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Washington, DC CNN —US home building surged in May, climbing 21.7% from April, as low inventory in the existing home market continued to boost interest in new homes. Housing starts, a measure of new home construction, came in far beyond expectations that they would decline by 0.1%, according to data released Tuesday by the Census Bureau. The number of single‐family units rose in May to 1.631 million, above expectations for 1.40 million and above the revised April estimate of 1.34 million. Building permits, which track the number of new housing units granted permits, also rose in May, after dropping in March and April. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges market conditions and looks at current sales, buyer traffic and the outlook for sales of new construction homes over the next six months.
Persons: , Robert Dietz, ” Dietz, Alicia Huey Organizations: DC CNN, Housing, Census, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo
New home construction rose in April after a dip in March
  + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
However, housing starts, a measure of new home construction, were down 22.3% from a year ago, according to data released Wednesday by the Census Bureau. After surging in February following five consecutive months of falling, housing starts fell in March. Single‐family housing starts in April rose 1.6% from the revised March figure, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 833,000. Building permits, which track the number of new housing units granted permits, fell in April after also dropping in March. Building permits were down in the Northeast and Midwest, but climbed in the South and West.
It's the fifth straight month of gains and the first reading of builder sentiment since July that wasn't negative, which would be a reading below 50. With mortgage rates now double what they were a year and a half ago, some potential sellers may be reluctant to trade to another home at a higher rate. Homebuilders also drew more buyers by offering incentives, like buying down mortgage rates. Sentiment in the Midwest rose 2 points to 39. In the South, it increased 3 points to 52, and in the West moved 3 points higher to 41.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 45 in April, a one-point gain. Builders in the report cited a lack of listings on the resale market, which gave them an unusually strong edge. Slightly lower mortgage rates are also helping demand — though rates are still higher than they were a year ago. "Builders note that additional declines in mortgage rates, to below 6%, will price-in further demand for housing," said Alicia Huey, NAHB chairman and a custom homebuilder and developer from Birmingham, Alabama. It marked the first time both of the indicators were positive since June, when mortgage rates really took off.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose two points to 44. "But given recent instability concerns in the banking system and volatility in interest rates, builders are highly uncertain about the near- and medium-term outlook." Of the index's three components, current sales conditions rose two points to 49, and buyer traffic rose three points to 31. Accordingly, the housing market continues shifting as growing household and family formation continued to drive demand against a chronic supply shortage." In the South it rose five points to 45, and in the West it moved four points higher to 34.
Feb 15 (Reuters) - Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a second straight month in February - and by much more than economists had anticipated - in a fresh signal the housing market was turning a corner after last year's huge slump. The reading - the highest since September - was also higher than all 33 projections in a Reuters survey of economists, which had a median estimate of 37. A reading below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor rather than good. Moreover, it appears that the peak in mortgage rates has passed, said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. NAHB said all four regions saw improved sentiment and the index tracking expectations for future sales rose for a third month.
Washington, DC CNN —Home builder confidence jumped this month by the largest amount in almost 10 years, as falling mortgage rates pulled in more buyers. All three metrics rose in February for the second straight month, showing the strongest reading since September and the largest monthly increase for builder sentiment since June 2013. “Even as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy conditions, forecasts indicate that the housing market has passed peak mortgage rates for this cycle,” he said. But mortgage rates that are lower now than they were last fall are improving affordability for buyers. The average mortgage rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rate peaked last year at 7.08% in November, according to Freddie Mac.
According to two separate indices existing home prices rose to the highest level in 6 years. Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe U.S. housing market cooled off pretty dramatically last year, after mortgage rates more than doubled from historic lows. Now, as demand appears to be coming back into the market, due to a slight drop in mortgage rates, prices are pushing back. But mortgage rates began to fall in December, and prices reacted immediately. Lower mortgage rates are driving the new demand.
