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☆ Morning Bid: Some payback, but bonds hug gains on oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The oil price slide was helped by signs from Israel that it's open to pauses in the Gaza fighting. The typically hawkish Minneapolis Fed boss Neel Kashkari insisted it was still too early to take another rate hike off the table. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy interest rate again, as expected, by another quarter point to a 12-year high of 4.35%. Overall, the global stocks picture reflected some of the cooling of last week's rally and some of the China export numbers. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, that's, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Jeffrey Schmid, Zimmer, Jack Henry, Akamai, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Minneapolis Fed, International Monetary Fund, Reserve Bank of Australia, Asia bourses, UBS, Credit Suisse, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Michael Barr , New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Horton, Mosaic, Emerson Electric, Occidental, Devon Energy, Products, Chemicals, Gen, Fidelity, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Israel, Gaza, China, Asia, Japan, Hong Kong, Swiss, Canada, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Michael Barr ,, Lorie Logan , Kansas, eBay, Gilead, Occidental Petroleum

☆ Morning Bid: Rates buzz sustained before Fed loan data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields have fallen about 50bps from October's peaks and the drop last week was the biggest recoil since March. For now, S&P500 futures are pointing to further slight gains on Monday - which if realized on the cash market later would make for the sixth straight gain and the longest daily run since June. Undermined by the retreat in Treasury yields, the dollar (.DXY) slipped back to the lowest since Sept 20. The backdrop of an easier dollar and Treasury yields provides significant relief for emerging markets, with MSCI's emerging market stock index (.MSCIEF) hitting its highest since Sept 20 too.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, underscoring, Janet Yellen, Lisa Cook, Huw Pill, Bernadette Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, U.S, Pacific Rim, South, Ryanair, Europe's, Goodyear Tire &, Aspen, Conterra Energy, Constellation Energy, Diamondback Energy, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, NXP Semiconductors, Bank of England, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Gaza, China, Western, San Francisco, South Korean, Asia, Europe, Telesat

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks clocking best week of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. The U.S. October employment report out later on Friday caps a hectic two weeks of central bank decisions, company updates and unnerving geopolitics. As the first major marker of U.S. economic strength in the final quarter of the year, the payrolls report packs a punch despite expected strike-related distortions. The interest rate relief this week is pervasive, however, as the Fed, ECB and BoE all paused tightening and U.S. Treasury debt sales worries ebbed somewhat. U.S. Treasury (.MOVE) and equity market (.BIX) volatility gauges have subsided to their lowest levels since early last month.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, BoE, ebbed, Antony Blinken, Sam Bankman, Fried, Michael Barr, Neel Kashkari, Huw Pill, Emelia Sithole Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike, U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Apple, Fed, ECB, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Labor Department, Eversource Energy, Cardinal Health, Dominion Energy, Gartner, Church, Dwight, AMC, Liberty Media, Icahn Enterprises, Federal, Bank of England, Israel Productivity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Isreal, Gaza, Gaza City, Canada, Minneapolis, Israel

A general view of the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, September 25, 2023. In making that call the BoE report focuses mostly on consumption, which it estimates makes up about 60% of GDP. As a result, the BoE expects the fallout from rate moves to date to "grow over time" even if one-off quarterly hits have peaked. And whatever the slow-burning hit to growth and consumption, inflation surprises could well change the increasingly comfortable markets picture. BOE chart on GDP outlookBOE chart on consumption hit from rate risesReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reutersby Mike Dolan X: @reutersMikeD; editing by David EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Hollie Adams, Huw Pill, what's, BoE, Modupe Adegbembo, Andy Burgess, BOE, Mike Dolan, David Evans Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Bank, Reuters, AXA Investment Managers, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, British

