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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPrivate credit has held up companies that wouldn't have access to capital otherwise, says Tony DwyerTony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity chief market strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the latest market trends, recession outlook, mega-cap stock performance, and more.
Persons: Tony Dwyer Tony Dwyer, Canaccord
The Simplify Tail Risk ETF , which trades under the cheeky ticker "CYA," is headed for liquidation later this month after a brutal money-losing stretch. CYA 1Y mountain Simplify's Tail Risk ETF has been beaten down by the market rally. "Tail protection, which was heavily desired in 2020, has no bids right now. And that way if you're losing money on it, and it's a tail risk ETF where you're buying a put [option], then you understand why that's happening," Armour said. "A tail risk ETF is going to go potentially over a decade without working, and that's okay.
Persons: Michael Green, Green, subpar, Bryan Armour, Armour, CYA, Philip Toews, Vix, Toews Organizations: CNBC, Fidelity, North, Asset Management Locations: North America
New York CNN —After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. I take that as a signal of a potential turn in the CMBS market in terms of the market sentiment. It’s not just all gloom and doom in the CRE market. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. OPEC+, a coalition of the world’s top oil producing countries, had announced voluntary oil cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November.
Persons: Tracy Chen, Chen, that’s, Bell, Banks aren’t, CMBS, We’ve, they’ve, , Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, , Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, Eva Rothenberg, Brent, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Brandywine, Intercontinental Exchange and Bank of America, outperformance, Fed, New York Community Bank, York Community Bank, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, OPEC, AAA Locations: New York, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, New, New York City, Richmond, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United States
Here's a roundup of recent recession warnings from six experts:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEOAdvertisementThere's a long history of investors being caught off guard by sudden downturns, Dimon told CNBC this week. AdvertisementSteve Hanke, Johns Hopkins professorThe US economy is headed for a recession if history is any indication, Hanke told Business Insider this week. AdvertisementPaul Dietrich, B. Riley Wealth Management's chief investment strategist"We're still on the path to recession," Dietrich told Business Insider in a recent interview. AdvertisementJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO"I think recession is closer than most people think," Gundlach said in a recent YouTube video.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, There's, Dimon, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Zentner, Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins, Hanke, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, We're, Dietrich, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, JPMorgan, CNBC, UBS, DoubleLine Locations: American, Russia, Ukraine, Israel
Private credit has become a hot investment on Wall Street as institutional investors seek out alternative investments with attractive dividends. "Investors might consider allocating a portion of their portfolio to private credit, depending on their individual risk tolerance, investment horizon and financial goals." Private credit funds have yields generally in the low-teens, although it can vary, he said. In a February report on U.S. life insurance ratings, Fitch Ratings said, "elevated private credit borrower leverage and a relative deterioration in private credit terms and conditions during more competitive lending environments are adding to pressures in the credit quality of private credit assets." The majority of the portfolio is in direct lending private credit, but a portion is also in publicly-traded securities of larger corporate issuers.
Persons: SoFi, Vivek Paul, Paul, Goldman, Greg Olafson, David Solomon, Fitch, Lisa Kwasnowski, Blackstone, Kwasnowski, Chuck Failla, it's, Failla, Oppenheimer, Mitchel Penn, Penn, Ares Capital, They've Organizations: Street, Franklin BSP Private Credit Fund, CNBC, Wall, BlackRock, Research, Management, UBS, Blackstone Private Credit Fund, Sovereign Financial Group, Securities and Exchange Commission, Owl, Golub, Ares, Sixth, SEC Locations: DBRS Morningstar's
Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's standing by Apple amid reports the company canceled its car project. Barclays reiterates Microsoft as overweight Barclays says investments made in advertising is a "$50 billion opportunity" for Microsoft. Goldman Sachs reiterates Salesforce as buy Goldman said it sees "upside" heading into Salesforce earnings Wednesday afternoon. Barclays initiates Weatherford as overweight Barclays says the oil services company is a "reborn industry player." Barclays upgrades Ecolab as overweight from equal weight Barclays says it has "strong visibility" for the food safety company.
