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About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking
Societe Generale is raising its 2024 S & P 500 target thanks to the enthusiasm surrounding the contribution artificial intelligence will make to corporate profits. The S & P 500 closed Wednesday at 5,224.62. "We upgrade our S & P 500 target on rational optimism," Manish Kabra, head of U.S. equity strategy at the bank, wrote in a Thursday note. To be sure, Kabra raised his S & P 500 earnings outlook to 18% in 2024 from 15% previously, but anticipates a slowdown in earnings growth expectations in the second half of the year. The higher S & P 500 target is "on the back of the artificial intelligence boom in 2024," Kabra wrote.
Persons: Manish Kabra, Kabra, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Generale, CNBC Market, Survey, Bank of America, UBS, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve
Recession views are dangerously similar to those in 2007, SocGen's Albert Edwards said. Soft landing or no landing outlooks are growing on Wall Street as the US appears on solid economic footing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Those signs appear lost on many other market commentators, who have dialed back their recession views in the last few months. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.
Persons: SocGen's Albert Edwards, Edwards, , Société, Albert Edwards, That's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Chicago, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, National Federation of Independent Business, National Association of Business, Fed, Investor Locations: York
Brendan McDermid | Reuterswatch nowSwiss headline inflation fell from 1.7% in December to 1.3% in January, well below consensus forecasts, while core inflation dropped from 1.5% to 1.2%. Analysts at Capital Economics said the steep decline meant inflation "looks sure to undershoot the SNB's Q1 forecast of 1.8%." "However, with the January inflation downside surprise, the SNB forecast looks too high to us, and the probability of a policy rate cut on 21 March has increased. Bank of Japan to end negative rate era While most major central banks are looking at loosening monetary policy after more than two years of aggressive tightening to combat rampant inflation, the question for the Bank of Japan is the opposite. The country's core inflation rate — which excludes food and energy — fell to 2% year-on-year in January, after a third monthly increase, surprising slightly to the upside and suggesting that a sustainable return to ultra-low inflation may not be in the cards.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Société Générale, Kit Juckes Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, Capital Economics, UBS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of Japan, French
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Disco is backOthers have also started to compare today's market and the 1970s' "Nifty Fifty." AdvertisementJPMorgan's Chief Global Strategist Marko Kolanovic also said in a note on Wednesday that fiscal spending and inflation could resemble the 1970s landscape. Similar to the 1970s, there are currently 3 active geopolitical conflict zones – eastern Europe, Middle East, and South China Sea," Kolanovic said. Kolanovic included in his note the chart below, which shows the correlation between inflation and the performance of the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Jeffrey Gundlach, Cole Smead, Smead, Sears Roebuck, Alphabet's, Nvidia's, Microsoft's, Jeremy Siegel, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, " Rosenberg, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Bank of America's, Treasury, Nasdaq, DoubleLine, Investments, Business, Morningstar, Microsoft, Nvidia, Xerox Locations: Europe, Middle East, South China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's fiscal policy is 'increasingly more important,' economist saysWei Yao, head of research and chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Société Générale, discusses the People's Bank of China's decision to cut the country's benchmark five-year loan prime rate for the first time since June, and the limitations the central bank faces in stimulating the economy.
Persons: Wei Yao, Générale Organizations: People's Bank Locations: Asia
Photo taken on January 21, 2024 shows a real estate project under construction in Huai 'an city, Jiangsu province, China. CFOTO | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesPolicymakers are doing little to soothe concerns surrounding China's ailing economy, Brian McCarthy, chief strategist at Macrolens told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Wednesday. The latest monetary policy announcement from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) saw the central bank cut the benchmark 5-year loan prime rate by 25 basis points earlier this week. Many observers saw the move as an effort to boost the country's struggling property market, as the majority of mortgages are pegged to this rate. The 5-year loan prime rate cut was a more "aggressive" move within these decisions, he added.
Persons: Huai, Brian McCarthy, Macrolens, CNBC's, Wei Yao, Générale, stabler, McCarthy Organizations: Getty, People's Bank of China, CSI Locations: Jiangsu province, China, Asia
For example, the tech sector’s valuations are generally lower than they were then, though still elevated. One is that the fundamentals of the tech sector are detached from its price action. While the sector’s earnings have performed better than the rest of the market on average, earnings expectations have been rising faster than actual subsequent earnings performance. Many parallels between the dot-com bubble and today’s market have been called to light in recent weeks. Only time will tell if tech stocks are in a bubble that's due to burst.
