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☆ 47% of Americans say achieving retirement security will take a miracle. Why inflation is to blame
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

DusanManic | iStock | Getty ImagesAlmost half of Americans, 47%, say achieving retirement security will take a miracle, according to a new survey from Natixis Investment Managers. The results come as research from the firm shows the U.S. has improved its overall score for retirement security compared to last year, with 71% versus 69% in 2022. The five top countries for retirement security include Norway at No.1, followed by Switzerland, Iceland, Ireland and Luxembourg. Most survey respondents, 84%, say recent economic activity shows inflation is a big threat to their retirement security. Moreover, 58% of retirement savers and retirees say their biggest worry is outliving their money, Cerulli Associates recently found.

Persons: Dave Goodsell, Goodsell, it's, Cerulli, Mary Johnson, Johnson Organizations: iStock, Natixis Investment, Natixis Center, Investor Insight, Northwestern Mutual, Social Security, Senior Citizens League, Getty Locations: U.S, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg

The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro faces a dilemma. "The inflation momentum is simply too strong for the ECB to pause," Danske Bank economist Piet Haines Christiansen said. Just 14 months ago, that rate was languishing at a record low of minus 0.5%, meaning banks had to pay to park their cash securely at the central bank. The euro zone's biggest economy, Germany, is bearing the brunt of an industrial slump and heading for recession, according to several forecasts. On Thursday, the ECB is also expected to cuts its growth projections for this year and next, leading some economists to argue it should hold off from raising rates this month.

Persons: Piet Haines Christiansen, Dirk Schumacher, Catherine Evans Organizations: ECB, European Central Bank, Reuters, Danske Bank, Services, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany

The United States imported nearly $127.5 billion in goods from Vietnam in 2022, compared with $101.9 billion in 2021 and $79.6 billion in 2020, according to US government data. The United States needs a trusted partner for its supply of chips, and Vietnam can do just that, Osius said. But that compares favorably with a global growth forecast of 3%, and is noticeably faster many of the world’s major economies, such as the United States, China and the eurozone. Politically, Vietnam shares many similarities to China in that it is an authoritarian one-party state that tolerates little dissent. Vietnam is an obvious choice, because it’s a cheap alternative to manufacturing in China, said García-Herrero.

Persons: Joe Biden, ”, Donald Trump’s, Nguyen Phu Trong, Biden, Antony Blinken, Evan Vucci, ” Ted Osius, Janet Yellen, Michael Every, Alicia García, Osius, chipmaker, Ho, “ We’re, Natixis, ” Osius, “, — CNN’s Kyle Feldscher, Jeremy Diamond, Kevin Liptak Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, America, Apple, Intel, House, Communist Party of, ASEAN Business Council, CNN, United, Atlantic Council, Rabobank, White House, United State, Monetary Fund, “, Netflix, Boeing Locations: Hong Kong, Vietnam, Washington, Hanoi, China, Asia, India, Communist Party of Vietnam, United States, Hanoi Nguyen Huy Kham, United, Beijing, The California, Ho Chi Minh City, Asia underwhelms

Country Garden also offered on Tuesday to extend repayment of eight onshore bonds worth 10.8 billion yuan ($1.48 billion) by three years, according to people with knowledge of the matter and documents seen by Reuters. Country Garden did not respond to a request for comment. A general view of a construction site of residential buildings by Chinese developer Country Garden in Tianjin, China August 18, 2023. Country Garden has not missed a debt payment obligation, onshore or offshore. "The three-year extension of maturity offered by Country Garden looks better than restructuring plans by most of the other troubled developers," Meng said.