☆ Morning Bid: Fed, financing and jobs greet November
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Despite the U.S. Treasury forecasting a lower fourth-quarter borrowing need than previously flagged, the tension in the bond market remains ahead of its detailed future refinancing plans due later on Wednesday. With the Federal Reserve widely expected to hold policy rates steady again on Wednesday, the Treasury plans may end up getting more bond market attention. But U.S. consumer confidence has softened, oil prices are falling again and the overseas demand picture is weakening. Another heavy day of U.S. corporate earnings is topped by big insurers and the likes of PayPal and Kraft Heinz. On Tuesday, shares in heavy-machinery maker Caterpillar (CAT.N) sank almost 7% as signs of slowing demand overshadowed a quarterly earnings beat.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Masato Kanda, it's, Japan's, China Evergrande, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Kraft Heinz, Estee Lauder, Kraft, Ingersoll Rand, Nick Macfie Organizations: Wednesday's, Bank of Japan, Japan's Nikkei, Japan, U.S, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Treasury, HK, White House, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, Wall, PayPal, Kraft, Caterpillar, Edison, AIG, Prudential Financial, MetLife, Qualcomm, Mckesson, Kraft Heinz, Allstate, Congnizant, Boston Properties, Water, Garmin, CVS, Brands, Humana, Reuters Graphics Reuters, US National Retail Federation, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, United States, China, Hong Kong, San Francisco, Tokyo, Marathon, Boston

And some banks think the Bank of England may be the latest to paper over the QT cracks as soon as this week. Already, there's been some awkward shuffling of feet around a process that was meant to be just balance sheet plumbing. The Federal Reserve may be further away from dealing with the QT issue head on. Deutsche Bank's UK strategists agree and think "the bar for a shift in QT policy is lower heading into yearend." Deutsche argues the BoE could either skew gilt sales shorter or agree to sell evenly based on current market valuations.

Persons: there's, BOE, BoE, BofA, Deutsche, Mike Dolan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal, . Treasury, Bank, Treasury, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, yearend

☆ Morning Bid: Refunding relief stokes bond-led bounce
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 23, 2023. But relief in Treasuries, the villain of the piece for several weeks, is probably the most significant marker for the remainder of the year. And there were further soothing noises for world bonds, even if not for global growth, from surprisingly weak Chinese business surveys for October. Overall, the picture pointed to another positive day for Wall Street stocks, with futures marginally positive ahead of the open as the Fed meeting gets underway. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Hubbell, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of, Federal Reserve, U.S . Treasury, Nikkei, Big Oil, BP, Wall, pharma, Pfizer, Caterpillar, General Motors, United Auto Workers, Detroit Three, Dallas Fed, Federal, AMD, Global, Franklin Resources, Equity, GE Healthcare, WEC Energy, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of Japan, Treasuries, California, Israel, Gaza, Europe, Chicago, Amgen, MSCI, Eaton, Franklin, AMETEK, Echolab

☆ Morning Bid: Market bounce sets up Fed-dominated week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. A worrying late-year stock market unwind is starkest in small-cap indexes (.RUT) now tracking year-to-date losses of some 7% - even as the benchmark S&P500 (.SPX) remains up 7% and Big Tech leaders of the Nasdaq 100 are still 30% (.NDX) higher. Annual earnings growth for S&P500 companies is now expected to have picked up to a 4.3% annual growth rate, according to LSEG estimates, from as low as 1.6% before the reporting season began. But beyond Fed policy rates, it's the restive bond market and near 16-year-high long-term borrowing costs that are starting to hurt most. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields held steady at 4.85% - well below the 5% threshold they breached last week.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, keener, Russell, China Evergrande, Simon Property, Louis, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Tech, Federal Reserve, Detroit's Big, Apple, HSBC HSBA.L, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan, China, HK, Dallas Fed, Western Digital, FMC, Arista Networks, Arch, Semiconductor, Treasury, Reuters, Louis Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, London, Europe, Hong Kong, Loews, St

☆ Morning Bid: Amazon and goldilocks ride to the rescue
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Unlike the reaction to similarly decent results from some of its Big Tech peers this week, shares in the online retail giant Amazon climbed 5% after hours. And both Nasdaq and S&P500 futures were set to bounce into the weekend later after the cash markets closed at their lowest since May. With nominal U.S. growth running at close to 8%, depending on which inflation gauge you use, the heat is impressive. And even the racy headline GDP growth rate was below many assumptions of a 5%-plus print. That bond relief has perhaps flattered the overnight stocks bounce - although on aggregate the earnings season is pretty decent too.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, megacaps, Wang Yi, crumb, Sanofi, TRowe Price, Stanley Black, Decker, CBRE, Christine Lagarde, Jane Merriman Organizations: Chevron Corp, Hess Corp, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Amazon, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Big, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Apple, of Japan, European Central Bank, Britain's NatWest, Financial, Authority, University of Michigan, Colgate, Palmolive, Xcel Energy, Charter Communications, Phillips, Central Bank, European Union Summit, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, China, Syria, Europe, Dallas, Abbvie, LyondellBasell, Brussels

