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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNatWest's Girard and TD Securities' Misra break down what to expect from today's Fed policy meetingMichelle Girard, Head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, and Priya Misra, Global Head of Rates Strategy at TD Securities, join Worldwide Exchange to discuss their expectations for the Federal Reserve's November interest rate decision.
chartchartA short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In aggregate, funds' short position of almost 125,000 contracts is the largest since November last year. But it failed to materially reduce the net speculative wager because funds also substantially reduced their long yen position. Ultimately, funds trimmed their net short yen position by only a few thousand contracts following the Sept. 22 intervention. The latest CFTC data shows they evidently felt confident enough to load up on short yen positions again.
But it is unclear how many lenders are tapping the facility and whether pension funds are willing to shell out additional fees for what is a temporary solution, sources told Reuters. Banks are reluctant to increase their lending to LDI funds through the repo facility, according to one official at a European bank. BRIDGING THE GAPLDI is an investment strategy sold by asset managers like BlackRock, Legal & General Investment Management and Insight Investment to pension schemes to help them match their assets and liabilities. Governor Andrew Bailey has rejected calls to continue buying bonds from pension funds which say they still need support beyond Friday. "It's a bridging tool that they can still use to keep the dialogue with the market and the pension funds going."
(A basis point equals 0.01 of a percent) Besides the rate hike, the market is intently focused on the terminal rate. Expectations for the Fed's terminal rate also soared. Before the August CPI report, the futures market was pricing in a terminal rate at just about 4% for next April. In the futures market, "the terminal rate went up 40 basis points in 24 hours," he said. But NatWest Markets expects the Fed could indeed have a terminal rate of 5%.
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