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The S & P 500 bottomed out on October 12 last year with a close of 3,577. Lopsided gains While the S & P has seen healthy gains off the bottom, the gains have been lopsided. He counts 11 periods of notable non-recession declines in the S & P 500 since WWII. Money keeps pouring into short-term bonds and money market funds For the first time in decades, bonds and money markets are serious competitors for stocks. A lot of people seem very content to leave money in 5% money market funds, perceiving little risk/reward in owning stocks.
Persons: Russell, Todd Sohn, Strategas, Covid, Sohn, Sam Stovall, Sam Organizations: Growth, CFRA Research, U.S .
.SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 1-month Since then, it's been one excuse after another. Everything Tuesday was down about 1.0-1.25% midday, including the equal-weight S & P 500 (RSP) the market-cap weighted S & P 500, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the small-cap Russell 2000, but most ended down a fraction of a percent. At nearly 5% yield, money market funds are still sucking in money, even with the S & P 500 up 18% this year. I mentioned Monday that money market inflows reaccelerated last week: $21 billion worth of inflows were added, according to Goldman Sachs. "The pace of money market flows reflects a larger apathy towards stock," Todd Sohn from Strategas told clients.
Persons: it's, Moody's, Mike O'Rourke, Dow Jones, Sellers, Harry Whitton, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Todd Sohn, Strategas, David Kelly Organizations: Bank of Japan, Jones Trading, Regional Banking, Nasdaq, Chief Global, Morgan Asset Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S
Test is underway to see how low markets can go
  + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Right now, the S & P 500 is only 2.4% off its closing high on July 31. You'd think the stock market run would kill the big inflows into money market funds that happened in the first half of the year, but you'd be wrong. Money market inflows reaccelerated last week: $21 billion worth of inflows were added, according to Goldman Sachs. U.S. money market fund assets hit $6.7 trillion, the highest level in more than 13 years. There have been renewed inflows into energy, which is on a tear due to tighter oil supplies, and the equal-weight S & P 500 ( RSP ), all signs that the "broadening out" story is still alive.
Persons: Fitch, Sam Stovall, Jonathan Krinsky, Gold, You'd, Goldman Sachs, It's Organizations: Nasdaq
ETF strategies to broaden beyond the mega-cap tech rally
  + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Investors looking to diversify beyond the tech sector runup this year can consider a handful of alternative ETFs to reduce ballooning concentration risk, said one ETF strategist. "The consternation over the mega-cap tech names driving the market — I understand it," Todd Sohn, Strategas ETF and technical strategist, told CNBC's Bob Pisani on "ETF Edge" on Monday. "It's a very under-the-radar fund," Sohn said. "[When] you think of Vanguard, you think VOO [and] VTI , their fixed-income products. For tactical investors looking to diversify into a more balanced fund, Sohn recommended the RSP, which tracks the equally weighted performance of all S&P 500 stocks.
Persons: Todd Sohn, CNBC's Bob Pisani, " Sohn, Russell, Uber, Sohn Organizations: RSP, Blackstone, Marvell Technology, Vanguard
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) , which has even heavier exposure to Big Tech names, has brought in $5.8 billion of its own. "It's not really the overconcentration in the big names that worries me. It's actually the concentration in the big names compared to their earnings contribution," said Oktay Kavrak, director of communications and strategy at Leverage Shares. Whether you're passive or active, you probably have enough exposure to Nvidia and Apple and Microsoft," said Todd Sohn, ETF strategist at Strategas. There's a whiff of it, a scent of it," Sohn said, pointing out that money market funds attracted more cash than equity funds last week.
Persons: Matthew Bartolini, Bartolini, It's, Oktay Kavrak, Todd Sohn, . Sohn, Kavrak, Sohn, Cathie Wood's Organizations: Vanguard, Big Tech, SPDR, Street Global Advisors, Microsoft, Nvidia, Nasdaq, RSP, Apple, Trust, Technology, Index, Fund, The Vanguard FTSE Locations: SPDR Americas, Europe
ETF experts Todd Sohn and VettaFi's Dave Nadig believe a second winning half is in store for technology and artificial intelligence plays. Sohn, Strategas' ETF and technical strategist, particularly likes Roundhill Generative AI and Technology ETF (CHAT). "What I like about [CHAT] is that it's actively managed," Sohn told CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week. Sohn also recommends Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) for those interested in introducing more industrials into their portfolio. "I like [BOTZ] if you want to get away from tech because you already have tech exposure in your portfolio.
