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☆ Indian rupee set to weaken further in coming months: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, April 5 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, will fall further in the coming months and is expected to drift back to trade around where it is now in 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists. Median forecasts from 40 respondents to a March 31-April 4 Reuters poll showed the rupee trading at 82.40/dollar by the end of the month and 82.55/dollar by the end of June. However, a fifth of respondents forecast the currency will change hands at 82.90/dollar or weaker as early as next month. A strong majority of poll respondents who answered an additional question, 13 of 16, said risks to their forecast were skewed towards the rupee being even weaker over the next month. "A key driver of the Indian rupee will continue to be the RBI's FX intervention strategy," noted Lin Li, head of global markets research Asia at MUFG.

ORLANDO, Florida, April 5 (Reuters) - When U.S. government bonds become the epicenter of global market volatility, investors' room for taking on additional risk shrinks, sucking the oxygen out of their risk budget. The shock blindsided speculative investors who had been positioned for higher U.S. interest rates and yields. The full extent of the turmoil - hedge funds were among those who got crushed - will become clearer as first-quarter readouts emerge. A pension fund's tolerance for risk, and therefore its VaR, will be lower than a hedge fund's. "When you plug a two-year Treasury into any risk model now using past returns models, expected risk will be higher going forward," van Vliet said.

☆ Emerging market investors turn increasingly bullish for Q2 -HSBC survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Nearly half of emerging market investors are bullish on prospects for developing markets in the second quarter, a survey by HSBC showed on Thursday, thanks to rising optimism following the reopening of the Chinese economy. More than two thirds of the respondents expected emerging currencies to beat those of developed markets in the same period. "Asia has seen the largest improvement in sentiment, largely reflecting the expectations of a strong rebound of Chinese economic activity," said Murat Ulgen, Global Head of Emerging Markets Research at HSBC. The overall tally of investors bullish about prospects for emerging market assets rose to 47% from 29% in the previous survey in December. The poll was conducted before the recent financial market turmoil following the sudden failures of two U.S. lenders and an emergency sale of embattled Swiss banking behemoth Credit Suisse (CSGN.S).

Thailand's economy is expected to continue growing while headline inflation should decline and return to a target range of 1% to 3% late in the year, the central bank said. Any further rate hikes would be gradual and measured, it said, but added it stood ready to adjust them as needed. "The committee deems that a continuing gradual policy normalisation is an appropriate course for monetary policy consistent with the growth and inflation outlook," the BOT said in a statement. It added it expected "increased risks from demand-side inflationary pressures due to the economic recovery". China's reopening is expected to further boost Thailand's tourism, with the government predicting at least five million Chinese visitors this year, about half of the 2019 figure.

☆ International ETFs are surging to start 2023, but investors should brace for volatility
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"'We believe Asian markets are well positioned vs. developed markets as we expect China re-opening to be a key driver, which would benefit even Asia ex China markets," McCarthy wrote. Broadening that out even further, emerging markets in general are a favorite of many investment strategists. But emerging markets can be tricky for investors, and volatile. Another way for investors to play a recovery in emerging markets, with more dispersed currency and political risk, could be sector funds tied to commodities. "I can buy ETFs that have exposure to say BHP, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Glencore," Sohn said.

☆ Russian rouble slips again as volatile year-end trade continues
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The rouble lost about 8% against the dollar last week and is on course for a hefty monthly decline after an oil embargo and price cap came into force. At 0705 GMT, the rouble was 1.1% weaker against the dollar at 71.19 , moving in the direction of the almost eight-month low of 72.6325 struck last week. It lost 0.5% to trade at 75.37 versus the euro and shed 1.4% against the yuan to 10.12 . Brent crude oil , a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was down 0.7% at $83.7 a barrel. For Russian equities guide seeFor Russian treasury bonds seeReporting by Alexander Marrow; Additional reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/2] Banknotes of Chinese yuan and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 29, 2022. Yet the euro was flat against the dollar at $1.048, after falling 0.2% in the previous session. In Asia, China's yuan firmed as the government announced measures that marked a sharp change to its tough, three-year-old zero-COVID policy that has battered its economy and sparked historic protests. "Anticipation of further easing of measures in China should continue to favour RMB (and) RMB-linked assets." "China's reopening will be bumpy in coming months and economic data will likely get worse before it gets better."