Persons: Albert Edwards, , ” Edwards, Edwards, Michael Hartnett, Jeffrey Schulze, Adam Karr, , Quincy Krosby, Hartnett Organizations: Societe Generale, Nasdaq, Business, Generale, Bank of America, Orbis Investment Management, Artificial Intelligence, LPL Financial Locations: Japan
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today’s big story, we’re looking at Google’s new internal AI model aimed at improving worker efficiency. The big storyAI assistanceCBS Photo Archive/Getty ImagesGoogle employees are getting an AI-powered wingman in the company’s bid to improve efficiency. Goose can answer questions about Google's tech and write and edit code, according to an internal summary of the model. Tech companies have tested inventions on their own employees for years in a process known as "dogfooding," writes BI's Alistair Barr.
Persons: , Denny's, customizations, Hugh Langley, Tom Cruise’s copilot, Alistair Barr, Tyler Lee, , Bryan R, Smith, Wall, Gary Gensler, We’re, Société, Elad Gil, Gil, ChatGPT, it’s, Uber, Nomura, Young homebuyers, Meredith Whitney, Donald Trump, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, CBS, Getty, Microsoft, OpenAI, Tech, Google, Big Tech, Fed, UBS, SEC, Silicon Valley’s, BI, Xbox, Dragon, Workers, Wall Locations: China, New York, London
European markets are set to open mixed Friday as investors digest the latest slew of corporate earnings and look ahead to fresh economic data. German inflation fell in January to 3.1%, new data from the the federal statistical office showed Friday. Regional markets closed slightly lower on Thursday as investors digested a slew of earnings from Unilever, Societe Generale, Maersk, Siemens and Adyen. In Asia-Pacific, Japan's Nikkei hit fresh 34-year highs on Friday, while most markets were either fully or partially closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. Stateside, U.S. futures were lower Friday morning after the S&P 500 crossed the historic 5,000 milestone for the first time during intraday trading.
Organizations: Unilever, Societe Generale, Maersk, Siemens, Adyen, Nikkei Locations: Italy, Asia
European markets are heading for a positive open on Thursday as investors focus on a slew of earnings set to come from Unilever, Societe Generale, Maersk, Siemens and Adyen. Regional markets retreated Wednesday amid ongoing uncertainty over the rate cut outlook. Japan's Nikkei led gains in Asia-Pacific markets on Thursday, hitting fresh 34-year highs, after a report suggested the country's central bank would not aggressively tighten its monetary policy. U.S. stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Wednesday after the S&P 500 finished the regular session on the brink of the 5,000 milestone. Investors will monitor fresh U.S. jobless claims data on Thursday to gauge the health of the labor market.
Organizations: Unilever, Societe Generale, Maersk, Siemens, Adyen, Japan's Nikkei Locations: Asia, Pacific
Societe Generale on Thursday reported a sharp decline in fourth-quarter net profit on the back of weaker net banking income, but launched a new 280 million euro ($302 million) share buyback program. The French lender posted a group net income of 430 million euros, slightly above a consensus analyst forecast of 404 million euros, according to LSEG data, but well below the 1.07 billion euros recorded for the final quarter of 2022. It comes after the bank posted posted a group net income of 295 million euros for the third quarter, as resilient investment bank performance offset a sharp downturn in its French retail business. Thursday's result took France's third-largest listed bank's annual net profit to 2.49 billion euros, slightly above analyst expectations of 2.15 billion euros. However, quarterly net banking revenue dropped 9.9% year-on-year to 5.96 billion euros, which the bank attributed largely to a decline in net interest income in French retail, and its private banking and insurance division, along with the negative impacts from unwinding hedges.
Persons: Slawomir Krupa, Krupa, BoursoBank Organizations: Generale, SocGen, Global Banking, Investor Solutions, Retail Banking, Soc Locations: France
Late last year, Wall Street investors had bet that a rate cut in March was a near-certainty. Collectively, the policymakers likely feel little urgency to start cutting rates, a point that Chair Jerome Powell may stress in a news conference Wednesday. The unemployment rate, at 3.7%, isn't far above a half-century low. Yet some cracks have begun to appear in the job market and, if they worsen, could spur the Fed to cut rates more quickly. Though the European Central Bank could cut rates as soon as April, many economists think that might not happen until June.
