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☆ Inflation is still a mixed bag, but markets don't care. They see big Fed rate cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

December's inflation data provided just enough evidence to show that the pace of price increases is continuing to cool while also serving up a reminder that the war isn't won yet. One is that regardless of the headline numbers, the parts of inflation that don't fluctuate as much have been fairly stubborn. So-called sticky inflation, which includes things such as housing costs, auto insurance, medical care services and household furnishings, are indeed holding higher. On a one-month annualized basis, the measure also was at 4.6%, but that's up a full percentage point from the previous month. Fed policymakers also are attuned to the relationship between wages and inflation.

Persons: isn't, Disinflation, Jamie Dimon, cautioning, Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ian Shepherdson, Dan North Organizations: Separate Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nomura Global Economics, JPMorgan Chase, Evercore ISI, PPI, Citigroup, Commerce, Fed, Pantheon, Atlanta, Allianz Trade Locations: Red

☆ EU inflation will fall faster-than-expected, says Pantheon's Claus Vistesen
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEU inflation will fall faster-than-expected, says Pantheon's Claus VistesenClaus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the implications of the election in the Netherlands, the ECB's rate hike outlook, and more.

Persons: Pantheon's Claus Vistesen Claus Vistesen Organizations: Pantheon Locations: Netherlands

☆ 'The damage has already been done': A 31-year market vet shares 3 pieces of evidence that the labor market is about to collapse, sending the economy into recession and the stock market spiraling
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US economy added just 150,000 jobs, under the expected 180,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, now 0.5% higher than its low earlier this year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Bullandbearprofits.comSecond, the inverted yield curve is starting to steepen. An inverted yield curve has been an extremely reliable recession indicator over the last several decades. Bullandbearprofits.com"Proven leading indicators show that the unemployment rate is likely to start rising materially soon. Piper SandlerIn addition to the yield curve and employment indicators above, other recession indicators continue to point to a downturn ahead.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merril Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, bode, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent, Fed, Bank of America, Societe Generale's, Generale, Edwards . Societe Generale Locations: lockstep, Edwards .

☆ Mexico inflation still easing but rate cuts seen only next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A man buys vegetables at a stall in an outdoor market in downtown of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. Consumer prices rose 0.38% in October, according to non-seasonally adjusted figures, mainly driven by core inflation including higher food, beverage and service costs. The annual headline inflation reading came in slightly below economist forecasts in a Reuters poll, which stood at 4.28%. The closely monitored core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.39% during the month, while annual core inflation came in at 5.5%, in line with market expectations. "This report strengthens our view that headline inflation will remain under control over the coming months," said Pantheon Macroeconomics chief Latin America economist Andres Abadia, but "admittedly services inflation is still a bit sticky.

Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Jason Tuvey, Banxico, Andres Abadia, Gabriel Araujo, Steven Grattan, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, Capital, Sao Paulo, Thomson Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Bank of Mexico, Banxico, America, Sao

☆ China suffers its first foreign investment deficit as US tensions and anti-spying laws spark a western exodus
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China just posted a quarterly foreign investment deficit for the first time. Officials have released foreign direct investment figures each quarter for the past 25 years – and it's the first time the gauge has turned negative, Reuters reported. The deficit suggests that western countries and companies are shunning China with Sino-US tensions steadily rising and new anti-spying laws spooking international investors. Analysts flagged that clampdown as one factor driving the decline in foreign direct investment. The foreign direct investment deficit is far from the only economic headache that Beijing faces.