☆ Europe’s Energy Risks Go Beyond Gas
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Mira Rojanasakul | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +14 min

In terawatt hours of energy per month Gas Coal 80 80 60 60 2022 40 40 20 20 Previous years since 2015 Jan. Dec. Jan. Dec. In terawatt hours of energy per month Wind Solar 60 60 40 40 2022 20 20 Previous years since 2015 Jan. Dec. Jan. Dec. In terawatt hours of energy per month Gas Coal 80 80 60 60 2022 40 40 20 20 Previous years since 2015 Jan. Dec. Jan. Dec. In terawatt hours of energy per month Wind Solar 60 60 40 40 2022 20 20 Jan. Dec. Jan. Dec. In terawatt hours of energy per month Gas Coal 80 60 2022 40 20 Previous years since 2015 Jan. Dec. Jan. Dec.

☆ This startup just hired a former DoorDash exec to bring robotic restaurant delivery to the masses
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Nancy Luna | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

When it comes to amassing a large food-delivery footprint, the startup has hired a ringer in the delivery sector — the former DoorDash executive Prahar Shah. Serve's robots have the potential to be ubiquitous in our everyday lives, he said. This is "very similar to part of the playbook that we ran at DoorDash," Shah said. Most of Serve's restaurant partnerships have been with local restaurants in Los Angeles, such as Bossa Nova and Lala's Grill. As he approaches restaurant chains in his new role, he said most understand the necessity of automation.

☆ Japan foreign reserves fall for third month after intervention
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Japan's foreign reserves fell for a third consecutive month to $1.19 trillion as at the end of October, still the world's second-largest after China, the ministry said. The currency intervention and rising foreign bond yields more than offset other factors that would support reserves, such as higher valuations of other foreign assets and income gains from foreign bond holdings, officials said. Of the reserves, foreign bonds fell the most in September and suffered the second-largest drop last month to $941 billion. Separate data on intervention, which includes quarterly and daily totals, confirmed that authorities did not conduct stealth intervention in September, having spent 2.8 trillion yen that month to support the yen. Japan spent a record 6.35 trillion yen on intervention last month as the yen hit a 32-year low near 152 yen to the dollar.

☆ Gold Fields sticks to its Yamana Gold offer after counter-bid
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Helen Reid | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A small toy figure and gold imitation are seen in front of the Gold Fields logo in this illustration taken November 19, 2021. Gold Fields' decision reflects "commitment to capital discipline" and to fairness for shareholders in Gold Fields and Yamana, the South Africa-listed miner said on Monday. Gold Fields shares fell by 20% when it announced the all-stock deal in May, denting the deal's appeal for Yamana shareholders. The Agnico/Pan American offer would only become effective if Yamana shareholders vote against Gold Fields' offer on Nov. 21. The counter-bid for Yamana shows gold miners are keen for new assets to supplement dwindling gold reserves and ensure their long-term growth, but Gold Fields' decision not to raise its bid is a sign of fears about overpaying.

☆ Turkey's President Erdogan is emerging as a power player in Ukraine after brokering an abrupt reversal by Russia
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Kit Gillet | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has become a key bridge between Russia and Ukraine. He was critical in efforts Wednesday to get Russia to abandon a threat to block grain exports. When Russia backed down earlier this week over its threats to block grain shipments out of Ukraine, it was Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who was among the first to break the news. Speaking to Turkey's parliament, Erdogan said Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu had informed his Turkish counterpart that the deal would resume shortly. As Russia grows more isolated, both diplomatically and economically, Turkey's role is becoming increasingly important.

