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☆ The odds of no interest-rate cuts in 2024 are growing
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today’s big story, we’re looking at the chances of there being no rate cuts this year, and how the markets would react. What's on deck:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The big storyCuts are canceledAaron Schwartz/Xinhua via Getty ImagesDon't count your chickens before they hatch and don't price in your rate cuts before they materialize. Last December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that three cuts were on the table for 2024, which he reiterated earlier this month. AdvertisementBonds could struggle, though, with further delays on rate cuts raising the risk that debt markets suffer another meltdown like they did last fall.

Persons: —, Mark Zuckerberg, Aaron Schwartz, ”, won’t, Jerome Powell, Phil Rosen, There's, BI’s Yuheng Zhan, NYCB’s, Ark's Cathie Wood, Paul Judge, Tessa Flippin, Claude Grunitzky, Gayle Jennings O'Byrne, Black VCs, Masayoshi Son, OpenAI’s, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, UFC, Business, Xinhua, Getty, Federal, Paramount, Fed, Big Tech, JPMorgan Private Bank, Discover, Discover Financial, Nvidia, Opportunity, Equity Alliance, Wocstar Fund, Opportunity Fund, Equity Alliance Wocstar, Google, Walmart, Pandora, Home Locations: Japan, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Fox, New York, London, Chicago

☆ The Fed has a very strong case to keep rates higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Yet Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues have rebuffed those forecasts, and markets have pushed their rate cut predictions further into 2024. And the producer price index for January came in at 0.3% on Friday, higher than the expected 0.1% increase. Jimmy Chang, the chief investment officer for Rockefeller Global Family Office, told Business Insider that it would be difficult for the Fed to cut rates in the current landscape. AdvertisementThe Fed's next moveThe case for keeping rates unchanged has gained momentum over recent weeks, but both markets and the Fed ultimately expect easing interest rates in 2024. Bank of America forecasts that the first cut likely won't happen until June, and policymakers could opt to cut rates "later and faster."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Nonfarm payrolls, Mary Daly, agilely, Joe Seydl, Seydl, Jimmy Chang, Chang, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jay Woods, We're, Woods, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan Private Bank, Rockefeller Global Family Office, Fed, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Freedom Capital Markets, Bank of America

☆ China's crashing birthrate will leave millions of teachers jobless in the coming years
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's birthrate has plunged, with the number of newborns in 2023 falling by 500,000, to about 9 million. AdvertisementDecades of China's one-child policy have created a demographic nightmare for the world's second-largest economy, and millions of school teachers could soon be left without a job as birthrates tumble. If those classes don't scale back, China could see a surplus of 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 middle school teachers by 2035, according to a Tuesday report from the South China Morning Post. Last year marked the second consecutive year that China's population shrank, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. Total primary school students, too, declined in 2022 for the first time in a decade.

Persons: China's birthrate, —, it's Organizations: Service, South China Morning, country's National Bureau of Statistics, Education, China National Academy of Educational Sciences, Terry Group, Terry, UN Locations: China, Beijing, Hangzhou

☆ The 2008 housing bust suggests China's only halfway through its property crisis. Here's how the downturns compare.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"We estimate that real house prices in China declined 16% from the peak in 2021Q3 to 2023Q3," Goldman analysts said. For context, US real house prices peaked in early 2006 and bottomed in 2012. Goldman's derived measure of China's real house prices has only dropped by half as much as the US saw during its six-year collapse, as the chart shows below. Goldman Sachs"[O]verly loose mortgage lending standards and too much mortgage debt, which were at the center of the US subprime crisis, do not apply in China," Goldman analysts said. Foreclosures soared as homeowners couldn't afford to pay off or refinance their mortgages, which lowered house prices further.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Price Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Business, Housing Locations: China, Beijing, 2021Q3

☆ A German bank says it's preparing for the worst property crisis since '08 as commercial real estate distress spreads
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG said it's bracing for an ongoing decline in commercial real estate. It called the downturn "the greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis." Shares of the German bank have declined about 25% year-to-date. AdvertisementSigns of commercial real estate distress continue to mount, with the latest warning coming from German lending giant Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG. "Despite these expenses, pbb remains profitable thanks to its financial strength – even in the greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis," the bank said in a statement February 7.

Persons: —, they've Organizations: Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG, Service

☆ The US, China, and Europe's economies are drifting apart. The global 'decoupling' is moving markets.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-11 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe biggest players in the global economy are on different trajectories, and markets around the world are reflecting the shifting landscape. "Signs of decoupling are present in global growth, trade, and equity markets," Bank of America strategists wrote in a Friday note. AdvertisementTo that point, the outlook for the Euro area looks softer. BofA expects Euro area growth at 0.4% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. Growth forecasts for US, Euro Area, and China.

