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☆ Gasoline, food drive US producer prices higher; core inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The so-called core PPI increased 2.8% on a year-on-year basis in September after climbing 2.9% in August. Wholesale goods prices increased 0.9%, with a 3.3% rise in the cost of energy products accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core goods prices edged up 0.1% for the second straight month. This mostly reflected the normalization of supply chains, whose disruption fueled goods inflation in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Though core inflation is cooling, higher gasoline and food prices could hamper progress by raising the cost of other goods as well as causing consumers to expect inflation to rise.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Christopher Rupkey, Will Compernolle, Alex McGrath, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters, PPI, Reuters Graphics, Trade, Fed, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, WASHINGTON, New York, East, Greenville , South Carolina

☆ Low weekly jobless claims, shrinking trade deficit boost US economic picture
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Trade balanceExports of goods and services increased 1.6% to $256.0 billion. Goods imports dropped 0.9% to $256.0 billion amid declines in imports of consumer and capital goods, potentially flagging softening domestic demand amid higher borrowing costs. Cell phones and other household goods accounted for the drop in consumer goods imports. The decrease in capital goods imports reflected declines in semiconductors and electric apparatus. Services imports increased $0.1 billion to $58.4 billion, supported by travel and other business services.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, Unadjusted, nonfarm payrolls, Oscar Munoz, Goldman Sachs, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Reuters, Employers, Institute for Supply Management, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Treasury, Challenger, Labor, Securities, Commerce Department, Goods, Services, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City , New York, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Ohio, California

☆ S.Korea's accelerating inflation set to keep policy restrictive for longer
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jihoon Lee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Office workers pick up lunch boxes at a convenience store in Seoul, South Korea, June 24, 2022. REUTERS/ Heo Ran/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSEOUL, Oct 5 (Reuters) - South Korea's consumer inflation accelerated for a second month in September, above market expectations, official data showed on Thursday, supporting prospects of the central bank maintaining its restrictive policy for some time. Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho said after the data release that inflation would likely stabilise again from October with seasonal factors easing. The central bank also said inflation, which was slightly higher in September than its projection, would still ease to around 3% by the end of the year. Broken down by sector, prices of petroleum products jumped 4.0% over the month, agricultural prices climbed 4.1%, while public utility prices added 5.3%.

Persons: Heo, Choo Kyung, Ahn Jae, Jihoon Lee, Ed Davies, Tom Hogue Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Shinhan Securities, of Korea, Statistics, CPI, Thomson Locations: Seoul, South Korea, Rights SEOUL, Statistics Korea

☆ South Korea Sept consumer inflation accelerates for second month
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Office workers pick up lunch boxes at a convenience store in Seoul, South Korea, June 24, 2022. REUTERS/ Heo Ran/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSEOUL, Oct 4 (Reuters) - South Korea's consumer inflation accelerated for a second month in September, outpacing market expectations, official data showed on Thursday. It was the second consecutive month the annual rate quickened, from a 25-month low of 2.3% in July, and marked the fastest annual rise in five months. Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho said after the data release that inflation would likely stabilise again from October with seasonal factors easing. Broken down by sector, prices of petroleum products jumped 4.0% over the month, agricultural prices climbed 4.1%, while public utility prices added 5.3%.

Persons: Heo, Choo Kyung, Jihoon Lee, Ed Davies, Tom Hogue Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Statistics, CPI, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Seoul, South Korea, Rights SEOUL, Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea's

☆ US services sector growth slows moderately
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The survey's measure of new orders received by services businesses dropped to 51.8, the lowest level since December, from 57.5 in August. PRICES REMAIN ELEVATEDDespite the slowdown in new orders, services businesses continued to face higher prices. A gauge of prices paid by services businesses for inputs was unchanged at 58.9. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid measure as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. The ISM's gauge of services sector employment dipped to 53.4 from 54.7 in August, which mostly reflected supply issues.

