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☆ Exclusive: Bayer holds call with bond investors after raft of bad news
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Shankar Ramakrishnan | Thomson Reuters | Shankar Ramakrishnan Has Nearly Years Of Financial Journalism Experience In Writing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bad news prompted some bond investors to question whether Bayer should sweeten the terms of the deal or outright pull it, one of the sources said. The drug-to-pesticides group priced the investment grade bond on Thursday last week, with the deal closing on Tuesday. Bayer priced bonds with maturities between three to 30 years. It was the 10th largest investment grade bond deal by an industrial company this year and attracted more than $22 billion in orders, according to Informa Global Markets. The events were "not enough to trigger a material adverse change clause in bond documents for investors to ask to be paid back," said CreditSights' Brady.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Bayer, Andrew Brady, CreditSights, JP Morgan, Wells, Brady, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Ludwig Burger, Mike Erman, Paritosh Bansal, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Bayer AG, REUTERS, Bayer, Nomura Holdings, Informa Global Markets, Citigroup, Nikko Securities America, RIC, Thomson Locations: Leverkusen, Germany, Seattle

But they are going only as far as the safest bets in the junk category, bonds rated BB and B. Junk bond spreads, the additional interest rate investors demand over safe Treasury bonds, tightened sharply. The spreads of those rated BB and B, or the higher rungs of junk, had tightened 47-52 basis points last week, according to Informa Global Markets data. Four junk bond issuers – Bombardier (BBDb.TO), Venture Global LNG, Smyrna Ready Mix Concrete and InfraBuild Australia - announced bond offerings on Monday. The spotty access to bond markets does not bode well for poorly rated companies.

Persons: Rick Wilking, ”, Edward Marrinan, Peter Knapp, Winnie Cisar, bode, Morgan Stanley, Moody's, Manuel Hayes, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Paritosh Bansal, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Nikko Securities Americas, Investors, JPMorgan, Informa, CCC, Bombardier, Venture Global LNG, “, London, Insight Investment, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Smyrna, Australia

☆ Markets are on board with the Fed's ‘higher for longer’ policy, CNBC survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As recently as the summer, respondents had forecast rate cuts in the beginning of next year. The change can also be seen in the outlook for the fed funds rate, the central bank's benchmark for short-term lending costs. It's now forecast on average to end 2024 at 4.6%, assuming about 75 basis points of rate cuts. In June, the year-end 2024 funds rate was forecast at 3.8%, which assumed 125 basis points of cuts. Some 60% of respondents see the Fed hitting its inflation target in 2025 or sometime after that, and 19% don't believe the Fed will ever get there.

Persons: Jerome, Powell, Peter Boockvar, Robert Brusca, Troy Ludtka Organizations: CNBC, Survey, Federal Reserve, Bleakley Financial, Fed, Nikko Securities

☆ BOJ likely to lift inflation forecasts, debate tweak to yield cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BOJ sets a target of around 0% for the 10-year yield under YCC. Since then, rising global bond yields and persistent inflation have put the BOJ in a tight spot with the 10-year JGB yield threatening to breach the 1% cap. The 10-year bond yield rose to a fresh decade high of 0.955% on Tuesday. Sources told Reuters last week the BOJ could debate further tweaks to YCC at the Oct. 30-31 meeting to relax its grip on the 10-year yield. The BOJ is widely expected to maintain the 0% target for the 10-year yield and that for short-term rates at -0.1%.

Persons: BOJ, Ueda, Ataru Okumura, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of, Nikkei, Nikko Securities, Reuters, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Bank of Japan, Japan

☆ The economy probably showed gangbuster growth in the third quarter. But will it last?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

If the projection is correct, it will be the strongest output since the fourth quarter of 2021, when growth was just shy of 7%. However, policymakers, economists and markets will be focused more on forward-looking signals from an economy that repeatedly has defied expectations. For Q3, GDPNow is projecting growth of 5.4%, with more than half — 2.77 percentage points — to come from consumer spending. That expectation intensified during a brief banking industry crisis in March 2023 that the Fed expected would constrain credit enough to bring about a downturn. Central bank officials have raised rates aggressively while professing to not want to drag the economy into recession.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Dow, Joseph LaVorgna, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, LaVorgna, Steven Ricchiuto, Ricchiuto, —, Quincy Krosby, that's Organizations: Getty, Gross, Dow Jones, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities America, Federal Reserve, Fed, White, Mizuho Securities USA, Department, Treasury, LPL Locations: Manhattan, New York City, U.S

☆ The U.S. economy is extremely resilient, says economist Betsey Stevenson
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. economy is extremely resilient, says economist Betsey StevensonJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, and Betsey Stevenson, professor of economics at the University of Michigan, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss where the Federal Reserve goes from here, their thoughts on the overall economy, and more.