Moscow suspended its participation in the Black Sea deal on Saturday, in response to what it called a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Russian-annexed Crimea. That relative calm is likely to end when Chicago and Paris wheat, the world's two most-active wheat futures contracts, start their trading week on Monday. Purchasing of grain for Black Sea ports in Ukraine has stopped following Russia's decision, a Ukrainian broker said. Ukraine's infrastructure ministry said on Sunday 218 vessels were "effectively blocked" by Russia's decision to suspend its participation in the grain export deal. Market participants are watching to see if the corridor deal can be salvaged, as the U.N. pursues negotiating efforts.

Summary Grain purchases for Ukraine sea ports stop, broker saysDrought and torrential rain disrupt southern hemisphere suppliesExports increasing from RussiaPARIS, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Wheat futures are expected to leap on Monday as Russia's withdrawal from a Black Sea corridor agreement puts Ukrainian exports at risk, analysts said. Moscow suspended its participation in the Black Sea deal on Saturday, in response to what it called a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Russian-annexed Crimea. Purchasing of grain for Black Sea ports in Ukraine has stopped following Russia's decision, a Ukrainian broker said. "There are increasing exports from Russia so in the short term availability might still be there from the Black Sea," he said. Market participants will also be watching to see if the corridor deal can be salvaged, as the U.N. pursues negotiating efforts.

☆ Inflation: Is the Fed losing the war?
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

“This inflation report today was an unmitigated disaster,” wrote Christopher S. Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, a financial markets research company. Is the Fed losing the fight against inflation? But the effects of rate hikes can take months to be felt in the real economy. But the Fed is “losing the war” when it comes to price hikes for the services sector. Ultimately, some say the problem of pandemic-era inflation is just too complex to be fixed with the Fed’s blunt tools.

☆ The Fed is losing the war against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

☆ China's yuan ends at 28-month low despite fresh policy step, nears daily lower limit
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI (Reuters) -China’s yuan finished domestic trading session at a new 28-month low against the dollar on Monday, near its downside trading limit, despite the central bank taking steps to rein in the currency’s weakness. FILE PHOTO: Chinese yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken April 25, 2022. However, the midpoint continued to come in much stronger than market projections for the 23rd straight trading session, traders and analysts said. The official daily midpoint fixing limits the onshore yuan to trade in a narrow range of 2% above or below, and Monday’s guidance kept the range to between 6.8892 and 7.1704. The onshore yuan hit an intraday low of 7.1690, 14 pips away from the lower end of the trading band.

☆ China's yuan hits 28-month low despite fresh policy step, nears daily down-limit
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It was changing hands at 7.1662 at midday, 364 pips weaker than the previous late session close. read moreBy midday, the global dollar index hovered around its two-decade high of 113.996 at midday, while the offshore yuan was trading at 7.1704 per dollar. The yuan market at 0401 GMT:ONSHORE SPOT:Key indexes:*Divergence of the dollar/yuan exchange rate. Negative number indicates that spot yuan is trading stronger than the midpoint. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) allows the exchange rate to rise or fall 2 percent from official midpoint rate it sets each morning.

☆ Bank of Japan keeps ultra-low rates, dovish policy guidance
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates and dovish policy guidance on Thursday, reassuring markets that it will continue to swim against a global tide of central banks tightening monetary policy to combat soaring inflation. "However, we believe that the BOJ will never allocate monetary policy for the FX rate adjustment and will stick to the YCC policy. "The most important thing is how the foreign-exchange rate reacts to that contrast in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan. It also leaves the impression there will be no change in monetary policy during Kuroda's remaining term." He has said lesser about any merit of the weak yen recently out of consideration towards public sentiment against rising costs of living."

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. "Japanese households have a thousand trillion in yen deposits. As of June, households had 1,102 trillion yen ($7.7 trillion) in cash and deposits, while private non-financial companies had 325 trillion yen. "There is a risk of what I call capital flight by Japanese households," said Tohru Sasaki, head of Japan markets research at J.P. Morgan Securities in Tokyo. In January 2006, when spreads between U.S. and Japan were at their widest at roughly 440 bps, Japanese households had 1,631 trillion yen of assets.

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