Persons: Amira Karaoud, Kurt Rankin, tightens, September's, Goldman Sachs, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci, Will Dunham Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, PNC Financial, United Auto Workers, Retailers, Treasury, Fed, ADP, Conference Board, Stanford Digital Economy, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Goldman, BLS, Thomson Locations: Louisville, U.S, WASHINGTON, Pittsburgh

☆ US private payrolls growth slows sharply in September, ADP report shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Private payrolls rose by 89,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would rise by 153,000. The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the release on Friday of the Labor Department's more comprehensive and closely watched employment report for September. The ADP report has not been a reliable gauge in trying to predict the private payrolls count in the employment report. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that private payrolls increased by 160,000 jobs in September.

Persons: Amira Karaoud, payrolls, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, ADP, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Stanford Digital Economy, Labor, of Labor Statistics Locations: Louisville, U.S

Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 4 (Reuters) - Oil edged lower on Wednesday ahead of a panel meeting of OPEC+ ministers, as the market weighed expectations of supply tightness against fears that high interest rates could reduce fuel demand. Brent crude oil futures dipped 6 cents to $90.86 a barrel by 0345 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) , fell 5 cents to $89.18 per barrel. "A resilient labour market is deemed to be providing more room for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep rates high for longer," said Yeap Jun Rong, market analyst at IG. Eight analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 500,000 barrels in the week to Sept. 29.

Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Jun Rong, Brian Martin, Daniel Hynes, Alexander Novak, Laura Sanicola, Muyu Xu, Gerry Doyle, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Federal Reserve, IG, of, Petroleum, ANZ, Reuters, Industry, American Petroleum Institute, Thomson Locations: Vaca, Patagonian, Neuquen, Argentina, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Asia, Turkey, United States, .

☆ Oil rises on tightening crude supply
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil rose in early Asian trade on Wednesday, supported by tightening global crude supply ahead of a panel meeting of OPEC+ ministers. Brent crude oil futures rose 6 cents to $90.98 a barrel by 0004 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude , rose 11 cents to $89.34 per barrel. In U.S. supply, industry data showed crude stocks fell by about 4.2 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 29, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Eight analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 500,000 barrels in the week to Sept. 29. Higher interest rates and a stronger dollar make oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which could dampen oil demand.

Persons: Brent, Alexander Novak Organizations: U.S, West Texas, of, Petroleum, American Petroleum Institute, Reuters, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Washington Republicans, U.S . House Locations: OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Asia, ., Washington, U.S

☆ S.Korea Aug factory output posts biggest gain in over 3 years as chips jump
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A factory is seen in Incheon, South Korea, May 30, 2016. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSEOUL, Oct 4 (Reuters) - South Korea's factory output unexpectedly jumped in August by the fastest rate in more than three years, led by chip production, official data showed on Wednesday. The industrial output index (KRIO=ECI) rose 5.5% in August from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 2.0% fall in July, according to Statistics Korea. That contrasts with a median 0.2% fall forecast in a Reuters survey and marks the fastest monthly gain since June 2020. On an annual basis, output was 0.5% lower, much milder than the previous month's 8.1% drop and a forecast for a 6.2% loss.

Persons: Kim Hong, Jihoon Lee, Tom Hogue, Sonali Paul 私 Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Statistics Korea Locations: Incheon, South Korea, Rights SEOUL

A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. Brent crude oil futures were up 55 cents to $91.26 a barrel by 1:01 p.m. EDT (1701 GMT), after falling to a session low of $89.50, the lowest price since Sept. 8. Higher interest rates and a stronger dollar make oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which could dampen oil demand. Talks to restart Iraqi oil exports via a crude oil pipeline that runs through Turkey are still ongoing, an Iraqi oil official told Reuters on Tuesday, a day after Turkey said operations would start again this week after nearly a six-month stoppage. U.S. crude inventories were expected to have fallen by about 500,000 barrels last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Phil Flynn, Alexander Novak, Stephanie Kelly, Natalie Grover, Laura Sanicola, Trixie Yap, Marguerita Choy, Mark Potter, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Brent, . West Texas, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Price Futures Group, Investors, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, Gulf Cooperation, BMI Research, Thomson Locations: Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Asia, Turkey, Gulf, Iraq