Persons: —, Janet Yellen, BofA, SPX Organizations: Service, Bank, Business, Bank of America, Wall, Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of America Global Locations: China, There's, Germany, Spain, Europe

☆ China's deflation problem keeps getting worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In the latest sign of the country's worsening deflation problem, fresh data showed consumer prices in China tumbled in January at the sharpest rate in 14 years. AdvertisementOn an annualized month-over-month basis, consumer prices fell 4.3%, with particular weakness in food prices. Measured year-over-year for January:Pork prices fell 17.3%Vegetable prices fell 12.7%Fruit prices fell 9.1%The producer price index, too, dropped 2.5%, while service prices climbed at 0.5% on the year, half the rate seen in December. The more consumer prices fall, the more difficult it will be for Beijing to reverse. Foreign investors have already fled Chinese markets in droves over the last year, and ongoing deflation could spell trouble for earnings of Chinese companies.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, National Bureau, Statistics, Bloomberg, Institute of International Finance Locations: China, China's, Beijing

☆ China's housing bust is happening at 'a historically rapid pace' only seen in the worst collapses of the last 3 decades
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Most pressing, however, is its real estate trouble, which the International Monetary Fund characterized as a historic bust matching levels only seen in the worst collapses of the last three decades. AdvertisementYears of overreliance on real estate as an engine of the economy has led to a buildup of risks, the researchers said. Now, Beijing must clean up distressed developers like Evergrande and Country Garden, support falling real estate prices, and figure out how to put the sector on a more sustainable path. The collapse has transpired at "a historically rapid pace only seen in the largest housing busts in cross-country experience in the last three decades," researchers said. "Large public subsidies in the previous decade helped millions of people move to newer housing from older buildings lacking modern amenities.

Persons: Henry Hoyle, Sonali Jain, Chandra, homebuyers Organizations: International Monetary, Business, Housing, IMF Locations: Beijing, China

☆ The odds of a global recession keep going down
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Ned Davis Research said economic indicators suggest the odds of a global downturn are diminishing. "The global economic lull we saw in the second half of 2023 appears to be abating." In a note published Tuesday, they highlighted that economic indicators across manufacturing, supply chains, and equities suggest the odds of a global recession have come down. On a historical basis, it's still below the long-term average of 53.2, but the global composite PMI has a recession threshold of 47.8. "This puts our breadth measure closer to pre-pandemic levels, when global expansions typically saw services breadth at 85% or higher."

Persons: Ned Davis, —, Alejandra Grindal, Patrick Ayers, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, PMI, NDR Locations: China, India, East, Japan, Canada

☆ Office-to-residential conversions have surged 357% since 2021 as billions in commercial mortgages come due
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Office-to-residential conversions are up 357% since 2021, according to a report from ResiClubThere's $150 billion in office mortgages set to come due in 2024. Last year, about $541 billion of commercial real estate debt officially matured. AdvertisementBy 2027, $2.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt is set to mature, Capital Economics said. ResiClub cofounder Lance Lambert pointed out that commercial buildings aren't all designed or constructed to be repurposed as living spaces. "It makes sense given the wave of expired leases and vacant office buildings," Lambert said.

Persons: —, Moody's, CommercialEdge, Lance Lambert, Lambert, " Lambert Organizations: Service, ResiClub, Federal Reserve, Washington DC, Dallas, Research, Capital Economics, Business Locations: RentCafe, ResiClub, Washington, New York

☆ China's economy is at risk of a brutal 'debt-deflation spiral'
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China's economy has crawled out of the pandemic far below the pace of what most analysts expected, and if policymakers don't step in with sufficient support in 2024, a "debt-deflation spiral" could ensue. Deflation and falling stocksThe researchers said China's leadership has failed to address the lopsided supply and demand dynamics in particular. Meanwhile, deflation has crushed corporate earnings and stock prices in China, as well as wage growth and tax revenues. Nominal GDP grew at 4.6% in 2023, 0.6 points below real growth. "The economy could fall into a debt-deflation spiral without adequate policy support."

Persons: Gene Ma, Phoebe Feng, Ma, Feng, Banks Organizations: Wall Street, Institute of International Finance, CSI, People's Bank of Locations: China, Beijing, People's Bank of China

☆ China's chances of staging an economic rebound this year look slim
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

China faces severe real estate woes, deflation, and an exodus of global investors. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe world has yet to witness any post-pandemic rebound in China, and Wall Street expects little to change in 2024. The ongoing exodus of global investors is evidence the bear case is intact, and the country's real estate sector continues to look more and more precarious. AdvertisementThat in turn has cratered sentiment, as Chinese households have the majority of their wealth tied to real estate.

