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Leading into earnings season, analysts typically do very little as they await company guidance. However, this earnings season is shaping up differently. Point 1: Earnings are expected to be up for the third quarter, but the extraordinary profits of oil companies are distorting the results. Q3 earnings Ests: S & P 500 All sectors: up 4.1% Excluding Energy: down 2.6% Source: Refinitiv Point 2: The companies that have reported early have generally been disappointing. Traders are focused on fourth quarter estimates, where four sectors are already negative, and technology is just barely positive.
We are entering third quarter earnings season, and the level of cluelessness has never been so high. Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey called the start of third quarter earnings season "A Dud." With the S & P 500 closing at 3,585 for the third quarter, the forward earnings multiple now stands at 15 times 2023 earnings, according to S & P Global. S & P 500: Forward Earnings Multiple 2023: 15.0 5-year average: 21.7 Avg. More importantly, earnings estimates for the "growth" part of the S & P have been getting cut for both the third and fourth quarters.
Both metrics for determining future stock prices (earnings estimates and the market multiple) could now move in a very wide "band". A wide range of outcomes implies more uncertainty, more volatility. For example, what is the right earnings estimate for the next twelve months for the S & P 500? "S & P 500 EPS estimates will likely be coming down at increasing rates in the weeks ahead," Nick Raich, who tracks corporate earnings at Earnings Scout, told me. 232 x 17 = 3,944 for the S & P 500, more than 150 points above where it is now.
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