Persons: Betsey Stevenson Joseph LaVorgna, Betsey Stevenson Organizations: Nikko Securities America, University of Michigan, Federal

☆ BOJ's Noguchi says wage growth momentum is biggest focus for Japan economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the biggest focus for the Japanese economy now was to ensure that momentum for wage growth stayed in place, with a 3% rise in nominal pay to back efforts to meet the 2% inflation target. "His emphasis on wage growth probably meant the BOJ will retain its easy policy until wage hikes are firmly in place following the labour talks next March." "The biggest focus now is whether this (wage growth) momentum will be maintained or not from now on as well." Noguchi said household inflation expectations are steadily rising, but if wage growth lags behind price hikes, consumers would have no choice but to reduce their spending, as seen lately. "The BOJ's mission for the time being is to realise it (positive growth in real wages) through patient monetary easing," Noguchi said.

Persons: Asahi Noguchi, Noguchi, Yoshimasa Maruyama, Tetsushi, Chang, Ran Kim Organizations: Bank of Japan, Nikko Securities, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Niigata, Tokyo

☆ Japan warns it will take 'appropriate' steps on excessive yen falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Japan will take appropriate steps against excessive moves in the yen "without ruling out any options", Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Wednesday, keeping markets on alert over the chance of yen-buying intervention. Suzuki told reporters he would not comment on whether Tokyo intervened in the exchange rate market overnight to prop up the yen. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda told reporters early on Wednesday that authorities were looking at various factors, including implied volatility, in determining whether yen moves were excessive. He declined to comment on whether the overnight yen moves were excessive. He added that Japan was acting in accordance with an agreement with its G7 and G20 partners, which includes a commitment to the stance that excessive exchange rate moves are undesirable.

Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Suzuki, Masato Kanda, that's, Kanda, Fumio Kishida, Yoshimasa Maruyama Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Nikko Securities Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia

☆ Something is breaking in financial markets — Here's what's behind the sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Brendan McDermid | ReutersThat cracking sound in financial markets isn't the typical kind of break, where one asset class or another fractures and gives way. "The cost of capital is going up, companies are going to have to refinance at a higher rate." That sentiment was buttressed this week, when at least four central bank officials either endorsed hikes or indicated that higher rates would be staying in place for an extended period. Consumers, for one, are feeling the squeeze of higher rates on everything from mortgages to credit cards to personal loans. "Now, at some point, my guess is that markets will eventually get to cheap enough levels where you'll bring buyers in.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Larry McDonald, Treasurys, McDonald, It's, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, I've Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Treasury, LPL, Labor Department, Wall, P Bank ETF, Congressional, Treasury Department, The, White House, National Economic Council, Nikko Securities Locations: New York City, Washington, U.S

☆ Japan's business mood improves, capex firm in boost to economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Leika Kihara | Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan’s business sentiment improved in the third quarter, a central bank survey showed, suggesting conditions for a durable economic revival are falling into place even as a global slowdown keeps policymakers cautious about the outlook. Big non-manufacturers’ index stood at 27, up from 23, the survey showed, above a median market forecast of 24 and improving for the sixth straight quarter. The survey showed big manufacturers expect conditions to improve three months ahead, though sluggish global demand and signs of weakness in China’s economy cloud the outlook. “The tankan showed Japan is on track for a domestic-demand led growth. But analysts expect a mild contraction in the July-September quarter as sluggish global demand weigh on exports.

