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☆ China's demand comeback to help oil weather banking crisis: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Bharat Gautam | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A survey of 45 economists and analysts forecast benchmark Brent crude would average $86.49 a barrel this year, down from February's estimate of $89.23. "The dip in oil prices is more of a blip at the moment, rather than a sustained move below $80 per barrel". Most analysts polled by Reuters expect oil prices to stay below $90 on fears of a recession in developed economies stemming from interest rate increases to bring down inflation. "Oil demand in China should pick up a bit further over the year. Reuters GraphicsAlong with China, prices will also hinge on potentially declining Russian oil production due to Western sanctions, with a combination of the two likely tightening global supplies, analysts said.

Oil prices rebounded as Wall Street posted gains. Earlier, Brent and WTI fell about $3 a barrel to the lowest since December 2021, with WTI sinking below $65 a barrel at one point. After the deal was announced, the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other major central banks pledged to enhance market liquidity and support other banks. "There's a lot of fear-based movement (in oil prices)," Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said. Some executives are calling on the central bank to pause its monetary policy tightening but be ready to resume raising rates later.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude contract for April was down 28 cents at $66.46 before its expiry on Tuesday. "There's a lot of fear-based movement (in oil prices)," Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said. "We're not moving at all on supply and demand fundamentals, we're just moving on the banking concerns." On Monday, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones gained, helping lift oil prices off the day's lows. The group agreed in October to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023.

☆ Oil hits lowest since 2021 on banking fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent and WTI earlier hit lows last registered in December 2021, with WTI sinking below $65 a barrel. After the deal was announced, The U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other major central banks pledged to enhance market liquidity and support other banks. "The market focus is on current banking sector volatility and the potential for further rate hikes by the Fed," said Baden Moore, National Australia Bank's head of commodity research. However, some executives are calling on the central bank to pause its monetary policy tightening for now but be ready to resume raising rates later. The group agreed in October to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023.

The outages have in recent days led to growing concern that French and regional supplies of fuels, in particular diesel, could tighten in the coming weeks. Reuters GraphicsThe profit margin for refining crude oil into diesel has jumped by nearly 40% over the past month. The Ekofisk North Sea crude grade, produced at a field in Norway where TotalEnergies has equity, relies on France for two-thirds of its export stream, Rauball said. Meanwhile, prices for crude grades from Nigeria, one of France's top suppliers, have dropped by around $1/bbl in the past two weeks, traders said. "It's a buyer's market, with WTI and Azeri crude offered way down to sell," a trader of West African crude said.

Brent crude futures were down 76 cents, or 0.9%, to $82.02 per barrel by 11:51 a.m. EDT (1551 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) fell 75 cents, or 1%, to $75.93 a barrel. Fears of contagion from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank led to a sell-off in U.S. assets at the end of last week, while state regulators closed New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O) on Sunday. A weaker greenback makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies and typically supports oil prices. Worries about further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve have been exacerbated by high U.S. crude oil inventories.

India's oil trade, in response to the turmoil of sanctions and the Ukraine war, provides the strongest evidence so far of a shift into other currencies that could prove lasting. MTS had facilitated some Indian oil non-dollar payments, the trade sources said. An Indian refining source said most Russian banks have faced sanctions since the war but Indian customers and Russian suppliers are determined to keep trading Russian oil. "As it is, the government is not asking us to stop buying Russian oil, so we are hopeful that an alternative payment mechanism will be found in case the current system is blocked." Similarly, many banks from Russia have opened accounts with Indian banks to facilitate trade.

☆ Oil steadies after dipping on China outlook; investors await Fed clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies China's growth outlook down from last year's targetFed chair speaks to Congress this weekU.S. February jobs report also in focusHOUSTON, March 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Monday as top oil executives debated supply tightness at an oil conference in Houston. Oil market and logistics are tight and vulnerable to any unexpected supply disruption, as Russian oil is still getting to the market, but at different costs, oil major Chevron Corp (CVX.N) Chief Executive Mike Wirth said at the CERAWeek energy conference. Trading company Gunvor's CEO Torbjorn Tornqvist said crude prices may rise in the second half of the year as Chinese demand returns to the market, adding that the oil market has stabilised. China's closely watched growth outlook, announced on Sunday, was lower than last year's 5.5% target for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. At the same time, oil prices are likely to be affected by increases to interest rates across the world as global central banks tighten policy over fears of rising inflation.

☆ Oil dips on China outlook while investors await Fed clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures were trading down 60 cents, or 0.7%, at $85.23 a barrel by 1520 GMT. "Crude remains in a tug-of-war between optimism over Chinese reopening and nervousness over a hawkish Fed hurting the U.S. economy," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. China's closely watched growth outlook, announced on Sunday, was lower than last year's 5.5% target for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Policy sources had told Reuters the target could be set as high as 6% for 2023. At the same time, oil prices are likely to be affected by increases to interest rates across the world as global central banks tighten policy over fears of rising inflation.