Persons: Todd Sohn, Dave Nadig, Sohn, it's, CNBC's, Nadig, you've Organizations: Technology, Robotics, Intelligence, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, RSP, JPMorgan
Despite a strong first half performance for the broad equity markets, ETF equity flows have been subpar this year. The big money has gone into Treasury ETFs and money market funds. First half inflows were subpar The first half ended with a modest acceleration of inflows into equity ETFs. Regardless, first half equity inflows were still well short of the prior years' first half activity. Join us Wednesday at 1:10 p.m. on ETF Edge for our second half ETF playbook.
Persons: Todd Sohn, . Sohn, Sohn, " Sohn, Dave Nadig Organizations: Tech, Energy, P Tech, Nasdaq, Fidelity, Renaissance Capital, Technology, Nvidia, Microsoft, Edge, VettaFi
Tech stocks led the way higher for the market in the first half. Bank of America expects other names to join in on the rally during the second half. The first half of 2023 was the best for the S & P 500 since 2019, surging 15.9%. Only 25% of stocks outperformed the broader market index, according to Savita Subramanian, the bank's head of U.S. and quantitative strategy. The Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) , which tracks a version of the S & P 500 in which stocks are weight equally rather than by market cap, is up just 5% year to date.
Persons: Dow Jones, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Dow, RSP Locations: St
The fund puts an equal amount of money into each stock in the S & P 500 and is rebalanced quarterly, diluting the effect of the biggest companies. Through Thursday, the RSP was up about 4.6% in June compared with 4.5% for the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) . "Despite what many consider the market's limited participation, the A/D index for the S & P has reached an all-time high [recently]. Here is the full list of top five ETFs by fund flows over the past week, according to FactSet. Similarly, the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) brought in more than $400 million over the past week.
Persons: it's, Wellington, Frank Gretz Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, RSP, Trust, Wellington Shields, Corporate
The 60/40 portfolio doesn't work anymore, according to Bank of America. If the 60/40 portfolio was on life support last year, this year its demise is now "confirmed," Woodard wrote. Bonds require 40% of the assets in a 60/40 portfolio but have delivered only 25% of the returns since 1920, he noted. Weak bond returns will lead to "another lost decade" for the 60/40 portfolio, in Woodard's words. For income, Bank of America's researchers unveiled a strategy called "dynamic prudent yield" that promises to beat bond indexes while carrying less risk.
Persons: Bonds, Jared Woodard, Woodard, Woodward, Schwab Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, RSP, Vanguard, Energy, P Metals, Mining, Uranium, Research, Government Bond ETF, First Trust, Income, Muni Bond ETF, Muni, Blackstone Senior Loan, of America, Bond, SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF, US, iShares, Securities ETF, VanEck Preferred Securities, Financials, Bloomberg, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) have attracted inflows of over $4 billion and about $1.8 billion, respectively, so far this month, according to FactSet. Both funds provide investors a way to get broad exposure to the stock market while reducing the impact of names such as Nvidia and Alphabet on their portfolios. "Interest in funds outside of core S & P exposure has increased with notable inflows and volumes into the equal-weight S & P 500 (RSP) and Russell 2000 (IWM) recently. These funds — along with a host of other non-Tech exposed ETFs — are seemingly a preferred way to play a catch-up trade," Strategas ETF strategist Todd Sohn said in a note to clients Tuesday. Another option for investors looking to diversify away from large technology companies could be international funds, Sohn said.
Persons: Russell, Todd Sohn, Sohn Organizations: RSP, Nvidia, Tech, Nasdaq, Revenue Locations: Japan
But for investors worried that more Fed rate hikes in the coming months could tip the economy into recession, fixed income might be a more attractive bet. "Municipal bond issuers appear well poised to weather a possible recession in 2023/24. Bank of America has the equivalent of a buy rating on several municipal bond ETFs, including JPMorgan Ultra-Short Municipal Income ETF (JMST) and the iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) . Some large funds that could fit that description include the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) , the Schwab Intermediate-Term US Treasury ETF (SCHR) and the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT). The actively managed Flexible Income ETF (BINC) launched in May and has about $76 million in assets so far, according to FactSet.
