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Zillow reported that a wave of new inventory hit the market in February. New listings of existing homes on Zillow jumped 21% year-over-year last month. The data suggest the "lock-in" effect and frozen housing market are softening. AdvertisementHigh mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and tight inventory have kept many Americans sidelined from the housing market since the pandemic. Zillow data out Thursday showed new listings of existing homes jumped 20.8% in February compared to the same time in 2023, and climbed 20.3% month-over-month.
Persons: Zillow, Organizations: Service, Business
Fed officials have said rate cuts are coming soon, but inflation must still cool further. Markets are placing the greatest odds on a rate cut in June, fed fund futures show. AdvertisementFederal Reserve officials have said interest rate cuts are coming this year, but there's not an exact date in their outlook just yet. Those expectations were little changed after Tuesday's inflation report, which showed CPI came in hotter than expected in February. Reducing our policy rate too soon could result in requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent in the longer run."
Persons: , there's, CME's, Jerome Powell, " Neel Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America, Capital, Capital Economics, Labor
The firm battling Musk previously helped Twitter in a legal conflict with the billionaire. The billionaire is set to face off again with a lawyer who helped Twitter sue Musk after he attempted to back out of the $44 billion purchase. One of the lawyers from the Wachtell firm, William Savitt, helped lead Twitter's case against Musk. AdvertisementMusk helped found OpenAI in 2015 and has said he invested tens of millions of dollars into the AI venture. Representatives for Musk and OpenAI did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Persons: OpenAI, Elon Musk's, Musk, , Elon Musk, Lipton, Katz, Foerster, Sam Altman, William Savitt, Morrison, Ragesh Tangri —, Morgan Chu, Alan Heinrich, Chu, Tesla, Altman Organizations: Twitter, Service, Reuters, Wachtell, Rosen, Morrison, — Jordan Eth, Ragesh, Bloomberg, Microsoft, Musk Locations: — Jordan
The US economy has grown dramatically and powered its stock market in recent decades. "The longer-term rise in the relative size of the US equity market has reflected the dominance of the US economy," strategists wrote. Similarly, the prolonged increase in the US markets' relative total size reflects the dominance of the US economy, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman SachsThe growth factorThe strength of the American stock market can be traced largely to its high volume of growth names. AdvertisementThe US stock market has more exposure to fast-growing companies than other countries.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , it's, Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Exxon, Mobil, Ford, General Electric, IBM, Novo Nordisk Locations: Switzerland, Denmark, Novo, Danish
Mortgage rates eased for the first time in five weeks, Freddie Mac said Thursday. Easing affordability and improving inventory suggests a gradual thawing of the market. "It's important to remember that rates can vary widely between mortgage lenders so shopping around is essential." However, Capital Economics strategists wrote earlier in the week that easing mortgage rates won't be enough to spark a meaningful, lasting rebound in home demand. Advertisement"Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate 'lock in' will continue to curb home moves," Capital Economics strategists wrote in a note.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , — that's, Freddie Mac's, Sam Khater, Jerome Powell, Realtor.com, that's Organizations: Service, Capital
China's real estate slump is about to get worse
  + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Capital Economics said the "unavoidable structural decline" in China's property sector has only just begun. AdvertisementSeveral years in and China's prolonged real estate slump has been well-documented, but the landscape may be about to deteriorate further as construction enters a deeper correction, Capital Economics said in a note Wednesday. AdvertisementResidential real estate activity in China Capital Economics, CEICSizable infrastructure support has prevented construction from falling as much as anticipated. As Capital Economics highlights, real estate construction remains an opaque measurement in China. In Capital Economics' view, Beijing will drag it out longer so that it doesn't fully materialize until 2030.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Economics, China Capital Economics, Capital Economics, Capital Locations: China's, Beijing, China
Optimism about the economy spiked among US CEOs to start the yearBusiness Roundtable's quarterly CEO sentiment report jumped by 11 points in the first quarter. The report also showed CEOs expect hiring, capital investment, and sales to all increase in the coming six months. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment report showed Americans' mood improving to start the year, climbing to its highest mark since July 2021. AdvertisementA special question in the latest survey from the business group in this quarter's survey showed that CEOs are feeling downbeat about government policy and regulation. We urge policymakers to recommit themselves to promoting economic growth, creating more American jobs and increasing economic mobility," Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten said.
