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Away from the front, Ukraine’s war has become a numbers game: who can acquire, make and resupply more tanks, bullets, and, most of all, artillery shells. All in all, Kyiv needs some 1.5 million artillery shells annually, according to the CEO of one of Europe’s largest arms manufacturers, Rheinmetall. By July, the US had supplied more than two million artillery rounds to Ukraine since the 2022 invasion, the Pentagon said. But in February 2023, Europe-wide production of artillery ammunition had a maximum capacity of 300,000 shells annually, Estonian defense officials estimated. The best-case scenario of an increase to making 2.1 million shells annually is still years away from being realized.
Persons: Oleksandra Ustinova, , Volodymyr Zelensky, Armin Papperger, Papperger, William LaPlante, Diego Herrera Carcedo, Nammo, LaPlante, Tuuli Duneton, Morten Brandtzæg, , ” Brandtzæg, you’re, Jérôme, Creuillot, it’s, Jonathan Caverley, hasn’t, Ignacio Marin, Caverley, Josep Borrell Organizations: CNN, Artillery, Rheinmetall, Pentagon, European, NATO, Defense, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Estonian, US Naval War College, EU Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Estonian, United Kingdom, Europe, Brussels, , Kyiv, , Norway, France
[1/4] UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres speaks during his bilateral meeting with Indonesian President Joko Widodo on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, Thursday, Sept. 7, 2023. In a wide-ranging speech that touched on geopolitical tension, multilateral development finance and climate change, Guterres called on world leaders to find peaceful and inclusive solutions to the challenges facing the world. He also voiced support for re-channelling an additional $100 billion of International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights through multilateral development banks to increase liquidity and support developing economies' needs. At a Paris summit in June this year, world leaders backed a push for multilateral development banks like the World Bank to put more capital at risk to boost lending. ASEAN leaders are set to hold talks with the United Nations later on Thursday.
Persons: General Antonio Guterres, Joko Widodo, Tatan, António Guterres, Rich, Ajay Banga, Guterres, Stanley Widianto, Kanupriya Kapoor, Robert Birsel Organizations: UN, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Monetary, Bank, World Bank, United Nations, Thomson Locations: Jakarta, Indonesia, Rights JAKARTA, China, United States, Paris, Myanmar, ASEAN
GUAYAQUIL, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Ecuador should strengthen controls at its borders and ports to fight drug trafficking and isolate its most violent criminals on prison boats, presidential candidate Daniel Noboa said on Tuesday. Noboa, son of prominent banana businessman and perennial presidential hopeful Alvaro Noboa, was a surprise second-place finisher in the weekend first round of Ecuador's presidential election, winning 23.5% of the vote. "We should reinforce the border, have a military presence at the borders, a military presence at the container ports because that's where the drugs leave from," Noboa told reporters in Guayaquil. Prison boats could take 300 to 400 each of the country's most violent criminals some 80 miles (130 km) out to sea, he said. "It is important to totally isolate the violent criminals, who from prison generate terror and plan more crime," Noboa said.
Persons: Daniel Noboa, Noboa, Alvaro Noboa, Luisa Gonzalez, Rafael Correa, Yury Garcia, Alexandra Valencia, Julia Symmes Cobb, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: Security, Reuters, El, Thomson Locations: GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador, South America, Guayaquil, Quito
Gonzalez, a protege of former President Rafael Correa who has promised to revive his social programs, won 33% support, while Noboa, son of prominent banana businessman and former presidential candidate Alvaro Noboa, was a surprise second-place with 24% of the vote. The contest was darkened by the assassination of anti-corruption candidate Fernando Villavicencio earlier this month. The crime is still under investigation, but Villavicencio, who was replaced as a candidate by his friend and fellow investigative journalist Christian Zurita, came third with 16%. Noboa seemingly gained support after performing well in the only televised debate of the campaign. Reporting by Alexandra Valencia and Julia Symmes Cobb; Editing by Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Luisa Gonzalez, Daniel Noboa, Ecuador's, Gonzalez, Rafael Correa, Noboa, Alvaro Noboa, Fernando Villavicencio, Villavicencio, Christian Zurita, Sharp, Correa, Guillermo Lasso, Alfredo Espinosa, Espinosa, " Espinosa, Villavicencio's, Alexandra Valencia, Julia Symmes Cobb, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Amazon, Thomson Locations: QUITO, Quito, Choco
Six suspects, all Colombians police say belong to criminal gangs, are being held in the murder. Other candidates have reported attacks against them, though in several cases police have said that violence was not directed at the hopefuls themselves. Luisa Gonzalez, a protegee of Correa, led polling before Villavicencio's murder with about 30% of voting intention. Pro-market candidate Otto Sonnenholzner has hardened his discourse since Villavicencio's murder, repeatedly promising that criminals who use violence will be shot by police under his government. "The new president must propose things that are real, not just words," said university student Menaly Luge, 18, who is voting for Villavicencio's Construye party.