Persons: —, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Mike Edwards, Weiss, haven't, Edwards, Tracy Chen, Chen, Caesar Maasry, Goldman Sachs, Maasry Organizations: Service, Wall, Tech, Baidu, US, Business, Brandywine, Supply, Seng China Enterprises, Bloomberg Locations: China, Beijing

☆ China is reportedly scrubbing the internet of negative coverage of its economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Reports this week from The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal detail efforts by Chinese authorities to scrub the internet of negative takes on the state of its economy. According to the NYT, The Ministry of State Security said in its official WeChat account that citizens should not believe the "false narratives" about the trajectory of China, and instead should believe in President Xi Jinping's vision. The WSJ similarly reported that some of the nation's top officials have reiterated the importance of promoting the "bright prospects of China's economy." The NYT said tech platform Weibo had restricted dozens of accounts from posting after they had shared bleak economic realities with other users. The platform also warned its users in November, the report said, not to be "maliciously pessimistic" about China's economy.

Persons: Xi, Li Xunlei Organizations: The New York Times, Ministry of State Security, Zhongtai Securities, Weibo Locations: China, Beijing

☆ The US economy is crushing it compared to other rich countries
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Phil Rosen | Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US recession calls are still on the table, but the economy is still outpacing other rich nations. US GDP grew at a surprise 3.3% rate in the fourth quarter, beating estimates for 2.0%. The trend has held steady over the last several years, with the US leading in economic growth since the pandemic. Among countries that use the euro, the combined GDP grew at a 0.1% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2023. US GDP growth reflected increases in consumer spending, state and local government spending, and exports, among other increases, according to the BEA.

Persons: —, Russell Price, That's Organizations: Service, OECD, BEA, International Monetary Fund, Fed Locations: Canada, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Germany

☆ The world's 2 biggest economies are moving in starkly different directions
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementMeanwhile, on Monday, a Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of China Evergrande, the world's most indebted real estate developer. "I expect that the Chinese market will bounce around, but that the bias is towards more pain since the problems are systemic in my opinion," Laffer Jr. said. "The US on the other hand should do well for the 2024 period — strong economy, strong employment, strong earnings, strong dollar."

Persons: —, That's, Arthur Laffer Jr, Laffer, Xi Jinping, Joseph Seydl, you've, Seydl, didn't, Alfredo Montufar, Helu, China Evergrande Organizations: Service, Real, Business, International Monetary Fund, Investments, JPMorgan Private Bank, Conference Board's China Center, CSI, Bloomberg Locations: China, US, Beijing, backtrack, deleverage, Hong Kong

☆ Defaults skyrocketed last year to the highest tally since the start of the pandemic - and 2024 is set to bring more pain to corporations
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Non-financial corporate defaults almost tripled from 2022 to 2023, Moody's said. In the fourth quarter of 2023, private-equity-backed companies led total defaults. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementDefaults among non-financial corporations nearly tripled in 2023 compared to the year prior, and Moody's Analytics expects the trend to continue in the new year. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Moody's, — Organizations: Service, Business

☆ The US housing market has ended a 9-month streak of price gains
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The latest S&P Case-Shiller national home price index data published Tuesday — which offers the three-month average for September, October, and November closing prices — showed a moderate slowdown in price gains. "The streak of nine monthly gains ended in November, setting the index back to levels last seen over the summer months." However, each saw annual gains of 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively. The biggest annual price gains came in Detroit and San Diego, at 8.2% and 8%, respectively. "The rate has since fallen over 1%, which could support further annual gains in home prices."

Persons: —, Brian D, Luke, Freddie Mac, Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank Locations: Detroit, San Diego, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte , New York, Cleveland, Portland

☆ 2 reasons why Red Sea disruptions won't send inflation soaring again, according to Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Goldman Sachs doesn't expect an inflation spike in the US fueled by turmoil in the Red Sea. To be sure, Red Sea disruptions have caused freight costs to soar as much as 350%. AdvertisementShipping disruptions in the Red Sea have caused freight costs to spike, but the impact on inflation will remain muted, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchHowever, they maintained that goods inflation still won't see a meaningful uptick for two reasons. "Under reasonable pass-through assumptions, a 100% increase in the cost of sea freight therefore only raises core goods inflation by around 0.4pp and overall core inflation by around 0.1pp," the Goldman strategists said.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius Organizations: Service, Shipping, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Goldman Locations: Red, Iran, Israel, Gaza, Suez, Asia, Europe, China, Southeast Asia, 0.4pp, 0.1pp

☆ American's housing shortage won't be solved for years to come
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe tight housing market has shown recent signs of easing, but Moody's Analytics still anticipates Americans will face inventory snags for years to come. Based on data from the end of December, the monthly sales pace implies 3.2 months' of housing inventory, according to the National Association of Realtors. That shortage suggests a recovery in the housing market remains years away, the researchers said. "One good year of 'excessive' supply was only in its relative term when compared with affordability-constrained demand," Moody's researchers said. Ultimately, to Moody's, increasing housing inventory and rebalancing the market will take years of "joint effort and creativity" across the public and private sectors.