Washington, DC CNN —A modest drop in mortgage rates over the past month has helped home builder confidence improve in January, after 12 consecutive months of falling, according to a survey released Wednesday. Experts say that could mean new home building is set for a pivot as construction prospects improve. All three metrics rose in January, marking the first improvement in builder sentiment since December 2021. The survey found home builders’ confidence rose this month from its December level, which was the lowest sentiment level since 2012 — aside from the immediate onset of the pandemic. “In the coming quarters, single-family home building will rise off of cycle lows as mortgage rates are expected to trend lower and boost housing affordability,” he said.
This led to a downturn in the US housing market as housing activity dramatically faded. But, as inflation slows and interest rates fall, an economist says that the US housing market may get back on track in 2023. Sam Khater, the chief economist at Freddie Mac, also expects lower inflation to entice more Americans to return to the housing market — especially millennials. "While mortgage market activity has significantly shrunk over the last year, inflationary pressures are easing and should lead to lower mortgage rates in 2023," Khater said in a January mortgage report. Indeed, lower mortgage rates are already reviving interest from potential home buyers.
Sales of new U.S. homes retreated in January after a flurry of purchases at the end of 2021, indicating a jump in mortgage rates may be starting to restrain demand. Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market posted an unexpected gain in January, rising for the first time in 12 straight months. Sentiment rose four points to 35 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Both builders and consumers are likely responding to the recent drop in mortgage rates. "In the coming quarters, single-family home building will rise off of cycle lows as mortgage rates are expected to trend lower and boost housing affordability."
New home building retreated in November
  + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Washington CNN —Home building pulled back in November, as buyers faced spiking mortgage rates topping 7% that make homes increasingly unaffordable. Housing starts bounced back a bit in August while mortgage rates briefly retreated. But since that time, mortgage rates have been on the rise, hitting a 20-year high in October. One number that beat estimates was housing starts, he said, but those were weighted to apartments, not single-family homes. “Potential homebuyers should see some relief next year in the form of lower mortgage rates and possibly lower home prices,” said Frick.
In light of the hubbub surrounding FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried, this morning I'm thinking about a quote by novelist G. Michael Hopf:"Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times." And that's the sense I got from speaking to one 26-year-old investor who lost a sizable chunk of his portfolio in FTX. I just caught up with FTX user Daniil Pemberton, who lost access to roughly $14,000 in funds when the crypto exchange imploded last month. Now, FTX users like Pemberton have been left with a hole in their pockets and faltering faith in the digital asset sector. Do you have a story to share about losing access to funds in FTX, or on how you're changing your investment strategy?
Moreover, the unbroken string of declines since last December is the longest in a series that dates to the mid-1980s. The housing market has seen the most pronounced effects so far of the aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that are aimed at quashing inflation that continues to hold at unacceptably high levels. Reuters GraphicsSince March, the U.S. central bank has lifted its benchmark policy rate from near zero to a range of 4.25%-4.50%. NAHB said nearly two-thirds of builders were offering incentives, including mortgage rate buydowns, paying points for buyers and price reductions. Reuters GraphicsMore key housing market data is due this week.
Homebuilders were less confident about their business in December, but they are starting to see potential green shoots. Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market dropped two points to 31 in December on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. This is the 12th straight month of declines and the lowest reading since mid 2012, with the exception of a very brief drop at the start of the Covid pandemic. Regionally, sentiment was strongest in the Northeast and weakest in the West, where prices are highest. The NAHB continues to blame high mortgage rates, which despite the recent drop are still about twice what they were a year ago.
Suzanne Kreiter | The Boston Globe | Getty ImagesWith rising mortgage rates, homeowners are staying in place. By the end of the first quarter of this year, before the steep runup in mortgage rates caused the housing market to falter, homeowners had a collective $11 trillion dollars in so-called tappable equity, according to Black Knight. That equity is part of a three-pronged driver of home improvement, according to the CEO of Lowe's, Marvin Ellison. "The growth rate for improvement spending will slow due to declines for existing home sales," said Robert Dietz, NAHB's chief economist. "However, an aging housing stock, work from home trends and a decline for household mobility all favor remodeling spending."