☆ Morning Bid: Haunted by 5% ahead of ECB, GDP and Amazon
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 23, 2023. With Amazon due to report later, there was no respite for the so-called 'Magnificent Seven' Wall St behemoths or the wider market ahead of Thursday's open. The bond market seemed unimpressed even as the U.S. House of Representatives ended a three week hiatus by electing Republican Mike Johnson, a conservative with little leadership experience, as speaker. European stocks (.STOXXE) and the euro dropped sharply, meantime, as regional banking shares were hit ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision later in the day. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:* European Central Bank policy decision and press conference.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Israel, Republican Mike Johnson, Johnson, Joe Biden's, AO, Bunge, Northrop, Wang Yi, Antony Blinken, Emelia Sithole Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Google, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Semiconductor, SOX, Bank of Japan, U.S . House, Republican, United Auto Workers, Ford, European, ECB, Chartered, BNP, Central Bank, Turkish Central Bank, Fed, Intel, UPS, Honeywell, Merck, Comcast, Mastercard, Capital, Energy, Mohawk, Eastman Chemical, Camden Property, AO Smith, Hasbro, Myers Squibb, Boston Scientific, Hershey, Northrop Grumman, Treasury, Foreign, U.S, Brussels Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall, Israel, Gaza, Philadelphia, Bank, Ukraine, China, Kansas, Bristol, Washington, Brussels

☆ Morning Bid: Megacaps scatter in the cloud
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. But after the S&P500 staged an impressive 0.7% bounce on Tuesday, futures were back in the red again ahead of the open. The negativity cut across what was otherwise a more upbeat macro picture and a calmer bond market following recent ructions. Chinese developer Country Garden (2007.HK) is deemed in default on a dollar bond for the first time, Bloomberg News reported. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Alphabet's, Microsoft's, Baker Hughes, Teradyne, Hess, Jerome Powell, Barbara Lewis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Big Tech, Google, Microsoft, Meta, IBM, Boeing, Bloomberg News, Treasury, Bank of Canada, Deutsche Bank, United Health, General Dynamics, Whirlpool, Otis, Hilton, U.S, Reuters, PMI, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, HK, United States, Europe, Worldline, Germany, Ameriprise, EQT, Washington

Speaking at this week's global finance meeting in Riyadh, HSBC boss Noel Quinn warned of a potential "tipping point on fiscal deficits" for a number of countries across the world. And some analysts fear the uncertainty of next year's funding crush is filtering out the steepening yield curve via the term premium. Term premium at highest in 8 yearsReuters GraphicsCBO long-term US debt and deficit projections'DOOM LOOP'? That's spooky enough, until you start to factor in the recent yield spike and or a return of the term premium to 60-year averages of 150 bp. Tipping point or not, there's a danger the market is starting crystallise the problem it fears most.

Persons: Sukree, Noel Quinn, it's, that's, Stephen Jen, Jen, Goldman Sachs, Jeremy Hunt, Mike Dolan Organizations: HSBC, New York Fed, Federal Reserve, Fed, JPMorgan, Treasury, CBO, Moody's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Kasikornbank, Bangkok, Riyadh, U.S, Washington, Europe, Italy