Persons: Gary Ng, Tingshu Wang, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown, DODGE, CreditSights, Ting Meng, Meng, Xie Yu, Shuyan Wang, Jason Xue, Sumeet Chatterjee, Christopher Cushing, Kim Coghill Organizations: HK, Reuters, Country, Natixis Asia Pacific, REUTERS, Services, Global, Hargreaves, Mainland Properties, CSI, ANZ, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, BEIJING, Tianjin, China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Bengaluru

"There is a significant risk in the short term of financial crisis or other degree of economic crisis that would carry very substantial social and political costs for the Chinese government. By the time the global financial crisis hit in 2008-09, it had already met most of its investment needs for its level of development, economists say. To keep growth high, China in the 2010s doubled down on infrastructure and property investment, at the expense of household consumption. China has since backed away from major financial market liberalisation while plans to rein in state behemoths and introduce universal social welfare never quite materialised. "But at the same time there's a great fear of the short-term political and social risk, especially of provoking an economic crisis."

Persons: Xi Jinping's, William Hurst, Chong Hua, there's, Max Zenglein, We're, Logan Wright, Alicia Garcia Herrero, Hurst, Liangping Gao, Kevin Yao, Kripa Jayaram, Marius Zaharia, Sam Holmes Organizations: Development, University of Cambridge, International Monetary Fund, Asia Pacific, China's, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Japan, Beijing, Natixis

Country Garden is China's largest private developer. Country Garden has been in talks with onshore creditors to extend payments on the private bond and has proposed to repay in instalments over three years instead of meeting its obligations by the deadline on Saturday. "Country Garden may be able to extend its debts, but it does not mean the company and property sector are out of the woods unless home sales rebound." On Wednesday, creditors holding 10.5% of the outstanding principal, added a new proposal where they can vote to immediately call the company in default. The company's extension plan for the onshore private bond calls for payments in seven instalments ending in September 2026.

Persons: Matthew Pestronk, Goldman Sachs, Moody's, Kaven Tsang, Gary Ng, Ng, Xie Yu, Clare Jim, Li Gu, Matt Tracy, Sumeet Chatterjee, Anne Marie Roantree, Jacqueline Wong, Kim Coghill, Susan Fenton Organizations: HK, Post, People's Bank of China, Thursday, Asia Pacific, Thomson Locations: China, HONG KONG, SHANGHAI, Beijing, Hong Kong, Philadelphia, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Caa1, Asia, Shanghai

☆ Exclusive: Chinese exporters using currency swaps to retain dollars as yuan sags
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The swaps allow exporters to place their dollars with banks and get yuan instead, but through a contract that will eventually reverse the flows and give them back their dollars. However, while they remove a much-needed source of dollar supplies into spot yuan markets, analysts reckon Chinese monetary authorities can't really force exporters to convert dollars. When exporters swap higher-yielding dollars for the cheaper yuan for even 3 months, they get local currency for business needs and also earn a pick-up of an annualised 3.5% on the swap deal. "By trading FX swaps, exporters can postpone their settlements while meeting their yuan demand," said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. Exporters' swaps, meanwhile, give state banks a pile of dollars to use in their yuan operations, in which they can undertake swaps to acquire the dollars from the onshore forwards market and sell them in the spot market to stem fast yuan declines.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Ding, Gary Ng, Becky Liu, Jindong Zhang, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, Traders, Administration of Foreign Exchange, Standard Chartered Bank, China Merchants Bank, Thomson Locations: Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, U.S, Shanghai, China, Natixis, Singapore

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Historically stormy month of September may test US stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Wall Street entrance to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is seen in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022. In Septembers since 1945, the S&P 500 has declined an average of 0.7%, the worst performance of any month, according to CFRA. Of course, bullish stock investors have largely been rewarded for looking past potential pitfalls this year. "The correction started on the first day of the month, and now it has corrected the conditions that made it vulnerable," Hayes said. Reporting by David Randall; Additional reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jack Janasiewicz, Janasiewicz, Jerome Powell, Sandy Villere, Goldman Sachs, Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Hayes, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reserve, Natixis, Solutions, U.S, Villere, Pfizer, Abbott Laboratories, Investors, Republicans, U.S . House, Goldman, Federal, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Jackson

