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But a new earnings season could bring a new spark to markets. 40 stocks with earnings growth aheadWhile any improvement to bottom lines across the market is a good thing, investors don't have to settle for market-matching EPS growth. In a separate note published earlier this month, Kostin revealed the 40 stocks that Goldman Sachs believes will enjoy stronger earnings growth than the rest of the market next year. All 40 are below, ranked in descending order of 2024 estimated EPS growth. Along with each stock is its ticker, 2023 estimated EPS growth, and 2024 estimated EPS growth.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, that's, Organizations: 3Q, 4Q Locations: Wall
There's a lot on investors' minds at the moment, but according to Morgan Stanley, one type of investment might help put them at ease: dividend stocks. Dividend stocks consistently outperform non-dividend peers over time. But for investors hoping to find a safe harbor in today's stormy market, Wilson can help. The 47 stocks below all have dividend yields within the top 25% of yields by size across the market. Along with each stock is its ticker, sector, industry, last closing price, market cap, and Morgan Stanley analyst rating.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, outperformance, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, ROE Locations: Israel, Middle
Higher interest rates and lower leverage are a double whammy for stocks, according to Kostin. Markets InsiderThe result has been lower ROE across the market this year. Goldman SachsKostin broke that decline down even further, noting that, of the 69 basis-point decline this year, 31 basis points were directly attributable to higher interest expenses. "Reduced leverage, lower asset turnover, and a contraction in EBIT margins also weighed on S&P 500 ex-Financials ROE, contributing -42 bp total." Today, Kostin sees speed bumps ahead in the form of higher interest rates and deeply rooted inflation, which might stick around thanks to higher oil prices.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David J, ROE, Kostin, Goldman Sachs Kostin, Financials ROE, Berkshire Hathaway, Jerome Powell, sector's ROE, Brent, it's, that's Organizations: Financials, Energy, Berkshire, Brent
A magnificent time to buy the dipHigher bond yields hurt the Magnificent Seven's shares, Kostin said, simultaneously sending their valuations lower. "The recent upgrade to consensus estimates in part reflects the largest tech stocks growing into their elevated P/E multiples – especially NVDA and AMZN." "History suggests the upcoming earnings season is a potential catalyst for the largest tech stocks," he wrote. And for investors worried about price, Kostin has good news: shares of the Magnificent Seven stocks are the cheapest they've been in six years. Goldman SachsWith higher sales and higher earnings expectations powering shares skywards, Kostin believes that shares of the Magnificent Seven could enjoy shockingly strong appreciation from today's prices.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Tesla, David Kostin, Kostin Organizations: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Treasury
But while external forces seem to be threatening markets, Dominic Wilson, senior advisor in Goldman Sachs' global markets research group, thinks investors themselves will turn recession fears into a self-fulfilling prophecy. In a note to clients late last week, Wilson wrote that the strength of the US economy has pushed markets upwards for most of the year. Investor sentiment has driven markets all year — particularly the exuberance over the potential of AI, which sent shares of a few key tech stocks higher and dragged the rest of the S&P 500 along with them. But Wilson thinks these issues are simply a "pothole" that the market will eventually recover from. If that's the case and stocks do bounce back in 2024, smart investors should position themselves now for profits later.
Persons: Dominic Wilson, Goldman Sachs, Wilson, Americas Equity Research Steven Kron, Kron, Morgan Stanley, there's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Americas Equity Research, Wall
Not only do dividend stocks consistently outperform non-dividend-paying stocks, they also outperform during market downturns. The best dividend stocks increase payouts over timeThe only question is which dividend stocks to invest in. "Slow and steady wins the race and that's how we view dividend growth compared to high dividend yield," Wilson wrote. He polled analysts across Morgan Stanley covering high-dividend industries, asking them for their top dividend-paying stocks within their areas of expertise. Along with each company's name is the ticker symbol, Morgan Stanley analyst rating, industry, last closing price, and Morgan Stanley's estimated 2024 dividend yield.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley, it's, Morgan Stanley's
As volatility continues to punish the stock market, investors are forced to sit and watch their gains vanish. But there is one way for equity investors to stem the bleeding: dividend stocks. "Our economists are of the view that inflation will continue to slow from elevated levels over the next 12 months," Wilson wrote. "That backdrop is supportive of owning dividend-related factors and defensive dividend payers, in particular." Morgan Stanley26 best dividend stocks for big returnsAs this month's market downturn takes its toll on your portfolio, it may be time to turn to dividend stocks to prop up your profits.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, outperformance, Morgan Locations: outperformance
It may seem like an innocuous date, but according to Evercore managing director Julian Emanuel, on that day everything changed. But which AI companies are strong picks? According to a recent report by FactSet, the word "AI" was used in more earnings calls last quarter than ever before. "It also includes Consumer companies, with below economy wide average Generative AI exposure (around 28% vs. 32%) yet who are Adapting Generative AI to improve the client experience and build (repeat) loyalty through superior service." Along with each company is its ticker, sector, market capitalization, estimated AI exposure, and Evercore analyst rating where applicable.