☆ Morning Bid: Big Tech reports as bond yields recoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The two tech giants report after the bell on Tuesday, with Meta (META.O) following on Wednesday and Amazon (AMZN.O) on Thursday. Partly lifted by the year's artificial intelligence craze, the tech behemoths have clearly flattered year-to-date gains of 10% in the overall S&P500. And yet the seemingly endless squeeze in bond markets since midyear has seen megacap indexes (.NYFANG) retreat some 12% from their highs for the year. The upshot of the whole picture is to give U.S. stock futures a lift ahead of the open on Tuesday - with Asia and European bourses in positive territory too as bond markets stabilised. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields held about 4.83% - some 19 basis points below Monday's peak at 5.02%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Bill Ackman, Clark, Chubb, Paccar, Centene, Sherwin, Williams, Archer, David Evans Organizations: NVIDIA Corp, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Big Tech, Microsoft, Meta, Treasuries, U.S, Bank of England, Treasury, Britain's FTSE, Barclays, P Global, Richmond Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Texas Instruments, Verizon, General Electric, NextEra Energy, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Halliburton, Dow, Waste Management, Daniels, Midland, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, United States, Asia, European, Britain's, Philadelphia, Danaher, Fiserv, Kimberly, Spotify, Dover, Nucor

☆ Morning Bid: Markets juggle 5% yields and 150 yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 11, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanPartly unwinding pre-weekend safety hedges related to the Middle East conflict, world markets are back focused on some critical macro priced levels and milestones that may once again define the week. The dollar retained its bid as a result and continued to probe the 150 yen level many suspect the Bank of Japan will be keen to protect against with open-market yen buying. But even these megacaps are still in thrall to the worrying squeeze in U.S. bond markets and the breach of the 5% threshold on 10-year tenors on Monday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, thrall, that's, That's, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Maria Corina Machado, Hess, Berkley, Brown, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Industrial, China, Goldman, Microsoft, Meta, Federal Reserve, Economy, Banco BBVA Argentina, Peronist, Massa, Venezuelan, Chevron, Exxon, Natural Resources, Brown, Cadence, Packaging Corp of America, Fed, Bank of Israel, Trade Organization, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, China, Taiwan, outflows, 50bps, York, America, Venezuela, Geneva

The 40-year bond bull market - a slow-inflating bubble like any other to some people - has crashed. Bank of America chart on survey of global funds' bond positioningBond Multiverse Returns Flip Positive2008... OR 2000? Of course, bond bubbles and bursts - at least for top-rated sovereigns - are not same as their equity counterparts, even if the short-term performance of bond funds seems to ape them. But for bond funds praying for a shorter-term price performance pickup, the situation looks nervier. With such an ephemeral variable at work, picking a durable turn in the battered bond market may prove fiendishly difficult.

Persons: Jason Lee, That's, Fed's, Olivier Davanne, midyear, Davanne, Mike Dolan Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, Treasury, U.S, Bank of America's, Federal Reserve, of America, Bloomberg, Invest, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Paris

☆ Morning Bid: Bond squeeze abates as Middle East war in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A street sign for Wall Street hangs in front of the New York Stock Exchange May 8, 2013. Dallas Fed cheif Lorie Logan added overnight that recent data and bond yield moves gave the central bank space. Reactions in the market were curious, however, with implied Fed policy rates in the futures market and two-year Treasury yields easing back even as 10-year yields chomped at the 5% bit. The resulting further disinversion of the yield curve to show the gap between two and 10-year yields at its lowest in a year is some testament to that. But with another nervous weekend around the Israel-Gaza war ahead, when markets are closed or illiquid, Friday trading has shifted the focus back to short-term safety hedges.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Lorie Logan, Huntington, Loretta Mester, Patrick Harker, Joe Biden, Charles Michel, Ursula von der Leyen, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Atlanta Federal, Dallas Fed, Bank of Japan, L'Oreal, American Express, Interpublic, Schlumberger, Cleveland Federal, Philadelphia Fed, European Council, European Commission Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Israel, Gaza, Europe, China, Comerica, Huntington Bancshares, Washington