A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. Brent crude oil futures were down 10 cents to $90.61 a barrel by 11:15 a.m. EDT (1515 GMT), after falling to a session low of $89.50, the lowest since Sept. 8. Higher interest rates and a stronger dollar make oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which could dampen oil demand. Talks to restart Iraqi oil exports via a crude oil pipeline that runs through Turkey are still ongoing, an Iraqi oil official told Reuters on Tuesday, one day after Turkey said operations would start again this week after a near six-month stoppage. U.S. crude inventories were expected to have fallen by about 100,000 barrels last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Phil Flynn, Craig Erlam, Stephanie Kelly, Natalie Grover, Laura Sanicola, Trixie Yap, Marguerita Choy, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Wednesday, Brent, . West Texas, U.S ., U.S, Reserve, Futures, Investors, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, Gulf Cooperation, BMI Research, Thomson Locations: Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Asia, Turkey, Gulf, Iraq, .

Oil rigs are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. On its first day as the front-month, Brent futures for December delivery settled $1.49, or 1.6%, lower at $90.71 a barrel, or down about 5% from where the November contract expired on Friday. Analysts said some traders took profits after crude prices rose nearly 30% to 10-month highs in the third quarter. Higher interest rates along with a stronger dollar, which makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, could dent oil demand. A Reuters survey showed OPEC oil output rose for a second straight month in September despite cuts by Saudi Arabia.

Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Brent, Gelber, Edward Moya, Scott DiSavino, Paul Carsten, Yuka Obayashi, Emily Chow, Marguerita Choy, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., . West Texas, New York Mercantile, Intercontinental Exchanges, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Associates, U.S, . Federal Reserve, World Bank, ING, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Vaca, Patagonian, Neuquen, Argentina, U.S, Europe, Germany, Britain, China, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Russia, New York, London, Tokyo

Oil rigs are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.90, or 2.1%, to $88.89 per barrel. Energy analysts cited profit taking after crude prices rose nearly 30% in the third quarter to 10-month highs. A Reuters survey showed OPEC oil output rose for a second straight month in September despite cuts by Saudi Arabia. In Europe, manufacturing data showed the euro zone, Germany and Britain remained mired in a downturn in September, pressuring oil demand.

Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Brent, Jerome Powell, Scott DiSavino, Paul Carsten, Yuka Obayashi, Emily Chow, Kim Coghill, Kirsten Donovan, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., . West Texas, Energy, New York Mercantile, Intercontinental Exchanges, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading, U.S, U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury, ING, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, Bank, Thomson Locations: Vaca, Patagonian, Neuquen, Argentina, Friday's, U.S, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Russia, Europe, Germany, Britain, China, New York, London, Tokyo

Oil rigs are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. Brent December crude futures rose $1.04 to $93.24 a barrel by 1124 GMT after falling 90 cents on Friday. Both benchmarks rallied nearly 30% in the third quarter on forecasts of a wide crude supply deficit in the fourth quarter after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended additional supply cuts to the end of the year. A Reuters survey on Monday showed OPEC oil output rose for a second straight month in September, led by increases in Nigeria and Iran despite cuts by Saudi Arabia. Despite the brighter China news, European manufacturing data showed the euro zone, Germany and Britain all remained mired in a downturn in September - bad news for oil demand.

Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Baker Hughes, Brent, Hiroyuki Kikukawa, Haitham Al Ghais, Paul Carsten, Yuka Obayashi, Emily Chow, Kim Coghill, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, . West Texas, of, Petroleum, Reuters, NS, ING, PMI, Thomson Locations: Vaca, Patagonian, Neuquen, Argentina, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Nigeria, Iran, Turkey, Iraq, China, Germany, Britain, London, Tokyo

☆ OPEC oil output rises for second month on Nigeria, Iran - Reuters survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Last month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 27.73 million barrels per day (bpd), the survey found, up 120,000 bpd from August. Iran, which has been boosting supply despite U.S. sanctions, also pumped more, with output hitting the highest level since 2018. The second-largest increase came from Iran, the survey found, which pushed output to 3.15 million bpd. Output from the 10 OPEC members that are subject to OPEC+ supply cut agreements rose by 80,000 bpd, the survey found. Top exporter Saudi Arabia kept August and September output close to 9 million bpd, the survey found, as the country extended a voluntary 1 million bpd output cut to provide extra support for the market.