Persons: Julian Emanuel, Nvidia's, FactSet, Evercore's Emanuel, Ed Hyman's, Emanuel, Evercore, Russell Organizations: Nvidia, Financial, Consumer
How does a government shutdown affect the stock market? As far as directly affecting the stock market, however, it would be unusual for a government shutdown to be deeply detrimental. According to Evercore senior managing director Julian Emanuel, "the history of government shutdowns has been largely irrelevant for the stock market. It didn't in 1954 and it didn't in 2020, two 'tight government' years," Emanuel wrote. "But when stocks play politics like they are now and will be for another 13+ months, it does mean more volatility."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Evercore, Jerome Powell, Julian Emanuel, shutdowns, Emanuel Organizations: Capitol, Wall, Federal Reserve, Fed, Representatives, White, Nvidia, Meta, Vertiv Holdings
And while 12 months of speculation can seem like a lifetime for investors who just want an answer, it's really only a small moment in economic history. Reid and his team spotted plenty of patterns in all that data, including the common warning signs of a recession. For example, scholars and economists have been tracking recession data in the UK since 1700, while Italy only began tracking recessions in 1980. Reid wrote that black swan events such as geopolitical shocks, natural disasters, and global pandemics happen more often than people think. "And that's before we get on to more traditional causes of recessions, like monetary tightening or speculative bubbles," Reid wrote.
Persons: it's, Jim Reid, Reid, would've, Deutsche Bank Reid Organizations: Deutsche Bank Locations: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan
The recent stock market sell-off illustrates just how uneasy investors are right now. The recommendations of Wall Street pros can provide some guidance for regular investors. These are the 10 stocks with the highest percentage of analyst 'buy' recommendations. Cutting through the noise and finding smart investments has never been more difficult. Improving investor sentiment and a few key tech stocks riding the AI wave have sent stocks higher than expected this year, and some market watchers believe the stock market rally will continue.
Persons: that's Organizations: Wall
More than 400 initial public offerings took place between 2020 and 2021, as well as 810 SPACs, according to Goldman Sachs. "Indeed, the 2020-21 wave of IPOs had abysmal performance relative to history," Kostin wrote. Goldman SachsIt's not that the companies that went public during these years were necessarily bad investments, Kostin added. "Since 1995, IPOs pricing above the range have typically risen by 38% on their first trading day," Kostin wrote. With capital markets closed for nearly two years, unprofitable companies have been forced to fund operations by spending cash balances," Kostin wrote.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, SPACs, dodo, David Kostin, IPOs, Kostin, Russell, Goldman Sachs It's, you'd, Goldman Sachs Kostin
Fears of a recession this spring eventually gave way to confidence that the economy could stick a soft landing. How to invest for the rest of 2023Sentiment has been the driving force behind stock-market gains this year, Wilson wrote. The solution, Wilson wrote, is to gain exposure to both ends of the spectrum. To that end, Wilson compiled 37 stocks that Morgan Stanley analysts are overweight on. All the stocks are among the top 1,000 by market cap, are classified as growth stocks, and have low volatility, as measured by trailing 252-day volatility that is below the market median.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, homebuilding
Although valuation matters in the long-run, sentiment has a more immediate impact on share prices, Carey Hall wrote. Carey Hall noted that "based on the equal weighted S&P 500, PE ratios are roughly at historical average levels." Bank of AmericaThe reason for this is investor pessimism, particularly when it comes to long-term growth (LTG) expectations. "Today's LTG suggests >25% price returns over the next 12 months for the S&P 500, all else equal." According to Carey Hall, the best investment opportunities lie in the interactive media & services, household durables, media, passenger airlines, energy equipment & services, and insurance industries.
