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☆ The Federal Reserve is fed up with data revisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said large revisions in data are tainting his assessments of how the economy is doing. Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesThat’s well above the average month-over-month revised change in job totals from 1973 to the latest available revision data, according to the BLS. The official summary of what Fed officials said and discussed during their September meeting — also known as the Fed minutes — stated: “A few participants observed that there were challenges in assessing the state of the economy because some data continued to be volatile and subject to large revisions.”Spokespeople from the Federal Reserve declined to answer which data Fed officials were referring to. Frequent and large revisions to economic data are weighing on Federal Reserve decision-making, Governor Michelle Bowman said. “We want to be data dependent, but not data point dependent,” Williams said.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, it’s, Al Drago, ” Waller, ”, Michelle Bowman, —, Spokespeople, he’s, don’t, Erica Groshen, David Wilcox, Laura Kelter, Kelter, Groshen, Wilcox, John Williams, ” Williams, “ Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal Reserve, ”, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Fed, Ohio Bankers League, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Department, Census, Labor, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Employment, CNN, Wilcox . New York Fed Locations: New York, Wilcox . New

☆ How America’s economy keeps defying expectations when the rest of the world is struggling
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Economists were convinced the last quarter of 2023 had to be the one where economic growth slowed significantly after the prior quarter’s gangbuster 4.9% annualized growth rate. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, did slow last quarter to a 3.3% annualized rate. It’s remarkable given economists were expecting 1.5% annualized GDP growth last quarter. But what’s perhaps most remarkable about the US economic growth rate is how much it towers over similarly sized advanced economies. Covid stimulus money is helping Americans avoid cutting back on spending.

Persons: Larry David, that’s, rateaccording, Joseph Gagnon, David Paul Morris, Gagnon, That’s, Alicia Wallace, Hanna Ziady, he’s, I’ve, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Gross, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Singapore, Europe, Ukraine

An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China October 25, 2022. But the extent of the political and economic jitters merely mirrors other signs of a long-term China exit well beyond portfolio flows. Earlier this month, China recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in "bricks and mortar" foreign direct investment (FDI). What's more, a multi-year aversion to China investments then risks colliding with deteriorating long-term economic growth dynamics - heightened by rising youth unemployment and dire demographics. Despite some recent upgrades of China growth forecasts, yet another business survey this week raised red flags.

Persons: Aly, Gina Raimondo, Nicholas Lardy, Xi, Lardy, What's, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Mike Dolan, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Official Monetary, Financial, Reuters, . Commerce, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, OMFIF, Europe, North America, India, Brazil, Beijing, U.S, Washington, San Francisco

Now "it's like 'plus-10' and then China," he added, with the latter down to providing half of Industry West's products and being trimmed more. China recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in foreign direct investment in July-September, suggesting capital outflow pressure. But for the first time in the four decades since China opened up to foreign investments, executives are now also concerned about long-term growth prospects. Primavera Capital founder Fred Hu cites mounting macroeconomic uncertainty, a "murky capital market outlook," and lingering concerns over past regulatory crackdowns on high-growth industries such as technology and education. Despite the challenges, foreign investment flows are not unidirectional.

Persons: Jordan England, Nicholas Lardy, England, I'm, Li Qiang's, Li, Michael Hart, Noah Fraser, Fred Hu, Hu, Joe Cash, Ellen Zhang, Kane Wu, Eduardo Baptista, Don Durfee, Kripa Jayaram, Marius Zaharia, Jamie Freed Organizations: China, Reuters, Peterson Institute for International Economics, LONG, Conference Board, China International, Canada China Business Council, Reuters Graphics, Primavera Capital, Tech, Thomson Locations: China, BEIJING, HONG KONG, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Mexico, England, Florida, Washington, Beijing, consultancies, U.S, Asia, Australia, Europe, Hong Kong

☆ Multipolar world opens up surprising safe havens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

This new-look cap table leaves the U.S. much more vulnerable to the vagaries of foreign investors than before. In a crisis, foreign investors would rush to buy even more U.S. debt. Reuters GraphicsA less orthodox option would be to invest in emerging markets instead. The last time net equity investment in the U.S. NIIP dipped close to negative territory was as the dot-com bubble was deflating in 2001. In the next six years the U.S. saw net equity outflows equivalent to nearly 30% of GDP.