☆ Market reactions to Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

"It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so," Powell said. "August has been a difficult month for the market, so it is hungry for news that will help reverse the trend. Investors are hanging on to every word, but the main takeaway is that Powell signaled that the Fed would raise rates if needed. Rather than last year's short but brutal speech, Powell opted for a longer and calmer speech. KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CORPAY, TORONTO"On balance, this is a modestly less hawkish speech than markets had feared.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, CHRISTOPHER HODGE, MICHAEL GREEN, ANDRE BAKHOS, CARSTEN BRZESKI, Ann Saphir, Christine, Lagarde, ” JOSEPH LAVORGNA, “, ” STUART COLE, ” QUINCY KROSBY, there's, DAVID WAGNER, Jackson, BRIAN JACOBSEN, patting, KARL SCHAMOTTA, Bernanke, Draghi Organizations: U.S . Federal, Federal, NFP, Fed, ING, Kansas City, REUTERS, CHIEF, CPI, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, JERSEY, FRANKFURT, Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, NIKKO, LONDON, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA, CINCINNATI , OHIO, WISCONSIN, TORONTO

☆ Bounce in European property stocks: false start or turning point?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Danilo Masoni | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

MILAN, Aug 24 (Reuters) - It's hard to be bullish about real estate in an environment of sharply higher interest rates. Two years of steep falls have made European property a short-seller favourite as sector valuations and investor positioning plunged to levels last seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. A gauge of European real estate shares (.SX86P) has halved in value to about $131 billion since 2021, but the mood shifted in July as earnings expectations improved. "Things aren't great for real estate companies and that's why they are trading at a huge discount. Meanwhile, BlackRock's iShares European Property ETF (IPRP.L) has seen a 10% surge in inflows from late February, according to data on its website.

Persons: Gerry Fowler, Zsolt Kohalmi, BlackRock's, Natixis, Banks, Charles de Boissezon, Kohalmi, UBS's Fowler, Danilo Masoni, Sinead Cruise, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: MILAN, European Equity, UBS, European Central Bank, Pictet, Advisors, P Global Market Intelligence, Property, Bank of, Societe Generale, Equity, Thomson Locations: Europe, London, U.S

China cut its one-year benchmark lending rate on Monday, which is set to further weigh on banks' NIM. Chinese commercial banks' NIM shrank sharply to 1.74% last quarter from 1.91% at the end of 2022, official data showed. Shares of China's biggest five banks have been sliding since early May amid concerns over the weakening economy. Debt-laden municipalities represent a major risk to China's economy and financial stability, after years of over-investment in infrastructure and plummeting returns from land sales. Still, there's really no getting around the fact that banks will need to sacrifice profitability to support the economy this year," Beddor added.

Persons: Florence, headwinds, Gary Ng, NIM, Christopher Beddor, there's, Beddor, Ziyi Tang, Ryan Woo, Sumeet Chatterjee, Himani Organizations: Bank of Communications, Fair for Trade, Services, REUTERS, China Construction Bank, Corporate, Investment Banking, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, Bank of Communications Co, Agricultural Bank of China, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING

☆ Strategist discusses what markets are expecting from Jackson Hole symposium
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrategist discusses what markets are expecting from Jackson Hole symposiumMabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis IM, discusses the bond selloff and the outlook for interest rates in the United States ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole meeting.

Persons: Jackson, Chetouane Organizations: Natixis, Federal Locations: United States

"We think the situation is probably getting a little bit worse because of this Country Garden incident," Chan told CNBC in a phone interview Thursday. The debt troubles at Country Garden and the uncertainty of government support are feeding into broader unease in the Chinese housing market. Louise Loo Oxford EconomicsThe Chinese property sector has been reeling since 2020, when Beijing cracked down on the debt levels of mainland property developers. Chan said S&P's bear case for China's property sector is for 11 trillion yuan in sales this year, and 10 trillion yuan for 2024. Land sales divergenceAs China's property sector consolidates amid the debt and credit malaise, state-owned developers are better positioned to grow than non-state ones.