Persons: Maki Shiraki, ”, Marcel Thieliant, Yoshimasa Maruyama Organizations: Nissan, Co, Ltd's, EV, REUTERS, Companies, Bank of Japan, Capital Economics, Big, Nikko Securities Locations: TOKYO, Tochigi prefecture, Japan, Asia, U.S

The forecasts seem at odds as higher rates raise the credit costs that can crimp the economy. MSCI's U.S.-centric gauge of global equity performance and stocks on Wall Street bounced back while Treasury yields, which move inversely to price, retreated. Yields on two- and 10-year notes remained inverted at -68.3 basis points as the shorter-dated note yields more than the longer one. MSCI's all-world country index for stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.14%, but the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.31%. Oil prices rose as renewed global supply concerns from Russia's fuel export ban countered demand fears driven by macroeconomic headwinds and higher interest rates.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Marvin Loh, Joe LaVorgna, SMBC, Brent, Craig Ebert, Huw Jones, Tom Westbrook, Marguerita Choy, Rashmi Aich, Aurora Ellis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank, Japan, Treasury, Federal, Fed, U.S, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of, Japan's Nikkei, Investors, Bank of England, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York, Asia, Japan, China, Sweden, Norway, BNZ, Wellington

☆ This is a ‘distorted environment’ for investors, warns fmr. White House economist Joe LaVorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is a ‘distorted environment’ for investors, warns fmr. White House economist Joe LaVorgnaJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Fast Money' to talk current market risks, the probability of a recession and more.

Persons: fmr, Joe LaVorgna Joseph LaVorgna Organizations: Nikko Securities America

☆ Europe's weaker economy limits fallout of US bond rout
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Last week, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched their highest relative to Germany's since December. For rate-sensitive short-dated German bond yields yields are even down 17 bps in August as weak data has raised expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike pause in September. SPILLOVERBofA, Goldman Sachs and Barclays expect Treasury yields to end the year slightly below current levels. Barclays's Khanna estimates German bond yields would have been 50-60 bps lower had they only been driven by domestic factors. The spillover from higher Treasury yields is more challenging elsewhere.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mauro Valle, Valle, Salman Ahmed, Rohan Khanna, Fitch, Mondher, SPILLOVER BofA, Goldman Sachs, Jackson, Barclays's Khanna, Frederik Ducrozet, Ataru Okumura, Yoruk, Chiara Elisei, Junko Fujita, Kevin Buckland, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, Generali Investment Partners, European Central Bank, Fidelity International, U.S, Fitch, AAA, Vontel Asset Management, Barclays, Treasury, Federal Reserve, ECB, Pictet Wealth Management, of Japan, Nikko Securities, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Europe, Germany, Britain, Germany's, It's, Italy, France, Japan, Amsterdam, London, Tokyo

☆ Market reactions to Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

"It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so," Powell said. "August has been a difficult month for the market, so it is hungry for news that will help reverse the trend. Investors are hanging on to every word, but the main takeaway is that Powell signaled that the Fed would raise rates if needed. Rather than last year's short but brutal speech, Powell opted for a longer and calmer speech. KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CORPAY, TORONTO"On balance, this is a modestly less hawkish speech than markets had feared.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, CHRISTOPHER HODGE, MICHAEL GREEN, ANDRE BAKHOS, CARSTEN BRZESKI, Ann Saphir, Christine, Lagarde, ” JOSEPH LAVORGNA, “, ” STUART COLE, ” QUINCY KROSBY, there's, DAVID WAGNER, Jackson, BRIAN JACOBSEN, patting, KARL SCHAMOTTA, Bernanke, Draghi Organizations: U.S . Federal, Federal, NFP, Fed, ING, Kansas City, REUTERS, CHIEF, CPI, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, JERSEY, FRANKFURT, Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, NIKKO, LONDON, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA, CINCINNATI , OHIO, WISCONSIN, TORONTO

☆ Powell's pivotal speech Friday could see a marked shift from what he's done in the past
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"I just think he's going to play it about as down the middle as possible," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America. "He's got to strike that chord that the Fed is going to finish the job. "He's going to want to be a little more hawkish than neutral. But he's not going to deliver what he delivered last year. A Cleveland Fed inflation tracker anticipates August's figures will show a noticeable jump.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Win Mcnamee, Joseph LaVorgna, circumspect, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, He's, It's, Quincy Krosby, he's, Inflation's, Krosby, Patrick Harker, you've, Harker, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Jackson Organizations: Financial, Federal, Getty, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Research, National Economic Council, LPL, Cleveland, San Francisco Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Washington , DC, circumspect Powell

☆ All of the economic momentum is pointing to the downside, says top economist Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAll of the economic momentum is pointing to the downside, says top economist Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the U.S. economy, recession fears, the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting, and more.

Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna, Jackson Organizations: Nikko Securities America Locations: U.S

Edward Marrinan, macro credit strategy desk analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities America, added: "Credit risk at this point is mispriced." The move prompted a sell-off in equities and slight widening in corporate credit spreads. The average investment-grade bond spreads as of on Thursday were just a few basis points wider than the tightest levels touched this year in July and 16 basis points tighter from January. Junk-bond spreads are 98 basis points inside January levels. "With market consensus now expecting a soft landing, the credit markets are arguably underpricing default risk," BMO’s Krieter said.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Cindy Beaulieu, Edward Marrinan, Moody's, Daniel Krieter, Krieter, Marrinan, Manuel Hayes, Hayes, BMO’s Krieter, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Davide Barbuscia, Paritosh Bansal, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: NYSE, American Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Investors, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, London, Insight Investment, Informa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ What does Moody’s downgrade mean for markets?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —Moody’s on Monday evening downgraded 10 US banks and put the credit ratings of six others on review, an indication that the agency could also eventually downgrade those institutions. Some investors say that while the Moody’s downgrade isn’t groundbreaking, it’s a reminder that the economy, and markets, still have challenges ahead. Moody’s downgraded Commerce Bank, BOK Financial, M&T Bank, Old National Bank, Prosperity Bank, Amarillo National Bank, Webster Financial, Fulton Financial, Pinnacle Financial and Associated Bank. Wall Street firms fined $549 million for using WhatsApp and other channelsWells Fargo is among a number of Wall Street firms that admitted Tuesday to using WhatsApp, Signal and other messaging platforms for “off-channel” communications in violation of federal recordkeeping requirements. The Securities and Exchange Commission said the Wall Street firms acknowledged wrongdoing and have agreed to pay penalties totaling $289 million, reports my colleague Matt Egan.

Persons: CNN — Moody’s, JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Goldman Sachs, BNY, Cullen, Frost, ” Moody’s, ”, Kara Murphy, Fitch, Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott, Price, Matt Egan, Houlihan Lokey, Alicia Wallace Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Bank, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, Banking, BNY Mellon, Northern Trust, Frost Bankers, Truist Financial, US Bank, Moody’s, Commerce Bank, BOK, T Bank, National Bank, Prosperity Bank, Amarillo National Bank, Webster Financial, Fulton Financial, Pinnacle Financial, Associated Bank, PNC Financial Services, Financial, Citizens Financial, Fifth Third Bank, Huntington Bank, Regions Financial, Cadence Bank, FNB Corp, Simmons, Ally Financial, Bank OZK, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Federal Reserve, Kestra Investment Management, Consumer, Wall Street, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, BNP, SG Americas, BMO Capital Markets, Mizuho Securities, SMBC Nikko Securities, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Wells Fargo, Amarillo, Marinac, Wells, SMBC Nikko Securities America, WhatsApp, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York

☆ A group of Wall Street banks have been fined $549 million for using WhatsApp and other messaging apps to discuss business
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The SEC and CFTC have fined a group of Wall Street firms a combined $549 million. The firms admitted to employees using WhatsApp and other messaging services for business purposes. A pair of regulatory agencies on Tuesday announced large fines for a group of Wall Street banks that admitted to using WhatsApp and other messaging services for business purposes. The Securities and Exchange Commission is fining nine firms a total of $289 million, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued $260 million in fines, for a combined sum of $549 million. The Wednesday announcements bring the SEC's total fines related to the matter to $1.5 billion, while the CFTC's statement said it's imposed more than $1 billion in penalties to date.

Persons: Grewal, SEC Wells, Houlihan Lokey Organizations: SEC, CFTC, Wall Street, BNP, BMO Capital Markets, Morning, Securities, Exchange, Futures Trading, Americas Securities, Capital Markets, Mizuho Securities USA, Company, Wedbush Securities, Nikko Securities America Locations: Wells Fargo, Wall

WASHINGTON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators on Tuesday hit another batch of Wall Street firms with $549 million in civil penalties over widespread record-keeping failures related to employees' use of personal text messages and other messaging apps. Eleven firms, including Wells Fargo Securities and BNP Paribas Securities Corp, have agreed to pay $289 million in fines to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to resolve the allegations. Regulators require broker dealers and investment advisers to keep certain work-related communications, but Wall Street dealers have increasingly used personal devices in recent years. Spokespeople for BNP, which agreed to pay $110 million to the regulators, and Mizuho, which agreed to pay $25 million to the SEC, declined to comment. The regulators have already fined units of JPMorgan Chase and Co (JPM.N), Barclays, Bank of America and others for similar record-keeping failures.