Persons: Smucker, Stifel, DELL, Morgan Stanley, Apple, it's, NVDA, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, FSLR, Salesforce, Raymond James, Bernstein, Stellantis, Cantor Fitzgerald, Cantor, KBW, it's bullish, Guggenheim, McDonald's, Craig, Hallum Organizations: Apple, Barclays, Microsoft, U.S, " Bank of America, Nvidia, Bank of America, Constellation Energy, JPMorgan, Apollo, JMP, Weatherford, Bright, Holdings Locations: J.M, CY2026, Europe, UK, China, India, CEG
Loop Capital initiated Dell Technologies with a buy rating and a price target that implies more than 35% upside. Analyst Stephen Grambling hiked his price target by $9 to $49, while keeping his rating at overweight. Salesforce has popped nearly 14% in 2024, extending gains after the stock price came close to doubling in 2023 alone. Roseka's price target of $27.10 shows the potential for just 3.6% in upside compared with Tuesday's ending price. Analyst Ananda Baruah initiated coverage of the technology stock with a buy rating and a $125 price target.
Persons: Stifel, Smucker, Raymond James, Rick Patel, Patel, — Alex Harring, Kenneth Worthington, Worthington, Alex Harring, Morgan Stanley, Stephen Grambling, DKNG's, Grambling, DraftKings, Jackpocket, Morgan, Wednesday's premarket, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Kash Rangan, Rangan, Bernstein, Daniel Roeska, Stellantis, Roseka, KeyBanc, Sophie Karp, CEG, Karp, Matthew Smith, Smith, Fred Imbert, Dell, Ananda Baruah, DELL, Baruah Organizations: CNBC, Dell Technologies, FactSet, Apollo Global Management, JPMorgan, APO, Grambling, Constellation Energy, Constellation, Dell, Capital, DELL Locations: Tuesday's, Wednesday's premarket, Grambling, Wednesday's, Salesforce, Netherlands, U.S, Europe
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Goldman Sachs and Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala on Monday signed a $1 billion private credit partnership to co-invest in the Asia-Pacific region, with a particular focus on India, the institutions said in a joint statement. The separately managed account, termed the "Partnership," will be managed by Private Credit at Goldman Sachs Alternatives, with a staff based on the ground in various markets across the region. It will invest the long-term capital in "high quality companies ... across the private credit spectrum" across a number of Asia-Pacific markets. The UAE in October 2023 announced a target to invest $75 billion in India over a period of time, while Saudi Arabia set an investment target in the country of $100 billion. "India, in particular, stands out as a key market with significant opportunities in private credit, and where Goldman Sachs has strong exposure and capabilities," said Fabrizio Bocciardi, Mubadala's head of credit investments, in a press release.
Persons: United Arab Emirates — Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs, Fabrizio Bocciardi Organizations: United Arab Emirates, Monday, Private Credit, Goldman Sachs, Abu Dhabi Global Market, United Arab Locations: DUBAI, United Arab, Abu Dhabi, Asia, Pacific, India, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Saudi Arabia
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon thinks there's a better-than-even chance that the U.S. is heading for a recession, though he doesn't see systemic issues looming. "The market is kind of pricing in a soft landing. Along with the elevated rates, markets have had to contend with the Federal Reserve rolling off its bond holdings, a process known as quantitative tightening. But they will play out and they will have an effect and in my mind I'm just kind of cautious about everything." Higher interest rates along with a recession could hit areas such as commercial real estate and regional banks hard, but with limited macroeconomic impacts, Dimon said.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, there's, Dimon, CNBC's Leslie Picker Organizations: JPMorgan, Conference, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, New York Community Bank, CNBC PRO Locations: Miami, U.S, Silicon
JPMorgan warned that today's economic situation could shift towards 1970s-era stagflation, characterized by high inflation and low growth. Such a situation would drive investors away from stocks towards fixed-income assets offering higher returns. JPMorgan says current geopolitical tensions have parallels to the 1970s and could similarly drive inflation. AdvertisementThe US economy is at risk of tilting towards stagflation, or a period marked by low growth and persistently high inflation, which would prompt investors to favor stocks over bonds, says JPMorgan. An uncertain geopolitical environment, combined with high interest rates, would likely reduce liquidity, JPMorgan said.
