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Infrastructure heavyweight Adani Group’s market crisis is coming at an inconvenient time: just as India aims to bulk up its infrastructure to position itself as a manufacturing alternative to China. Adani Group companies’ plunging dollar bonds won’t derail those plans. But they could force some project delays and hamper India’s bid to establish itself in emerging industries. On Wednesday, French oil major TotalEnergies said it would wait for the result of an independent audit before proceeding with a planned $4 billion collaboration with Adani Group on green hydrogen.
World Trade Weakens, but Maersk Will Float On
  + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
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India Embraces Budgetary Caution—And Infrastructure
  + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman expressed confidence that the budget gap could fall to 4.5% by fiscal year 2026. New Delhi fought off its populist impulses and clawed back some fiscal space this week, announcing a relatively conservative federal budget. Falling spending on subsidies should give a large assist—but realizing the country’s big infrastructure push will still be a lift. That would be particularly true if public markets continue shunning infrastructure heavyweight Adani Group.
Adani Group’s Moment of Truth
  + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Global investors, who largely funded Adani Group ’s rising debt in recent years, are shunning its bonds after an attack from a New York-based short seller. Regaining markets’ confidence—or finding new private funding—will be essential to avoid problems as the Indian conglomerate’s dollar bonds start coming due. After a brief rally following Adani Enterprises’ successful completion of a new share offer on Tuesday in India, prices of many of the group’s dollar bonds—including issues from Adani Ports and Adani Green maturing in 2024—continued their slide on Wednesday. Adani Enterprises, whose shares are now at half of the offer price on the new issue, on Wednesday evening in India said it was canceling the sale and would return the proceeds to investors.
News about Adani appeared on a sign at the Bombay Stock Exchange, where shares of the group’s companies have plunged. The sprawling conglomerate built by Gautam Adani is under attack by short seller Hindenburg Research , which successfully deflated electric-vehicle maker Nikola Motors in 2020. Adani Group denies the allegations and says the short seller is trying to smear its reputation and derail a public stock offering. Shares of the group’s companies have plunged since Hindenburg’s report, wiping out nearly $64 billion in market value. Hindenburg’s report comes amid a $2.5 billion secondary share sale by Adani Enterprises that closes on Tuesday.
India’s Reliance Industries Deserves More Patience
  + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Reliance Industries , India’s most valuable company, is undergoing a transformation—its fourth this century. Chairman Mukesh Ambani probably deserves more shareholder love than he is getting right now. Delayed gratification is always a tough sell. Despite high interest rates, Reliance secured board approval last week to raise as much as 200 billion Indian rupees, equivalent to $2.5 billion, to pay short-term debt maturities and double down on its 5G cellular rollout, new energy ventures and to expand its retail business.
Google’s Big India Opportunity Faces a Challenge
  + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
India wants to tame big tech’s dominance and it has its antitrust sights on Google. The giant company will be a tough nut to crack. Last week, Google lost an appeal in India’s Supreme Court to block an antitrust order that requires it to make significant changes to the way its Android operating system does business with smartphone makers, app developers and users. It strikes at the company’s core business model for Android and may force the technology giant to alter its approach in its largest market.
Liquefied Natural Gas Will Have a Less Frenzied 2023
  + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Last year was the year of liquefied natural gas. Russia’s decision to curtail pipeline gas supplies to Europe sent prices through the roof and threatened to push Europe into recession. The panic-induced price spike of 2022 probably won’t recur this year—but betting on lower prices would also be unwise. LNG prices have slid after a much milder than expected winter in Europe. Asian LNG spot prices have fallen nearly 67% from the record highs reached in August last year.
Copper prices will benefit from new demand from clean-energy applications over the next few years. Commodities bulls have left the pen, ready for a long run. Odds are that 2023 will end with industrial-metal prices, at least, higher than they are now. Three-month copper futures are trading at $9,100 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, already up 9% in 2023 according to FactSet. And iron-ore prices rallied by almost 50% from early November to the end of 2022, according to CEIC, a data company.