Persons: , Chuck Robbins, Joshua Bolten Organizations: Service, Business, Cisco, IMF, University of Michigan Locations: U.S
With Super Tuesday setting the US up for a Biden-Trump rematch, it looks like China has no good choices. But a rising perspective among experts on China posits that Beijing has good reason to hope Trump retakes the White House. Both President Joe Biden and Trump are expected to continue their aggression toward China, with Biden locking away US tech exports and Trump more recently threatening a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Whichever way Beijing is betting, it's hard to say which man its preferred pick would be. AdvertisementWith close-to-clean sweeps across the board on Super Tuesday, both Biden and Trump are now all but confirmed to be their respective parties' nominees.
Persons: Trump, , Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, Chengxin, Pan, MAGA, skittish, Stanley Rosen, Agathe Demarais, Demarais, shelve, China that's, it's, Ian Ja Chong, they're Organizations: Biden, Trump, Service, China, Associated Press, University of Macau, University of Southern California's China Institute, geoeconomics, European Council, Foreign Relations, Foreign Policy, National University of Singapore, White Locations: China, Beijing, Shanghai, Ukraine, Russia, New York
In today's big story, we're looking at bitcoin's latest rally and what's driving it so high this time around . The milestone comes amid a massive rally for bitcoin over the past month, where its price has surged almost 60%. Business Insider's Phil Rosen has a full rundown on what's pushing bitcoin's price so high this time . SOPA Images / GettyA boon for bitcoin doesn't mean everyone in the space wins. The insider I spoke to said there's no single, agreed-upon narrative for what's driving crypto toward a new peak.
Persons: , you've, Phil Rosen, BlackRock's, Jamie Dimon, there's, Tom Williams, Doom, Roubini, BofA, Li Qiang, headwinds, Mark Zuckerberg's, Andrew Bosworth, Sam Altman's, Altman, Hugo Herrera, Lachlan Murdoch, Nordstrom, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Bitcoin, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Beijing, Apple, Getty, European Commission, Employees, BI, Boomers, Fox, Target Locations: bitcoin, China, Chengdu, Southwest China's Sichuan, New York, London
A key long-term indicator of an overbought market has been flashing since November. When it flashes for 12 months, the S&P 500 is positive 100% of the time, Bank of America said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThree months into 2024 and the stock market is off to a stellar start. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Organizations: Bank of America, Markets, Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business
Easing mortgage rates won't fully unwind the "lock in" effect, Capital Economics said. Home moves and market activity will remain muted even if borrowing costs become more attractive. "Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate 'lock in' will continue to curb home moves," Capital Economics strategists said. In the research group's view, housing market activity will remain muted as competition for homes stays tight and affordability remains historically low. The strategists expect mortgage rates, too, will continue to trend above pre-pandemic levels.
Persons: Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Capital
The move has also fueled speculation about the end of Wolf Warrior diplomacy. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty ImagesChina is also aware that the shock value of Wolf Warrior diplomacy brings diminishing returns. "I think the limits of wolf warrior diplomacy are apparent," Loh said. The Wolf Warrior will be backThat said, Wolf Warrior diplomacy will return, depending on the issue at hand, said Loh. LEAH MILLIS/Getty ImagesSo why did Liu tell reporters and academics in New York that Wolf Warrior diplomacy would never return?
Persons: , Liu Jianchao, Liu, China's, Antony Blinken, ROBERTO SCHMIDT, Ian Ja Chong, Chong, Zhao Lijian, Zhao, Rather, Stanley Rosen, Rosen, you'll, Zhao dismissively, Nancy Pelosi's, Anthony Kwan, Pan Chengxin, Donald Trump's, Pan, Dylan Loh, Xi Jinping, Biden, Xi, BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI, Loh, Qin Gang, LEAH MILLIS Organizations: Service, Communist Party's International Department, of Foreign, Business, US, AFP, Getty, National University of Singapore, Foreign Ministry, University of Southern, China Institute, U.S . House, Deakin University, Nanyang Technological University of Singapore, Getty Images, Chinese Foreign Locations: New York, China, West . China, Beijing, University of Southern California's US, Maryland, Ukraine, Weibo, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Africa, Southeast Asia, Australia, Gaza, AFP, Getty Images China, West
China has been grappling with negative consumer prices for several months. No other major world economy faces deflation. China is the only major economy with negative consumer prices, dropping 0.8% year-over-year in January. China is the only major economy dealing with deflation. And China's ongoing real estate market slump has depressed the prices for household items and residences.
