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[1/3] Fed Governor Philip Jefferson testifies before a Senate Banking Committee hearing on his nomination to be the Federal Reserve's next vice chair, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., June 21, 2023. Senators also confirmed Fed Governor Lisa Cook to a fresh 14-year term at the central bank, though they did so in a 51-47 vote that broke along partisan lines. Both Jefferson and Cook have a PhD in economics and became Fed governors in May of 2022 after long careers in academia. The U.S. central bank's vice chair, whose term is four years, also traditionally serves as the Fed chief's go-to official on policy communications, underscoring key messages and clarifying potential misinterpretations. The confirmations of Jefferson, Cook and Kugler would make the board the most diverse in the central bank's more-than-100-year history.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Jonathan Ernst, Lisa Cook, Cook, Jerome Powell, Powell, John Williams, Adriana Kugler, Jefferson, Kugler, Ann Saphir, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Capitol, REUTERS, U.S, Senate, Federal Reserve, Senators, Jefferson, New York Fed, World Bank, Fed, Latina, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

Federal Reserve Governor and Vice Chair-designate Philip Jefferson poses for a photograph on the sidelines of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 25, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate on Tuesday voted overwhelmingly to clear the way for the confirmation this week of Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson to be vice chair of the U.S. central bank. President Joe Biden has also nominated Fed Governor Lisa Cook to a new 14-year term, and picked World Bank economist Adriana Kugler to fill the last open seat of the seven-member Fed Board. The Senate will vote on Cook and Kugler’s nominations in the next few days, Senator Sherrod Brown said before Jefferson vote. Jefferson and Cook have both voted for every rate hike since they joined the Fed in May 2022.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Ann Saphir, Jerome Powell, Joe Biden, Lisa Cook, Adriana Kugler, Cook, Sherrod Brown, Jefferson, Chuck Schumer, Richard Cowan, Leslie Adler, Lincoln Organizations: Federal, Governor, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Senate, Federal Reserve, Jefferson, World Bank, Fed, Committee, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

Overall U.S. banks' cash assets were $3.26 trillion as of Aug. 23, up 5.4% from the end of 2022. The SVB failure triggered a sudden dash for cash at banks, which within two weeks had bulked up cash assets to $3.49 trillion, the highest level since April 2022. It has $420 billion in cash and $990 billionof what it calls high quality liquidity assets and other unencumbered securities, it said. "The good news is for some of these banks re-investing cash is that we have pretty high short-term rates," said Mac Sykes, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. "It's definitely opportunistic and advantageous to be investing short-term securities."

Persons: Carlo Allegri, David Fanger, Moody's, Brendan Browne, Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley, Peter Marshall, Mac Sykes, Saeed Azhar, Ann Saphir, Niket, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski, Richard Chang Organizations: Bank of America, REUTERS, FRANCISCO, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Federal, Graphics, Reuters, JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, Regulators, FDIC, Gabelli, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Silicon

Sept 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates, traders bet on Friday after a government report showed the unemployment rate rose last month and wage growth cooled. Futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate had already priced in only a slight chance of a rate hike this month. "This report is likely to put the Fed on hold in September, and if we get more positive inflation news in September and October, the Fed is likely done, and we’ve seen the end of the rate hikes," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. "In the labor market, some progress is being made in bringing demand and supply into better balance, but the job market is still strong,” she told a European Central Bank conference shortly after the latest jobs report. Traders currently see the Fed likely on hold through April 2024, with rate cuts to start in May.

Persons: we’ve, Peter Cardillo, Loretta Mester, Ann Saphir, Stephen Culp, Michael S, Lucia Mutikani, Alex Richardson, Andrea Ricci, Marguerita Choy Organizations: U.S . Federal, Labor Department, Employers, Spartan Capital Securities, Fed, Cleveland Fed, European Central Bank, Traders, Derby, Thomson

"The longer we let inflation remain above 2%, we're building in a higher and higher price level," she said, and that hurts American households. "I'm going to have to reassess that because, again, it's going to be, how quickly do you think inflation is moving down?" "I do not want to be in a position of prematurely loosening policy," Mester said. Fed projections submitted in June show a median forecast for 2.1% inflation by the end of 2025; Mester said hers was for 2% inflation. The Fed's next and possibly last rate hike "doesn't necessarily have to be September, but I think this year," she said.