Persons: China's, —, Joe Biden, Duncan Wrigley, Mark Mobius, he'd Organizations: Service, State Administration of Foreign, Reuters, Analysts, Macroeconomics, Bloomberg, " International, Micron, Bain, Co Locations: China, Beijing, Shanghai

Looking ahead, the ongoing pass-through of the European Central Bank's monetary policy tightening, still no reversal of the inventory cycle and new geopolitical uncertainties will continue weighing on the German economy, Brzeski said. "The German economy looks set to remain in the twilight zone between minor contraction and stagnation not only this year but also next year," Brzeski said. The contraction in the third quarter is not seen as an outlier as Commerzbank expects the German economy to contract again in the winter half-year. Economists will pay close attention to national inflation data from Germany and Spain, as they are published one day before the euro zone inflation data release. Euro zone inflation is expected to ease to 3.2% in October from 4.3% in September, according to economists polled by Reuters.

Persons: Arnd, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, optimists, Joerg Kraemer, Claus Vistesen, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Rachel More, Miral Fahmy, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Gross, Reuters, ING, European Central, Macroeconomics, Thomson Locations: Konstanz, Germany, Spain

☆ US growth boom tees up year-end bust
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The latest report on the country's growth is worth celebrating, but not for too long. Household incomes after inflation and taxes fell by $71 billion in the third quarter, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. That shrank in the third quarter, with managers flagging peak interest rates as a larger concern, leaving less in the pipeline. Yet stores spent $81 billion in excess inventory last quarter and are likely to wait to restock shelves. Last quarter’s boom should give way to a bust.

Persons: Lee Jae, LSEG, Ben Winck, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Rights, Reuters, Macroeconomics, Savings, Companies, X, Unilever, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ The private sector added just 89,000 jobs last month, far below expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis CNN —US employers in the private sector added an estimated 89,000 jobs in September, a much lower total than expected and a potential indication of a sharp pullback in the labor market, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday. The September tally landed well below economists’ estimates for 153,000 jobs added, as well as August’s upwardly revised total of 180,000 jobs added. While ADP’s tabulations don’t always correlate with the official federal jobs report — due out Friday — it’s sometimes viewed as a proxy for overall hiring activity, which has been gradually easing. “We’ve seen other times when we’ve had a relatively weak private sector number sandwiched between two stronger months,” Richardson said during a call with reporters. The BLS is set to release the all-important monthly jobs report for September at 8:30am ET on Friday.

Persons: ”, Nela Richardson, tabulations, it’s, We’ve, we’ve, ” Richardson, Ian Shepherdson, ” Shepherdson Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, ADP, ”, of Labor Statistics, Labor Locations: Minneapolis

☆ India to hold top spot for economic growth but risks to downside remain: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

After a stellar 7.8% expansion last quarter, economic growth was expected to moderate to 6.4% this quarter and then drop to 6.0% in the October-December period before slowing to 5.5% in early 2024. "A lot of the drivers that drove the really strong growth from the middle of 2021 to last year have been exhausted. A weak external backdrop is weighing on Indian economic growth as well as sluggish private consumption and sluggish investment." A majority of economists, 22 of 36, who answered an additional question said the risks to their FY 2023/2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside. Government measures should cool food prices in the coming months, but rising oil prices will likely place upward pressure on headline inflation."

Persons: Narendra Modi's, we're, Miguel Chanco, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Sujith Pai, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jonathan Cable, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Pantheon, Reserve Bank of India, That's, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Asia

The preliminary reading of the UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the services sector sank to its lowest since the pandemic lockdown of January 2021 and below all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists. PMIs for the euro zone picked up a little but still suggested a recession was approaching. Official data showed retail sales rose in August, partially recovering from a rain-induced plunge in July, and a measure of consumer confidence climbed to its highest since January 2022. However, data company S&P Global said its survey was consistent with a drop in quarterly economic output of 0.4%. "The disappointing PMI survey results for September mean a recession is looking increasingly likely in the UK," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global.