Persons: Edward Chan, Chan, Evergrande, Louise Loo, Global's Chan, That's, China's, Gary Ng Organizations: Future Publishing, CNBC, JPMorgan, Louise Loo Oxford, Oxford Economics, Natixis Corporate, Investment Banking Locations: Chengdong, Hai, City, East China's Jiangsu Province, China, U.S, China's, Beijing

☆ Asian shares weaken slightly on China deflation risk, bank jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

In Asia, the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged 0.2% higher, following a 1.2% tumble a day earlier. Producer prices fell for a 10th consecutive month. "It is not likely to see China entering a full deflation path as core CPI is still resilient and driven by services." "Having said that, if we do not see further improvement in consumer sentiment, it is possible to see growing deflation risks in China." Brent crude futures eased 0.2% to $86.00 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also fell 0.2% to $82.73.

Persons: Issei Kato, Gary Ng, HSI, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Dow, Stella Qiu, Ellen Zhang, Jamie Freed, Edmund Klamann, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, PPI, Asia Pacific, Reuters, Wall, U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, SYDNEY, Italy, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Brazil, Beijing

☆ Reaction to China inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Below are comments from analysts on the inflation data:XING ZHAOPENG, SENIOR CHINA STRATEGIST, ANZ, SHANGHAI"Both CPI and PPI in year-on-year terms fell into negative territory and confirmed economic deflation. "With destocking and credit expansion, we expect PPI and CPI will rebound from the bottom in the fourth quarter. The CPI deflation may put more pressure on the government to consider additional fiscal stimulus to mitigate the challenge." XIA CHUN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, YINTECH INVESTMENT HOLDINGS, HONG KONG"The lower inflation data reflects weak demand on the mainland, which is biggest challenge facing China's economy. It also shows China's slower-than-expected economic rebound is not strong enough to offer the weaker global demand and lift commodity prices."

Persons: XING ZHAOPENG, CHUAN, FRANCES CHEUNG, Rather, ZHIWEI ZHANG, MARCO SUN, XIA CHUN, GARY NG, Liangping Gao, Ellen Zhang, Winni Zhou, Samuel Shen, Li Gu, Sam Holmes Organizations: ANZ, CPI, PPI, OCBC, SHANGHAI, MUFG BANK, ASIA PACIFIC, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, CHINA, SHANGHAI, China, SINGAPORE, HONG KONG, Japan, Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong

☆ China tips into deflation as efforts to stoke recovery falter
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Liangping Gao | Ryan Woo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Customers select tomatoes at a stall inside a morning market in Beijing, China August 9, 2023. The consumer price index (CPI) dropped 0.3% year-on-year in July, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Wednesday, compared with the median estimate for a 0.4% decrease in a Reuters poll. The producer price index (PPI) declined for a 10th consecutive month, down 4.4% and faster than the forecast 4.1% fall. Asian shares were on the defensive on Wednesday as the Chinese price data confirmed its economic recovery was losing steam. Beijing has set a consumer inflation target of around 3% this year, which would be up from 2% recorded in 2022, and for now, authorities are downplaying concerns about deflation.

Persons: Wang, Japan’s “, ”, Gary Ng, Liu Guoqiang, Xia Chun, Tommy Wu, Wu Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, “, Asia Pacific, Natixis, Commerzbank Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, Asia, Brazil, Japan, Hong Kong

☆ Will AI be an economic blessing or curse? History offers clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Backers of AI predict a productivity leap that will generate wealth and improve living standards. The productivity gains it was once lauded for have slowed across many economies. In a globalised economy, there are other reasons to doubt whether the potential gains of AI will be felt evenly. That is just one of several factors that will help determine how AI shapes our economic lives - from antitrust policies that ensure healthy competition among AI suppliers through to re-training of workforces. "The question is: will AI exacerbate existing inequalities or could it actually help us get back to something much fairer?"