Initial public offerings from Indian startups have remained largely in the deep freeze for the past 12 months. A Sequoia Capital-backed beauty and personal-care-products startup is now hoping to break the curse. At the tail end of 2022, the parent of Indian personal-care-products startup Mamaearth—Honasa Consumer Ltd.—filed for an initial public offering. The company plans to issue new shares worth 4 billion Indian rupees ($49 million) and sell 46.8 million existing shares. Investors including Sofina, Stellaris Venture Partners and Fireside Ventures would sell part of their stakes while Sequoia would stay put.
China’s Belt and Road Plan Is Down, Not Out
  + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The Belt and Road Initiative—China’s gargantuan overseas infrastructure push which began gaining steam in the mid 2010s—has been the subject of some belt tightening recently. It is too early to write it off entirely. The BRI’s retrenchment during the pandemic has been remarkable in Asia—where much of the funding was initially committed. It is however still expanding its footprint rapidly in Latin America, at least in foreign-direct investment terms. And even in some trouble spots such as Pakistan, Beijing is unlikely to abandon its megaprojects, given how much it has already invested.
India’s Face-Off With Big Tech Will Intensify in 2023
  + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The standoff between India and U.S. tech giants will intensify in 2023 as New Delhi cooks up its own regulatory medicine for the world’s second most populous internet market—an unusual concoction of Europe’s strict antitrust approach and Chinese-style government surveillance. Three significant pieces of legislation likely to pass in 2023 will harden positions on both sides.
Shipping Companies Face More Dangerous Shoals
  + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Container spot rates started to slip early this year and their descent accelerated in the second half. The last two years featured supply-chain disruptions, limited shipping capacity and remarkably high container rates. But 2023 will be rather different—and not in a good way, at least from the perspective of the world’s shipping giants. Container spot rates started to slip in early 2022 and their descent accelerated in the second half of the year. The World Container Index compiled by London-based Drewry Shipping Consultants is down 77% so far this year.
Apple’s Best Bet Against China Might Be India
  + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The potential of India’s own consumer market makes it even more attractive for electronics manufacturers. India could well become the manufacturing darling of Apple this decade. But New Delhi also deserves credit for a concerted push to make India an easier—and financially more attractive—place to build gadgets. Many Western manufacturers are increasingly uncomfortable with their heavy reliance on China—especially after its uncompromising and unpredictable approach to public health over the past year. Violent protests at Apple supplier Foxconn ‘s Zhengzhou factory in November further highlighted the risks of an overly concentrated supply chain.
India’s Tech Funding Winter Will Be Deep and Long
  + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
India’s tech funding winter is stretching into 2023, despite a bright long-term outlook for the country’s stock markets. Indian stock markets have been testing new highs recently. The good cheer, however, largely hasn’t extended to the tech sector. In fact, while the long-term outlook remains bright, the toughest stretch of this down cycle for India’s ambitious young tech startups may be yet to come.
Coal’s Spark Flickers, but It Is Still Burning
  + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
An energy-starved world is expected to depend on coal to plug gaps in its fuel supply for several years to come. Thermal coal is losing some of its heat. But it would be a mistake to expect coal prices to fall back down to pre-Ukraine war levels anytime soon. For better or worse, an energy-starved world will be depending heavily on coal to plug gaps in its fuel supply for several years to come.
Coal’s Spark Flickers but It Is Still Burning
  + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
An energy-starved world is expected to depend on coal to plug gaps in its fuel supply for several years to come. Thermal coal is losing some of its heat. But it would be a mistake to expect coal prices to fall back down to pre-Ukraine war levels anytime soon. For better or worse, an energy-starved world will be depending heavily on coal to plug gaps in its fuel supply for several years to come.