Persons: Molly Darlington, BoE, Sterling, Martin Beck, Beck, Chris Williamson, Samuel Tombs, Andy Bruce, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, P, CBI, Bank of England, P Global, U.S, Confederation of British Industry, PMI, Pantheon, Thomson Locations: Altrincham, Britain

Student loan repayments restart in October after a three-year suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic. In isolation, none would likely shift policymakers' sense of the short-term risks or change their focus on quelling still-elevated inflation. By Goldman's estimate the economy would still be growing at a 1.3% annual rate at that point. But the amounts they see sliced from GDP are more than the 1% growth rate Fed officials expected the economy to muster as of June, and beyond many private forecasts as well. Some economists say the resumption of student loan repayments for tens of millions of borrowers may already be reshaping behavior.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, Reinhart, Michael Pearce, Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, They've, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Federal, Republicans, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Mellon, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Congressional, U.S . Department, Education, Thomson

☆ Striking unions impacting the economy at a level not seen in decades
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

watch nowThe auto workers' strike is the latest in a series of labor-management conflicts that economists say could start having significant growth impacts if they persist. So far, the United Auto Workers stoppage has impacted just a small portion of the workforce with limited implications for the broader economy. United Auto Workers (UAW) members on a picket line outside the Stellantis NV Toledo Assembly Complex in Toldeo, Ohio, on Monday, Sept. 18, 2023. August alone saw some 4.1 million labor hours lost this year, the most for a single month since August 2000, according to the Labor Department. Year to date, there have been 7.4 million hours lost, compared to just 636 hours total for the same period in 2022.

Persons: Ian Shepherdson, Emily Elconin, Shepherdson, Doris Dear, John Nacion, Joseph Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Biden, Janet Yellen, CNBC's Sara Eisen Organizations: United Auto Workers, Labor Department statistics, Pantheon, UAW, Stellantis NV, Bloomberg, Getty, Big Three, Ford, GM, Federal Reserve, Labor, Labor Department, HBO, National Union Solidarity, Writers Guild of America, Screen Actors Guild, University of Michigan, RSM, York Fed Locations: Stellantis NV Toledo, Toldeo , Ohio, U.S, New York City, John, Los Angeles, California , Oregon, Washington, York

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMonth-to-month inflation numbers "will inevitably hop around," wrote Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson, who sees underlying consumer inflation nevertheless slowing to a "benign" level of below 3% by early next year. Since their meeting in July, only two Fed policymakers have said they felt rates do not need to rise further, while others noted their outlook for slowing inflation was built around a slightly higher federal funds rate. Overall bank credit has been falling on a year-over-year basis since mid-July, evidence of financial firms tightening access either through higher rates or stricter standards. By and large Fed officials feel the economy can grow about 1.8% a year with inflation at the 2% target and assuming "appropriate monetary policy." The outlook has diminished prospects for a U.S. recession, but may well keep Fed concerns about high - or higher - inflation alive.

Persons: Jessica Rinaldi, Ian Shepherdson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Torsten Slok, Goldman Sachs, Steven Blitz, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Investors, Apollo Global Management, Lombard Chief U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: Flushing , New York, U.S

Output had risen 0.5% in June, and the economy grew 0.2% over the three months to the end of July. The data underlined signs that Britain's economy is weakening, perhaps by more than the Bank of England had expected ahead of its September interest rate meeting. "Either way, it does suggest that higher interest rates and sticky inflation are having a more significant effect on the economy." Unusually wet weather in July hurt output at retailers and in the construction sector, which fell 0.5%, the ONS said. Wednesday's data does not include recent, substantial upward revisions to the performance of Britain's economy up to the end of 2021.

