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Pipelines run to Enbridge Inc.'s crude oil storage tanks at their tank farm in Cushing, Oklahoma. Cushing crude inventories have declined in five of the most recent six weeks by a total of 9 million barrels (-24%) since July 14. The drawdown in U.S. crude inventories has coincided with additional production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia totalling around 75 million barrels during July and August. U.S. NET CRUDE IMPORTSU.S. net crude oil imports remain subdued despite the depletion of inventories with exports continuing to run at a relatively fast rate while imports stay low. Related columns:- Oil market to tighten modestly in late 2023 (August 17, 2023)- Crude oil and fuels draw funds as sentiment shifts (August 7, 2023)- U.S. oil and gas production begins to flatten (August 4, 2023)- Saudi output cut removes downside risk from oil market (July 12, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Nick Oxford, CUSHING, Cushing, Biden, John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: Enbridge Inc, REUTERS, U.S . Energy Information Administration, refiners, Traders, NET, U.S . Department of Energy, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, Chartbook, Cushing, Oklahoma, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, Asia, Europe, Asia . U.S, Ukraine, Saudi

LONDON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices have stalled as the wave of hedge fund buying that helped lift them throughout July and the first part of August has been replaced by gentle selling. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 30 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on Aug. 22. Nearly all the sales were in crude (-29 million barrels) with sales of NYMEX and ICE WTI (-16 million barrels) and Brent (-13 million barrels), according to position records filed with regulators and exchanges. There was a mix of profit-taking after the previous rally by liquidating existing bullish long positions (-18 million barrels) and speculative short sales (+11 million barrels) in anticipation of future price falls. There are also increasing indications the United States is relaxing sanctions on crude exports from Iran and Venezuela in exchange for diplomatic objectives and to keep a lid on oil prices.

Persons: Brent, John Kemp, Barbara Lewis Organizations: ICE, Henry, U.S . National Oceanic, Prediction Center, CPC, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, COVID, States, Iran, Venezuela, NYMEX, United States, Pacific, North America

Position-taking was also likely hit by the traditional seasonal torpor that descends in the middle of August with many senior trading and investment staff across North America and Europe on holiday. Purchases of Brent (+20 million barrels), U.S. gasoline (+6 million) and European gas oil (+4 million) were offset by sales of NYMEX and ICE WTI (-29 million) and U.S. diesel (-1 million). Funds held a net long position of 707 billion cubic feet (47th percentile for all weeks since 2010) up from a net short position of 1,061 billion cubic feet (7th percentile) at the end of January. Working gas inventories in underground storage were +188 billion cubic feet (+7% or +0.58 standard deviations) above the prior 10-year seasonal average on Aug. 11. The surplus has narrowed consistently from +299 billion cubic feet (+12% or +0.81 standard deviations) at the end of June.

Persons: John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: North, ICE, U.S . diesel, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: North America, Europe, Brent, U.S

☆ Los Angeles refiners prepare for Hurricane Hilary
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Erwin Seba | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A general view of the Phillips 66 Company's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil into gasoline, aviation and diesel fuels, at sunset in Carson, California, U.S., March 11, 2022. Phillips 66 (PSX.N) said operations at its 139,000-bpd Los Angeles refinery were unaffected by the storm. Local and state regulators did not report any changes in operations at Los Angeles refineries on Friday and West Coast refined market traders said they did not know of any cut backs in production. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Hilary is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves east of Los Angeles on Monday. Heavy rain, possible flash flooding and winds at 40 miles per hour (64 kph) or stronger are forecast for Los Angeles on Sunday and Monday.

Persons: Bing Guan, Hurricane Hilary, Hilary, Erwin Seba, Grant McCool Organizations: Phillips, Los, Los Angeles Refinery, Rights, Chevron, Valero, Marathon Petroleum, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S, National Hurricane Center, Los Angeles, Sunday, U.S ., Gulf, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles, Carson , California, U.S, California, Local, Coast, Los, U.S . West Coast, Asia, Gulf Coast

Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 10 million barrels of futures and options on U.S. diesel and European gas oil over the seven days ending Aug. 8. In the premier NYMEX WTI contract, short positions had been reduced by 91 million barrels or two-thirds since June 27. The total position has risen to a net long of 707 billion cubic feet (47th percentile for all weeks since 2010) up from a net short of 1,061 billion cubic feet (7th percentile) at the end of January. But the surplus had narrowed slowly but progressively from 299 billion cubic feet (+12% or +0.81 standard deviations) on June 30. Related columns:- U.S. diesel prices surge anticipating a soft landing (Aug. 11, 2023)- Crude oil and fuels draw funds as sentiment shifts (Aug. 7, 2023)- Short-covering by hedge funds lifted oil prices (Aug. 1, 2023)- Depleted U.S. diesel stocks attract hedge funds (July 20, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Guan, Brent, John Kemp, Jan Harvey Organizations: Phillips, Los, Los Angeles Refinery, Funds, ICE, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Los Angeles, Carson , California, U.S

☆ U.S. Steel shares jump after unsolicited bid from Cleveland-Cliffs
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Steel workers at U.S. Steel Granite City Works in Granite City, Illinois, U.S., May 24, 2018. Despite the surge, shares of U.S. Steel were trading well below the offer price at $27.92, indicating some investors believe a deal may not happen at that price. Cleveland-Cliffs shares were down 6.1%. A combination between the two firms will create the largest steel producer in North America and the 10th largest steel producer in the world and will be a dominant supplier to the transportation sector, KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Philip Gibbs said in a note. U.S. Steel said it has invited Cleveland-Cliffs to be a part of the review process.

Persons: Lawrence Bryant, steelmaker, Philip Gibbs, Gibbs, Priyamvada, Reshma George, Arpan Daniel Varghese, Saumyadeb Organizations: U.S . Steel, U.S . Steel Granite City, REUTERS, Steel, KeyBanc Capital, Midwest, AK Steel, U.S, . Steel, Thomson Locations: U.S . Steel Granite, Granite City , Illinois, U.S, Cleveland, North America, China, ArcelorMittal, Bengaluru

☆ Oil hedge funds place their bets on heat-fueled hurricane season
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Gasoline prices usually rise ahead of the U.S. summer driving season. Money managers in the week to Aug. 1 boosted their net long holdings of NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures to the highest since late February 2022. HEDGE FUND-FUELED TURNAROUNDGasoline futures have risen around 14% this year, compared with a roughly 2% rise for U.S. crude futures . To guarantee a profit, they need the rise in gasoline prices to be sustained until hurricane activity is confirmed. But for gasoline to continue its rise against the price of crude oil, there needs to be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, they said.

Persons: Liz Hampton, Tom Kloza, Vincent Elbhar, Eliot Geller, Brent Belote, Cayler, Belote, Arion, Nell Mackenzie, Laura Sanicola, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Liz Hampton LONDON, Gulf Coasts, Silicon Valley, Societe Generale, Reuters, Money, Futures Trading Commission, Reuters Graphics, El, Oil Price Information Service, CTA, Investment, Commodity, Fund, Aspect, CoreCommodity Management, CoreCommodity, Barclays, JP, Cayler, Thomson Locations: Loco Hills, New Mexico, U.S, Russia, Ukraine, Gulf of Mexico, United States, Gulf, Silicon, Gulf Coast, Mexico, Europe, Hurricanes, Washington

REUTERS/Mike Segar/File PhotoLONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices continued to climb as Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend its unilateral production cuts and signs of decelerating inflation and a soft landing in the United States improved sentiment among investors. The total position climbed to 563 million barrels (46th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on Aug. 1, up from just 282 million barrels (5th percentile) on June 27. The most recent week saw a significant number of new bullish long positions initiated (+37 million barrels) as well as former bearish shorts closed out (-14 million). If implemented in full, extra cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia would remove a further 115 million barrels from the market between July and September. In the most recent week, funds were buyers of European gas oil (+20 million barrels), Brent (+19 million), U.S. gasoline (+6 million), U.S. diesel (+4 million) and NYMEX and ICE WTI (+3 million).