Persons: , JPMorgan, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service Locations: Vietnam, Israel, Ukraine, China
Private credit firms can help companies raise money more quickly and with more flexibility than traditional lenders. Many everyday investors can't buy into big private credit funds, but they can get exposure to the space through the stocks of some of the biggest private lenders. Hamilton still sees upside in buying private credit firms, especially one stock. "Our credit and insurance teams had a remarkable year in 2023, with gross returns of 16.4% in the private credit strategies and 13% in liquid credit. There are also private credit firms that trade outside of the U.S., for investors who are able to buy stocks in foreign markets.
Persons: Matthew Bass, Morgan Stanley, Bruce Hamilton, Hamilton, Blackstone, Jonathan Gray, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Companies, Apollo Global Management, APO, KKR, Intermediate Capital Group Locations: Preqin, U.S
KKR's family office survey of 75 chief investment officers around the world found that family offices had 52% of their portfolios invested in alternative investments in 2023, up from 42% in 2022. Family offices also have a special advantage in the current market, since banks and more traditional lenders are pulling back on loans to companies. Family offices plan to continue to move capital from cash and stocks into alternatives this year, according to the survey. The report said family offices are concentrating on data centers, logistics and warehouses "that capture the important post-pandemic investment themes." Another sector family offices like right now: oil and gas, in both private and public markets.
Persons: Robert Frank Organizations: KKR, CNBC PRO
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBlue Owl Capital co-CEO on private lending: The environment is good for what we doMarc Lipschultz, Blue Owl co-founder and co-CEO, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the current environment for private credit, what banks reentering the lending space means for Blue Owl, and more.
Persons: Marc Lipschultz Organizations: Owl
Insurance companies represent a big opportunity for private equity firms, who invest with the accumulated premiums paid by millions of everyday Americans. It's not just insurance clients that benefit from AI to bring more transparency to the cloudy private credit market. With private credit, insurance firms can invest in a more diversified set of assets with greater yield (and, albeit risk) than public credit markets, like vanilla corporate bonds. And because insurance companies often have long-term horizons with their financial obligations to policyholders, they can invest in less-liquid asset classes, like private credit. But to win more insurance clients, Blackstone must compete with the likes of Apollo Global Management, Carlyle, and KKR, which have also been keen on insurance.
Persons: Blackstone, John Stecher, it's, Stecher, Gilles Dellaert, Carlyle, that's, Jon Gray, Gray Organizations: Blackstone, , Business, Insurance, Blackstone Insurance, Apollo Global Management, KKR Locations: BXCI
Valentine Andrews, 52, will report to Lorentz and lead the firm's "next era of private markets growth," he wrote. She will remain in New York City, where Manulife's private equity and private credit teams are based. Valentine Andrews joined BlackRock in 2014 from Morgan Stanley, where she spent seven years and helped establish the firm's infrastructure-investing platform. She previously worked at Macquarie Bank, the firm known for its infrastructure investments, in Melbourne and New York. "I like to think about living life in chapters," Valentine Andrews wrote in a post on LinkedIn last month.
Persons: CQS, Anne Valentine Andrews, Paul Lorentz, Valentine Andrews, Lorentz, Angelo Gordon, Nuveen, BlackRock, Edwin Conway, Salim Ramji, Vipon, Brian Kernohan, Marc Feliciano, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Manulife Investment Management, Business, BlackRock, Manulife, Investment, Global Infrastructure Partners, TPG, Macquarie Bank, LinkedIn Locations: Toronto, Massachusetts, Manulife, New York City, Melbourne, New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFortress’s Drew McKnight and Oaktree’s Armen Panossian on private credit in 2024Drew McKnight, Co-CEO and managing partner of Fortress; Armen Panossian, incoming Co-CEO of Oaktree, join\ 'Fast Money' to talk private credit, the Federal Reserve, macro trends their watching and more.
