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Bank of America says that the start of earnings season will be a critical stock-picking period. Strategist Savita Subramanian says a recession is coming, and earnings projections will get slashed. Subramanian identified companies that BofA expects to beat expectations again this quarter. "With the SVB collapse in March, data started to notably slow," Subramanian wrote. She also wrote that right now, Wall Street earnings projections for 2023 and 2024 look unrealistic if a recession is on the way.
While she's cautious on stocks, Malik says some struggling areas could be ready for a comeback. Nuveen, the asset management unit of financial planner TIAA, believes that even as a recession approaches, some of the market's recent losers are almost ready for a comeback. "Certain equity sectors that were among the hardest hit by rising rates over the past year may now be poised to benefit," Malik wrote. "We think better opportunities exist by taking on credit risk rather than duration risk," she said. "We see value across credit sectors, especially in high yield and loans, and would emphasize that we generally favor relatively higher quality segments within individual credit sectors."
Evercore says that concerns about inflation and financial stability will still drive stocks. Inflation continues to fade, which means it's much more likely that the Fed's rate hiking campaign is coming to an end. Emanuel says investors should apply that strategy using both the S&P 500 and QQQ, the popular ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 index. So, in essence, his advice is that investors should position for the index to give up its gains, and buy support that would protect them at the 3,800 level. The idea is that investors can protect themselves against the S&P 500 falling through the 3,800 and 3,575 levels with puts.
Morningstar's chief US market strategist says stocks will stay choppy over the next few quarters. But Dave Sekera also says patient investors can position themselves for future success. "According to our valuations, investors appear best positioned in a barbell-shaped portfolio by being overweight value and growth and underweight core." For now, Sekera wrote, stocks are likely to stay inside their recent trading range, with positive and negative economic news dictating their course. The 10 stocks below are ranked from lowest to highest based on the upside Morningstar believes they have relative to their fair value.
In late 2021 Matthew Tuttle launched a fund that bets against the ARK Innovation ETF. A month ago he started a new ETF that shorts stocks picked by Jim Cramer of "Mad Money." Tuttle, the CEO and investment chief of Tuttle Capital Management, is starting to get a lot of requests for "anti"-ETFs. When shorting big name investors makes senseIt's easy to assume Tuttle is motivated by personal or professional dislike for Wood and Cramer. While he's considered creating an anti-fintwit ETF, Tuttle is still positive on Fintwit itself.
RBC's collection of 30 favorite global stocks handily outperformed US stocks in the first quarter. In the first quarter, that list of 30 stocks delivered an 11.9% total return, compared to a 7.7% return for the MSCI World Index and 7% for the S&P 500. The group also notes that since the end of 2020, the top 30 stocks have returned 37.8%, while the MSCI index has returned 24.5%. The following 30 stocks are ranked from lowest to highest based on how much RBC thinks they will deliver in returns over the next year. All of those implied upside figures were calculated based on the stocks' most recent closing prices.
Some experts think they will kickstart a new bull market in stocks. He says investors should be cautious and de-emphasize tech stocks until the market finds a new low. "Bank stocks are leading indicators, and we would be hard pressed to find a new bull market where they were underperforming," as they are now, he wrote. The right time to invest more heavily in tech stocks will be after a clear long-term low has been established. "We see little evidence that a new bull market has begun and believe the bear still has unfinished business."
Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates pioneered "smart beta" investing, which has gone global. Arnott and his firm say they've created a better way to index stocks than market cap weighting. Indexes have become the stock market's North Star, as passive investing turned into a global investment trend over the last decade. Meanwhile, Research Affiliates itself has grown to advise on $141 billion in wealth by the end of 2022. Arnott and his team at Research Affiliates suggest looking at the economic footprint of companies instead of their market capitalization.
UBS Strategist Keith Parker says high-dividend stocks usually beat the market during tough times. He made a list of high-upside stocks that have the room for sustained dividend growth through 2025. "Dividend stocks can provide a margin of safety during uncertain times. Dividend stocks outperformed the market by 4.5% during the 2001, 2008, 2020 recessions," Parker wrote. The 30 stocks below are ranked from lowest to highest based on their upside to UBS' price targets.
He says that companies with strong balance sheets and a lot of non-US revenue will outperform. But DeSanctis wrote that given the broader context, investors are more likely to reward companies with strong balance sheets. "With HY spreads widening and staying wide, weaker balance sheet companies should lag behind, especially given their cost of capital has likely risen. Companies with weaker balance sheets also perform poorly heading into an economic slowdown," he wrote. "We looked for lower risk, higher overseas revenue, clean balance sheets, came up with a dozen Buy-rated ideas," he wrote.
UBS, the world's largest asset manager, downgraded stocks and says they have little upside now. The firm says investors shouldn't sit on the sidelines, especially in the bond market. UBS advised investors on what to buy in stocks, bonds, currencies, and alternative assets. "The bond market is pricing for a recession to start as soon as the summer," Haefele wrote, while oil prices and credit spreads also reflect substantial recession risk. Speaking of stocks, Haefele doesn't like what he sees.
RBC says that AI is one of the most transformative developments in tech in the last 20 years. The firm's tech analysts explained which stocks they think will benefit the most from generative AI. They added that in many cases, the "rising tide" of AI will benefit broad swaths of the market. But it's not just the established tech titans that can profit from the advent of AI technology. Those companies are below, along with their tickers and commentary about each provided by the RBC analysts.
Co-manager James Davolos told Insider about the fund's approach to identifying market mistakes. Half the fund's money is in one stock, and Davolos explained why he's not hurrying to change that. Davolos and his team then investigate those areas and try to identify any mistakes the market has made about the quality of an investment. "Nobody at the firm follows a sector per se, or a geography, or a capitalization," Davolos told Insider in a recent interview. Texas Pacific doesn't have to pay for equipment or fund that work; it simply makes money from the drillers.
