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☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets rallied as Fed official renewed investors' hope for 25 basis-point hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Raphael Bostic, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, at the a conference in Dallas, Texas, U.S., on Thursday, May 24, 2018. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Yet markets' fears were allayed mere hours later when Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told the media he's in favor of lower — and slower — rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ The S&P 500 is close to breaking a level that could trigger another drop in stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 is flirting with a key resistance area that, if broken, could mean some more downside for stocks, say analysts who watch charts. The 200-day for the S & P 500 is at 3,940. In early trading, S & P 500 futures traded lower. Andy Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities, said the 200-day will likely be broken, meaning the S & P 500 will close below that level and stay there for awhile. "We now see [the S & P 500] going to 3800 or low 3800s ...

☆ Bond yields are close to a major psychological level that could really spook the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is hovering close to a key level that strategists say could give stock investors a fright. The 10-year Treasury yield broke through resistance in recent sessions and is now a hair below the important 4% level. It's very much an inverse relationship between yields and the stock market," said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. "That does suggest 4%, which is not a resistance level, but it's certainly a psychological level...It impacts people for nothing more than it's a round number. After the October high, Stockton said the next big level on the 10-year yield chart would be about 5.25%, a resistance level established in 2006.

☆ Stock market this year may defy March's usual history of positive gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

March is most often a positive month for the stock market, but this year it may bring more of the same turbulence that rattled investors in February. March is the fifth-best month for the S & P 500, according to CFRA data going back to 1945. 'Rockier' than thought "I think it's going to be rockier than people think," said Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors. "From our perspective, I think investors should be positioned that inflation is going to be tougher for the Fed to fight than people think," he said. "In the second half of the year, investors are going to come to grips with weakening earnings," said Bernstein.

☆ Powell's speech triggered record options bets, topping even the meme stock frenzy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

he asked in a note, adding that the previous record amount of call buying activity was in January 2021 just as the meme stock frenzy peaked. Those options were big market bets, like in the SPDR S & P 500 ETF and Invesco QQQ Trust, which represents the Nasdaq 100. SPY 5D line spy Much of the volume was in zero-day to expiration options, which expire on the same day. "The reality is if you bought the stock market in January 2021 and held onto it for any time period, you would be happy." Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon spyMuch of the volume was in zero-day to expiration options, which expire on the same day.

☆ Evercore ISI says look for these value names with momentum to outperform as inflation falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

He screened the Russell 1000 for "valmentum" stocks that he expects will outperform and have characteristics of both growth and value. Stocks on the list have a high level of short interest, as well as good growth momentum and strong free cash flow yield, which is a value trait. It's a stock picker's market," said Emanuel, who heads Evercore ISI equity, derivatives and quantitative strategy. Airbnb has an estimated free cash flow yield of 5% and expected earnings growth this year of more than 9%. Booking's free cash flow is expected to be 5.4% this year, and its earnings are expected to grow 26.4%.

☆ Asia markets to rise while U.S. jobs report hints at room for more hikes, Adani saga continues
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

For now, it's a quarter point [hike]. In the futures market, traders were betting on an end rate, or terminal rate near 5%. The market is pricing in a 25 basis point hike for March. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. But Jeffery said the futures market is now pricing in more of a chance for a quarter point hike in May as well.

☆ Boom in January jobs shows employers fear worker shortage more than recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

January's super strong jobs report underscores that employers are more worried about not having enough workers than they are about a slowing economy. But Zandi notes that of all the components of the jobs report, the one that matters most to the Fed is average hourly wages, and they have been coming down. It's just really strong," said Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies. The strong report means interest rates will continue to rise, and the Federal Reserve will raise benchmark overnight lending rates by another quarter point in March. ISM Services data Friday reinforced some of the strength in the jobs report.

☆ Earnings and Fed Chair Powell will again drive markets in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

With few economic releases and the earnings season starting to wind down, an appearance by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Tuesday could be among the newsiest events for markets in the week ahead. The Fed chair is speaking at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. at midday Tuesday. If he wanted to walk back anything, he could have done it then," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley. Economists said Friday's surprisingly strong jobs report should encourage the Fed to push forward with planned rate hikes. Earnings, earnings, earnings But there continues to be earnings news.

