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☆ Oil set to end volatile 2022 with second annual gain
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FILE PHOTO: A view shows Chao Xing tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana MeelCrude surged in March with international benchmark Brent reaching $139.13 a barrel, the highest since 2008, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended global crude flows. U.S. crude was set to rise about 5% in 2022, following last year’s gain of 55%. “So I think oil prices may fall to $60 next year..Oil’s decline in the second half of 2022, largely on rising interest rates to fight inflation, boosted the U.S. dollar. The world’s top oil importer and second biggest consumer in 2022 posted its first drop in oil demand for years.

☆ Oil set to end turbulent 2022 modestly higher
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Florence Tan | Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FILE PHOTO: A view shows Chao Xing tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. Brent looked set to end the year with a 7.6% gain, after jumping 50.2% in 2021. So I think oil prices may fall to $60 next year,” he said. Oil prices cooled quickly in the second half this year as central banks across the world hiked interest rates to fight inflation, boosting the U.S. dollar. Also, China’s zero-COVID restrictions, which were only eased in December, squashed oil demand recovery hopes for the world’s No.

UNMASKINGGlobal oil and energy consumption have been falling since the third quarter under the impact of exceptionally high prices and a slowing economy. But the impact was initially masked by concerns about the planned introduction of the price cap on Russia's crude and refined products exports. Traders anticipated the price cap and Russia's response would cut production by more than the economic slowdown cut consumption. LESSONS FROM 2014The recent slump in oil prices shares some, though not all, characteristics with the slump occurring in the third quarter of 2014 ("A brief history of the oil crash", Reuters, January 2015). It is also probable recent hedge fund liquidation has exaggerated the recent fall in oil prices creating some headroom for a short-term rebound; positions are now unusually low.

But keeping Russian oil on the market and global prices low soon became the bigger priority as oil prices jumped, people familiar with the mechanism's evolution and energy analysts said. Analysts said the cap will have little immediate impact on the oil revenues that Moscow is currently earning. "I really think that the U.S. Treasury's main objective was to defuse the EU embargo," on Russia's oil exports, Cahill said. The official said the price cap is "institutionalizing" current market discounts, arguing that the price cap created them. The $60 price cap level was agreed on Friday after fierce debate.

☆ G7 price cap on Russian oil kicks in, Russia will only sell at market price
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Jan Strupczewski | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The price cap, to be enforced by the G7, the European Union and Australia, comes on top of the EU's embargo on imports of Russian crude by sea and similar pledges by the United States, Canada, Japan and Britain. It allows Russian oil to be shipped to third-party countries using G7 and EU tankers, insurance companies and credit institutions, only if the cargo is bought at or below the price cap. Because the world's key shipping and insurance firms are based in G7 countries, the cap could make it difficult for Moscow to sell its oil for a higher price. Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, said on Sunday it would not accept the cap and would not sell oil that is subject to it, even if it has to cut production. In essence, such a decree would ban the export of oil and petroleum products to countries and companies that apply it.

The G7 and Australia said in a statement the price cap would take effect on Dec. 5 or very soon thereafter. "The Price Cap Coalition may also consider further action to ensure the effectiveness of the price cap," the statement read. The G7 price cap will allow non-EU countries to continue importing seaborne Russian crude oil, but it will prohibit shipping, insurance and re-insurance companies from handling cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold for less than the price cap. Because the most important shipping and insurance firms are based in G7 countries, the price cap would make it very difficult for Moscow to sell its oil for a higher price. The initial G7 proposal last week was for a price cap of $65-$70 per barrel with no adjustment mechanism.

☆ OPEC cuts 2022, 2023 oil demand growth view as economy slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Even after the downgrade, OPEC still expects demand growth to be stronger this year and next than the International Energy Agency, which issues its latest forecasts on Thursday. Next year, OPEC sees oil demand rising by 2.34 million bpd, 360,000 bpd less than previously forecast, to 102.02 million bpd. OPEC cut its 2022 global economic growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.1%, trimmed next year's figure to 2.5% and said there was potential for further weakness. The report showed OPEC output rose by 146,000 bpd to 29.77 million bpd in September, led by Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. Still, the OPEC+ output cut agreed last week runs for all of 2023 and is much larger, at 2 million bpd.

☆ Oil up $2 a barrel from multi-month low on U.S. Gulf supply cuts, softer dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

An aerial view shows oil tanks of Transneft oil pipeline operator at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. "Oil is currently under the influence of financial forces," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. BP and Chevron said on Monday they had shut production at offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Ian approached. read moreThe outages may only provide a momentary reprieve for oil prices, Jim Ritterbusch, of Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note. Iraq's oil minister on Monday said the group was monitoring prices and did not want a sharp increase or a collapse.

☆ Factbox: How much crude oil does the EU still import from Russia?
▼ + stars: | 2022-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Outside the EU, Russia's top crude oil export markets are China, India and Turkey. Some Russian oil will continue to flow into the EU via pipelines as the ban excludes some landlocked refineries. read moreHOW MUCH DOES THE EU DEPEND ON RUSSIAN CRUDE IMPORTS? Russian oil exports by destinationGermany, the Netherlands and Poland were the top importers of Russian oil in Europe last year, but all three have capacity to bring in seaborne crude. Russian crude oil flows, based on loading data in August, rose month-on-month to Italy and the Netherlands, where Russian oil major Lukoil owns refineries, according to the IEA.

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