Homebuilder sentiment in the single-family housing market fell to the lowest level in a decade in November, as builders continue to struggle with higher costs for labor and materials and lower demand from homebuyers. A monthly sentiment index from the National Association of Home Builders dropped 5 points from October to 33. The NAHB said 59% of builders reported using incentives, a significant increase from September to November. In November, 25% of builders reported paying points for buyers, up from 13% in September. In the South, it fell 7 points to 42 and declined 5 points to 29 in the West.
Everyone's talking about how the Fed's rate hikes have sent mortgage rates skyrocketing. But even as mortgage rates have climbed above 7%, my colleague Alcynna Lloyd and I report that there's more to the story. The general gist is that the surge in home prices — fueled by the low rates of the pandemic era — hasn't come down as fast as mortgage rates have come up. There's a saying, "all real estate is local." This self-made millionaire who made his money investing in real estate isn't interested in taking out a mortgage right now.
Mortgage rates have climbed above 7% for the first time since 2001, but that's only half the story of the affordability crisis. The deeper issue is that there aren't enough homes to fulfill every would-be buyer's dream, which means people are competing with their wallets and driving prices higher and higher. Mortgage rates are above 7% for the first time in over two decades for the most popular type of mortgage, and are only expected to keep rising. So far in 2022, US housing construction has fallen in four out of nine months. It's a decision that Dietz said could result in housing supply dwindling further.
Like prospective homeowners, homebuilders aren't happy with the housing market, either. The housing market isn't working for most Americans. In September, residential homebuilding slowed as housing starts decreased 8.1% from August levels, according to a report from the US Census Bureau that was released on Wednesday. During the month, single-family housing starts decreased 4.7% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 892,000. "This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts," Robert Dietz, the chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders, said.
The two data points out Tuesday illustrate the uneven impact the U.S. central bank's rate hikes are having so far on the economy. Manufacturing output rose 0.4% last month, keeping pace with an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in August, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Overall industrial production rose 0.4%, after slipping 0.1% the prior month. The rate hikes have torpedoed activity in the housing sector, and Wednesday's data from the National Association of Home Builders reinforced that. "And given expectations for ongoing elevated interest rates due to actions by the Federal Reserve, 2023 is forecasted to see additional single-family building declines as the housing contraction continues."
Homebuilder sentiment in the single-family home market has fallen to half what it was just six months ago as mortgage rates climb, according to a new report. "High mortgage rates ... have significantly weakened demand, particularly for first-time and first-generation prospective home buyers," said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a homebuilder and developer from Savannah, Georgia. Of the index's three components, current sales conditions slid 9 points to 45, and sales expectations in the next six months dropped 11 points to 35. On a three-month moving average, the sentiment score in the Northeast fell 3 points to 48. In the South it fell 7 points to 49 and in the West declined 7 points to 34.
Oct 18 (Reuters) - Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders fell for the 10th straight month in October as soaring mortgage rates and bottlenecks for building materials made new housing less affordable for many first-time buyers. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index dropped eight points to 38 this month. "This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts," NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said in a statement. "And given expectations for ongoing elevated interest rates due to actions by the Federal Reserve, 2023 is forecasted to see additional single-family building declines as the housing contraction continues." Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
With mortgage rates on the rise and buyer demand collapsing, home prices are poised to stay high into 2023. Soaring interest rates have ripped through the housing market in 2022, driving mortgage rates to highs not seen since the peak of the mid-2000s housing bubble. Demand for rental properties has rallied as Americans shy away from buying, leading costs to soar at apartments and rental homes, too. For those who don't own their home and haven't locked in a low mortgage rate, shelter is as expensive as it's ever been. Rate hikes have lifted mortgage rates and generally made housing far less affordable.
Some of the biggest players in the real estate industry, including RE/MAX, Redfin and Wells Fargo, have announced layoffs in recent months totaling thousands of jobs. Over that period, 200,000 people became real estate agents, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Workers in the mortgage industry have been among the hardest hit as demand for refinancing and home sales tumble. Real estate brokers have also been affected, said Ken H. Johnson, a former real estate broker who is now an associate dean at Florida Atlantic University, where he studies the real estate industry. Even in the best of times, it can be a struggle for new brokers to be able to make a full-time living selling real estate.
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