Persons: Otto Sonnenholzner, Christian Zurita, Luisa Gonzalez, Fernando Villavicencio, Monica Barba, Rafael Correa, Correa, Daniel Noboa, Alvaro Noboa, Yaku Perez, Villavicencio's, Zurita, Alexandra Valencia, Julia Symmes Cobb, Oliver Griffin, William Mallard Organizations: Law, French Foreign Legion, Thomson Locations: Guayaquil, Ecuador, Quito, QUITO
She was leading voting intention with about 30% in recent polls, though no polls have been published since Villavicencio's killing. The 54-year-old widower has promised to fight crime with better social programs and data-driven security policies. OTTO SONNENHOLZNERSonnenholzner, a 40-year-old businessman and economist, has promoted himself as a young policymaker seeking to bring "peace, money and progress" to Ecuador. JAN TOPICTopic, 40, a private security and telecommunications businessman, has promised security would be his first and most important focus if elected. Already-printed ballots will show Villavicencio's name and photo, but the electoral authority has said votes will be counted for his replacement.
Persons: Yaku Perez, Henry Romero, Guillermo Lasso, Fernando Villavicencio, LUISA GONZALEZ Lawyer Gonzalez, Rafael Correa, Gonzalez, Correa, YAKU PEREZ, Perez, Carlos, Yaku, OTTO SONNENHOLZNER Sonnenholzner, Lenin Moreno, Moreno, Sonnenholzner, El, Nayib Bukele, CHRISTIAN ZURITA Zurita, Zurita, Fernando, Alexandra Valencia, Oliver Griffin, Julia Symmes Cobb, Aurora Ellis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, French Foreign Legion, Central, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Quito, Ecuador, Rights QUITO, Here's, Belgium, Choco, Ukraine, Central American
And with China's post-COVID recovery running into the ground and suffering a deepening real estate bust, western investment curbs throw more sand in the wheels. A question now is whether a retreat of western money from emerging markets at least partly explains both their recent underperformance and that of western government bonds, in which emerging central banks and sovereign funds are heavily invested. The picture has not been much better in aggregate emerging bond indices, even if they have done marginally better than developed world counterparts, and worries over emerging high-yield and property linked bonds are rising. Have global investors high-tailed it from emerging markets already? If western money grows more wary and is increasingly warned off China and other selective emerging investments, will there be a mutual pullback of official emerging money from western bond markets?
Persons: Aly, Joe Biden, Morgan, Biden, crumb, Mike Dolan, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, U.S ., Bank of, Institute for International Finance, Treasury, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Ukraine, Washington, Russia, United States, Beijing, Moscow, Taiwan, Brazil, India, South Africa, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, South Korea
The US dollar has been the world's reserve currency for decades, but its dominance is fading. US monetary policies, the strong USD, and structural shift in the global oil trade also contribute. Here are three other reasons countries around the world are attempting to line up plans to possibly move away from a dollar-dominated world. The arrangement was formalized in 1945 when the oil-giant country Saudi Arabia and the US reached a historic deal wherein Saudi Arabia would sell its oil to America only using the greenback. In return, Saudi Arabia would reinvest excess dollar reserves into US treasuries and companies.