Persons: Joe, Biden, Jerome Powell, they’re, , Subadra Rajappa Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Republicans, Congress, Wall Street, Consumers, General Motors, United Auto Workers, Conference Board, European Central Bank Locations: U.S, United States
Fed meeting: Here's what to expect
  + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed meeting: Here's what to expectSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, Paul Christopher, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global market strategy, and Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss a timeline for Fed rate easing, U.S. economic health, and more.
Persons: Subadra, Paul Christopher, Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Societe Generale, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Nikko Securities America Locations: Wells Fargo
Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth consecutive meeting, leaving them at a 23-year high as policymakers likely discuss the timing of rate cuts. That’s because, if inflation drifts lower but interest rates remain elevated, it causes “real” interest rates to rise, unnecessarily squeezing the economy and risking job losses. A rapidly weakening economy threatening mass job losses is an obvious reason to cut rates, which most economists aren’t currently forecasting. But another concern that has gained some traction is the rise of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which is an argument for rate cuts. The Fed is set to announce its latest policy decision at 2 pm ET on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Chair Powell at 2:30 pm ET.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, , ” Sarah House, , , Christopher Waller, it’s, Mary Daly, they’re, aren’t, Austan Goolsbee, Subadra Rajappa, Générale, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Chicago Fed, CNBC, PCE, Labor Department Locations: Washington, Wells, ” San
That’s the Fed’s latest attempt at giving Wall Street a reality check on rate cuts. Fed officials have been communicating that sentiment for weeks now, and Wednesday’s statement is yet another signal from the Fed that investors need to rethink their bets. In early January, futures showed that rate cuts were very likely going to happen in March, but those odds have since crumbled, and they may continue to dip. There are consequences if the Fed cuts rates too soon and if it cuts too late. Fed officials have said they likely need to see “below-trend growth” to be assured that inflation is on its way to 2%.
Persons: Price, , , Jerome Powell, Subadra Rajappa, Générale Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, CNN, Fed Locations: Washington
Everything was getting bigger — its cultural influence, geopolitical ambition, population — and seemed poised to continue until the world was remade in China's image. But now China's economy is withering, and the future Beijing imagined is being cut down to size along with it. What Beijing does — or fails to do — to fight this malaise will determine the course of humanity for decades to come. China's deflation worries started in earnest in the summer. Years of overbuilding — by about double the population, according to some estimates — and slowing population growth caused prices to collapse .
Persons: Minxin Pei, there's, Charlene Chu, Autonomous Research Charlene Chu, Chu, Wei Yao, Générale, I'm, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Xi Jinping, Xie Huanchi, Société Générale's Yao, Yao, It's, , aren't, Logan Wright, Wright, Xi doesn't, Jinping, it's, Xi, Claremont's Pei, magnanimity Organizations: Claremont McKenna College, Autonomous Research, Federal Reserve, Getty Images Japan, Chinese Communist Party, Xi, CCP Locations: China, Beijing, dauphin, Xinhua, Japan, Xi's China, East Asia, Taiwan, Europe
He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, , Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewInvestors are underestimating the risk of an economic slowdown, and "greedflation" among companies can't prop up the market any longer, Société Générale said in a note this week. Firms hiking prices likely helped avoid a deeper slump in profits stemming from a slowing economy, Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards said. "The Greedflation driven surge in margins helped stop the profits slowdown turning into a deep downturn. A recession still poses a decent risk to the economy, though investors have warmed up to the prospect of a soft-landing.
Persons: , Société Générale, they're, Société, Albert Edwards, Greedflation, Edwards, , Evercore, quant, Andrew Lapthorne, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, New, Fed, Institute of Supply, Evercore ISI
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's economy is on a 'very treacherous' path of stabilization, economist saysWei Yao, Societe Generale chief economist and head of research, says China's economy still faces "immense" downward pressure from the housing sector and debt problems.
Persons: Wei Yao Organizations: Societe Generale
Close up of Chinese Yuan notes, with Mao Tse-tung Peter Dazeley | The Image Bank | Getty ImagesChina's recent policy support is aimed at fixing its system and shouldn't be seen as economic stimulus, according to Societe Generale's Asia chief economist and head of research. PMI divergenceExpansion in China's services sector climbed to its strongest since August, a private survey on Tuesday showed. However, the private survey diverged from China's official PMI. The moderating manufacturing PMI and contracting services PMI, along with other November data point to the fragility of the Chinese economy and a faster deceleration of growth momentum last month, they added. The official PMI includes more companies engaged in heavy industries compared with the Caixin PMI, which covers more consumer-focused firms, Barclays economists said.