Persons: JACKSON, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Loretta Mester, Mester, Ann Saphir, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: , WYOMING, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

Since 2007, worldwide public debt has ballooned from 40% to 60% of GDP, on average, with debt-to-GDP ratios even higher in the advanced countries. That includes the United States, the world's biggest economy, where government debt is now more than double the nation's yearly economic output. Reuters GraphicsDespite mounting worries about the growth-crimping implications of high debt, "debt reduction, while desirable in principle, is unlikely in practice," Serkan Arslanalp, an economist at the International Monetary Fund, and Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, wrote in a paper. Inflation, unless it surprises to the upside over an extended period, does little to reduce debt ratios, and debt restructuring for developing countries has become more elusive as the pool of creditors has broadened, Arslanalp and Eichengreen wrote. "High public debts are here to stay," they wrote.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jackson, Barry Eichengreen, Eichengreen, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Kansas City Federal, International Monetary Fund, University of California, Thomson Locations: Saudi, , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, United States, Berkeley

Stocks: The S&P 500 index rose 0.6% to 2874.69. In fact, the Fed had begun cutting its policy rate just weeks before his 2019 Jackson Hole appearance to offset headwinds to growth from then-President Donald Trump's trade war with China. Powell's "Challenges for Monetary Policy" speech signaled more rate cuts were likely coming. Stocks: The S&P 500 index rose 0.2% to 3484.55. Stocks: The S&P 500 index rose 0.9% to 4509.37.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jim Urquhart, he's, Graphics Powell, Janet Yellen, hawkish Powell, Lean, Powell, Donald Trump's, Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, reappoint, Stocks, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Kansas City Fed, Graphics, Trump, Reuters, Fed, Democratic, Thomson Locations: Teton, Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, China, United States

REUTERS/Sarah SilbigerAug 10 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to raise interest rates again in 2023 and will probably start cutting them early next year, traders bet on Thursday, after a U.S. government report showed consumer prices rose only moderately last month. Traders of futures tied to the Fed's policy rate now see less than a 10% chance that the U.S. central bank will increase its benchmark overnight interest rate from its current 5.25%-5.50% range at a Sept. 19-20 policy meeting. The Fed's first rate cut is priced into the futures contracts by March of 2024. The Fed has driven its policy rate up by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 to bring inflation back down to its 2% goal. "There's always a chance we get reacceleration of inflation prints after October, but I don't think that's going to spur Fed action."

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Guy Lebas, Janney Montgomery Scott, Ann Saphir, Karen Brettell, Lucia Mutikani, Bernadette Baum, Paul Simao Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Traders, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

Household debt ticked up 0.1% to $17.06 trillion, as mortgage balances - the biggest portion, and typically the biggest driver, of overall household debt - were largely unchanged. But the quarter-to-quarter trend appeared less alarming, with New York Fed researchers noting a leveling out near pre-pandemic levels in the most recent two quarters. New York Fed researchers attributed the decline to the timing of the academic year, as well as to some small forgiveness programs kicking in. Overall mortgage balances ticked down to $12.01 trillion, from $12.04 trillion in the prior quarter, reflecting some changes in credit reporting that are expected to reverse next quarter, New York Fed researchers said. Originations rose about 11% to $179 billion, reflecting the sharp rise in car prices; the number of newly opened loans remains below pre-pandemic levels, the report said.

Persons: Lee Jae, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, New York Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, New York, Reuters, New York Fed, Mortgage, Auto, Thomson Locations: Seoul, U.S

Nelson previously worked at the Fed, where he was involved in discount window policy, including changes made 20 years ago aimed at reducing barriers in part by no longer requiring banks to first exhaust other emergency liquidity resources. Reuters GraphicsA recent Reuters analysis shows that many small banks, and even some large banks, do not conduct frequent tests of the discount window, calling into question their readiness to use it when needed. In recent months the Fed has undertaken a push to get more banks to sign up to and test access to the discount window, and in late July the Fed and fellow bank regulators issued a reminder to banks to do so. Regulatory agencies should make it clear that bank examiners will not view discount window use negatively, he wrote. Bank executives say the potential for public disclosure and negative treatment by bank supervisors discourage use of the discount window, according to a Fed survey of senior bank financial officers taken in May and released last week.

Persons: Bill Nelson, Nelson, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Fed, Bank Policy Institute, Bank, Thomson

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., July 26, 2023. Other parts of the Labor Department report were less encouraging for Fed policymakers counting on a labor market softening to put more downward pressure on inflation. Traders of contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate now see less than a 30% chance of another rate hike by the end of this year, down from about a 35% chance before Friday's jobs report. "I think overall this still does point to a labor market that is slowly but steadily heading toward a soft landing," said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor. There are several more key data releases that will shape Fed policymakers' views before the next policy meeting in September.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, Daniel Zhao, Kathy Bostjancic, Ann Saphir, Tim Ahmann, Lucia Mutikani, Jason Neely, Kevin Liffey, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg Television, Labor Department, Chicago Fed, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

"So why not be in a situation where you're just much more ready in case you...need to access this discount window?" An analysis of Fed data by Reuters, though, shows a lot still needs to be done to meet that goal. All told, about 3,800 banks borrowed from the discount window during the 11-year period detailed in the central bank data. The biggest banks also stepped up to borrow so as to reduce discount window stigma. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said small banks should think of the discount window as a backup.