Persons: Richard Erkhov, Yiannis, Simon Johnson, Johnson, Daron Acemoglu, jenny, Natixis, Stefano Scarpetta, MIT's Johnson, Mary Towers, Eva Mathews, Mark John, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, MIT Sloan School of Management, McKinsey, Hollywood, Reuters, Labour, Social Affairs, Economic Cooperation, Development, UN, POWER, Britain's Trades Union, OECD, Thomson Locations: Pascal, Nicosia, Cyprus, U.S, American, Paris, Bengaluru

☆ Why China has few good options to boost its faltering economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Fiscal stimulus, for instance, amounted to just a third of the aid offered in the United States, with no nationwide cash handouts. “A comprehensive policy mix — covering monetary and fiscal stimulus, including infrastructure, property, and consumption, alongside structural reforms,” would be helpful to rebuild confidence, they said. It was seen as a success and helped boost Beijing’s domestic and international political standing as well as China’s economic growth, which soared to more than 9% in the second half of 2009. China’s debt woes have only deepened during the Covid-19 pandemic, when three years of draconian restrictions and a real estate downturn drained the coffers of local government. “An infrastructure-led fiscal stimulus would need to be much bigger to have the same economic impact,” she said.

Persons: they’ve, ”, Robert Carnell, Craig Singleton, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, China “, wouldn’t, Zhu Min, Garcia, Xi Jinping, Derek Scissors, Singleton, “ Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, CNN, ING Group, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Manufacturers, Asia Pacific, UBS Global Wealth Management, International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg, American Enterprise Institute Locations: Hong Kong, China, Asia, Pacific, Washington, “, Beijing, United States, China’s, Tianjin

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Inflation report, bond yields in focus as U.S. stocks rally pauses
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Carolina Mandl | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Investors are also closely watching the path of Treasury yields, which rattled equity markets in recent days by rising to fresh year highs. The S&P 500 fell 2.27% this week, its biggest weekly decline since March 10. Janasiewicz of Natixis said a stronger-than-expected consumer price reading next week could spark a decline of up to 5% in the S&P 500. A stronger-than-expected inflation number next week could also boost Treasury yields further. Rising yields on Treasuries, viewed as among the world's safest investments because they are backed by the U.S. government, can dull the allure of stocks.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jack Janasiewicz, Natixis, Aaron Chan, Refinitiv, Tim Murray, Rowe Price, Brent, Ann Miletti, Fitch, Keith Lerner, Lerner, Carolina Mandl, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Natixis Investment, Amazon.com, Cruise, Treasury, U.S ., Advisory, Wall Street, Amazon, Google, Apple, BofA Global Research, JPMorgan, Carolina, Thomson Locations: Wall St, New York, U.S, Stocks, Refinitiv

☆ Analysis-China's stubborn savers risk precipitating liquidity trap
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Winni Zhou | Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

“Based on Japan’s experience in the 1990s, there is the risk that China is entering a liquidity trap due to the risks of balance-sheet recession,” said Natixis’s chief economist for Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and former adviser to the central bank, told a forum in June that China faces a liquidity trap but not a Japan-style deflationary morass. Yet about 180 domestic A-share companies say in their stock filings that they have invested in CDs this year. China’s 220 million retail stock investors, equivalent to Brazil’s population and the biggest drivers of daily moves, have kept to the sidelines this year. “I wouldn’t pour money into the stock market any time before I see a clear rising trend,” he said.