Persons: Mike Segar, Brent, John Kemp, Mark Potter Organizations: Bayway, REUTERS, ICE Futures, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Petroleum, Traders, U.S ., ICE, U.S . diesel, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Phillips, Linden , New Jersey, U.S, Saudi, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Ukraine

Most of the buying was in contracts linked to crude oil (+169 million barrels) with a particular emphasis on NYMEX and ICE WTI (+132 million). Short-covering has helped lift front-month WTI futures prices to over $81 per barrel on Aug. 1 from less than $68 on June 27. European gas oil futures and options have experienced an especially rapid increase in positions over the last four weeks (+29 million barrels). As a result, the net position rose to 41 million barrels (44th percentile) on July 25 from just 12 million barrels (18th percentile) on June 27. Related columns:- Depleted U.S. diesel stocks attract hedge funds (July 20, 2023)- Saudi output cut entices funds back into oil market (July 17, 2023)- Extreme pessimism gripped hedge funds on oil (July 3, 2023)- Is oil market’s glass half-full or half-empty?

Persons: Nick Oxford, ⁺, John Kemp Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters Connect, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, ICE Futures, ICE, Fund, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Midland , Texas, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, United States, WTI, Brent, North America, Europe, China

In the most recent week, funds were major buyers of Brent (+48 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (+33 million), European gas oil (+17 million), U.S. gasoline (+12 million) and U.S. diesel (+5 million). Across all six contracts, funds purchased a total of 163 million barrels in the two most recent weeks after Saudi Arabia extended its cut of 1 million barrels per day (b/d) for an extra month. Funds had been buyers in each of the five most recent weeks, purchasing a total of 822 billion cubic feet since June 6. The surplus was little changed from +279 billion cubic feet (+12% or +0.69 standard deviations) on June 6 and was actually up from +44 billion cubic feet (+2% or +0.14 standard deviations) at the end of January. Related columns:- Saudi output cut removes downside risk from oil market (July 12, 2023)- Oil investors less bearish after Saudi output cut extended (July 10, 2023)- U.S. oil and gas production set to turn down later in 2023 (July 5, 2023)- Is oil market’s glass half-full or half-empty?

Persons: Brent, repurchases, John Kemp, Bernadette Baum Organizations: ICE, U.S ., Saudi, Fund, Funds, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Saudi, China, Europe, U.S, Saudi Arabia

Buying was concentrated in crude (+52 million barrels) with purchases of Brent (+25 million) and NYMEX and ICE WTI (+27 million), according to exchange and regulatory records. Elsewhere there were small sales of U.S. gasoline (-3 million barrels) and European gas oil (-4 million) partly offset by purchases of U.S. diesel (+2 million). Russia also pledged to cut production by 0.5 million barrels per day in August to help counter adverse sentiment and boost prices. Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 325 billion cubic feet in the week ending on July 3. The combined position reached a net long of 606 billion cubic feet (45th percentile for all weeks since 2010) up from a net short of 1,201 billion cubic feet (6th percentile) on February 21.

Persons: Brent, John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: ICE, U.S ., Funds, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Saudi Arabia, Brent, Russia, North America, Europe, WTI, Saudi

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 64 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts in the seven days ending June 27. Essentially all the sales were concentrated in crude contracts split evenly between Brent (-31 million barrels) and NYMEX and ICE WTI (-33 million barrels). Fund managers had accumulated 136 million barrels of gross short positions in NYMEX WTI, the most since 2017. The slump in WTI positions is likely being intensified by contract changes which have seen WTI crude grades added to the Brent futures contract. From a positioning perspective, extreme pessimism towards crude prices and lopsided positions are creating potential for an explosive rally in future.

Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Brent, John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, OPEC ⁺, ICE, ICE WTI, Fund, Global, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brent, NYMEX WTI, North America, Europe, China, U.S, Iran, Venezuela, distillates

Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 25 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on June 20. The combined position was 346 million barrels (12th percentile for all weeks since 2013) which was essentially unchanged from 350 million barrels on March 28 after the eruption of the U.S. regional banking crisis. Chartbook: Oil and gas positionsIn the most recent week, funds bought Brent (+16 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (+5 million) and European gas oil (+9 million) but sold U.S. gasoline (-2 million) and U.S. diesel (-4 million). The position in crude (268 million barrels, 8th percentile) is basically unchanged since late March and the position in middle distillates (22 million barrels, 29th percentile) is unchanged since early April. But economic growth is decelerating across North America, Europe and China, dampening expected consumption of oil.