☆ Morning Bid: To 5% and beyond, bond yields soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The company earnings picture, meantime, was mixed to sour over the past 24 hours in both the U.S. and Europe. Despite decent demand at a typically awkward 20-year bond auction on Wednesday, yields continued to spiral higher overnight and ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's key speech later on Thursday. The upshot of all factors has seen Treasury yields climb ever higher through the night - with two-year and 20-year yields , now both above 5.25%, the latter at a record high and the former the highest since 2006. Ten and five-year tenors also saw yields soar to within a hair's breadth of 5% early on Thursday too. The ructions in the bond market and incoming earnings saw Wall St indexes (.SPX), (.NDX) hit their lowest in 10 days on Wednesday and futures were in the red again ahead of the open today.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Republican Jim Jordan, Blackstone, Philip Morris, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Patrick Harker, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, U.S, Netflix, Republican, Bank of Japan, Mortgage Bankers Association, HK, Fifth Third Bancorp, Philip Morris , Union Pacific, CSX, Truist Financial, American Airlines, Alaska Air, Philadelphia Fed, U.S . Federal, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, Housing, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Washington, Venezuela, Europe, Frankfurt, Freeport, McMoRan, China

☆ Morning Bid: US growth topping China as megacaps report
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A street sign for Wall Street hangs in front of the New York Stock Exchange May 8, 2013. The combination of high-pressure growth and U.S. crude oil prices back up to their highest in two weeks has re-ignited inflation concerns. And with a 20-year Treasury bond auction also due later in the day, bond markets are back running scared. Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest since 2006 on Tuesday at 5.24% and held most of those gains overnight - while 20-year yields are hovering around 5.2% as well. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, Joe Biden's, megacaps Tesla, Jerome Powell, China's, Republican Jim Jordan, Morgan Stanley, Kinder Morgan, Elevance, Joe Biden, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, John Williams, Patrick Harker, Toby Chopra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Atlanta, Netflix, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Treasury, Bank of England's, Wall St, Republican, Procter, Gamble, Abbott Laboratories, Northern Trust, Nasdaq, Citizens Financial, US Bancorp, Zions Bancorp, Discover, Lam Research, Alcoa, Steel Dynamics, Federal, New York Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Graphics Retail, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Gaza, Israel, trepidation, United States, Britain, Wall, Stocks, Asia, Europe, Northern, POPG, Equifax

Based on International Monetary Fund data on comparative international investment positions through the early part of this year, U.S. portfolio investment overseas - equity, fund shares and debt securities - stood at more than $14.5 trillion. US funds shy of overseas equityUS economic growth roaring at more than 5%US expensive for a reason? The upshot could be an ever wider U.S. deficit on its net international investment position - potentially lifting the dollar as that inflates, but leaving it vulnerable to the yawning gap and foreign investor sentiment down the road. IMF chart on US net international investment deficitUS stocks lead the packThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for ReutersEditing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, that's, it's, Julius Baer's, Yves Bonzon, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Atlanta Federal, Monetary, ICI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Gaza, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Washington, Taiwan, United States, Swiss, Switzerland, Germany

☆ Morning Bid: Banks, Biden visit buoy markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Biden leaves later on Tuesday for a high stakes visit to Israel and Jordan and Washington said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to let humanitarian aid reach besieged Gazans. That reversed a pre-weekend 'safety bid' that emerged amid fears an Israeli ground invasion into Gaza could draw other regional countries and groups into the war. Before then, bond markets will have to negotiate tomorrow's 20-year Treasury auction. The relatively new 20-year tenor has often proved unpopular and will be watched closely after a poor reception for the latest 30-year bond last week.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Joe Biden's, Biden, Washington, Benjamin Netanyahu, Wells, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Jerome Powell's, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Lockheed Martin, Johnson, JB Hunt, Michelle Bowman, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Tom Barkin, Luis de Guindos, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Federal Reserve, HK, Bank of England, Lockheed, United Airlines, Michelle Bowman , New York Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Richmond Fed, European Central Bank, European Union, Luxembourg Retail, Reuters Graphics Reuters, EIA, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Jordan, Israeli, Gazans, Asia, Europe, Wells Fargo, China, Russian, Beijing, Ukraine, United, Canada, Michelle Bowman , New, Frankfurt, Luxembourg, Venezuela