Persons: Yuan, Mao Tse, Peter Dazeley, Wei Yao, Yao, Jian Chang Organizations: Bank, Getty, Societe Generale's, CNBC, Economic Work Conference, China Communist, PMI, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, Barclays Locations: Societe Generale's Asia, China
A logo of French bank Societe Generale is seen on the company's skyscraper at the financial and business district of La Defense near Paris, France September 14, 2023. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsPARIS, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Societe Generale , France's third-biggest listed bank, said on Monday it issued its first so-called digital green bond on a public blockchain, as the lender seeks to build expertise in crypto services. AXA IM made the investment in the digital green bond by acquiring and then spending 5 million euros worth of SocGen's euro-denominated stablecoin, EUR CoinVertible (EURCV). SocGen's bond issuance, made on the Ethereum public blockchain, follows the launch last week by the European Investment Bank (EIB) of its second euro-denominated digital bond on a private blockchain, in partnership with Goldman Sachs Bank Europe, Santander and SocGen. SocGen's digital green bond issuance was made via its crypto unit, Forge.
Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Generali, SocGen, Blockchain, Mathieu Rosemain, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Rights, AXA Investment, AXA, Generali Investments, European Investment Bank, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe, SocGen, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, Santander
A former Credit Suisse chair used the bank's private jet to breach COVID restrictions. AdvertisementUBS has sold the Credit Suisse private jet that prompted its ex-chairman's resignation after just nine months, according to the Financial Times. António Horta-Osório used the bank's Dassault Falcon 7X to travel to sports matches and breach COVID travel restrictions, an internal investigation found. A used Falcon 7X typically sells for around $18 million, according to listings on AV Buyer. The FT reported that Credit Suisse planned to sell its jet before being rescued by UBS earlier this year, but UBS executives pushed through the sale.
Persons: deplaning, , António, Osório, deplaned, Dan Kitwood, Taylor Swift Organizations: Credit Suisse, Dassault Falcon, Service, UBS, Financial Times, Wimbledon, soccer's, Reuters, FT, Bombardier Global, Business Locations: Maldives, António Horta, London, Horta, Singapore, Zurich
LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Four major banks, including Standard Chartered Plc (STAN.L) and HSBC Plc (HSBA.L), have quit a United Nations-backed initiative to scrutinise climate targets set by corporations, according to people familiar with the matter. Many lenders say they should finance fossil fuels as long as economies depend on them. The spokesperson added that Standard Chartered was seeking alternative third-party validation of its climate targets and that it was setting science-based targets through the NZBA. It will still require them to cease the financing of fossil fuel projects that would weigh on their longer-term emissions targets. Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA), ING (INGA.AS), BBVA (BBVA.MC) and Swedbank (SWEDa.ST) told Reuters they remained committed to SBTi validating their emissions targets.
Persons: SBTi, SBTi's, Pietro Rocco, haven't, it's, Rocco, Tommy Reggiori Wilkes, Simon Jessop, Josie Kao Organizations: Standard Chartered, HSBC Plc, United, Societe Generale SA, ABN Amro Bank, Zero Banking Alliance, HSBC, Societe Generale, ABN Amro, Reuters, Credit, ING, BBVA, NatWest, Commerzbank, BNP, Allianz, Alliance, Zero, Carbon Trust, Thomson Locations: United Nations, Nations, Paris, U.S, decarbonising, London
The benchmark S&P 500 will climb 12% to hit a new all-time high of 5,100, strategists said. Much of Wall Street has turned bullish on the index, which has defied gloomy predictions to rack up stellar gains this year. AdvertisementDeutsche Bank has become the latest big name on Wall Street to issue a bullish stock-market forecast for 2024, with analysts predicting the S&P 500 will soar to a fresh all-time high next year. AdvertisementWall Street bullishnessThere's clearly an optimistic atmosphere amongst stock-pickers right now, with Deutsche Bank far from the only big name on Wall Street to predict the S&P 500 could climb to record highs. Burnishing Chadha's credentials is the fact that he was one of the only Wall Street strategists who called this year's surprise stock-market rally.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, , Binky Chadha, Tesla, Société Générale, Brian Belski, Burnishing Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital, Deutsche, Business, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, Facebook, Nasdaq, Dow Jones
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