Persons: John Kemp, Mark Potter Organizations: U.S, Brent, ICE, U.S . diesel, Funds, Saudi, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Saudi Arabia, distillates, OPEC, North America, Europe, China, U.S

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 21 million barrels of crude oil options and futures but purchased 18 million barrels of products, including 14 million of distillates, over the week ending on June 13. The biggest rotation has been from U.S. crude to European gas oil, reflecting the rise in crude inventories in the United States while stocks of distillates, used heavily in Europe, remain well below normal around the world. The most recent weekly increase in gas oil positions was the largest for almost two years since August 2021 and before that November 2020. Funds had already built a fairly sizeable position in U.S. diesel and now bullishness is starting to spill over into European gas oil. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 16 million barrels (+4% or +0.28 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average on June 9.

Persons: ”, John Kemp, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: ICE, Funds, diesel, Saudi, Thomson, Reuters Locations: United States, Europe, NYMEX, U.S, Freeport LNG, Saudi

Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 28 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on June 6. Funds bought Brent (+22 million barrels), U.S. diesel (+7 million) and European gas oil (+4 million) but sold NYMEX and ICE WTI (-2 million) and U.S. gasoline (-3 million). Portfolio investors are especially bearish about crude, with a net position of 269 million barrels (7th percentile) and a long-short ratio of 2.39:1 (14th percentile). The hedge fund community has become especially bearish about the outlook for European gas oil given indications the region is already in recession. Funds were net short by 12 million barrels (3rd percentile) with a long-short ratio of 0.73:1 (2nd percentile).

Persons: Saudi Arabia’s, WTI, ”, John Kemp, Alexander Smith Organizations: Investors, Funds, U.S ., ICE, Bloomberg, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Saudi, China, U.S, Riyadh, OPEC, Freeport

LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - Portfolio investors had become increasingly bearish about the outlook for oil prices in the run up to the meeting of the extended OPEC⁺ group of oil exporters on June 3-4. The combined position had been reduced to 296 million barrels (7th percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from 534 million (39th percentile) six weeks earlier. Heavy sales of NYMEX and ICE WTI (-50 million barrels) more than offset significant buying of ICE Brent (+23 million). Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 140 billion cubic feet over the seven days ending on May 30, according to regulatory data. The surplus was essentially unchanged from a surplus of +266 billion cubic feet (+15% or +0.61 standard deviations) in early March.

Persons: ”, John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: OPEC ⁺, ICE, U.S ., Investors, Thomson, Reuters Locations: OPEC, WTI, Saudi Arabia, U.S

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 17 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on May 9. The combined position was cut to just 285 million barrels (6th percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from 534 million barrels (38th percentile) on April 18. Funds sold the equivalent of 37 billion cubic feet over the seven days to May 9, taking total sales over the most recent three weeks to 206 billion cubic feet. The combined position slipped to 120 billion cubic feet net short (28th percentile for all weeks since 2010) down from 87 billion cubic feet net long (35th percentile) on April 18. The surplus was basically unchanged from +256 billion cubic feet (+15% or +0.60 standard deviations) eight weeks earlier on March 5.

As a result, the combined position had been reduced to just 302 million barrels (7th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on May 2 from 534 million barrels (38th percentile) on April 18. The position has essentially returned to where it was on March 21 (289 million barrels, 2.16:1) before OPEC⁺ surprised investors by announcing production cuts on April 2 totalling more than 1 million barrels per day. Chartbook: Oil and gas positionsThe most recent week saw sales across the board in Brent (-69 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-37 million), European gas oil (-24 million), U.S. diesel (-11 million) and U.S. gasoline (-4 million). Fund managers had become especially bearish on middle distillates such as diesel and gas oil, the most exposed to the business cycle. Funds sold the equivalent of 71 billion cubic feet over the seven days ending on May 2, after selling 99 billion cubic feet the week before.

The combined position fell to 447 million barrels (23rd percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from 534 million barrels (38th percentile) seven days earlier. Funds sold the equivalent of 99 billion cubic feet over the seven days ending on April 25, after buying a net total of 1,287 billion cubic feet in the previous eight weeks. The position slipped to 12 billion cubic feet net short (31st percentile for all weeks since 2006) from 87 billion cubic feet net long (34th percentile) a week earlier. Stocks were 280 billion cubic feet (+16% or +0.61 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average on April 21, up from a deficit of 263 billion cubic feet (-8% or -0.98 standard deviations) on Jan. 1. Related columns:- Oil market has absorbed surprise production cut by OPEC⁺ (April 26, 2023)- Oil buying slows amid renewed concerns about economy (April 24, 2023)- Oil prices stall as short-covering rally is completed (April 17, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