Persons: —, Nick Villa, Moody's Organizations: Service, Business, National Association of Realtors, NAR

☆ The frozen housing market may be starting to thaw
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US housing market is showing renewed signs of life as 2024 begins. AdvertisementThe US housing market has been largely frozen for the last two years, but it's starting to show signs of a thaw as sales activity and mortgage applications pick up, and mortgage rates ease. AdvertisementPending home sales increased 8% in December. Mortgage applications have also picked up. "The housing market is off to a good start this year, as consumers benefit from falling mortgage rates and stable home prices," said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the NAR.

Persons: —, Odeta Kushi, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Federal Reserve

☆ Microsoft's $3 trillion market cap milestone is the latest in a string of wins for Big Tech's elder statesman
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at Microsoft notching another big win by briefly reaching a $3 trillion valuation. It's an impressive run for a company often viewed as the least sexy in Big Tech. 3 things in marketsInstagram/grandmabetty33The stock market is looking gray, and that's a bad thing. A famed economist said you shouldn't confuse a booming stock market with a strong economy. Nobel economist Paul Krugman recently wrote about how consumers feel too optimistic about the economy due to the current stock market rally.

Persons: —, Ethan Miller, Phil Rosen, OpenAI, Ashley Stewart, Tim Matsui, Ashley, That's, it's, It'll, aren't, We're, Taylor, Paul Krugman, Patrick Pleul, Mark Zuckerberg, Marc Benioff chatted, Brad Barket, Jon Stewart, Stewart, Trevor Noah, Donald Trump, Jean Carroll's Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Big, Rosenberg Research, AP Tesla, EV, Microsoft Windows, Walmart, Comedy Central, Bank of America, Intel, Visa, Southwest Airlines, Comcast Locations: Big Tech

☆ The housing market capped off its worst year of sales since 1995. Here's how affordability, inventory, and demographics have changed in 3 decades.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewHigh mortgage rates, lofty prices, and low inventory kept the US housing largely frozen in 2023, and home sales slumped to their lowest mark since 1995. Current owners have been reluctant to move off lower mortgage rates secured in prior years, stifling both buying and selling activity. AdvertisementAnd it's worth noting that even as mortgage rates in both years hovered around 7%, affordability has still worsened by a significant margin. NAR deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz highlighted in a note Monday that incomes have less power today compared to decades ago, as reflected in the real estate group's Housing Affordability Index. National Association of Realtors"All these factors have changed dramatically with limited housing inventory and the continual rise in home prices," she continued.

Persons: —, it's, hasn't, Jessica Lautz, Lautz, Zillow, Redfin Organizations: Service, Business, National Association of Realtors, NAR, National Association of Home Builders

☆ A key indicator shows Americans' financial stress is mounting
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

LegalShield's Consumer Stress Legal Index showed consumer financial stress is continuing to rise. LegalShield on Tuesday said its Consumer Stress Legal Index rose to 66.7 in December, up by 0.4 points from the prior month, showing that US consumers' financial stress is at its highest level since November 2020. AdvertisementUS consumer financial stress has soared to its highest in three years. "The rise in consumer stress in contrast to increased spending may point to an even sharper rise in household debt in the coming months." The increase in consumers' financial stress comes even as GDP growth has stayed strong, the labor market remains robust, and holiday retail spending was high.

Persons: —, Matt Layton Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ A year ago most economists expected a recession. Now 91% say otherwise.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe vast majority of economists see a recession as unlikely in the next year, according to the latest survey from the National Association of Business Economics. New results out Monday showed 91% now assign a probability of 50% or less for a slowdown in the next 12 months. AdvertisementOnly 9% of respondents reported a recession being more likely than not, down from 18% in the previous survey. Since 1968, the recession indicator has gone eight for eight in preceding a recession.

Persons: —, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Campbell Harvey Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Business, The University of, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department

☆ The inventor of the market's most famous recession indicator is confident the inverted yield curve is accurately calling a slowdown in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-20 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1969. When the yield curve inverted in November 2022, he said it was a false signal. AdvertisementWall Street has ramped up its soft-landing calls for 2024, but a renowned economic expert who popularized the most famous recession indicator in markets says to expect a downturn this year. He said the inverted yield curve, in one sense, is a self-fulfilling prophecy as it signals to companies and investors that a slowdown is looming, which then alters spending and business behavior and ultimately leads to less activity. Advertisement"It makes the yield curve causal," Harvey said.

Persons: —, Campbell Harvey, Harvey, Jack Farley, he's Organizations: Service, Duke University, Federal Locations: Canadian

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