Persons: Hubert Védrine, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, ’, Donald Trump’s, exceptionalism, NIIP, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, French, U.S, United, United States, Treasury, Equity, U.S . Treasury, Japan, Democratic, Cooperation Council, Peterson Institute for International, Fed, ECB ”, Thomson Locations: United States, tatters, United, U.S, China, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Vietnam, India, Chile, Democratic Republic of, Congo, Washington

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States and China are the two global economic heavyweights. The meeting will bring together 21 Pacific Rim countries, which collectively represent 40% of the world’s people and nearly half of global trade. Indeed, imports of Chinese goods to the United States were down 24% through September compared with the same period of 2022. Xi, too, has reason to try to restore economic cooperation with the United States. “This will not be an easy sell.’’Complicating matters is that the tensions between Washington and Beijing go well beyond economics.

Persons: Joe Biden, Xi, Eswar Prasad, “, Prasad, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, Chad Bown, Janet Yellen, Lifeng, —, ” Yellen, ’ ’, Wendy Cutler, Raja Krishnamoorthi, ’ ’ Krishnamoorthi, ’ Organizations: WASHINGTON, International Monetary Fund, “, Cornell University, Economic Cooperation, Biden, World Trade Organization, U.S, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Prosperity, Trump, Group, Bain & Co, Micron, IMF, United, Asia Society Institute, Chinese Communist Party, Republicans, Pew Research Center, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Rep, Illinois Democrat Locations: United States, China, Washington, Beijing, U.S, Ukraine, Gaza, Asia, San Francisco, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, India, Philippines, South China, Taiwan, Chinese, Kenya, Nigeria, Illinois

U.S. Federal Reserve officials are puzzling over why bond borrowing rates spiked lately even as Fed policy expectations have remained largely unchanged. Whether a resurfacing "term premium'" now demanded to buy and hold longer-term bonds, is responsible is central to the conundrum. Britain's brief budget and debt shock late last year and the way the Bank of England was forced to react was perhaps a taster. "Once current debt has been refinanced and the average interest on debt reflects the higher long rates, absent changes in policy, debt ratios will increase," Blanchard wrote. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reutersby Mike Dolan Editing by Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Olivier Blanchard, Washington's, Blanchard, it's, Morgan Stanley, Mike Dolan, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, International Monetary Fund, Washington's Peterson Institute for International Economics, U.S, Congressional, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, United States, Europe

U.S. Federal Reserve officials are puzzling over why bond borrowing rates spiked lately even as Fed policy expectations have remained largely unchanged. Whether a resurfacing "term premium'" now demanded to buy and hold longer-term bonds, is responsible is central to the conundrum. Britain's brief budget and debt shock late last year and the way the Bank of England was forced to react was perhaps a taster. "Once current debt has been refinanced and the average interest on debt reflects the higher long rates, absent changes in policy, debt ratios will increase," Blanchard wrote. US debt costs soarRates minus Growth hits budget mathCBO's long-term debt projectionsDYSFUNCTION AND EXPLOSIONThere were tinges of optimism though.

☆ Why Trump Is Right About Tariffs
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Oren Cass | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

President Donald Trump at a Whirlpool manufacturing facility in Ohio, Aug. 2020. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty ImagesEconomists have reacted poorly to Donald Trump’s recent proposal for a 10% tariff on all imports. After all, tax revenue is necessary to provide public services, and tariffs have long proved an effective way to collect it. In 1789, the first law in the first Congress—advocated by Alexander Hamilton, introduced by James Madison and signed by George Washington on the Fourth of July—established a tariff not unlike Trump’s. For much of the nation’s history, while growing from colonial backwater to continent-spanning industrial colossus, the U.S. imposed some of the world’s highest tariffs, which were the primary means of funding the federal government.

Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Olson, Donald Trump’s, Adam Posen, Michael Strain, —, Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, George Washington Organizations: Getty, Peterson Institute for International Economics, American Enterprise Institute Locations: Ohio, U.S

☆ China weighs options to blunt U.S. sanctions in a Taiwan conflict
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Eduardo Baptista | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

"In the context of intensified Sino-U.S. strategic competition and the Taiwan Strait conflict, we should be wary of the U.S. replicating this financial sanction model against China," wrote Chen Hongxiang, a researcher at a branch of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in eastern Jiangsu province. Wang and several PBOC researchers wrote in articles that if the U.S. implemented Russia-style sanctions on China, Beijing should freeze U.S. investment and pension funds and seize the assets of U.S. companies. ENERGY AND ALLIANCESBesides financial sanctions, Russia's response to Western pressure on its oil, gas, metals, and chips industry has given food for thought to Chinese researchers. Chinese researchers also suggested Beijing exploit cracks within the European Union and between the U.S. and its allies. "The mutual penetration of the Chinese and American economies will inevitably weaken the willingness to impose financial sanctions," he wrote.

Persons: Thomas Peter, Chen Hongxiang, Xi Jinping, Yu Yongding, Yu, PBOC, Wang Yongli, Wang, Sun, Mou Lingzhi, Xia Fan, Ye Yan, Martin Chorzempa, Chorzempa, Chen, Eduardo Baptista, David Crawshaw Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Moscow, China, People's Bank of China, Reuters, Senior U.S, People's Liberation Army, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, China International Futures, U.S ., China Center for International Economic, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, China Minmetals Corporation, London Metals Exchange, Oil and Gas Exploration, Development Company, European Union, Peterson Institute for International Economics, EU, Thomson Locations: Fuzhou, Taiwan, Matsu, China, Rights BEIJING, Russia, Ukraine, Jiangsu, Beijing, Russian, U.S, Hainan, Washington, United States

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. Italy's 2.4 trillion-euro debt pile is the focus in Europe, where the IMF has said high debt leaves governments vulnerable to crisis. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Peter Praet, Praet, Sophia Drossos, Daniel Ivascyn, Claudio Borio, Olivier Blanchard, Ray Dalio, Janet Yellen's, Yellen, Jim Leaviss, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Daleep Singh, Joe Biden, Britain's, Yellen's, Jonathan Portes, Clare Lombardelli, Moritz Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Maria Martinez, Leigh Thomas, Giuseppe Fonte, Nell Mackenzie, Naomi Rovnick, William Schomberg, Jan Strupczewski, Dan Burns, Elisa Martinuzzi, Riddhima Talwani, Jayaram, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Financial, of, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank for International, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Associates, U.S . Treasury, Wall, Economy, Britain's Treasury, Congressional, Britain's, Institution, Reuters Graphics ACT, King's College London, Labour Party, OECD, Graphics, Thomson Locations: of Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Italy, Britain, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Berlin, Paris, Rome, London, Brussels, Washington, Marrakech

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis. Not enough reforms are being implemented, OECD chief economist Clare Lombardelli warned.

Seoul/Hong Kong CNN —When Hwang Ji-sun, 52, first joined the assembly line at South Korean carmaker Hyundai 22 years ago, women like her had it tough. A wider problemDespite the incremental improvements, South Korea still has widespread problems of gender-based exclusion and low pay, researchers say. Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has proposed South Korea adopt new measures to help keep women in the workforce. Making childcare more affordable, lowering the number of working hours or allowing more flexible arrangements is key, she told a South Korean forum last September. In a culturally conservative society like South Korea, much more needs to be done to change perceptions about women in male-dominated professions, according to Hwang.

Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, Hwang Ji, Hwang —, ”, Jung Sungmi, Hwang, Yasuyoshi Chiba, PIIE, Gita Gopinath, Roh Helena, “ Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Hyundai, Korea Metal Workers ’ Union, CNN, ”, Economic Co, Development, Korean Women’s Development, Getty, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, country’s Ministry of Employment, Labor, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, South, “, Korean Women Workers Association, Hyundai Motor Locations: Seoul, Hong Kong, South Korea, Ulsan, United States, Turkey, India, Indonesia, AFP, South, Korea, South Korean

[1/2] A view shows the entrance of the venue for the upcoming meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, following last month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco October 1, 2023. Reuters GraphicsThe yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond this week pierced 5% for the first time since 2007. Long-term U.S. yields have climbed roughly 1 percentage point in the past three months compared with a single quarter-percentage-point Fed rate hike during that period. Keeping the world's largest economy out of recession provides steadier demand for other countries' exports, as well as more certainty as Fed rate hikes hit a stopping point. The fallout depends on "how much further, and how quickly, bond yields rise," they said.