Copper and Aluminum Bulls are Running Too Fast
  + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Aluminum prices are up about a fifth from their late September lows. The cliché is that when China sneezes, commodities catch a cold. Logically, then, when it’s feeling better the commodity complex should too: Industrial metals like copper, aluminum and iron ore have staged an impressive rally recently as signs that China is preparing to reopen become more obvious. This time, however, there are a few wrinkles that should give investors pause: especially the still-dire state of the nation’s housing market, which constitutes the single largest source of global demand for metals like iron ore.
India’s Outlook Is Surprisingly Bright
  + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The Reserve Bank of India has leeway to rein in inflation. India’s central bank has further tightening to do, but the economy looks as though it can handle it. Stock investors, too, should consider taking a look: The South Asian country is well placed to handle a global slowdown next year, as long as rebounding global oil prices don’t play the spoiler.
A long-pending privacy bill, released for public consultation in November, would need the approval of the Indian parliament before becoming law. There isn’t much the Indian government and Meta Platforms see eye to eye on. And yet earlier this week, the U.S. social-media giant’s president of global affairs called a reworked draft of the country’s data-protection bill a promising turn of events. The fourth iteration of the long-pending privacy bill, released for public consultation in November, solves some big problems: Previously mooted versions had alarmed tech companies by proposing to treat social-media platforms as publishers, regulate the use of non-personal information such as traffic data, and bar companies from processing critical personal data outside India.
Amazon Is Signaling its India Fatigue
  + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
In September 2014, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos stood atop a truck in Bengaluru, dressed in traditional attire, flashing a $2 billion check: a brash demonstration of the American giant’s ambitions in India. Less than a decade later, with many more billions invested and Indian regulators increasingly taking a dim view of U.S. big tech, Amazon might be losing patience with the South Asian nation. Over the last week, Amazon has said it would close three ventures in India: food delivery, its education tech business and a wholesale e-commerce website. Closing these small subsidiaries doesn’t at first glance look like a major defeat. But the exit from wholesale e-commerce is important: It means that for now at least, Amazon is conceding to Walmart-backed Flipkart and Reliance in “kirana-tech.”
Singapore’s Sea Is Passing Through the Storm
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Sea Ltd. shares could see some further upside as it accelerates its path to profitability and if it succeeds in reversing its cash burn. It might just be possible to get U.S. investors to pile back into tech stocks if companies were to brutally cut costs and give priority to profits over everything else. Case in point: Singapore’s Sea Ltd. The Asian consumer internet company’s beaten-down shares surfed a wave of enthusiasm on Tuesday after it narrowed losses substantially during the third quarter, defying market expectations. They surged 36% in New York trading after having been down 87% from their 52-week high.
To Compete With China, India Might Need to Open Up to It
  + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
India doesn’t see eye to eye with China on several issues, especially ones related to their border. But the South Asian nation might be coming to realize that to become an electronics manufacturing hub, it may need the support of its sometimes hostile neighbor. Earlier this month, the National Council of Applied Economic Research, or NCAER, a think tank, prepared a report for industry body the Confederation of Indian Industry that recommended that India soften rules on allowing investment from China if it wants to reach the state’s lofty goal of becoming a $300 billion industry by the financial year ending in March 2026.
Paytm’s Earnings Penance Delivers a Little Hope
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Paytm reported quarterly results that are considered relatively encouraging, with revenue surging 76%. Indian fintech giant Paytm delivered impressive earnings numbers this week as it hobbles its way toward profitability. Unfortunately for its investors, that brave performance had little impact on the stock. A sustainable rebound for shares of Paytm, which raised about $2.5 billion in India’s largest initial public offering last November, awaits good news on the regulatory front—and probably a global sea change in investor sentiment toward tech firms, too.
How India Plans to Reinvent E-Commerce
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
India launched an open network for digital commerce as it seeks to offer small retailers an alternative to e-commerce platforms such as Amazon. India wants to create a new sort of public utility: an Amazon killer. Success—or even a decent attempt—would represent an existential threat to the expansion plans of U.S. Big Tech abroad. It could also be a model for other developing nations that want to leverage the potential of e-commerce, digital payments and other online services without handing the keys to a few big technology giants.
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