Persons: Brittany Hosea, Jerome Powell, I’ve, Lorie Logan, Banks, Goldman Sachs, Huberto Ennis, Michelle Bowman, Brad Tidwell, SVB, Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed's Ennis, Neel Kashkari, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Bank, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Dallas, U.S, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Richmond Fed, National Credit Union Association, Chicago Fed, Federal Home Loan Bank, Minneapolis, Home Loan Bank, Thomson Locations: Santa Clara , California, U.S, Silicon, Washington, While California, Texas, Logan's, New Mexico, Louisiana, Henderson , Texas

On Tuesday, Goolsbee said his own decision at the Fed's next meeting in September will be driven by what happens on prices. And those metrics suggest, Goolsbee said, that the Fed is on the "golden path" of disinflation without a recession. But, he added, he does not see a tight connection between labor market tightness and inflation - meaning, he believes that inflation can fade even as the job market stays healthy. The Fed's September rate call will depend on what happens with inflation, as will how long the Fed will keep rates high and when it will start cutting, he said. "The answer is, it totally depends on whether we're able to navigate the path and get inflation down without a recession," he said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Obama, Brendan McDermid, Goolsbee, that's, Banks, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: University of Chicago, Democracy, REUTERS, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Reuters, U.S, Fed, Labor Department, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

The Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, or SLOOS, also showed that banks expect to further tighten standards over the rest of 2023. Monday's SLOOS report - which Fed policymakers had in hand last week when they decided to deliver an 11th interest-rate hike after skipping one at their June meeting - suggests credit tightening is ongoing. For small firms, a net 49.2% of banks said credit terms were stiffer, versus 46.7% in the last survey. Smaller net shares of banks reported tightening standards for auto loans, though terms for credit cards did tighten somewhat. While still weak, demand for auto loans was the least soft in four quarters, while demand for credit card loans was essentially flat after two straight negative quarters.

Persons: Monday's, You've, you've, Jerome Powell, Daniel Silver, Ann Saphir, Nick Zieminski, Dan Burns, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Federal, Survey, Reuters, Thomson

He said in the statement released by the St. Louis Fed that the regional bank "is well-positioned for ongoing success and impact." The St. Louis Fed said Kathleen O'Neill Paese, the regional bank's first vice president and chief operating officer, will act as interim president. The regional bank said its search committee will look nationally for a new leader, noting that its search will be "robust, transparent, fair and inclusive." While they operate under the oversight of the Board of Governors in Washington, regional Fed banks are quasi-private institutions technically owned by member banks. With Bullard's exit, there will be two unfilled regional Fed bank slots.

Persons: James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed, Mitchell, Daniels, Jr, doesn't, Tim Duy, Duy, Derek Tang, LH Meyers, Wrightson ICAP, Kathleen Bostjancic, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Louis Fed's, Esther George, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Louis Federal Reserve, U.S, Purdue, St, School of Business, Federal, Macro, Fed, Purdue University, Minneapolis Fed, Nationwide, Brookings Institution, Governors, Kansas City Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Indiana, St, Washington

The Fed has raised interest rates by 5 percentage points since March 2022 to bring down the highest U.S. inflation in four decades. "We may end up doing less because we need to do less; we may end up doing just that; we could end up doing more. Fed policymakers are widely expected to deliver a rate hike at their meeting later this month, a move that would bring the policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range. That could buttress the case that price pressures are weakening, which in turn could take some pressure off the central bank to hike rates again. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, speaking at yet another event on Monday, repeated his view that the Fed can be "patient" on rates and allow restrictive policy to bring down inflation without further action by the central bank.

Persons: Mary Daly, Daly, Jerome Powell, Ann Saphir, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Mester, Dan Burns, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Brookings Institution, San Francisco Federal, REUTERS, New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, San Francisco , California

"That would be a Fed triumph and that can involve a couple of rate increases over this year." Remarks from Goolsbee previously sounded more skeptical of the need for further rate hikes on top of what the Fed has already done. The report is suggestive of labor market cooling, Goolsbee said, and the full effect of the Fed's 500 basis points of rate hikes since last March is still to come. Financial markets are pricing a Fed rate hike when policymakers next meet, in two and a half weeks. Services inflation even pre-pandemic was typically higher than the Fed's 2% goal, he said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, we're, Ann Saphir, Chizu Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, CNBC, Fed, Thomson

Last week Fed policymakers decided to hold the policy rate steady at the current 5%-5.25% range, interrupting what had been a string of 10 straight increases aimed at stomping inflation. The unemployment rate has crept up to 3.7% but is lower than the 4% rate Fed policymakers estimate is consistent with a fully employed American workforce on a sustainable basis. That's one more reason, she said, to slow down on rate hikes. "No wonder there's a couple of extra rate hikes," Daly said. Two more quarter-point rate hikes this year, Daly said, is "a very reasonable projection at this point," she said.