Persons: Fortress’s Drew McKnight, Oaktree’s Armen Panossian, Drew McKnight, Armen Panossian Organizations: Oaktree, Federal Reserve
Private credit has quickly become one of Wall Street's most popular investment classes in 2023. It also has roots in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy of holding interest rates near 0% for a decade. You won't find private credit funds on Robinhood. "It comes from pension funds, endowments and foundations, insurance companies, retail investors, sovereign wealth investors," Dwin said. Watch the video above to learn more about what private credit is, how it has changed debt markets and the risks involved.
Persons: Damien Dwin, Dwin Organizations: Apollo, Ares Management, Federal, Fed, Lafayette Capital Locations: Robinhood
After a tepid year in the IPO market, investors are hopeful 2024 will bring about a return to form. But the IPO market cratered in 2022 after the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hiking campaign collapsed investor demand for growth stocks. But happier days could be ahead for the IPO market in 2024. According to Linqto's 2024 IPO Sentiment Survey released Thursday, only a little more than half, 52%, of 2,500 traders polled are anticipating a significant recovery in the IPO market this year, suggesting "cautious optimism" ahead. "There's a lot more optimism for the IPO market," said Akshata Bailkeri, head of research at EquityZen, a platform for pre-IPO activity.
Persons: Akshata Bailkeri, Bailkeri, Wilson, EquityZen's Bailkeri, Shein, Shein confidentially, Reddit, that's, ​ Andrew Low Ah Kee, Low Ah Kee, Ah Kee, Skims Skims, Kim Kardashian, Andy Muir, Muir, Jordan Brand, Amer, Roxanna Islam, Troy Gayeski, Gayeski, EquityZen's Organizations: Robinhood, Ford, Amer Sports, CNBC, U.S, Reuters, National Football League, Commerce, Nike, Wilson, FS Investments, U.S . Census, World Bank Locations: Snowflake, IPOs, Silicon, China, Opendoor, U.S
Goldman Sachs on Tuesday posted fourth-quarter results that topped analysts' expectations on better-than-expected asset and wealth management revenue. Companywide revenue rose 7% to $11.32 billion on growth from asset and wealth management and platform solutions divisions. The growth engine for the bank, according to Solomon, is now its asset and wealth management division, which is benefiting from the rise in private credit and other alternative assets. Asset and wealth management revenue jumped 23% from a year earlier to $4.39 billion, topping the StreetAccount estimate by nearly $550 million, on higher revenue from equity and debt investments and rising management fees. Equities trading revenue jumped 26% to $2.61 billion, thanks to derivatives activity and financing fees, topping the $2.22 billion StreetAccount estimate.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, wasn't, LSEG Goldman, Goldman, David Solomon, Solomon, outsized, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Organizations: LSEG, LSEG ., Investment, Wall, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, CNBC PRO
10 industry leaders transforming business in 2023
  + stars: | 2023-12-11 | by ( ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +20 min
In 2023, Business Insider's annual list of People Transforming Business highlights key players across the advertising, ESG, finance, AI, and labor sectors. Increasingly, they're turning to more opaque private credit markets to borrow money. The world of private credit sits outside the traditional banking system. Analysts expect the private credit market to balloon in size — likely keeping lawyers like Breen very busy. Muthukrishnan is trying to make sense of how risky these private credit loans are by overseeing what is so far the most comprehensive look at vulnerabilities in the industry.