Hirtle also discussed how he's investing clients' money and his long-term market views. Hirtle told Insider that the bank failures of 2023 are very different from what he saw in 1987, or in 2008. So Hirtle says he is concentrating on the long term, and that he prefers the US to other regions. Still, he says that global diversification, and diversification across stocks, bonds, and private equity is important for the long term. In the 2010s bull market, stocks rose about 400% in a little under 11 years.
Stocks have risen as investors conclude that authorities will prevent a bank crisis from spreading. He says that tighter credit conditions and the economy will weaken, and stocks look expensive. While bank stocks are still down, the rest of the market is collectively higher since the crisis started. But even if that's true, Morgan Stanley says investors are far too optimistic right now. In short, Wilson wrote that investors who see conditions in markets right now as positive for stocks, especially for tech, are making a mistake.
David Kostin of Goldman Sachs explains how to trade this moment and get ready for what's next. "We believe the sector has upside potential if economic growth remains healthy." "Falling bond yields have provided a boost to long-duration growth and other rate-sensitive stocks," Kostin said. But he sees a lose-lose scenario for growth stocks, especially those that aren't profitable. "If economic growth proves resilient, it will likely lead to higher yields, posing a headwind to long duration cash flows of unprofitable growth stocks," he said.
The firm has picked the stocks it thinks will win — and lose — as customers cut their spending. Bank of America thinks a recession is coming, despite the fact that the US economy is still holding up fairly well right now. "We see risks to higher-end exposed US stocks this year, in part due to an amplified wealth effect," Hall wrote. Hall thinks those could include winter clothing maker Canada Goose, home goods retailer Bed Bath & Beyond, electronics retailer Best Buy, and consumer products companies like Clorox and Kimberly-Clark. But the following 22 companies all have "Buy" ratings from Bank of America, and Hall expects them to benefit from the oncoming economic slump as high-earners cut back on spending.
The Fed needs to stop raising interest rates now, says David Kelly of JPMorgan Asset Management. Step one: don't hike interest rates any more. "You just pause on interest rates and you say that we're making good progress on inflation," he said. "What you need to do in the long run is have a very steady level of interest rates," he said. He explained that interest rates do a bad job controlling demand and end up creating bubbles and economic problems.
Nancy Davis specializes in interest rate volatility and has called several market meltdowns. Enter Nancy Davis, who specializes in the concept of interest rate volatility, and established her reputation by predicting two different market blowups in 2018. Quadratic's Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF has attracted more than $800 million in assets. Interest rate volatility is something most people are short on in their portfolios." Her firm's IVOL ETF gives investors exposure to interest rate volatility, and they can also use options to bet on it.
She says there is a great deal of opportunity for investors who focus on company fundamentals. When investors find something that works for a long time, it only makes sense that they're going to stick with it. "We've all been trained to ignore fundamentals and just pay attention to Fed speak, central banks, and then also pay attention to what quants are doing to extend any momentum." She suggested that a lot of investors think that sooner or later, conditions will revert back to where they were before the pandemic, leaving a low-interest rate, low-inflation, low-growth environment. "There is a tremendous opportunity for fundamental investors, the few that are left," she said.
Investors are fleeing bank stocks after the quick failure of Silicon Valley lender SVB Financial. Goldman Sachs is pointing traders to the highest-growth stocks in the new-look financial sector. US financial stocks were walloped this week after the back-to-back failures of Silicon Valley startup lender SVB Financial and crypto lender Silvergate. The stock fell 60% in a day. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index fell 7.7% Thursday, its worst single-day loss in almost three years.
Savita Subramanian says investors need to update their approaches as the economy slows down. Bank of America's US stock chief told Insider she's very wary of tech stocks and long-term bonds. In a recent interview with Insider, however, Subramanian pushed back on the idea that she's a bear. She's telling investors to overweight materials, energy, consumer staples, and financials in their stock portfolios. Stocks have outperformed bonds dramatically since that last high, and investors might start dumping bonds if they're disappointed by their returns again.
Experts at BofA and UBS recently wrote about their approaches for investing in the theme. Tech analyst Dan Ives doubled his price target on AI pure play C3.AI, which has soared almost 150%. One of the market's splashiest artificial intelligence newcomers is here to stay, says Wedbush tech stock analyst Dan Ives. On Friday Ives boosted his price target on AI software company C3.AI from $13 per share all the way to $24. "The company continues to experience increased demand for its AI solutions that are designed to increase a range of applications across industries fueling tailwinds in the market," Ives wrote.
The firm suggests buying companies with strong balance sheets and those with strong overseas sales. buy-rated stocks that tend to rise as the dollar falls. One of the surprising elements of the surprising rally in stocks in 2023 is that cheap stocks with relatively shaky balance sheets are doing great. Jefferies SMID Cap Strategist Steven DeSanctis says that those less-expensive stocks and indebted stocks can't outperform forever. The correlations are all negative, meaning that the stocks and the dollar consistently move in opposite direction.
Leuthold Group CIO Doug Ramsey says the "irrational" stock market rally could continue. Ramsey says that when economic indicators hit a low point, it's generally very good for stocks. It might not make a lot of sense that stocks have jumped in 2023 even as recession concerns have risen and interest rates have climbed to 15-year highs, notes Doug Ramsey, investment chief at Leuthold Group. Ramsey concedes that the moves are "irrational," but that doesn't mean there is no reason to be optimistic about stocks. He notes that a closely watched measurement of economic activity, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, is in a downturn.
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