed's Bostic says U.S. interest rates are high enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks to reporters at the National Association of Business Economics' annual policy meeting in Washington, U.S. March 21, 2022. "I feel policy is appropriately restrictive," Bostic said in remarks prepared for delivery to the South African Reserve Bank Biennial Conference in Cape Town, South Africa. "We should be cautious and patient and let the restrictive policy continue to influence the economy, lest we risk tightening too much and inflicting unnecessary economic pain." U.S. central bankers are widely expected to leave the Fed's policy rate in the current range of 5.25%-5.5% when they next meet in a little less than three weeks. Bostic has been in the minority at the Fed, cautioning against over-tightening policy and needlessly hurting jobs and livelihoods.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Ann Saphir, Bostic, Bostic's, Richard Chang Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, National Association of Business Economics, REUTERS, South African Reserve Bank Biennial, U.S, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Cape Town , South Africa, U.S

☆ July CPI report shows inflation gauge rose 3.2%, less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

watch nowThe consumer price index rose 3.2% from a year ago in July, a sign that inflation has lost at least some of its grip on the U.S. economy. Prices accelerated a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. The annual rate for the core also was slightly below a Dow Jones consensus estimate for 4.8%. Markets reacted positively to the report, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 200 points and Treasury yields mostly lower. Almost all of the monthly inflation increase came from shelter costs, which rose 0.4% and were up 7.7% from a year ago.

Persons: Dow Jones, Sung Won Sohn, Rick Rieder Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Dow Jones, Markets, Treasury, SS Economics, Loyola Marymount University, Federal, BLS, Federal Reserve, BlackRock Locations: U.S

☆ The new 'tone deaf' Bob Iger might just be focused on a Disney and Apple M&A
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Peter Csathy | Fearless Media | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Fearless Media is a newsletter about the future of entertainment, media, and tech by Creative Media chairman Peter Csathy . Disney CEO Bob Iger's comments regarding the strikers may hint at his deeper M&A state of mind. For the past decades, Disney CEO Bob Iger has been perhaps the most revered media and entertainment titan, beloved by both employees and Wall Street — a rare feat and balancing act to be sure. SAG President Fran Drescher joined voices across entertainment in calling Iger's comments "tone deaf" and rich for someone who reportedly makes more than 500 times the median salary of Disney employees. Peter Csathy is the founder and chairman of Creativie Media and an internationally recognized media, entertainment, and tech expert.

Persons: Peter Csathy, Bob Iger's, Iger, Bob Iger, —, Fran Drescher, Iger's, Sun, Tim Cook —, Steve Jobs, Rupert Murdoch, Palminteri, Keyser, doesn't bode, Read Organizations: Creative Media, Disney, Morning, Fearless Media, SAG, Mouse House, Marvel, Pixar, Apple, Wall, Fox Television, Wall Street, Hollywood, Creativie Media Locations: Sun Valley, Nice

☆ Americans continue to feel better about inflation and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —US consumers have been feeling a whole lot better this summer as inflation has continued to slow. That’s a huge improvement from June 2022, when consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level on record and inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1%. “However, sentiment for lower-income consumers fell.”Indeed, recent data continue to reflect inflation slowing. Consumer spending is the main engine of the economy, accounting for about two-thirds of output, and much of it hinges on the state of the labor market. The Fed certainly wants to see core inflation continue to decelerate, but Powell routinely points to the labor market not being balanced.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan, University of Michigan’s, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Fed, “, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Washington, EY

☆ 3 signs the US economy is set to zoom past growth expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

On Thursday, new GDP data will show just how much the US economy grew between April and June. The US has also been experiencing a factory boom, with construction spending on US manufacturing nearly doubling from May 2022 to May 2023. Manufacturing employment recently hit its highest level since 2008, and since Biden took office, around 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added. In the first two quarters of this year, applications to start a business likely to hire employees grew 7% year-over-year. Sectors leading likely employer business applications include accommodation and food services, construction, health care and social assistance, and retail trade.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Joe, Biden, Ellen Zentner, Julia Coronado Organizations: Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Congressional, Investments, Economic, Sectors, National Association for Business Economics, Conference, CPI, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon, —, Philadelphia, frastructure, Mississippi, North Carolina

☆ Top economists do U-turn on recession forecasts as most now see it as unlikely in next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A 71% majority of economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 50% or less. It's a turnabout from a March, when a majority saw a recession sometime in 2023. A 71% majority of economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 50% or less, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics. That includes a sizable chunk who are especially optimistic, with one-fourth saying a recession has a probability of 25% or less. And in the March NABE survey, 58% said the US was either already in a recession or that it would come sometime in 2023.

Persons: It's, Julia Coronado, Steve Eisman, Paul Krugman Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

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