Persons: Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, , Narendra Modi's, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, It's, Donald Trump, wasn't, Joe Biden, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Jamal Khashoggi, Sarah Miller Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Wilson, Reserve Bank of, Indian, Reuters, Allianz, Global, US, Washington Post, Energy Intelligence Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Western, Ukraine, Washington, Brazil, Argentina, Bangladesh, India, France, Reserve Bank of India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, America, Saudi
"There is a huge gap between rates and inflation, but investors still have faith in this policy shift," Peach said. "They will tolerate a gradual tightening cycle if the key rate rises towards 30% at the end of the year." International bonds are still widely held by foreign investors, though much less so the domestic ones exposed to the lira currency's wild swings. BETTER BUFFERSRising central bank reserves are another positive sign. JPMorgan raised its inflation outlook for Turkey after the rate hike, now expecting year-end inflation at 57% versus 50% previously.
Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Nick Eisinger, Liam Peach, Peach, Paul McNamara, Emre Akcakmak, It's, Cagri Kutman, Jorgelina, Karin Strohecker, John Stonestreet Organizations: LONDON, Vanguard, Capital Economics, GAM Investments, Net, East Capital, JPMorgan, United Arab, KNG Securities, Thomson Locations: Turkey, London, United Arab Emirates, Rosario
In interviews with Reuters, some community leaders said they would demand more profits be channeled their way, while others said they would resist any new lithium mining at all. Boric's plan envisions expanding mining with public-private partnerships controlled by a new state lithium company. Both Espindola and Mondaca said a majority of community members oppose expanded lithium mining in the region. It said it takes relationships with Indigenous communities seriously and that is why Boric met with them in person. Yermin Basques, president of Toconao, said he was pushing for the community to receive a greater share of the profits and be a "strategic partner" in the state lithium company.
Persons: Alexander Villegas, Ivan Alvarado, Gabriel Boric, Boric, Francisco Mondaca, SQM, it's, Mondaca, Cristian Espindola, Espindola, Toconao, Albemarle, Alonso Barros, Rolando Humire, Humire, Mauricio Lorca, Adam Jourdan, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: Reuters, National Reserve, REUTERS, Atacama Indigenous Council, BMW, NASA, National, University of Atacama, Thomson Locations: Antofagasta region, Chile, Santiago, Atacama, Albemarle, Los, Chilean, Basques
De-dollarization risks aren't priced in despite rising US dysfunction and tension with China, JPMorgan said. Investors should go underweight on the dollar, as well as US markets, bonds, and financial equities, analysts said. But that also points to the risks that are not yet reflected in financial markets. Meanwhile, economic and political instability within the US will also factor into the credibility of the dollar, JPMorgan added. While "rapid and deep" de-dollarization is unlikely in the next decade, investors should expect partial de-dollarization, with the yuan rising among Chinese partners, strategists predicted.
Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, CBO Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Washington
The US even reminded everyone just how influential the buck is when it effectively froze Russia out of the global financial system with sanctions last year. Becoming the issuer of the global reserve currency is about trust. The US has controlled the global reserve currency for 102 years — giving it a special status in the world economy. Still, given that the country controlling the global reserve currency holds that status of an average of 94 years, history seems to indicate it's high time for a successor. Why shouldn't the financial world resemble something closer to the mosaic of cultures, politics, and nations that exists today?
Persons: Chenzi Xu, there's, Xu, , Ron Temple, Gregory Brew, Eurasia's Brew, dollarizing, Stephen Jen, Jen, we've, Stanford's Xu, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Josh Lipsky, " Lipsky, It's, Alexander Wise, Jan Loeys, Loeys, dollarization, Wise, Lazard's Temple, isn't, Phil Rosen Organizations: Stanford, Federal, European Central Bank, People's Bank of China, Lazard, Publishing, Getty Images, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International Settlements, Eurasia Group, Sandman's, Eurizon, IMF, Atlantic Council, JPMorgan Locations: Russia, Israel, France, China, America, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Bolivia, Iraq, South Africa, Beijing
Singapore's veteran economic policymaker Tharman Shanmugaratnam has signaled his intention to contest upcoming presidential elections in Singapore that must be held by September this year. Singapore's veteran economic policymaker Tharman Shanmugaratnam is planning to run in the upcoming presidential elections in Singapore that must be held by mid-September. The prime minister is the head of government in Singapore. Among his past global appointments, Shanmugaratnam was the first Asian chair of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, the IMF's key policy forum. He was also Singapore's deputy prime minister from 2011 to 2019, and previously served as finance minister and education minister.