Persons: Florence Lo, ”, Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero, “, Byron Gill, ‘, ” Gill, Betty Wang, Wu, ” Wu, John Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, Asia Pacific, Pacific Opportunities Fund, U.S, Bank, ANZ, Eastroc Beverage, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo’s Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Japan, China, Bank, Shanghai

Analysts see the same lack of confidence in today's Chinese households and companies that Japan grappled with in the 1990s. But in China's case there is a key difference; there is no deflationary threat yet, nor have banks switched off lending. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and former adviser to the central bank, told a forum in June that China faces a liquidity trap but not a Japan-style deflationary morass. China's policymakers have cut rates and encouraged banks to lend more in efforts to revive economic growth after the pandemic. China's 220 million retail stock investors, equivalent to Brazil's population and the biggest drivers of daily moves, have kept to the sidelines this year.

Persons: Florence Lo, Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero, Byron Gill, Gill, Betty Wang, Wu, John, Winni Zhou, Rae Wee, Vidya Ranganathan, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, Asia Pacific, Pacific Opportunities Fund, U.S, Bank, ANZ, Eastroc Beverage, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo's, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Japan, China, Bank, Shanghai, Singapore

Chinese developers are allowed to sell residential projects before completion but are required to put those funds in escrow accounts. Local city governments permit them to withdraw a portion of the funds, depending on the progress of construction. China's housing ministry did not respond to Reuters request for comment on the tightening of developers' access to escrow funds. FALTERING HOUSING DEMANDThe new measures come as property demand is sluggish - China's property sales between May and June showed the largest monthly drop this year, based on sales by floor area, and investment in property also slumped. Under those rules, the authority has asked the bank to make escrow funds available only to developers who have other sources of funding to cover construction costs, said the person.

Persons: Gary Ng, Ng, Clare Jim, Tang, Sumeet Chatterjee, Muralikumar Organizations: Asia Pacific, National Bureau of Statistics, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, BEIJING, Asia, Hunan, Hefei, Xiamen, Hong Kong, Beijing

While an ISM survey offered a tough assessment of U.S. manufacturing conditions, so-called hard data suggest the sector is shuffling along. Federal Reserve data in June showed factory production rebounded in the second quarter, ending two straight quarterly declines. Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending increased solidly last month and May's data was revised higher, boosted by outlays in both single and multifamily housing projects, the Commerce Department said. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Steven Ricchiuto, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Herbert Lash, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, outlays, Commerce Department, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Mizuho Securities USA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, U.S, Natixis Investment, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore

☆ Euro zone inflation falls further in comforting sign for ECB
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, July 31 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation fell further in July and most measures of underlying price growth also eased, in a largely comforting sign for the European Central Bank (ECB) as it considers ending its severe run of interest rate hikes. Consumer prices grew by 5.3% this month versus 5.5% in June, extending a downtrend that started in the autumn. "Services inflation is the area where monetary policy should have the greatest influence because it reflects domestic demand," Dirk Schumacher, an economist at Natixis said. Hawks could also point at hard data about growth, which showed the euro zone returned to growth in the second quarter of 2023 despite negative sentiment and activity polls. The weak survey data has continued to come in in recent days, fuelling talk of a recession in the euro area that the ECB is still hoping to avoid.

Persons: Frederik Ducrozet, Christine Lagarde, Dirk Schumacher, Natixis, Francesco Canepa, Peter Graff Organizations: European Central Bank, Pictet Wealth Management, ECB, Oxford, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT

The move brings the BOJ more into line with other major central banks, which have been aggressively hiking rates to reduce inflation. The MSCI All Country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks shares in nearly 50 countries, rose 0.79% to 705.65 points. U.S. Treasury yields weakened after hitting two-week highs for most maturities the previous session, with yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes down at 3.967% while two-year yields fell to 4.8952%. The yen whipsawed in its most volatile trading session in months following the BOJ's move while the dollar fell against a basket of its major peers. The dollar index fell 0.157%, with the euro up 0.51% to $1.1029.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, It's, Garrett Melson, We're, Melson, Brent, Chibuike Oguh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, of, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Commerce, Investment, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, ECB, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York

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