The most recent week saw purchases of NYMEX and ICE WTI (+12 million), Brent (+8 million), U.S. gasoline (+2 million) and European gas oil (+1 million) but sales of U.S. diesel (-3 million). But in products, the long-short ratio has increased to only 2.69:1 (40th percentile) from 2.39:1 (38th percentile) on March 21. And in middle distillates, such as gas oil and ultra-low sulphur diesel, the ratio has actually fallen slightly to 1.70:1 (33rd percentile) from 1.78:1 (35th percentile). Even on the crude side, however, the end of the short-covering process has sapped oil prices of some of their upward short-term momentum. U.S. NATURAL GASInvestors are becoming cautiously more bullish on U.S. gas prices, anticipating prices have already dropped so low the balance of risks is tilted strongly towards the upside.

Purchases over the three most recent weeks totalled 225 million barrels, among the largest increases over any three-week period in the last decade. As a result, fund managers held a combined position of 515 million barrels (34th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on April 11, up from just 289 million barrels (6th percentile) on March 21. But the pace of buying slackened noticeably last week as most of the short positions that existed in late March had been closed out. By April 11, total shorts had been reduced to just 125 million barrels (7th percentile) as bearish investors were squeezed out of the market. Fund short positions in NYMEX WTI were reduced to 24 million barrels, the lowest for almost six months, and down from 127 million barrels three weeks earlier.

The buying came as OPEC+ announced cuts totalling more than 1 million barrels per day on April 2 and after fund managers had already purchased 61 million barrels the previous week. Purchases centred on crude, in both Brent (+73 million barrels) and NYMEX and ICE WTI (+60 million barrels), with small sales of European gas oil (-2 million) and U.S. diesel (-3 million) and no change in U.S. gasoline. CRUDE SQUEEZEWith its surprise announcement, OPEC+ successfully squeezed the shorts in crude petroleum, with bearish positions reduced to the lowest for 11 weeks since late January. Since March 21, funds have purchased a total of 174 million barrels of crude, the fastest rate since December 2019 and before that September 2017. Bearish short positions were cut by 113 million barrels while fund managers added 61 million barrels of new bullish long positions.

This marked a sharp turnaround after fund managers sold a total of 281 million barrels over the two preceding weeks, the fastest rate of selling for almost six years. Most of the buying came from the closure of previous bearish short positions (-48 million barrels) rather than initiation of new bullish longs (+13 million). Buying was concentrated in NYMEX and ICE WTI (+49 million barrels), U.S. gasoline (+14 million), U.S. diesel (+5 million) and European gas oil (+1 million) with sales of Brent (-9 million). Short positions in NYMEX and ICE WTI were slashed (-51 million barrels) but no new bullish positions were established and in fact long positions were trimmed marginally (-2 million). U.S. GAS POSITIONSFund managers are becoming less bearish about the outlook for U.S. gas prices following the full re-opening of Freeport LNG’s export terminal.

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 142 million barrels in the six most important contracts in the seven days ending on March 21, after selling 139 million barrels in the week to March 14. Fund managers have slashed their combined position to just 289 million barrels (6th percentile for all weeks since 2013) from 570 million (46th percentile) on March 7. The fund community liquidated 163 million barrels of previous bullish long positions in the two most recent weeks, while establishing 115 million barrels of new bearish short ones. The most recent week saw heavy sales across the board, including Brent (-63 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-48 million), U.S. gasoline (-15 million), U.S. diesel (-6 million) and European gas oil (-10 million). Anticipating the erosion of the surplus, funds have bought the equivalent of 774 billion cubic feet in the last seven weeks.

LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) - Portfolio investors dumped petroleum futures and options at one of the fastest rates on record in the early stages of the banking crisis, as traders anticipated an increased probability of a recession hitting oil consumption. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 139 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts over the seven days ending March 14. Fund managers have sold a total of 148 million barrels since the end of January, taking their combined position to 432 million barrels (20th percentile for all weeks since 2013). In the most recent week, there were heavy sales of Brent (-65 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-59 million), U.S. gasoline (-12 million) and European gas oil (-7 million), with only minor buying of U.S. diesel (+4 million). Related column:- U.S. bank failure places oil prices under pressure (March 13, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

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