Persons: Abdelhak, China's, Goldman Sachs, Gene Tannuzzo, Tannuzzo, Karen Dynan, it's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Treasuries, Reuters, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Columbia Threadneedle, Harvard University, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Capital Economics, Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, U.S, Washington, California

☆ China plans to ease one of the biggest hurdles for foreign business
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

China News Service | China News Service | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Chinese authorities are signaling a softer stance on once-stringent data rules, among recent moves to ease regulation for business, especially foreign ones. But foreign businesses have found it difficult to comply — if not operate — due to vague wording on terms such as "important data." The country's top executive body, the State Council, in August revealed a 24-point plan for supporting foreign business operations in the country. The text included a call to reduce the frequency of random inspections for companies with low credit risk, and promoting data flows with "green channels" for certain foreign businesses. When U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited China in August, she called for more action to improve predictability for U.S. businesses in China.

Persons: Reva Goujon, Goujon, Gabriel Wildau, Gina Raimondo, Martin Chorzempa, Samm Sacks, Yale Law School Paul, Chorzempa, Sacks, Beijing's Organizations: China News Service, Getty, Cyberspace Administration of China, Government, European Union Chamber of Commerce, CNBC, EU, State, China Corporate, CAC, State Council, Commerce, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Yale Law School, Yale Law School Paul Tsai China Center and New, Baidu Locations: Chongqing, BEIJING, China, Beijing, Covid, U.S, Yale Law School Paul Tsai China Center and New America

Meanwhile, failed uprisings in Bahrain and eastern Saudi Arabia were followed by years-long crackdowns and a continuing civil war in Syria. “What we’re beginning to see in Saudi Arabia right now is the emergence of a new social contract. Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest exporter of crude oil, and nearly two-thirds of its income still comes from selling fossil fuels. If Saudi Arabia can become a hub for major sporting events, then that’s a way of attracting interest to the country,” said Maguire. In response to previous criticism about Saudi Arabia’s purported “sportswashing,” the kingdom’s sports minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki Al-Faisal said: “People that don’t know Saudi Arabia, have never been to Saudi Arabia, go out and talk about it as if they’ve lived there for 30 years, 40 years.

Persons: Hilal, Kylian Mbappé, Germain, Neymar Jr, Ballon d’Or, Cristiano Ronaldo, Nassr, Patricia de Melo Moreira, it’s, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman –, Leon Neal, Ballon, Karim Benzema, Al Hilal, spender, –, Carlo Nohra, Jordan Henderson, Henderson, “, ’ ” Simon Chadwick, “ We’ve, ” Chadwick, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Al Nassr, Stringer, you’re, Kieran Maguire, they’re, Everybody’s, ” Maguire, Chadwick, Ronaldo, Maguire, … Mohammed bin Salman, ” James Dorsey, ”, Chadwick –, Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s, Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki Al, Faisal, don’t, they’ve, LIV Golf, Jimmy Dunne, LIV, Dunne, Aleksander Ceferin, Erling, Haaland, Jurgen Klopp, Michael Emenalo, Steven Gerrard, Nohra, ” “ They’ve Organizations: CNN, Saudi, Al, Paris Saint, PSG, Saudi Pro League, Ligue, Liga, Serie, Bundesliga, English Premier League, Deloitte, Investment Fund, AFP, Getty, SPL, Saudi Crown, Spanish, Arsenal, CNN Sport, English, Newcastle United, Liverpool, The Athletic, SKEMA Business School, Argentina, Zamalek, King Fahd Sports City, Anadolu Agency, Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, Football, AFC Asian, FIFA, Greece, Royal Spanish Football Federation, Spanish Super, ”, Amnesty International, Amnesty, Middle East Soccer, Saudi Ministry, Sport, PGA Tour, European, UEFA, Premier League, Ettifaq Media, Reuters New Saudi Pro League, Major League Soccer, La Liga, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Russian Direct Investment Fund, Investigations, PGA Locations: Saudi Arabian, Brazil, Saudi, Ittihad, Al, Ahli, Real Madrid, England, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Liverpool, China, Qatar, Taif, Egypt, Spanish, East, North Africa, Libya, Yemen, Tunisia, Bahrain, Syria, “, ”, Europe, ” Liverpool