☆ Tighter market to push oil prices above $90 in second half of the year: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Deep Kaushik Vakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude was projected to average $83.94 per barrel in 2023, below previous month's $85.40 forecast. Gruenberger expects a 600,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) year-on-year hit to Russian supply from lower domestic intake, weaker demand and slightly lower exports. "China will continue to scoop up Russian product at a discount," said Robert Yawger, energy futures strategist for Mizuho Bank. Reuters GraphicsThe International Energy Agency sees China accounting for almost half of this year's 2 million bpd growth in global oil demand, which could overtake supply after the first half and push producers to reconsider their output policies. Reporting by Deep Vakil in Bengaluru; Editing by Noah Browning and Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Losses were limited by oil supply concerns after Russia halted exports to Poland via a key pipeline. That positive economic data helped global stock markets to rebound, yet shares remained near six-week lows as investors braced for interest rate hikes in the United States and Europe. Adding to global oil demand worries, rising Sino-U.S. tensions hammered equity markets in China and Hong Kong while investors awaited policy signals from the upcoming National People's Congress. On Monday, Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft said it started pumping oil from Kazakhstan to Germany via Poland through the Druzhba pipeline, while halting deliveries to Poland. Russia announced plans this month to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March versus February, exceeding previously mooted production cuts of 5%.

☆ Oil slips as dollar firms, Russia pipeline halt limits slide
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Meanwhile, Russia halted supplies of oil to Poland via the Druzhba pipeline, Polish refiner PKN Orlen (PKN.WA) said on Saturday, a day after Poland said it had delivered its first Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Russian pipeline operator Transneft blamed the halt on a lack of completed paperwork for supplies for the second half of February. Russia announced plans earlier this month to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March versus February, exceeding its previously mooted production cuts of 5%. "Russian oil output has exceeded expectations in recent months due to lax EU/US sanctions," Bank of America said in a note. Adding some downside pressure, U.S. crude oil inventories surged to the highest level since May 2021 last week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed.

Analysts expect China's oil imports to hit a record high in 2023 to meet increased demand for transportation fuel and as new refineries come on stream. China and India have become major buyers of Russian crude amid Western sanctions on Russian oil and more recently, embargoes and price caps because of the Ukraine war. In India, the world's third-biggest oil importer, crude imports rose to a six-month high in January, government data showed. Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), equating to about 5% of its output, in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products. Prices will move higher "as the market pivots back to deficit with underinvestment, shale constraints and OPEC discipline ensuring supply does not meet demand", they wrote.

Both crude benchmarks settled $2 down on Friday for a decline of about 4% over the week after the United States reported higher crude and gasoline inventories. Analysts expect China's oil imports to hit a record high in 2023 to meet increased demand for transportation fuel and as new refineries come on stream. China and India have become major buyers of Russian crude amid Western sanctions on Russian oil and more recently, embargoes and price caps because of the Ukraine war. Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), equating to about 5% of its output, in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products. Prices will move higher "as the market pivots back to deficit with underinvestment, shale constraints and OPEC discipline ensuring supply does not meet demand", they wrote.

☆ Oil rises on China demand hopes and supply concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday, buoyed by optimism over Chinese demand, continued production curbs by major producers and Russia's plans to rein in supply. Separately Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 bpd, equating to about 5% of its output, in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products. China and India have become major buyers of Russian crude since the European Union embargo. At the same time, future oil supply shortages are likely to drive prices toward $100 a barrel by the end of the year, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a Feb. 19 note. Prices will move higher "as the market pivots back to deficit with underinvestment, shale constraints and OPEC discipline ensuring supply does not meet demand", they wrote.

☆ Resurgent China will drive 2023 oil demand but deficit could loom -IEA
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Feb 15 (Reuters) - China will make up nearly half of this year's oil demand growth after it relaxed its COVID-19 curbs, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, but restrained OPEC+ production could mean a supply deficit in the second half. "Supply from OPEC+ is projected to contract with Russia pressured by sanctions," the Paris-based agency said in its monthly oil report. "World oil supply looks set to exceed demand through the first half of 2023, but the balance could quickly shift to deficit as demand recovers and some Russian output is shut in." International sanctions on Russia aimed at depriving it of funds after it invaded Ukraine have so far had little impact on its oil exports, which in January were down by only 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) from pre-war levels. Reporting by Noah Browning; editing by Jason NeelyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil rises 1% in choppy trade on China demand hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects half of this year's global oil demand growth to come from China, the agency's chief said on Sunday, adding that jet fuel demand was surging. A stronger dollar typically reduces demand for dollar-denominated oil from buyers paying with other currencies. Supply concerns continued to affect markets as operations at Turkey's oil terminal in Ceyhan halted after a major earthquake hit the region. The BTC terminal, which exports Azeri crude oil to international markets, will be closed on Feb. 6-8 while operators assess earthquake damage, a Turkish shipping agent said. However, a preliminary Reuters poll showed that U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose by about 2.2 million last week.