Persons: Ramzi Boudina, Ahmad Ghaddar, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Organization of, Petroleum, REUTERS, LONDON, Reuters, Analysts, OPEC, Saudi, United Arab, Petro, Logistics, Thomson Locations: Algiers, Algeria, Nigeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Washington, OPEC, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Angola

☆ South Korea September exports fall at mildest pace in 12 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

It was the 12th consecutive month of a decline in exports but the narrowest in the streak. Trade Minister Bang Moon-kyu said exports continued to improve and that they were now at the "inflection point" for a transition to growth. Imports fell 16.5% to $50.96 billion, also milder than the 22.8% drop the previous month and the median 17.6% forecast. As a result, the country posted a trade surplus of $3.70 billion in September. It was the fourth straight month in surplus and the widest since September 2021.

Persons: Asia's, Jihoon Lee, Leslie Adler, William Mallard Organizations: European Union, Trade, Thomson Locations: SEOUL, China, United States

☆ China keeps benchmark rates unchanged as economy finds footing
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.45%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.20%. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. Despite the steady LPR, some market watchers said recent property easing measures suggest cuts to the five-year LPR and more policy stimulus are likely in coming months. China cut the one-year benchmark lending rate in August but surprised markets by keeping the five-year rate unchanged.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Xing Zhaopeng, Xing, Wang Tao, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, ANZ, UBS, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, United States

☆ China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged, as expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, Sept 20 (Reuters) - China kept benchmark lending rates unchanged at a monthly fixing on Wednesday, matching market expectations, as fresh signs of economic stabilisation and a weakening yuan reduced the need for immediate monetary easing. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.45%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.20%. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. In a Reuters survey of 29 market analysts and traders, all participants predicted no change to the one-year LPR, while a vast majority of them also expected the five-year rate to remain steady. China cut the one-year benchmark lending rate in August but surprised markets by keeping the five-year rate unchanged.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Xing Zhaopeng, Xing, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, ANZ, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE

☆ A legendary economist who called the 2008 recession says another downturn is knocking on the door — and warns stocks will end up falling 40% by the end of this market cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Legendary economist Gary Shilling says the US economy is headed toward a recession — that is, if we're not already in one. "The Fed wants to make sure they've killed inflation," Shilling said. Shilling, who called the 2008 recession, pointed out that recessions sometimes don't start until the Fed has already begun to cut rates. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTrusted recession indicators are also signaling that a downturn is coming, Shilling said. The Conference BoardAs a result of the recession, Shilling expects stocks to fall significantly.

Persons: Gary Shilling, we're, It's, Shilling, Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, Louis, they're, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Conference, Societe Generale Locations: there's

☆ China's central bank set to boost liquidity but keep policy rate steady
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI, Sept 14 (Reuters) - China's central bank is expected to boost liquidity while keeping the borrowing cost steady when rolling over its medium-term policy loans on Friday, a Reuters survey showed, after a string of data showed some signs of economic stabilisation. China has already lowered the medium-term policy rate twice since June to stimulate credit demand and support a faltering economic recovery. New bank lending in China beat expectations by nearly quadrupling in August from July's level, as the central bank sought to shore up economic growth amid soft demand at home and abroad. To revive broad credit demand and rescue the troubled property sector, China unexpectedly cut the MLF rate last month. For this reason alone, it seems unlikely that the PBOC will embrace large-scale rate cuts."

Persons: Frances Cheung, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: People's Bank of China, OCBC Bank, U.S, Capital Economics, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, China, United States, OCBC Bank .