Persons: Mira Murati, who's, Vince Toye, Eileen Fisher, Eileen Fisher Fisher, Guerin Blask, Eileen Fisher Eileen Fisher, she's, Fisher, Janelle Jones, Jones, Lexey, , She's, Justin Breen, Proskauer Breen, Proskauer Justin Breen, he's, Breen, Ares Capital, He's, McLaren, Julie Su, Labor Julie Su, Department of Labor Julie Su, Su, Marty Walsh, Murati, Jim Wilson, Neal Mohan, YouTube Mohan, Katie Thompson, YouTube It's, YouTube isn't, Mohan, Muthukrishnan, Satya Nadella, Microsoft Satya Nadella, Ben Kriemann, Nadella, Steve Ballmer, Mathias Döpfner, Axel Springer, Tim Cook, Apple Cook, Justin Sullivan, Cook, Steve Jobs, Jobs, JPMorgan Chase Toye, JPMorgan Chase, Toye, they'll, Vince Toye's, Bella Sayegh, Rebecca Ungarino, Lara O'Reilly, Juliana Kaplan, Alex Nicoll, Tim Paradis, Stephanie Hallett, Michelle Abrego, Josée Rose, Ryan Joe, Emily Canal, Kaja Whitehouse, Alyssa Powell, Davis, Jonann Brady Organizations: JPMorgan, Service Employees International, SEIU, New York, Ford, Service Employees International Union, United Auto Workers Union, Spelman College, US Department of Labor, Economic Policy Institute, Center for Economic, Research, Department of Labor, The New York Times, Ares, Churchill Asset Management, European, Atlético Madrid, Labor, Labor Department, MacArthur Foundation, New York Times, Dartmouth, OpenAI, Associated Press, YouTube, NFL, DirecTV, Federal, Microsoft, Manipal Institute of Technology, University of Wisconsin -, University of Chicago, Apple, Apple Watch, Google, Time, JPMorgan Chase, National Housing Trust, Trenton Almgren Locations: McDonald's, Lorain , Ohio, Atlanta, California, Los Angeles, Albania, Canada, Muthukrishnan, Hyderabad, India, University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee, OpenAI, Virginia, Wells Fargo, Trenton
It will see suspended payments repaid from 2027 to 2029 after a grace period from 2025 to 2026, the Paris Club said in a statement, noting that the deal was reached on Nov. 23. If Ethiopia does not get an IMF staff-level agreement by March 31, the official creditor committee "reserves the right to declare the suspension null and void", the Paris Club said. The Paris Club said 10 of its members were on Ethiopia's official creditor committee, which is co-chaired by France and non-Paris Club member China. Other non-Paris Club committee members are India, Kuwait, Poland, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. "We welcome the recent announcement of an interim standstill agreement with official creditors," the IMF spokesperson added.
Persons: Tellimer, Patrick Curran, Rachel Savage, Rodrigo Campos, Alex Richardson, Toby Chopra, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Paris Club, French Treasury, Ethiopian, IMF, Club, OCC, China, Thomson Locations: JOHANNESBURG, China, Addis Ababa, Tigray, Ethiopia, France, India, Kuwait, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Turkey
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere would almost be no debt capital markets if not for lenders like us: Blue Owl Capital co-CEOMarc Lipschultz, Blue Owl co-founder and co-CEO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the competition in the private credit market, the overall corporate performance of the companies they underwrite, and where there's room for growth.
Persons: Marc Lipschultz Organizations: Owl
Watch CNBC's full interview with Blue Owl co-CEO Marc Lipschultz
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Blue Owl co-CEO Marc LipschultzMarc Lipschultz, Blue Owl co-founder and co-CEO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the competition in the private credit market, the overall corporate performance of the companies they underwrite, and where there's room for growth.
Persons: Marc Lipschultz Marc Lipschultz Organizations: Blue
Private-asset binge exposes insurance to new risks
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
The concept is not new: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) has used its insurance premiums to help fund everything from railways to cowboy-boot makers. The prospect of insurance companies buying risky loans or private equity investments has raised eyebrows. Many private credit assets, for example, rely on so-called private letter ratings based on confidential data. Given the private nature of private credit, it’s hard to see from the outside how big these risks are, or where they lurk. Besides, even if the share of life insurance assets that are mis-rated or undercapitalized is tiny, smaller insurers could carry more concentrated risk.
Persons: Blackstone, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, Fitch, Kroll, Egan, Jones, DBRS Morningstar, Banks, SVB, Jonathan Guilford, Neil Unmack, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Apollo Global Management, KKR, Global Atlantic, Investments, National Association of Insurance, England’s Everton FC, Rivals, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Athene, P Global, Insurance, SVB, Thomson Locations: Global, Delaware , New York, Iowa, New York, London
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPeople shouldn't reach for yield right now, says Janus Henderson's John KerschnerJohn Kerschner, head of U.S. securitized products and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the warning in private credit, investing in securitized assets, and more.
Persons: Janus Henderson's John Kerschner John Kerschner, Janus Henderson
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