☆ January job growth is forecast to slow slightly, but the impact from big corporate layoffs is uncertain
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Economists expect slightly slower, but still strong job growth in January, while the impact of corporate layoff announcements is unclear. According to Dow Jones, the consensus forecast calls for 187,000 new nonfarm jobs in January, down from 223,000 that were created in December. "The number is not really the number of jobs created, but how many fewer workers were let go," he said. The jobs report is of key importance for the Federal Reserve, which has been trying to slow the economy —and inflation — by cooling the hot labor market. Goldman Sachs economists forecast a payrolls increase of 300,000 for last month and said their above consensus forecast was based on the fact that companies do not yet seem to be implementing layoffs, despite the announcements.

☆ As stocks surge, some chart signals have been looking better despite lingering risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell triggered a surge in stocks when he spoke Wednesday , taking the S & P 500 into a new range. Redler expects a near term peak for the S & P 500 could be around 4,200-4,220. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq were both higher Thursday, as the 10-year Treasury yield continued its slide to a low of 3.35%. He's watching the growing number of three-month highs in the Russell 1000 and S & P 600 , which are now outpacing the new highs in the S & P 500. The VIX is based on puts and calls in the S & P 500.

☆ BlackRock's Rieder says investors should hold more bonds, international stocks should outperform
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

BlackRock's Rick Rieder said the 60/40 portfolio should be flipped to 40% stocks, 60% bonds this year, and that international stocks should outperform U.S. equities. Rieder, chief investment officer for global fixed income at the world's largest asset manager, said he finds U.S. stocks less interesting relative to bonds. Both stocks and bonds were sharply lower, and the traditional benefits of one asset class hedging the other did not work. International stocks over U.S. equities International stocks could also outpace U.S. stock. I like some the global equities a lot more than the U.S." He also is looking to global fixed income markets.

☆ How the Fed managed to spark a stock market rally while sticking to tough talk on interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell talked tough Wednesday, promising more rate hikes in the unrelenting battle against inflation, but he also let slip a few comments dovish enough to send the stock market sharply higher. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates Wednesday afternoon by a quarter point, as expected, and also kept a comment in its statement that it anticipates ongoing rate hikes. .SPX 1D line stocks Powell spoke afterward at a press conference, warning the market of more rate hikes and a tough stance on inflation. But traders seemed to cherry pick comments that had a dovish tilt to them, and the stock market reversed course and rallied hard. In its statement, the Fed swapped out the word "pace" for "extent" of future rate hikes when describing what it would take into account in in deciding on further increases.

☆ Fed expected to slow rate hiking to a quarter point but will stay unrelenting in inflation battle
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"He's going to do that by still saying the Fed's going to stay tight for a while. The Fed's rate hike Wednesday would be the eighth since last March. That is just a half percentage point away from the Fed's estimated end point, or terminal rate range of 5% to 5.25%. In the futures market, fed funds futures continued to price a terminal rate of less than 5%. "I think he's going to be hawkish relative to market pricing," said Jim Caron, head of macro strategies for global fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

☆ If January is the barometer it historically has been, stocks could see a very strong year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

He said this year has even more reasons to be higher, since other market performance indicators are also positive. For instance, stocks were higher in the Santa rally period in the final five trading days of December and the first two of January. "If you add the third level, with the market positive in January, the market was up a shade more than 29% and was up 100% of the time." spThe average annual S&P 500 gain for any year is about 9%, but Stovall said when the prior year is negative there's historically a higher bounce and the rally averages 14%. "If you add the third level, with the market positive in January, the market was up a shade more than 29% and was up 100% of the time."

☆ Earnings are showing signs of strain and are likely to get worse as economy slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-29 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Earnings for all S & P 500 companies fell 2.9% for the fourth quarter, based on actual reports and estimates. Rauscher expects a shallow recession, and his view is S & P 500 earnings for 2023 will be about $210, below the street's consensus closer to $230. According to Refinitiv, analysts expect a 1.2% decline in first quarter earnings, followed by a 2% drop in the second quarter. Tech earnings have been a mixed bag. He remains defensive on the market even with the 6.5% gain in the S & P 500 in January so far.

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☆ Stocks may face an inflection point in the week ahead as the Fed meets and Apple posts earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The Fed's meeting Tuesday and Wednesday comes amid a flood of corporate earnings reports, with about 20% of the S & P 500 reporting that week. The most important day for earnings is Thursday, when Apple , Alphabet and Amazon report after the bell. The Nasdaq Composite was up 11% for the month as of Friday afternoon, well ahead of the 6.2% gain in the S & P 500. Traders have been watching the S & P 500 edge closer to the key threshold of 4,100 , its high from December. AAPL 1Y line apple Apple is also important because of the signals it can send about the strength of the consumer, supply chains and China's reopening.