Persons: Wells, Société, Spokespeople, Gurbir Grewal, Chris Prentice, Susan Heavey, Nivedita Balu, Nupur Anand, Saeed Azhar, Bernadette Baum, Jason Neely Organizations: Wall Street, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, BNP Paribas Securities Corp, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Futures Trading, BNP, Bank of Montreal, Wedbush Securities Inc, Wall, SEC, CFTC, Mizuho, Nikko Securities, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, Bank of America, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Nikko, New York, Washington, Toronto

☆ Regulators fine Wall Street firms $549 million for using WhatsApp and other channels to discuss business
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

New York CNN —Wells Fargo and a slew of other Wall Street firms admitted Tuesday to using WhatsApp, Signal and other messaging platforms for “off-channel” communications in violation of federal recordkeeping requirements. The Securities and Exchange Commission said the Wall Street firms acknowledged wrongdoing and have agreed to pay penalties totaling $289 million. The SEC said the firms violated federal securities laws by failing to maintain or preserve the “substantial majority” of these communications. Another regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, also fined four of the same Wall Street firms for failing to maintain records and failing to supervise matters related to their businesses. The CFTC hit Bank of Montreal with a $35 million fine and a $75 million fine each for BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Wells Fargo.

Persons: Wells, Houlihan Lokey, ” Sanjay Wadhwa Organizations: New, New York CNN, Securities, Exchange Commission, Wall Street, SEC, BNP, SG Americas, BMO Capital Markets, Mizuho Securities, SMBC Nikko Securities, Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, Bank of Montreal, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, SMBC Nikko Securities America, WhatsApp

That would be a lag of eight months, significantly longer than the average gap between last hike and first cut going back decades. "In the past markets have tended to underestimate how high rates are raised and underestimate how low rates are cut. Inflation targeting, more sophisticated financial markets, transparent central bank communications, and greater central bank autonomy since the 1990s have all contributed as well. Brazil's central bank, one of the first to raise rates in early 2021, has started cutting them after a 12-month pause. Current market pricing suggests that will not come until 2025, which would be an even longer lag.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Joe Lavorgna, BoE, Milton Friedman's, Jamie McGeever, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Bank of, Reuters, The Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: New, New York City, U.S, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO , Florida, Brazil's

☆ Rally setback: Top economist Joe LaVorgna sees key inflection point ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRally setback: Top economist Joe LaVorgna sees key inflection point aheadJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America Chief Economist, joins 'Fast Money' to help make sense of market moves with the economy, Fed, GDP and markets. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the FM Traders.

Persons: Joe LaVorgna, Joseph LaVorgna, Melissa Lee Organizations: Nikko Securities America, FM Traders

If the U.S. economy has a "soft landing" - no recession this year with inflation near target, and only a mild downturn next year with unemployment staying historically low - Jerome Powell may lay claim to being the most successful Fed chief in history. Powell was frequently on the receiving end of public lashings from his then boss - "Clueless," "horrendous lack of vision" and "pathetic!" "Kudos to Powell if he can achieve a soft landing. Greenspan, dubbed 'the Maestro' by his admirers, was Fed chief from 1987 to 2006. Not only that, his 36% rating was the lowest of any Fed chair since the survey series began in 2001.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Yellen, Donald Trump, Trump, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Volcker, Greenspan, Joe LaVorgna, Alan Blinder, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Joe, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Powell's, Republican, Nikko Securities, Trump White House, Reuters, New York Fed, Gallup, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S

☆ Recession worries are likely to carry over into the second half of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

LaVorgna is in the camp that says it will be difficult if not impossible for the U.S. to avoid at least a modest period of negative growth in the second half. "The only way we won't have a deep recession is if the Fed has the courage to ease very quickly." "The second half will be difficult. And if history is any guide, the strength that has marked the first half of the year likely will carry over into the second half. In years when the index gained more than 10% in the first half, the second half usually sees double the normal second-half return, according to CFRA.

Persons: Joseph LaVorgna, Trump, LaVorgna, That's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, hasn't, CFRA, Sam Stovall, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities America, Fed, Market Committee, Atlanta, Moody's, University of Michigan, Treasury, Pantheon Locations: U.S, nonfarm payrolls, Friday's

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