Persons: Shanmugaratnam, Lee Hsien Loong, policymaker Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Party, Singapore Prime, Monetary Authority of, Global Commission, United Nations, International Monetary, Financial Locations: Singapore, Monetary Authority of Singapore
ORLANDO, Florida, May 15 (Reuters) - China's yuan faces significant long-term obstacles to becoming a global reserve currency of any great import, but the biggest challenge in the near term is the fact that nobody wants to buy Chinese bonds. Reuters ImageReuters Image"It is very hard to create a reserve currency, without attractive reserve assets. Exante Data's figures show foreign investors bought a net $558 billion of Chinese bonds between 2010 and 2021. But in a pool of $12 trillion global reserves, of which nearly 80% is denominated in dollars and euros, these are very small numbers. Reuters ImageRESERVE STATUSAny currency that has designs on attaining international reserve status must meet several criteria and fulfill several roles.
U.S. consumer prices rose in April, potentially raising the likelihood that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates. Rising global interest rates have weighed on oil prices in recent months, with traders concerned about recession. The surprising U.S. crude inventory build, along with lower crude imports and April's softer export growth in China exacerbated worries about global oil demand. The decline in crude prices was, however, limited by a surge in U.S. gasoline demand ahead of the summer driving season. "We are forecasting that oil prices range from $75-95 during 2023 based on fundamental supply and demand and that oil will rally as we head into the summer driving season," Hatfield said.
The US dollar has dominated global trade and been the leading reserve currency for nearly 80 years. But rival countries – including China and Russia – are trying to change that. But a growing list of countries – including Brazil, China, and Russia – are trying to unseat the greenback. Rival countries China and Russia are spearheading the effort to wean the world off the buck. "There is a lot of inertia in reserve currency status," a team of strategists led by Kamakshya Trivedi said.
Lawmakers should raise the debt ceiling to defend the greenback's reserve currency status, he says. "I think there's some evidence that it does," he told Tennessee Senator Bill Hagerty, who had asked whether China wants the dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency to fade. "There are extremely important privileges, and even in the realm of security [there are] benefits to having the reserve currency," Bernstein added. "One of the most obvious is of course sanctions — if you control the reserve currency, you are able to impose sanctions as we've done on Russia to considerable effect." Read more: The anti-dollar drive spearheaded by Asia has spread to Europe, with France growing sour on the greenback's dominance.
WASHINGTON, April 18 (Reuters) - There was "some evidence" that China wants the dollar to weaken as the international reserve currency, said a White House nominee for a top economist position on Tuesday, and he urged Congress to raise the U.S. debt ceiling to protect the dollar's value. Asked by Republican Senator Bill Haggerty where he stood now, Bernstein said, "I share your view on the importance of the dollar as the dominant reserve currency." He said raising the debt ceiling would help maintain the dollar's reserve currency status and protect its value. The Treasury report criticized China for not publishing foreign exchange intervention and lack of transparency around its exchange-rate mechanism. Weak tax collections in April could mean the U.S. government's deadline to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling will happen sooner than expected, analysts said on Tuesday.
US sanctions on Russia could threaten the dollar's hegemony, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNN. The Chinese yuan is a competitor to the US dollar, amid Beijing's big ambitions for the currency. "There is a risk when we use financial sanctions that are linked to the role of the dollar that over time it could undermine the hegemony of the dollar," Yellen told CNN's Fareed Zakaria in an interview. Of course, it does create a desire on the part of China, of Russia, of Iran to find an alternative," Yelled said. In January, the US dollar dominated global trade, accounting for about 85% of trade finance, according to a February report from global payments system Swift.