Persons: Michelle Cluver, Andrew Slimmon, Slimmon, Russell, Jared Woodard, Woodard, Cluver, Rick Rieder Organizations: Federal, Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, RSP, Nasdaq, Bank of America, JPMorgan Ultra, Muni Bond ETF, Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury, BlackRock
A new bull market? The S & P 500 is trading Friday morning above its recent 52-week closing high of 4,305, which it hit on Aug. 16, 2022. These are the kind of stats that were discussed: While the S & P 500 is up 11.8% year to date, the equal-weight S & P 500 (RSP), which is the "average stock," is up a measly 2.9%. While the S & P 500 is 20% above its recent low, about one-third of the S & P 500 (about 160 stocks) remain 20% below their 52-week high. While we are all waiting for it to start to feel like a bull market, the market this week has begun to broaden out a bit.
Persons: I'm, Piper Sandler, Gary Gensler's, Bank of America's Savita Subramanian Organizations: Piper, Piper Sandler Global Exchange, SEC, Bank of America's
The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) , brought in nearly $1.2 billion in cash over the past week, according to FactSet. Investors bought into the iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY) . The interest in high yield debt comes ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. "High yield's kind of in a sweet spot right now. The spread between high yield and safer debt could widen in coming months if the labor market continues to weaken, but the high yield market appears to be of better quality than in previous economic cycles, Silapachai said.
Persons: It's, Komson Silapachai, Silapachai Organizations: Investors, Sage Advisory, P Regional, Corporate Locations: Austin , Texas
Sprawling across 43,500 square meters (468,000 square feet), it is now Asia’s largest timber building, by floor area. Some countries now even allow for high-rises (or “plyscrapers”), like Milwaukee, Wisconsin’s 25-story Ascent, which at 284 feet, is the world’s tallest mass timber structure. Advocates for mass timber point to the relatively slow and predictable rate at which the material burns. Many of the purported benefits of mass timber are, however, environmental. If a tree is then turned into mass timber, this embodied carbon is sequestered, or “locked in,” rather than being returned to the atmosphere.
Persons: Lee Kuan Yew, sunlit, Gaia, Toyo Ito, , , ” Ito, Ito, Ho Teck Hua, Organizations: Singapore CNN —, Nanyang Technological University’s, Singapore, CNN, RSP, Nanyang Technological, NTU, Construction Authority, NTU Singapore Locations: Singapore, Singapore CNN — Singapore, , Nanyang, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Europe, NTU Singapore, Milwaukee, Asia
But market breadth, or the measure of how wide-reaching a rally is, has ebbed. CanaccordGenuity technical analyst Javed Mirza said in a note to clients on Monday that an "intermediate-term equity market correction looms" if market breadth does not improve. Over the past three months, the Nasdaq 100 has gained more than 18%, and the S & P 500 has advanced nearly 6%. Meanwhile, the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) has fallen more than 3%. According to Bespoke Investment Group, 90 stocks in the S & P 500 have hit 52-week highs this month.
As big-cap tech approaches new highs, some put more emphasis on equal weight. With more than $7 trillion indexed to the S & P 500, this is not an academic debate. With the S & P 500 up 8% this year, the average stock, as represented by the S & P Equal Weight ETF (RSP), is up a measly 0.5%. The RSP has underperformed the market-cap weighted S & P 500 month-to-date, quarter-to-date, and year-to-date. An argument could be made that active managers invest more like an equal-weight index.
Simply put: the big indexes are doing OK, but the average stock is not. Big-cap tech is back but not a lot else If you just owned the top seven stocks in the S & P 500 , you'd think this was a rip-roaring quarter for passive investors in the S & P 500. Market cap vs. equal weight S & P 500 in Q2 S & P 500 up 0.6% Equal-weight S & P 500 down 1.1% There is a particularly large divergence in technology this quarter: Market cap vs. equal weight Technology S & P 500 in Q2 S & P 500 Technology: up 0.2% Equal-weight: down 6.1% What this tells us is that the average stock, and particularly the average technology stock, is underperforming the market. In the S & P 500, this peaked at a little over 70% in early February. The simple way to interpret this is that less than half of the stocks in the S & P 500 are in an uptrend.