☆ Western tankers ramp up Russian oil shipments under price cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Group of Seven nations (G7), Australia and the 27 European Union countries placed a price limit on Russian crude oil of $60 per barrel on Dec. 5. The cap allows non-EU countries to import seaborne Russian crude oil, but prohibits Western shipping and insurance companies from handling cargoes of the crude unless it is sold at or below that price. Russia has said it will not accept an oil price cap. GREEK RELIEFGreek-owned ships run by Greek management firms handled at least 21 voyages of Russian crude in January to a range of destinations. NGM said its tanker, the Ace, had discharged crude oil in Bulgaria.

☆ Oil falls $2/barrel on economic jitters, U.S. crude stock build
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. economy "still could roll over and some energy traders are still sceptical on how quickly China's crude demand will bounce back this quarter," OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a note. Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed. Crude oil prices in physical markets have started the year with a rally on increased buying from China after the relaxation of pandemic controls and on trader concern that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply. U.S. oilfield services firm Halliburton Co (HAL.N) said its shale oil-well fracking equipment remains fully booked with oil prices driving increased drilling. Investors have also piled back into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate for more than two years as concerns over a global business cycle downturn eased.

☆ Oil dips $2 on global economic concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies U.S. business activity contracts in JanU.S. crude stocks likely to rise - pollOPEC+ panel unlikely to tweak oil policy at Feb. 1 meetingComing up: API inventory data at 2130 GMTHOUSTON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices slipped on Tuesday on concerns about a global economic slowdown and an expected build in U.S. oil inventories. Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed. Yet British private sector economic activity fell at its fastest rate in two years. U.S. oilfield services firm Halliburton Co (HAL.N) said its shale oil-well fracking equipment remains fully booked with oil prices driving increased drilling. Investors have also piled back into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate for more than two years as concerns over a global business cycle downturn eased.

☆ Oil dips $1 on global economic concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies U.S. business activity contracts in JanU.S. crude stocks likely to rise - pollOPEC+ panel unlikely to tweak oil policy at Feb. 1 meetingComing up: API inventory data at 2130 GMTHOUSTON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices dipped on Tuesday on concerns about a global economic slowdown and expected build in U.S. oil inventories. Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed. Crude oil prices in physical markets have started the year with a rally on increased buying from China after the relaxation of pandemic controls and on trader concern that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply. U.S. oilfield services firm Halliburton Co (HAL.N) said its shale oil-well fracking equipment remains fully booked with oil prices driving increased drilling. Investors have also piled back into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate for more than two years as concerns over a global business cycle downturn have eased.

☆ Oil steady as China reopening is balanced by economic concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices were steady on Tuesday as concerns about a global economic slowdown and expected build in U.S. oil inventories were offset by hopes of a fuel demand recovery from top importer China. This week traders are watching for more business data as corporate earnings season gathers momentum, offering clues to the health of economies around the globe. On the inventory side, U.S. stocks of crude oil and gasoline were expected to have risen last week while distillate stocks were forecast to fall, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Goldman Sachs analysts expect commodities such as crude oil, refined petroleum products, LNG, and soybeans to rise on the back of a rebound in Chinese demand. Crude oil prices in physical markets have started the year with a rally on increased buying from China after the relaxation of pandemic controls and on trader concern that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply.

☆ China's COVID-19 reopening set to push 2023 oil demand to new high -IEA
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Two wild cards dominate the 2023 oil market outlook: Russia and China," the Paris-based energy watchdog said in its monthly oil report. "Russian supply slows under the full impact of sanctions (while) China will drive nearly half this global demand growth even as the shape and speed of its reopening remains uncertain." World total oil demandWeak industrial activity and mild weather helped cut oil demand by nearly a million barrels per day in the OECD developed countries in the last quarter of 2022. Demand/supply balance"The preeminent driver of 2023 GDP and oil demand growth will be the timing and pace of China’s post-lockdown recovery," the IEA said. Russia's oil exports increased by just under 5% last year, the IEA said on Wednesday, though prices were far lower.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.29, or 3.1%, to settle at $77.41. Global equities were up on hopes that U.S. inflation and earnings figures due on Thursday will indicate a resilient economy and result in a slower pace of interest rate hikes. Oil demand is coming back and expectations are high that China’s demand is about to skyrocket," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at data and analytics firm OANDA. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 2.2 million-barrel decline in crude stocks, and industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showing a 14.9 million-barrel build. ,EIA this week forecast U.S. crude production will reach all-time highs in 2023 and 2024.

Brent crude was up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $79.80 a barrel by 1:29 p.m. EST (1829 GMT). "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. "The NY Fed data should be supportive for oil prices, as it suggests that inflation is peaking," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures group.

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