Persons: Toby Melville, Sterling, BoE, Neil Birrell, Samuel Tombs, Andy Bruce, David Milliken, William James, Alison Williams Organizations: St Thomas ' Hospital, REUTERS, LONDON, National Statistics, Bank of England, Premier Miton, ONS, Thomson Locations: St, London, Britain, England

☆ Analysis: Investors call 'peak pessimism' for beaten-up UK stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"It feels like we've passed the peak of pessimism about the UK," said Daniel Lockyer, senior fund manager at 7 billion-pound investment and advice group Hawksmoor Investment Management, which increased its exposure to UK companies in August. Consumer stocks are outperforming as investors bet on the UK cost of living crisis becoming less intense. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsLeigh Himsworth, UK fund manager at Fidelity International, said he was "trying to pick off UK retailers we can buy", while it was also "time to pick up some of the (UK) real estate sector." But while noting good economic reasons to call an upturn for UK stocks, fund managers also stressed the need for further steps from policymakers to revive interest in British equities. Premier Miton is lobbying policymakers to introduce a new tax-efficient investment vehicle for UK stocks.

Persons: Toby Melville, we've, Daniel Lockyer, Morningstar, Martin Walker, Walker, Samuel Tombs, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics Leigh Himsworth, Spencer, Neil Birrell, Premier Miton, Miton, Savvas Savouri, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Inflation, LONDON, Apple, FTSE, Investment Management, Global, Reuters, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Fidelity International, Premier, Fidelity, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, U.S, COVID, outflows

☆ Mexican core inflation slows more than expected to 20-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Natalia Siniawski | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

That drop was off the back of lower core goods inflation, Capital Economics analyst Jason Tuvey said, while services inflation - which central bank board members have described as "sticky" - remained above 5% year over year. Annual core inflation in the second half of the month was "good news," said central bank board member Jonathan Heath on social media network X. Headline inflation edged downward to 4.64% in the month, in line with market expectations and its lowest since March 2021. That was driven by softer core price pressures, Capital's Tuvey said, but with inflation in the services sector still proving stubborn, the central bank is still unlikely to kick off an interest-rate easing cycle soon. The closely watched core price index rose 0.27% during the month (MXCPIX=ECI).

Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Jason Tuvey, Jonathan Heath, Capital's Tuvey, Andres Abadia, Natalia Siniawski, Kylie Madry, Frances Kerry, Aurora Ellis Organizations: REUTERS, Capital, Reuters, of, Macroeconomics, America, Thomson Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, of Mexico

☆ Chinese investment in traditional sectors poised to increase, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChinese investment in traditional sectors poised to increase, economist saysDuncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says forthcoming data is likely to show an acceleration in investment in China's traditional sectors, including infrastructure and property.

Persons: Duncan Wrigley Organizations: Pantheon Locations: China

☆ Global business activity showed signs of slowdown in August -PMIs
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Germany's services sector contracted for the first time this year and France's shrank more than first estimated. Japan proved an outlier as service sector activity expanded there at its quickest pace in three months, underpinned by robust consumer spending as inbound tourism regained momentum. "August's services PMI pointed to a contraction in UK private sector activity. ASIAN PAINChina's Caixin/S&P Global services PMI dropped to 51.8 in August from 54.1 in July, the lowest reading since December when COVID-19 confined many consumers to their homes. The data broadly aligned with the official services PMI released last week, which showed the sector continued to trend downwards.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Adrian Prettejohn, Martin Beck, Duncan Wrigley, Jonathan Cable, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, RBC, P Global, Capital Economics, PMI, Bank of Japan, Pantheon, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, India, Japan, Asia, July's, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, COVID

☆ GLOBAL ECONOMY Global business activity showed signs of slowdown in August -PMIs
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ We're probably at the peak now for mortgage rates, says Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian Shepherdson
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're probably at the peak now for mortgage rates, says Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian ShepherdsonIan Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomic founder and chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of housing availability & affordability, why he sees no inflation threat from housing for the foreseeable future, and more.