Persons: Organizations: Service Locations: China, Beijing
New listings for homes for sale climbed 12.9% year-over-year in February, Redfin data shows. Total inventory also improved, as total homes for sale did not decline for the first time in nine months. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Mortgage-purchase applications have dropped for four consecutive weeks, and pending sales dipped 8%, the steepest drop in five months.
Persons: , Redfin, Brynn Rea Organizations: Service, Mortgage Locations: Redfin, Spokane , Washington
Canada's largest pension fund sold a stake in a New York building for $1. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for comment. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board operates a $436.9 billion fund, with a global real estate portfolio worth roughly $30.6 billion. According to the Bloomberg report, the pension isn't backing out entirely from the office real estate sector, but it's also limiting its holdings in the space. Economists at Moody's, too, expect more pain ahead for commercial real estate.
Persons: , it's, Goldman Sachs, Moody's Organizations: Service, Pension Plan Investment Board, Bloomberg, Pension Plan Investment, Boston Properties, Santa, Santa Monica Business Park, Bank, New York Community Bank Locations: New York, Canada, Santa Monica, Silicon, Moody's
In January, the law firm Crowell & Moring traded its New York offices in an early 1980s building in Midtown Manhattan for a newly built space on the West Side, with sweeping views of the Hudson River and New York Harbor. The law firm’s previous office layout was “essentially wasted space,” said Philip T. Inglima, the firm’s chairman. Crowell & Moring makes better use of the square footage in its new location, which includes features like sit-to-stand desks, video technology for hybrid meetings and double-pane glass for soundproofing, Mr. Inglima said. Larger law firms nationwide have been shedding space even as they have added lawyers. “We don’t have everybody in the office all the time, and that’s why we don’t necessarily need that larger footprint,” said Sharis A. Pozen, the law firm Clifford Chance’s regional managing partner, for the Americas.
Persons: Crowell, , Philip T, Moring, Inglima, Clifford Organizations: Moring, Crowell Locations: New York, Midtown Manhattan, Hudson, Americas
The US housing market faces an inventory shortage, but empty offices don't offer a solution. Goldman Sachs strategists say that offices can't be cheaply or easily converted into residential units. Goldman Sachs Investment Research, CoStar dataIn the same stretch, a combination of high mortgage rates and home prices with limited housing inventory has frozen the US housing market. Residential housing affordability has declined for the last 15 years and hit a historical low in 2022. "Our analysis implies that only 0.8% of US office inventory is currently priced at a level that makes conversion to multifamily housing financially feasible," the bank maintained.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , it's, Goldman, Jan Hatzius Organizations: Service, Goldman Sachs Investment Research, Goldman, San Locations: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle
Yet two months into 2024, Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues seems to have nearly pulled off what many would have called a miracle not long ago. Between a rock and a hard placeThe January Fed meeting minutes reinforced policymakers' careful approach for the months ahead. AdvertisementTo be sure, as far as policy expectations, markets have only recently arrived on the same page as the Fed. "The Fed doesn't want to be seen as having allowed inflation to reignite," he added. "The Fed doesn't want to undo all the good work they've done, and needlessly push the economy into a recession."
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, James McCann, Abrdn, Gene Goldman, CME's, Gregory Draco, Draco, Larry Summers, Summers, Cetera's Goldman, Goldman, Abrdn's McCann, McCann Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Co, Fed, Cetera Investment Management, Bloomberg
This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementExperts maintain that any hikes this year are unlikely, but say it's notable how they have creeped back into the policy conversation once again. "You can't say zero probability for something to break in the event of another rate hike," Jason Draho, head of asset allocation in the Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider. "That last mile [of inflation] will be harder to obtain," Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise Financial's chief market strategist, told Business Insider. "The Fed's erring on the side of hawkishness," Hunter told Business Insider.
Persons: , Larry Summers, Summers, Jason Draho, you'd, Goldman Sachs, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, Paul Mielczarski, Mielczarski, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, PPI, Fed, Former, Bloomberg, Traders, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics Locations: Americas, OER, Brandywine, hawkishness
In today’s big story, we’re looking at the chances of there being no rate cuts this year, and how the markets would react. What's on deck:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The big storyCuts are canceledAaron Schwartz/Xinhua via Getty ImagesDon't count your chickens before they hatch and don't price in your rate cuts before they materialize. Last December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that three cuts were on the table for 2024, which he reiterated earlier this month. AdvertisementBonds could struggle, though, with further delays on rate cuts raising the risk that debt markets suffer another meltdown like they did last fall.