But based on Friday's figures, Russia posted a surplus in March of 181 billion roubles, improving on deficits of 821 billion roubles in February and 1.76 trillion roubles in January. Spending accelerated 34% in the quarter to 8.1 trillion roubles, the preliminary data showed. Overall government income was down 20.8% in the quarter compared with 2022 at 5.7 trillion roubles, led by a 45% dive in energy revenues to 1.64 trillion roubles, the data showed. "The large budget deficit...increases nervousness on the market in relation to the price that geopolitical tensions are costing, and requires efforts directed at improving budget revenues," she said. The central bank has repeatedly warned that the budget deficit poses inflationary risks and may compel it to raise interest rates from the current 7.5%.
WASHINGTON, April 5 (Reuters) - Rising geopolitical tensions and the resulting fragmentation of the global economy could increase financial stability risks, reducing cross-border investments, asset prices, payment systems and banks' ability to lend, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday. Such7 stability risks are driven through financial channels, IMF researchers said in the paper, prepared for next week's IMF and World Bank spring meeting as part of the Global Financial Stability Report. The paper cited research using the U.S.-China divergence in UN Security Council voting since 2016 as a proxy for rising geopolitical tension between an investing and a recipient country. Countries also should strengthen regional safety nets, through currency swap lines or precautionary credit lines from international financial institutions such as the IMF. Economies also reliant on external financing should build stronger buffers of international reserves, capital and liquidity buffers at financial institutions, the paper said.
Factbox: The biggest financial crises of the last four decades
  + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Fears of banking contagion remain, and investors are worried that global economies will suffer if the effects of higher interest rates torpedo more lenders. Michael Milken had helped popularize the financial instrument, with many using it as a way of funding leveraged buyouts. The country ended up getting external financial support from the International Monetary Fund and a $50 billion bailout from the United States. GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008The biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression was rooted in risky loans to shaky borrowers, which started to lose value after central banks raised interest rates in the period leading up to the crisis. EUROPEAN DEBT CRISISSpurred by the 2008 financial crisis, surging debt at some of the major European economies led to a loss of confidence in the region's businesses.
BEIJING, March 8 (Reuters) - China needs to improve its use of defence resources such as technology, supply chain and national reserves "to strengthen its army and win wars", President Xi Jinping said on Wednesday. Xi is commander-in-chief of China's armed forces and is due to be formally re-elected as president later this week. "China needs to better use defence science, technology and industry to strengthen its army and win wars," Xi said. He asked national laboratories to accelerate their research in defence technology so that China would not have to rely on foreign countries. Xi did not specify what the "strategic risks", as he put it, were that the military needed to address.
A post-Erdogan Turkey could come in from the cold
  + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
The six-party coalition challenging the ruling AK Party plans to stamp out inflation, which official figures put at 58%. The six-party coalition should probably do this pre-emptively to gain extra economic credibility, though it seems unlikely to do so. These have soared following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, as some Western goods now go to Russia via Turkey. Nathalie Tocci, a former special adviser to two EU foreign policy supremos, shares this view. But it is not too early to think about how to bring Turkey in from the cold if he loses.
Ireland sees inflation averaging 4-5% this year
  + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
DUBLIN, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Irish inflation is expected to average between 4% and 5% across 2023, lower than the 7.1% the finance ministry most recently forecast last September, Finance Minister Michael McGrath said. Annual Irish inflation slowed to 7.8% in January after posting the sharpest monthly decline in seven years. "The good news is that inflation has now peaked, and is falling back," McGrath said in a speech late on Friday, citing a sharp fall in wholesale energy prices. In its last forecasts, the finance ministry saw modified domestic demand - its preferred measure of activity - slipping by 0.6 in the first quarter before expanding by 0.8% from April to June and averaging 1.2% for the year. The government has deposited 6 billion euros ($6.3 billion) in the reserve fund in recent months, setting aside some of its corporate tax receipts that it considers windfall in nature after an enormous rise in recent years.
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