This is the 20th anniversary of the launch of the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). The index weighs all 500 stocks in the S & P 500 equally, as opposed to the S & P 500, the modern version of which was launched in 1957 as a market-cap weighted index. "Broad, market cap weighted indexes are the purest form of indexing," Ben Johnson, head of client solutions at Morningstar, told me. With north of $7 trillion indexed to the S & P 500, and getting larger every year, there is an awful lot of passive money at stake. Invesco says that over the last 20 years, an investment in the RSP has outperformed the market cap weight S & P 500: Market cap weighted investing vs. equal-weighting (last 20 years) S & P 500 (SPY) + 553% Equal weight S & P 500 + 667% Source: Invesco What do you own when you own an equal-weight S & P 500?
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvesco Global Head of ETFs on growth potential for Nasdaq, equal weight, and low volatility fundsCNBC's Bob Pisani sat down at the Exchange ETF Conference in Miami Beach with Invesco Global Head of ETFs, Anna Paglia, to discuss the growth she expects this year. She runs the #4 ETF complex in the U.S. Her Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is the 5th largest ETF with $160 billion in assets, with the Junior Nasdaq 100 (QQQJ) also gaining adherents. Her Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) has also attracted significant inflows for investors wary of market cap weighted indexes.
Everyone here is amazed at how forgotten segments of the market have rebounded in 2023: international, growth, small cap and bonds. Advisors here are having a hard time wrapping their heads around the idea that there would be a recession ins 2023, and now maybe not. "With real wage growth, large payroll growth and earnings beating expectations it equals a soft landing at worst and maybe no recession near term." Most advisors here are coming to grips with Powell's insistence the Fed will not lower rates this year. Their Equal Weight S & P 500 ETF (RSP) has also attracted significant inflows from investors wary of market cap weighted indexes.
But right now Lindzon isn't following the tech-focused investing approach that brought him so much success over the previous two decades. While he still sees opportunities to make money, he's much more cautious amid a high-interest-rate environment that led to the worst year for tech stocks since 2000. "You can't do a startup today and hire a hundred engineers because you can't raise enough money," Lindzon said. "I'm constructive in that money isn't coming out of the market completely," Lindzon said. Instead, Lindzon would advise investors to consider equal-weight stock market indexes, given that they offer diversification but aren't bogged down by mega-cap tech stocks.
Trader Talk: More signs the market is slowly advancing
  + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
I mentioned Tuesday that stocks were not in a bull market, but were heading in that direction. The most important indicator is broadening participation: more stocks advancing than declining. That, not surprisingly, is also when the S & P 500 put in its bear market bottom, on October 12th, at 3,577. The S & P 500 Equal Weight Index (RSP), an equal weighted-basket of the 500 stocks in the S & P 500, is up nearly 17% since then, while the S & P 500 is up only 11%. In an equal-weighted world, Apple and Microsoft are just another two stocks, instead of the more than 11% of the market cap-weighted S & P 500.
The Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) rose 2.8% in the first week of the new year, roughly double the gains for the S & P 500. The index was down less than 12% last year on a total return basis, while the S & P 500 fell nearly 20%. Similar funds like the Invesco Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF (EQAL) have also outperformed. The run has been so strong that, as CNBC's Michael Santoli pointed out in his weekend column , the S & P 500 equal weight index is trading at a multiyear high versus the S & P 500. The upcoming earnings season may be another reason for investors to consider an equal weight fund.
Recall that at the start of last year, the popular bet was for a smooth and painless rotation from expensive growth stocks to financials and cyclicals. It didn't last: The S & P financial sector trounced utilities by seven percentage points in just the first week of 2022. Yet the Nasdaq 100 's premium to the overall S & P 500 remains at 25% — higher than at any point in the decade before the Covid pandemic hit. And the broader tape, as measured by the equal-weighted S & P 500, continues to act better than the top-heavy headline index. This egalitarian basket, buyable via the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) , is up 16% from the autumn low, is down less than 12% from its record high and has broken to a new cycle high against the traditional S & P 500.
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