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for August 2023, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesInflation rose in August on the back of higher gasoline prices, according to the consumer price index. Gasoline was the largest contributor to inflation in August, accounting for more than half of the increase, according to the BLS. This pared-down measure — known as "core" CPI — fell to an annual rate of 4.3% in August from 4.7% in July. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose slightly, to 0.3% in August from 0.2% in July. The increase in monthly core CPI "is a little bump in the road," said Kayla Bruun, senior economist at Morning Consult.

Persons: Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Kayla Bruun, " Bruun, Greg McBride, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Scott Olson Organizations: Anadolu Agency, Getty, Capital Economics, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, AAA, BLS, Transportation, U.S . Department, Morning, Bankrate, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: Virginia, U.S

☆ Free trade agreement a 'big achievement' for the Philippines and South Korea: Former trade minister
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFree trade agreement a 'big achievement' for the Philippines and South Korea: Former trade ministerYeo Han-Koo, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former South Korean trade minister, discusses the "really high level" free trade agreement that South Korea and the Philippines signed at the ASEAN summit.

Persons: Yeo Han, Koo Organizations: Peterson Institute for International Economics, South, ASEAN Locations: Philippines, South Korea, South Korean

Other countries that Vietnam has extended this designation to include China and Russia. Giving the U.S. the same status suggests that Vietnam wants to hedge its friendships as U.S. and European companies are looking for alternatives to Chinese factories. “We find ourselves in a situation where all of these changes around the world are taking place,” Biden explained about the Vietnam trip last month. "We have an opportunity, if we’re smart, to change the dynamic.”Political Cartoons View All 1148 ImagesU.S. trade with Vietnam has already accelerated since 2019. “I’ve gotten a call from the head of Vietnam, desperately wants to meet me when I go to the G20,” Biden said.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, they’re, Xi, ” Biden, Gina Raimondo, Raimondo, ” Raimondo, IPEF, Jake Sullivan, Lê Hoài Trung, Trung, Sullivan, Nguyễn Phú Trọng, I’ve, “, Gregory Poling, ” Poling, Poling, ” Organizations: DELHI, United, U.S, Group, Census, Peterson Institute of International Economics, White House, Biden, Communist Party of Vietnam, Southeast Asia Program, Asia Maritime, Center for Strategic, International Studies Locations: Vietnam, United States, China, Asia, Russia, Salt Lake City, India, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, U.S, Washington, Helsinki, Maine, Beijing, “

The logos of Swiss bank Credit Suisse and UBS are seen in Geneva, Switzerland, June 7, 2023. The powerful central bank, Swiss National Bank (SNB), said it disagreed with some of the suggestions, including on liquidity and on how the authorities work. It will change the landscape of banking in Switzerland, where branches of Credit Suisse and UBS are dotted everywhere, sometimes just metres apart. "(The) rescue of Credit Suisse isn't a perfect success but it's not a story of policy failure either. During the global financial crash of 2008, it was UBS, not Credit Suisse, that needed a state rescue.

