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Home Depot misses on revenue, issues muted outlook
  + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Gabrielle Fonrouge | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Home Depot's revenue fell short of Wall Street's estimates in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report Tuesday. The company also provided a muted outlook for the next year amid a tough consumer backdrop. In the quarter ended Jan. 29, Home Depot reported $35.83 billion in sales, up 0.3% from the year ago period, which saw $35.72 billion in revenue. Home Depot said it expects sales and comparable sales to be approximately flat for the new fiscal year. The retailer issued the muted outlook because it expects some pressure in the goods sector and flat consumer spending, McPhail said.
If you want to know how this year may be for the retail industry, look no further than Walmart 's cautious outlook. At Walmart, that means shoppers are buying more necessities like groceries and lightbulbs rather than big-ticket items or discretionary items like electronics and home decor. At Home Depot, it could mean customers may delay a home project or opt for cheaper floor tiles or kitchen appliances. Home Depot Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said the higher prices of groceries and more are influencing customers' decisions. "We've seen an increasing degree of price sensitivity as the year's gone on, which is actually sort of what we predicted in the face of persistent inflation," McPhail told CNBC.
Walmart and Home Depot warned that sales growth is likely to slow as shoppers look to save money. Between inflation, rising interest rates, layoffs, and other uncertainties, the stresses on household bank accounts are mounting, which could spell trouble as consumer spending represents roughly 70% of the US economy. "Prices are still high, and there is considerable pressure on the consumer," Walmart CFO John Rainey said. In Home Depot's case, CFO Richard McPhail told analysts: "We've assumed, like many economists, that we will see flat, real economic growth and consumer spending in 2023." We don't know what happens to consumer spending.
The soft landing is still alive, but so is inflation Watching the stock market from Yucatan last week, it was pretty clear that firmer inflation numbers from the consumer price index and producer price index meant the glidepath to lower inflation will likely be bumpier than the bulls have been hoping for. The problem is clear: We have to figure out the glidepath of the inflation decline. We'll get more inflation data this week with the personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday. The good news is that other economic data indicates that the economy is very strong, particularly on the jobs front . The problem is a lack of bounce in growth stocks: Technology is expected to be flat in 2023, with only a modest 8.7% bounce in communication services earnings expected.
Suzanne Kreiter | The Boston Globe | Getty ImagesWith rising mortgage rates, homeowners are staying in place. By the end of the first quarter of this year, before the steep runup in mortgage rates caused the housing market to falter, homeowners had a collective $11 trillion dollars in so-called tappable equity, according to Black Knight. That equity is part of a three-pronged driver of home improvement, according to the CEO of Lowe's, Marvin Ellison. "The growth rate for improvement spending will slow due to declines for existing home sales," said Robert Dietz, NAHB's chief economist. "However, an aging housing stock, work from home trends and a decline for household mobility all favor remodeling spending."
Now for the bad news: Home Depot lost customers again. The DIY leader said in its third quarter earnings report that the number of customer transactions fell more than 4% from a year ago. Home Depot noted that the average customer ticket was nearly $90, up about 9% from a year ago. “Home Depot is not immune to a tightening economy,” Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData, said in a report. “Moving into 2023, the picture becomes more complicated and much depends on the trajectory of the economy,” Saunders said.
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