Persons: , Mark Zuckerberg, Aaron Schwartz, , won’t, Jerome Powell, Phil Rosen, There's, BI’s Yuheng Zhan, NYCB’s, Ark's Cathie Wood, Paul Judge, Tessa Flippin, Claude Grunitzky, Gayle Jennings O'Byrne, Black VCs, Masayoshi Son, OpenAI’s, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, UFC, Business, Xinhua, Getty, Federal, Paramount, Fed, Big Tech, JPMorgan Private Bank, Discover, Discover Financial, Nvidia, Opportunity, Equity Alliance, Wocstar Fund, Opportunity Fund, Equity Alliance Wocstar, Google, Walmart, Pandora, Home Locations: Japan, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Fox, New York, London, Chicago
Yet Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues have rebuffed those forecasts, and markets have pushed their rate cut predictions further into 2024. And the producer price index for January came in at 0.3% on Friday, higher than the expected 0.1% increase. Jimmy Chang, the chief investment officer for Rockefeller Global Family Office, told Business Insider that it would be difficult for the Fed to cut rates in the current landscape. AdvertisementThe Fed's next moveThe case for keeping rates unchanged has gained momentum over recent weeks, but both markets and the Fed ultimately expect easing interest rates in 2024. Bank of America forecasts that the first cut likely won't happen until June, and policymakers could opt to cut rates "later and faster."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Nonfarm payrolls, Mary Daly, agilely, Joe Seydl, Seydl, Jimmy Chang, Chang, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jay Woods, We're, Woods, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan Private Bank, Rockefeller Global Family Office, Fed, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Freedom Capital Markets, Bank of America
China's birthrate has plunged, with the number of newborns in 2023 falling by 500,000, to about 9 million. AdvertisementDecades of China's one-child policy have created a demographic nightmare for the world's second-largest economy, and millions of school teachers could soon be left without a job as birthrates tumble. If those classes don't scale back, China could see a surplus of 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 middle school teachers by 2035, according to a Tuesday report from the South China Morning Post. Last year marked the second consecutive year that China's population shrank, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. Total primary school students, too, declined in 2022 for the first time in a decade.
Persons: China's birthrate, , it's Organizations: Service, South China Morning, country's National Bureau of Statistics, Education, China National Academy of Educational Sciences, Terry Group, Terry, UN Locations: China, Beijing, Hangzhou
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG said it's bracing for an ongoing decline in commercial real estate. It called the downturn "the greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis." Shares of the German bank have declined about 25% year-to-date. AdvertisementSigns of commercial real estate distress continue to mount, with the latest warning coming from German lending giant Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG. "Despite these expenses, pbb remains profitable thanks to its financial strength – even in the greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis," the bank said in a statement February 7.
Persons: , they've Organizations: Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG, Service
"We estimate that real house prices in China declined 16% from the peak in 2021Q3 to 2023Q3," Goldman analysts said. For context, US real house prices peaked in early 2006 and bottomed in 2012. Goldman's derived measure of China's real house prices has only dropped by half as much as the US saw during its six-year collapse, as the chart shows below. Goldman Sachs"[O]verly loose mortgage lending standards and too much mortgage debt, which were at the center of the US subprime crisis, do not apply in China," Goldman analysts said. Foreclosures soared as homeowners couldn't afford to pay off or refinance their mortgages, which lowered house prices further.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Price Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Business, Housing Locations: China, Beijing, 2021Q3
A spokesman for Industrious said it would own a 40% stake in the merged subsidiary. The vacancy rate for office space nationally hit 18.6% at the end of 2023, according to data from CBRE– the highest level since 1992. About 771 million square feet, about twice the size of Manhattan's entire office market, sits empty nationally. How Industrious won the coworking warHodari has been an astute and resilient player in the coworking business. At the time, most coworking companies sought to rent space from landlords then sublease that to their clientele at a hefty markup.
Persons: WeWork, Jamie Hodari, Hodari, Deskpass, Sam Rosen, Deskpass Stephanie Bassos, CBRE, Breather, Rosen, Adam Neumann, Shlomo Silber, Silber, lockdowns, You've Organizations: Business, Deskpass, Bond Locations: New York, Chicago, Breather
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