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☆ We expect the Fed to pause rate hikes at the June meeting: Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect the Fed to pause rate hikes at the June meeting: Goldman SachsDavid Mericle of Goldman Sachs says "that seems like a reasonable place for them to be."

☆ Here's what to expect from today's Federal Reserve announcement
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on March 22, 2023. None of those figures are satisfactory for Fed officials. "Most Fed officials don't seem comfortable that the rate hike cycle is over," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note. The next Fed policy meeting comes in six weeks, on June 13-14, and April's consumer price report is due in one week, on May 10. This Fed meeting is crucial."

☆ Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman rings the recession alarm and says commercial real estate is next in the crosshairs of global banking turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Leon Cooperman says the commercial real estate sector will be the next market hit by bank turmoil. In an interview with CNBC, the billionaire investor said institutions are pulling back on lending and commercial real estate commitments as a way to shore up liquidity. "I think it will spread into commercial real estate as banks become more reluctant to lend," Cooperman said Monday. The commercial real estate market is operating in a perfect storm of rising interest rates, declining occupancy rates for offices, and now, less access to credit. This could impact smaller and medium-sized banks with higher commercial real estate exposure.

☆ Wall Street sees the Fed starting to signal toward a recession ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Wall Street consensus after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluded Wednesday was equally cautious. "We took the broad signals from this meeting as lifting perceptions of recession risks within the Fed," wrote Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. "Powell noted that recent events will certainly not reduce recession risks, even if how much they heighten those risks remains uncertain." The risk from rates Worries remain that more Fed rate hikes will exacerbate banking problems by creating more duration risk. "We expect the FOMC to hike another 25bp in May, bringing the funds rate target range to 5.00-5.25%," wrote Barclays chief U.S. economist Marc Giannoni.

That would come after the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday to follow through with a 50 basis point rise it pre-announced in February, prioritizing sticky inflation. Only five respondents in the latest Fed poll expected a pause, including four primary dealers, with only one bank, Nomura, expecting a 25 basis point cut. "The past week's financial turmoil will give the Fed some misgivings about pushing rates much higher," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. Mericle expects more hikes however, with a peak rate of 5.25%-5.50% in Q3, higher than the poll median. Meanwhile the labor market is showing few signs of weakness, with unemployment rate forecasts broadly lower compared with last month's poll.

☆ Goldman Sachs cuts GDP forecast because of stress on small banks, which are key to U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Photo illustration, the Silicon Valley Bank logo is visible on a smartphone, with the stock market index in the background on the personal computer on March 14, 2023, in Rome, Italy. Goldman Sachs on Wednesday lowered its 2023 economic growth forecast, citing a pullback in lending from small- and medium-sized banks amid turmoil in the broader financial system. "Small and medium-sized banks play an important role in the US economy," the analysts wrote. "Any lending impact is likely to be concentrated in a subset of small and medium-sized banks." The analysts assume that small banks with a low share of FDIC-covered deposits will reduce new lending by 40% and that other small banks will reduce new lending by 15%, leading to a 2.5% drag on total bank lending.

☆ At least two more Fed rate hikes and no cut this year, say economists: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

All 37 who replied to an extra question said the bigger risk was the fed funds rate would peak even higher. That means the Fed is going to keep the policy rate at high levels for quite a bit longer." One-third, or 18 of those 54 economists, predicted the fed funds rate would peak at 4.75%-5.00% and hold there through the remainder of the year. The unemployment rate, currently at the lowest since 1969, was expected to climb to 4.8% in Q1 2024, by which time most economists were expecting at least one rate cut. Asked which was more likely to compel a rate cut, 21 of 35 economists said a significant fall in inflation, with 14 saying a significant rise in unemployment.

☆ Major central banks set to signal interest rate glide path in crucial week for monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A screen displays the Fed rate announcement as a trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), November 2, 2022. Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England are all expected to hike interest rates once again this week, as they make their first policy announcements of 2023. Economists will be watching policymakers' rhetoric closely for clues on the path of future rate hikes this year, as the three major central banks try to engineer a soft landing for their respective economies without allowing inflation to regain momentum. The market is now pricing in this eventuality, but the key question is what the FOMC will indicate about further rate hikes in 2023. "Fewer hikes might be needed if the recent weakening in business confidence captured by the survey data depresses hiring and investment more than we think, substituting for additional rate hikes," Mericle said.

Moderating inflation and a strong labor market may mean that no recession will come in 2023. At the same time, the US labor market has looked at the possibility of a recession and essentially shrugged. Although the US saw higher gains in the first few months of 2022, the job growth in December still shows the labor market is hot. "Today's inflation numbers are good news, good news about our economy," President Joe Biden said during Thursday remarks. Regardless, the labor market will continue to cool, and the unemployment rate will still rise — which will be uncomfortable, Zandi said, but not a recession.

☆ Here's how the U.S. economy could escape a recession in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

The U.S. economy heads into 2023 facing what might be the most anticipated recession in history. That basically means some parts of the economy will feel like they're in a recession while others won't. "Some areas of the economy may not feel like they actually are in recession. "For certain parts of the economy, it will feel like a very deep recession. For other parts, it will feel like a healthy growth economy, particularly in the parts of the economy where we see strong demand," she said.

☆ Goldman Sachs: The Fed's rate hikes are a move in the right direction
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs: The Fed's rate hikes are a move in the right directionDavid Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the impact of the Fed's rate hikes and fiscal tightening on inflation in the U.S.

☆ Goldman Sachs sees path to a soft landing for the economy getting clearer
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

There may be a path to a soft landing after all. "So far, slowing growth and rebalancing the labor market is going better than expected," Goldman economist Joseph Briggs wrote in a separate note. "Industry-level data strongly suggests that the path to a soft landing assumed in our baseline economic forecast is possible." "Case studies on the retail trade and accommodation and food services industries strongly suggest that the path to a soft landing assumed in our baseline economic forecast is possible," Briggs wrote. Even with those imbalances, though, he said progress overall "generally supports the prospects of a soft landing."

☆ 'Bring the pain': Major banks raise forecasts for rate hikes after Fed's stern actions
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Goldman Sachs The call : A 75 basis point move in November, 50 basis points in December and 25 basis points in February, for a peak of 4.5%-4.75%, up half a percentage point from the previous expectation. Citigroup The call : November to see 75 basis points, followed by 50 in December and 25 in February, adding a cumulative 25 basis points for a terminal rate of 4.5%-4.75%. Both calls were 25 basis points higher than previous. One more 25 basis point hike in February, followed by a 50 basis point cut "in the latter portion of the year." UBS The call : 75 basis points in November, another 50 in December, with three 25 basis point cuts later in 2023.

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