Persons: Florence Lo, Mary Daly, Daly, what's, Banks, I've, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Reuters, Thomson

[1/2] The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. They expect the Fed to raise its target rate to 5.25%-5.5% at the July 25-26 meeting. And it's quite likely that if the Fed does hold off on rates it will prep markets for action later on. The last Fed forecasts released at the March meeting had penciled in a 5.1% stopping point for the federal funds rate target, where it is now. Each Fed policymaker's view of the appropriate year-end policy rate is depicted by an anonymous "dot" on a grid.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, who've, Wrightson ICAP, Wrightson, it's, Jerome Powell's, ’ ”, Powell, Ryan Sweet, Morgan Stanley, Oscar Munoz, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of America, Citibank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Oxford Economics, Securities, Derby, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

Harker said he sees promising signs the Fed's rate hikes so far -- five full percentage points since March 2022 -- are having a cooling effect, particularly on housing prices. Uncertainty over inflation dynamics and the pace of credit tightening make him wary of continuing to raise rates. Harker said he expects the economy to grow less than 1% this year, and for the unemployment rate, now at 3.4%, to rise to around 4.4%. He said he could envision the Fed cutting rates if unemployment rises significantly faster, or inflation falls more rapidly, than he currently forecasts. "We don't have to keep moving rates up, and then have to reverse course quickly."

Persons: Patrick Harker, Harker, Corp's, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Philadelphia Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson

Meanwhile districts reported that the pace of inflation had slowed, with prices rising "moderately" and contacts in most parts of the country expecting a similar pace of price increases in the coming months. But many Fed policymakers since then have signaled they may rather wait before undertaking any further policy tightening. Fed policymakers have said credit conditions are a key input to their calculations for monetary policy-setting. About half of districts reported no change in economic activity in recent weeks, the report showed, while four reported small increases and two reported "slight to moderate declines." At the St. Louis Fed, banking contacts said loan demand had softened and they expected further weakening ahead.

Persons: Louis, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci, Chizu Organizations: Federal, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Cleveland Fed, Minneapolis Fed, St, Louis Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon

He said the full impact of central bank rate increases to date had yet to be felt. “I try ... to make it a point not to prejudge and make decisions when you are still weeks out from the meeting," Goolsbee said. "If you did not do that, the consequences for the financial system and for the broader economy would be extremely negative," Goolsbee said. "Even the anticipation of these problems does have consequences on the economy, it does have consequences on financial markets." Still to come before the Fed's June rate decision is another monthly read on the U.S. unemployment rate, now at a decades-low of 3.4%, and on consumer price inflation.

And an increase in underlying core inflation to 4.7%, up from a 4.6% pace in March, underscored the less-than-steady progress on the Fed's inflation fight. In March Mester had already expected the Fed to raise the policy rate beyond its current 5.00%-5.25% range. Fed policymakers also say they are watching credit conditions closely, though Mester on Friday said that so far she's not seeing worrisome "extra" tightening from the recent regional bank failures. Odds in futures markets are running three to one in favor of a rate hike by then. Other Fed policymakers have echoed that hawkish call.

But Fed officials on Monday said the jury is very much out. Bostic said businesses in his southeastern U.S. Fed district "are telling me we think you're close to overdoing it ... Investors have consistently bet that the central bank, due to some combination of recession or a faster-than-expected drop in inflation, will be cutting rates by later this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." In addition, he says the full impact of Fed rate hikes has yet to be felt.

Indeed a third U.S. central banker speaking early in the day, Governor Michelle Bowman, signaled she feels further policy tightening may yet be appropriate, unless inflation drops more convincingly. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate five full percentage points over the past 14 months - the fastest pace of tightening in 40 years. Yes," Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said at a monetary policy conference at the Hoover Institution. That's notable from a policymaker who was among the first and most vocal to push for sharp rate hikes to fight inflation, back in mid-2021. But since then, he said, the Fed's rate hikes have helped bring down what had been a worrying rise in inflation expectations that, if left unchecked, could have sent actual inflation spiraling out of control.

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