☆ Euro, sterling slide versus dollar ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six peers including yen, euro and sterling, held firm, though moves were subdued, up 0.13% to 104.73, as traders awaited the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) reading for August. The release comes just a week before Federal Reserve officials gather to decide on interest rate policy. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0731 as markets raised their bets on further ECB rate hikes despite recent data showing the decline in euro zone business activity accelerated faster than initially thought last month. A source told Reuters that the ECB expects inflation in the 20-nation euro zone to remain above 3% next year, bolstering the case for a 10th consecutive interest rate increase on Thursday. YEN RETRACES GAINSThe yen fell as traders further digested comments from Japan's top central banker on a possible early exit from its negative interest rate policy.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, BoE, Stephen Gallo, Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank . Sterling, YEN RETRACES, Hiroshige Seko, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Joice Alves, Brigid Riley, Alison Williams, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Federal, ECB, FX, BMO Capital Markets, U.S, CPI, Reuters, Deutsche Bank ., Bank of Japan, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, London, Tokyo

☆ Dollar edges up ahead of inflation reading, euro awaits ECB decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six peers including yen, euro and sterling, held firm, though moves were subdued, up 0.1% to 104.70, as traders awaited the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) reading for August. The release comes just a week before Federal Reserve officials gather to decide on interest rate policy. Elsewhere, the euro edged 0.1% lower to $1.0742 ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. A source told Reuters that the ECB expects inflation in the 20-nation euro zone to remain above 3% next year, bolstering the case for a 10th consecutive interest rate increase on Thursday. YEN RETRACES GAINSThe yen fell as traders further digested comments from Japan's top central banker on a possible early exit from its negative interest rate policy.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank . Sterling, YEN RETRACES, Hiroshige Seko, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Joice Alves, Brigid Riley, Alison Williams Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Commerzbank, ECB, Reuters, Deutsche Bank ., Bank of Japan, Fed, Thomson Locations: Japan, London, Tokyo

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's trip to China last month had promised some economic and trade detente between the two superpowers now at loggerheads. And none of the 222 funds polled expected China economic growth to be any higher next year than this - mirroring a recent Reuters survey of domestic and overseas banks and investors. As these sorts of surveys go, there's an awful lot in there that could spell "peak gloom". Indeed, shorting China equities was deemed the second "most crowded trade" behind long exposure to supercharged Big Tech stocks. Even if the economy turns, political catalysts for a return to China may be slow in coming.

Persons: Aly, Gina Raimondo's, it's, Jamie Dimon, Jay Clayton, Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton, Willem Sels, Mike Dolan, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, . Commerce, Bank of, Big Tech, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, JPMorgan, Investments, The Ontario Teachers, Caisse, Franklin, HSBC Private Banking, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, loggerheads, Wall, Asia, Silicon Valley, Hong Kong, Temasek, Bridgewater, Blackrock, India, Indonesia, Washington, United States

☆ Higher gasoline prices seen boosting US inflation in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"It's going to be a mixed picture, with headline inflation picking due to higher gasoline prices and core inflation remaining contained," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The Fed would be encouraged by the continued moderation trend in core inflation, but it's still too high." While that would mark the second straight month of a pick up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI is forecast to have increased by 4.3%. "Under our new forecast for CPI health insurance, we continue to expect core CPI and especially core services ex.

Persons: Sam Bullard, it's, Ronnie Walker, Goldman Sachs, James Knightley, Lucia Mutikani, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, U.S . Energy Information Administration, CPI, Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, ING, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S, I'm, New York

☆ Feeling the heat: 44% of Japan firms see earnings hit from extreme weather - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( David Dolan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Satoshi Sugiyama/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Some 44% of Japanese companies see extreme weather events around the globe hitting earnings, a Reuters survey showed, highlighting the impact of scorching heat waves and torrential rains on firms in the world's third-largest economy. Disaster-prone Japan is no stranger to extreme weather events, including typhoons, floods and blistering heat. "Infrastructure is likely to be disrupted due to extreme weather conditions, which could result in emergency spending and lower productivity," wrote a manager at a company in the transport sector. The monthly Reuters Corporate Survey of 502 large and medium-sized non-financial Japanese firms, in which 248 responded, showed a majority of non-manufacturers had already felt or expected to feel the effects of extreme weather on their earnings. Flooding has been a particular headache for Japanese companies.

Persons: Satoshi Sugiyama, Japan Inc's, Fumio, David Dolan, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Mitsubishi Motor, Rights, Reuters Corporate Survey, Reuters, Nikkei Research, Investment, Thomson Locations: Kurashiki, Japan

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