Persons: Denis Balibouse, FINMA, Beat Wittmann, Nicolas Veron, it's, Oliver Hirt, John O'Donnell, Susan Fenton Organizations: Credit Suisse, UBS, REUTERS, Rights, UBS Group, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, –, Suisse, Social Democrat, Porta Advisors, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Thomson Locations: Geneva, Switzerland, Rights BERN, Swiss, Washington, Zurich

☆ The Chinese property market may look like it's imploding. But one expert doesn't think it'll cause a financial crisis — and there may even be a bright spot.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China's property troubles may slow the economy down, Nicholas Lardy, a China economy expert, told CNN. However, the issues will not create a financial crisis, he added. Even so, one Chinese economy expert thinks the crisis is unlikely to spill over into the broader economy. Advertisement Advertisement Watch: Ken Rogoff on the next financial crisis and the future of bitcoinChina's property sector has been gripped in a crisis since 2021 when property giant Evergrande ran into a liquidity crisis. The market was so hot that Chinese developers were taking on massive borrowings to build apartments ahead of demand.

Persons: Nicholas Lardy, it's, Ken Rogoff, Evergrande, Lardy, Lina Batarags Organizations: CNN, Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: China, Wall, Silicon

☆ Exodus of capital from China signals 'seismic' change in global flows as investors grow wary of autocratic regimes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's capital exodus is among the worst seen by emerging markets, said Robin Brooks, chief economist at IIF. That's as global investors have grown wary of autocratic regimes, he tweeted on Sunday. "The change in global capital flows is seismic. "But China has now seen consistent and large outflows for the past 18 months, as investors grow wary of autocracies." Global markets look at China in a new light," Brooks said in a separate X post.

Persons: Robin Brooks, Brooks, Ukraine that's, Adam Posen Organizations: IIF, Service, Institute of International Finance, hemorrhaging, CSI, Administration of Foreign Exchange, EPFR, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Foreign Affairs Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, outflows

That sobering view of a post-pandemic global economy emerged from research organized by the Kansas City Federal Reserve and debated here this past weekend. "This puts us in a bleak setting, thinking about the parts of the world that are labor rich but capital poor," he said. "I do remember a time, maybe a more naive time...when more trade would create friends," said Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England. If there was a potential bright spot, it was around the discussion of advances in artificial intelligence as a possible driver of higher productivity. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: JACKSON, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Maurice Obstfeld, Barry Eichengreen, Eswar Prasad, Donald Trump, Biden, Jared Bernstein, Bernstein, Ben Broadbent, Ngozi Okonjo, Iweala, Trump, Nela Richardson, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Kansas City Federal Reserve, U.S, Monetary Fund, Fed, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, University of California, Cornell University, U.S . White House Council, Economic, Biden, Bank of England, Trade Organization, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Ukraine, China, West, Washington . China, U.S, Berkeley, Japan, Nigeria, Russian, Europe

☆ 'Coldplay dollar' and 'Qatar dollar' highlight Argentina's bizarre currency system as it weighs ditching the peso
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Argentina's economic burdens have spawned a number of dollar-peso exchange rates. They include a black market dollar rate, as well as the "Coldplay" and "Qatar" rates. There's an official rate, but also a "blue dollar" rate determined by an underground exchange of greenbacks that's free of governmental controls. So while the official peso rate stood at just under 350-per-dollar on Friday, the blue dollar rate was 715. AdvertisementAdvertisementOther exchange rates are not spin-offs designed to evade currency restrictions, but are actually organized by the government.

Persons: Coldplay, There's, Monica de Bolle, Javier Milei, de Bolle Organizations: Service, Qatar, Coldplay, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: Qatar, Wall, Silicon, Argentina

The U.S. economy has avoided a threatened banking crisis and financial markets have not only aligned with the Federal Reserve's tight-credit policies but of late even helped the process by bidding up market interest rates. "I think Powell’s main effort is going to be explaining to what degree you want to hold (interest rates) higher for longer in the current outlook." Investors in contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark interest rate currently expect the Fed to begin reducing the policy rate next year from the current level set between 5.25% and 5.5%. Fed officials in fact have begun discussing the possibility of rate cuts down the road, at least in the context of steadily falling inflation. If inflation does decline as expected, Fed officials including Powell have suggested rate reductions might be appropriate to maintain a roughly constant inflation-adjusted "real rate."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jim Urquhart, JACKSON, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, who've, isn't, Adam Posen, William English, Donald Kohn, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Kansas, Fed, Northern Trust, Bank of England's, Committee, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Yale School of Management, Brookings Institution, Thomson Locations: Teton, Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Washington

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