Persons: Ian Shepherdson Ian Shepherdson

Net borrowing, excluding state-owned banks, stood at 4.3 billion pounds ($5.49 billion) last month, less than the median forecast of 5.0 billion pounds in a Reuters poll of economists. In the first four months of the financial year, borrowing stood at 56.6 billion pounds. "As inflation slows, it's vital that we don’t alter our course and continue to act responsibly with the public finances," Hunt said in a statement after the data. Interest costs rose by 1.5 billion pounds compared with July last year to 7.7 billion pounds, the highest for July since records began in April 1997. The public finances were boosted by inflows of self-assessed income tax receipts which are typically strong in July, which stood at 11.8 billion pounds, 2.5 billion pounds more than in July last year.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Jessica Taylor, Handout, Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss's, Ruth Gregory, Gregory, Gabriella Dickens, William Schomberg, Sachin Ravikumar, Andrew Heavens, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, Reuters, Bank of England, Conservative Party, Treasury, Capital Economics, Senior, National Statistics, Britain's, Thomson Locations: London, Britain

Official data showed sales volumes last month were 1.2% lower than in June. Food stores sales volumes fell by a monthly 2.6% while non-food stores sales volumes fell by 1.7%. However, July's data represented only the second time that sales volumes fell on a month-to-month basis so far in 2023, suggesting resilience in consumer demand. Market research firm GfK reported last month that consumer confidence fell in July for the first time since January. Retail sales volumes were 3.2% lower than a year earlier, the ONS said, compared with economists' forecasts for a 2.1% decline.

Persons: Sterling, Heather Bovill, Ruth Gregory, GfK, Samuel Tombs, BoE, Tombs, Spencer, James Davey, Kate Holton, Susan Fenton Organizations: Reuters, Office, National Statistics, Department, Bank of England, Capital Economics, Macroeconomics, Thomson

Annual pay growth including bonuses also accelerated, hitting 8.2%, the fastest outside the coronavirus pandemic period when government job subsidies distorted the data. Two-year British government bond yields, which are sensitive to speculation about BoE rate changes, hit their highest level in a month. Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said wage increases were set to slow in the second half of 2023. "The momentum in wage growth still is too strong for the Committee to take a break just yet," Tombs said. However, inactivity due to long-term sickness rose to a new record high, adding to the problems for employers seeking to fill job vacancies and adding to the pressure on pay growth.

Persons: BoE, Sterling, Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, it's, Sharon Graham, Sachin Ravikumar, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Reuters, Sterling, Bank of England, Pantheon, Public, Unite, Union, Thomson Locations: Britain

☆ US consumers are feeling less optimistic about the economy for the first time this summer
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —Americans became slightly less optimistic about the economy this month, following two straight months of growing confidence. Sentiment had been on an upswing throughout the summer, mostly due to slower inflation, and is well above the record lows reached this time last year. Signs of cooling inflationGas prices, which are highly visible indicators of inflation for consumers, have risen in recent weeks, which could weigh on sentiment in the future. Still, consumers face the resumption of student loan payments later this year, and that could weigh on household budgets. US consumers opened up their wallets this summer, with many flocking to the smash-hit “Barbie” movie, attending concerts by Taylor Swift or Beyoncé, or traveling abroad.

Persons: “, ”, Joanne Hsu, Ryan Sweet, bode, Kieran Clancy, Barbie, Taylor Swift Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan, University of Michigan’s, University, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Pantheon, Consumer, Commerce Department, Federal, Atlanta Locations: Washington, June’s, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Michigan

A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to approvals of 49,000, after 51,143 mortgages were approved in May. The value of net mortgage lending for the second quarter as a whole fell compared with the first quarter - the first quarterly contraction since records began in 1987. The BoE is expected to raise interest rates to 5.25% on Thursday from 5.0%, which would be the highest Bank Rate since 2008. "Looking ahead, growth in households' real disposable incomes will be weighed down by mortgage refinancing," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics. The BoE reported a 1.661 billion pound ($2.13 billion) monthly increase in net consumer lending June, the largest such increase since April 2018.

Persons: Banks, Liz Truss, BoE, Thomas Pugh, Samuel Tombs, Andy Bruce, David Milliken, Sarah Young, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank of, RSM, Thomson

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