☆ Microsoft, Tesla stock moves hint at positive signs for the market, chart analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The S & P 500 ended Thursday at 4,060.43. A key test for the S & P 500 The S & P 500 pushed above its 200-day moving average last Friday. Redler, who follows short-term technicals, said it is important for the S & P 500 to hold between 3,970 and 3,990. She said the S & P 500 is showing signs of being overbought short term, though there continues to be short-term upside momentum. We need to see stocks like Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, we need to see these stocks going from downtrend to uptrend.

☆ GDP report could show solid fourth-quarter growth but still signal a recession is coming, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Economic growth is expected to have slowed slightly in the fourth quarter but was still solid, driven by a strong consumer. According to Dow Jones, economists expect that U.S. gross domestic product grew by 2.8% in the fourth quarter, down from the 3.2% pace in the third quarter. While economists see a strong fourth quarter, they are divided on where the economy goes from here and a key is the consumer. The slowdown in residential investment has taken a full percentage point off of growth in the fourth quarter, he said. Some market strategists see a strong fourth quarter as another sign the economy could avoid falling into recession, and a better-than-expected report could reinforce that view.

☆ How the dollar's sharp reversal could be an unexpected positive for these companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But with the dollar's stunning reversal since then, some companies should conversely start to catch a currency break and potentially see upside surprises. In the fourth quarter, because of the sophisticated hedging strategies from companies, they may not get the full benefit of the dollar's decline. Johnson & Johnson, for instance, said fourth quarter sales fell, in part because of the negative impact from currency translation. 3M said fourth quarter sales were 5% lower than they would have been were it not for the stronger dollar. Sacconaghi said the market has typically rewarded tech companies' "currency beats."

☆ Earnings could keep the market on edge in week ahead as investors wait for Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

I do think that will happen even more in the week ahead as the Fed is in a blackout period. S & P Global PMI data is released for both services and manufacturing Tuesday. "The market continues to think the Fed does not have to administer as much medicine as the Fed tells us they plan to. Earnings, earnings, earnings Stocks were lower in the past week, with the S & P 500 off by 1.8%. "It's a mild earnings recession, but it's an earnings recession.

☆ The case for investing in China's reopening is strong. Here's how to proceed with caution
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

Strategists see China's markets easily scoring double-digit gains this year. The case for investing outside the U.S. is strong, particularly with the dollar coming off its highs and looking at further downside. "While China's reopening is undoubtedly a turning point, there remain reasons to be cautious," wrote Barclays equity strategists. But still the prospects for China's economy are much brighter than they were just several months ago. The Covid lockdown has been so damaging to the Chinese economy, they want to get back to a growth path in 2023."

☆ Morgan Stanley’s Slimmon says stocks will surprise Wall Street in 2023 — and names two he likes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wall Street strategists expect this year to end on a much better note than 2022 — but they still warn that the path ahead looks volatile. However, Morgan Stanley's Andrew Slimmon said he believes stocks are going to do "far better" than most expect. Slimmon also likes Pool Corp , a Louisiana-based company that sells swimming pool supplies. Fed pivot in the works His relatively positive read on the economy is a big reason for his optimism about the market. But Slimmon said he believes the bond market is signaling that the U.S. Federal Reserve will pivot "sooner than it expects."

☆ Investors are holding near-record levels of cash and may be poised to snap up stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But the question is this: Will those investors return any time soon, especially with sentiment still so sour and stocks at risk of a major selloff? Total net assets in money market funds rose to $4.814 trillion in the week ended Jan. 4, according to the Investment Company Institute. At the same time, money market funds are actually generating a few percentage points of income for the first time in years. Consider that sweep accounts, where investors hold unused cash balances in their brokerage accounts, can park those amounts in money market mutual funds or money market deposit accounts. To me this was people basically selling the market at the end of the year, and they just parked it in the money market funds.

☆ Wall Street's fear gauge has dipped below a key level. Why that could mean more trouble for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Each time, the S & P 500 subsequently sold off. "We're watching the 50-day moving average [on the VIX] as a risk metric for the S & P 500," she said. "Looking at past major routs in the S & P 500, it's always associated with a VIX at a much higher level. Emanuel's strategy involves buying March 31 S & P 500 puts and calls that are out of the money. Murphy said it seems the volatility in the S & P 500 will be to the downside.

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