☆ Morning Bid: MidEast tension keeps markets on edge
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 11, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAlthough price moves remain contained in the absence of a dramatic weekend escalation, world markets are still on edge as Middle East tension builds without obvious resolution. Disputed reports of a temporary ceasefire in southern Gaza partly stabilised jittery macro prices first thing on Monday. Yet the extent to which the backup in oil prices over recent months can impact wider economic sentiment was clear from the University of Michigan's household survey on Friday. That appeared to be the case last week as oil prices, gold, the dollar and Treasuries gained into the close while stocks fell back.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Israel, Treasuries, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, Poland's, Patrick Harker, Christine Lagarde, Fabio Panetta, Mike Dolan, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, University of Michigan's, U.S, Treasury, Wall, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Netflix, Federal Reserve, European Union ., York Fed, Bank of Canada, Philadelphia Federal, European Central Bank, ECB, Global, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, Wells Fargo, Luxembourg, LSEG, CHINA

Israeli assets and the shekel remain under pressure and oil and gold prices are marginally higher than last week. World Markets Impact From MidEast Attacks WanesBlackRock chart on its Geopolitical Risk IndicatorNOWHERE TO RUN TO... Last updated shortly before the weekend events in Israel, BlackRock's Geopolitical Risk Indicator - which attempts to capture market attention to political risks - had indeed crept up to six month highs. Releasing its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund warned that more volatile commodity prices were a possible reflection of both greater climate and geopolitical risk. And yet hand wringing about geopolitical risk in different corners of the globe can also deflect from rising political risks in core economies - not the least in the United States.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Vincent Mortier, Anna Rosenberg, Kristina Hooper reckons, Hooper, that's, It's, Amundi's Rosenberg, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, West Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Iran, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Taiwan, Ukraine

☆ Morning Bid: 'Remarkable' US markets surf crosscurrents
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Stock futures are higher once again ahead of the bell today. As cash Treasury markets returned from Monday's Columbus Day holiday to a week of heavy long-term debt auctions, they were also greeted with rekindled optimism about the Federal Reserve's policy rate trajectory. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields are set to kick off Tuesday's U.S. trading day at some 4.65% - almost a quarter of a percentage point below the peak set just after Friday's blowout September jobs report. Elsewhere, PepsiCo (PEP.O) edged 0.8% higher ahead of the beverage maker's third-quarter results and Unity (U.N) jumped 6.4% after the video-game software maker said its CEO John Riccitiello would retire.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Lorie Logan, Logan, Philip Jefferson chimed, John Riccitiello, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Columbus, Federal, Dallas Fed, Treasury, Monetary Fund, IMF, World Bank, Fund, HK, Bloomberg, Alibaba, Baidu, PepsiCo, Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Atlanta Fed, PepsiCo NFIB Consumer, Reuters Messaging, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Marrakesh, China, Beijing, Minneapolis, San

☆ Morning Bid: Oil up but restrained on Mideast jolt
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. U.S. crude oil prices rose about 3% higher on Monday as Israel retaliated for Saturday's shock attack by the Islamist group Hamas. With concern about a spillover over the long-running conflict to the wider stage, oil and other traditional global 'safety' plays caught a bid. What's more, any direct connection to Iran's possible involvement would scupper any easing of sanctions there and affect an estimated 3% of world oil supply. A sustained oil price rise from here could aggravate the inflation picture the Fed is negotiating - but could also drag on growth too.

Persons: Nick Oxford, Mike Dolan, Israel, What's, Friday's, Jaime Gilinski, Michael Barr, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Midland , Texas U.S, REUTERS, Hamas, Saudi, White, Street, Tehran, Treasury, U.S, Columbus Day, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Stock, Tel, Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve, Metro Bank, Metro, Columbus, Federal, NYSE, World Bank, IMF, Dallas Fed, Bank of England, United, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Midland , Texas, U.S, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Saudi, Russia, Tel Aviv, Europe, Marrakesh, Morocco, United States

Re-enter risk premia on what should be 'risk free' bonds. The renewed corporate profits upswing riffs off this relatively robust nominal growth picture too - as do still benign corporate debt premia. However, keeping a lid on 5% nominal GDP may well be what's irking bonds as much as anything. While turning 10-year averages takes some time, nominal GDP growth according to a real time model from the Atlanta Fed is closer to 8% right now. CBO deficit projections to 2030US nominal GDP growth running at 8%?

Persons: York Fed's, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, today's, Treasuries, Fitch, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, The, Barclays, Societe Generale's, Atlanta Fed, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, York, 35bp, 150bp, Treasuries, China, Europe

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