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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is well positioned for a soft landing, says economist Paul McCulleyPaul McCulley, adjunct professor at Georgetown's McDonough School of Business and former chief economist at PIMCO, joins CNBC's Steve Liesman and 'The Exchange' to discuss a possible rate hike pause in June, the future of the Federal Reserve's hiking cycle, and ongoing recession concerns.
Persons: Paul McCulley Paul McCulley, Steve Liesman Organizations: Georgetown's McDonough School of Business
But as some argue, in its quest to avoid another taper tantrum, the Fed delayed that two-pronged tightening too long, which has partly contributed to the stickiness of inflation today. This lengthy buildup may have averted another taper tantrum, but tied the Fed's hands on raising rates even as inflation was roaring back. Markets thought this not only meant the Fed would soon "taper" its bond purchases, but also raise interest rates. The Fed and markets have learned their lessons from the taper tantrum. Maybe the taper tantrum illustrates that it wasn't as planned and consistent as it should have been," he said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer PIMCO chief economist: Overall Fed message will be high for longerPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist and Georgetown professor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the economist's thoughts on inflation, the Federal Reserve's data dependence, and more.
Bill Ackman, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mohamed El-Erian and others are warning the banking turmoil is far from over. That's prompting top economists and investors to once again warn that the banking turmoil is far from over. Below is a selection of the most recent warnings on US banking risks from high-profile investors, analysts and other experts. Bill Ackman, billionaire investor"The FDIC's failure to update and expand its insurance regime has hammered more nails in the coffin," Ackman said Wednesday on Twitter. He was raising doubts about Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's suggestion during a Wednesday press conference that the worst of the banking turmoil is over.
The Fed will finally cut interest rates in the fall, former PIMCO economist Paul McCulley predicted. That's because banking turmoil will put credit in a "tight vise," slowing the economy, he warned. Economists have flagged the risk of recession over the past year as the Fed aggressively hiked rates. Economists have been flagging the growing odds of recession over the past year, as the Fed raised interest rates over 1,700% to combat inflation. "We have this chronic condition that I think is a really tight vise on MainStreet lending," McCulley warned.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's next move will be a cut 'after Jackson Hole', says fmr. PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulleyPaul McCulley, PIMCO former chief economist, joins 'Fast Money' to discuss the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike decision, the regional banking crisis, and more.
ORLANDO, Florida, April 14 (Reuters) - Engineering a soft landing is hard. Blinder posits that the soft landing parameters of avoiding recession completely are too narrow. "To achieve another soft landing under these circumstances, the Fed will have to be skillful indeed," Blinder concludes. The Fed cut rates five months later and the rest is soft landing history. Of these 70 episodes, 41 ended with a hard landing and 29 with a soft landing.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBackdrop will convince Fed to pause this Spring, fmr. Pimco chief economist Paul McCulley predictsPaul McCulley, Former PIMCO Chief Economist, on the Fed's next move with CNBC's Melissa Lee and the "Fast Money" traders.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Former PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulleyPaul McCulley, Former PIMCO Chief Economist, on the Fed's next move with CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders.
Wall Street is wrong about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, according to former PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulley. Barring a surprise jump in inflation, he believes mounting economic pressures will convince the Fed to stop hiking interest rates next month. "It would be a pause and then a pivot [later this year]," McCulley told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Tuesday. According to Dow Jones estimates, Wall Street expects a 5.1% year-over-year increase versus 6% in February. "When the short end of the yield curve comes down and we re-slope the yield curve, then I think your garden variety, Main Street stocks will catch a bid," McCulley said.
Watch CNBC's full interview with former PIMCO's Paul McCulley
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with former PIMCO's Paul McCulleyPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist and Georgetown professor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his thoughts on the Fed and rate hikes.
JPMorgan's Kolanovic warns of possible 'Minsky moment' ahead
  + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Add up the recent bank failures, geopolitical shocks and uncertainty about central bank policy and you get the potential for a "Minsky moment" in markets, according to JPMorgan Chase. Marko Kolanovic, the firm's chief market strategist and co-head of global research, warned that the current conditions of unsustainable speculation and easy policy are ripe for a market collapse. "The possibility of a Minsky moment in markets and geopolitics has increased," he wrote in a client note Monday. "Even if central bankers successfully contain contagion, credit conditions look set to tighten more rapidly because of pressure from both markets and regulators." "Cracks are beginning to emerge in US credit fundamentals, and Euro credit spreads will likely continue to widen unless we see meaningful policy intervention," Kolanovic wrote.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCentral banks need to stop tightening, says former PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulleyCanaccord’s Tony Dwyer and former PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulley join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss stocks closing off lows, the financial sector and what they think the Fed will do at its next meeting.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Canaccord’s Tony Dwyer and Paul McCulley, fmr. chief economist at PIMCOCanaccord’s Tony Dwyer and fmr. PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulley, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss stocks closing off lows, the financial sector and greater markets.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed needs to be 'humble and nimble' after Silicon Valley Bank collapse, says Paul McCulleyPaul McCulley, former chief economist at PIMCO, joins CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” to discuss the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a shelf-life for popular risk-free trades, says fmr. PIMCO Chief Economist Paul McCulleyPaul McCulley, fmr. PIMCO chief economist, on what today's CPI print means for markets. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Dan Nathan, Karen Finerman, Tim Seymour and Julie Biel.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Paul McCulley and Victoria GreenePaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, and Victoria Greene, founding partner and chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss market forecasts and best investment areas for opportunity.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed delivers outcomes, markets bet on them, says Paul McCulleyPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, and Victoria Greene, founding partner and chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss market forecasts and best investment areas for opportunity.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Paul McCulley and Jason TrennertPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, and Jason Trennert, chairman and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, a Baird company, join 'The Exchange' to discuss why the Federal Reserve is still raising interest rates.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe are living in a 'unique' post-pandemic world, says Paul McCulleyPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, and Jason Trennert, chairman and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, a Baird company, join 'The Exchange' to discuss why the Federal Reserve is still raising interest rates.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPaul McCulley, fmr. PIMCO chief economist, expects the Fed to pivot in the second half of 2023Paul McCulley, fmr. PIMCO chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight and what that means for the markets.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Buy cheap and out of favor' this quarter, says Paul McCulley, fmr. PIMCO chief economistPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist and Georgetown adjunct professor, on what to expect from markets and inflation this year. With CNBC's Brian Sullivan and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's no reason for the Fed to incite recession to curb inflation, says JPMorgan's David KellyPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, and David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss inflation and whether the Fed's going to go too far with interest hikes, how investors should position for the long-run and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Georgetown's Paul McCulley and JPMorgan's David KellyPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, and David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether the Fed's likely to go too far with interest rate hikes, how investors should position for the long-run and more.
Stocks may retest lows this year and returns will be near-flat in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs' chief equities strategist David Kostin. The S&P 500 may hit 3,600 in the near term, as companies have revise 2023 earnings forecasts lower, he warned. Next year, the S&P 500 could see nearly flat returns, Kostin added, estimating that it could end 2023 at 3,750 to 4,000. "Therefore, if valuations are roughly at these levels – that's an optimistic scenario in my opinion – and there's not much earnings growth, you basically have a flat market," Kostin warned. And while the S&P 500 is down 17% from levels in January, the price-to-earnings ratio of the index is currently hovering around a multiple of 18.
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