Persons: , Jill Carey, Carey Hall, Carey, LTG Organizations: Bank of America, Carey Hall Locations: LTG
Meanwhile, housing starts were actually up 5.9% in July, but filings for housing permits fell 13% to 1,442,000. In the first half of this year, new housing permits plummeted 17.5% compared to the first half of 2022. "In the first half of 2022, an impressive 30 states saw year-over-year increases in their numbers of permits. All told, of the 384 metro areas that Point2 tracks data from, a mere 90 saw the number of housing permits increase year over year. Among those 384 metro areas, 56 fall under the large category, meaning they have populations of 1 million or more.
Persons: Louis Fed, Point2, Andra Hopulele, Hopulele Organizations: National Association of Realtors Locations: West
Arm Holdings, the British semiconductor and software maker, is set to go public on Thursday in the biggest initial public offering of 2023. This isn't the first time Arm shares have been available to the public. In its F-1 filing to go public, Arm said its CPUs "run the vast majority of the world's software." That would make Arm stock impressively expensive compared to peers in the tech sector. That said, while Arm shares are looking expensive today, if the company lives up to its high expectations, then the price begins to look more reasonable.
Persons: SoftBank, Arm, it's, Seth Farbman, ARM's, Farbman, Matt Bryson, he's, Bryson, Peter C, Earle, We've, It's Organizations: Arm Holdings, Bank of America, SoftBank, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, ARM, Apple, Google, AMD, Samsung, VStock, Intel, Wedbush Securities, American Institute for Economic Research, IPOs, China Arm's Locations: China
The economic downturn is ending, and a recovery is beginning, according to Bank of America. Cyclical stocks tend to outperform during a recovery, according to Savita Subramanian. She found the 50 stocks best positioned to profit from a US economic recovery. For months, Wall Street has been worried that restrictive monetary policy would curtail economic growth and quite possibly lead to both a recession and a market downturn. Now, however, Bank of America analysts believe that the economy has turned a corner and might once again be on the upswing.
Persons: Savita Subramanian Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of
What happens to the US economy nextBank of America's economic indicator has made a sudden pivot upwards, from the lows of a "downturn" phase into the gradual strengthening of a "recovery" phase. Rising inflation indicates improving economic conditions. Rising inflation indicates improving economic conditions. A rising Z-Score indicates improving economic conditions. A rising Z-Score indicates improving economic conditions.
Persons: it's, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Jan, Staples underperformed, Bank of America Subramanian, Dev Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of, Thomson, PMI, Supply Management Manufacturing, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey, Conference Board, Bond, ICE, Utilities, Health Care, Fed, of America
He also discussed Wedbush's best ideas list: 23 stock picks that have beaten the market YTD. As for the Fed, Merritt isn't particularly concerned about whether it cuts or hikes rates once again this year. The best stocks to buy nowBroadly, Merritt is neutral on equities, primarily because of the opportunity investors have to profit from bonds. Merritt also pointed to Wedbush's Best Ideas List, a collection of the highest-rated equities selected by Wedbush analysts. Wedbush's 23 best stock picks are below, along with each company's ticker and the price target it has been given by a Wedbush analyst.
Persons: Kevin Merritt, Merritt, Jerome Powell's, Jackson, What's, it's, Merritt isn't, Wedbush's, ~ ~$ ) Organizations: Wedbush Securities, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed Locations: Ukraine, China, Taiwan, Russia
Small and mid-cap stocks transforming their businesses can create great investment opportunities. Bank of America's Jill Carey Hall found 14 stocks making changes that the market hasn't noticed yet. Bank of America equity & quant strategist Jill Carey Hall knows this is particularly true for small and mid-cap (SMID-cap) stocks. As Carey Hall pointed out in a recent note to clients, that's exactly what many SMID-cap stocks are doing right now. The 14 stocks the BofA analysts chose are below, along with their tickers, sectors, market caps, price objectives, and upsides to those objectives.
Persons: Bank of America's Jill Carey Hall, Jill Carey, Carey, Carey Hall Organizations: Bank of America's, Bank of America
Data centers are perfectly positioned to take advantage of this trend, according to BofA. David Barden breaks down the opportunity for data center REITs, and which companies will profit. 2 data center giants ready for liftoffWith data centers poised to profit from the AI explosion, the only question remaining is which data center providers make the best investments now. "DLR's business model should, however, position it to develop facilities with the power density required to host large AI model Training," Barden wrote. While Equinix can capitalize on AI sooner rather than later, Digital Realty Trust's larger capacity makes it perfect for "larger, longer-dated AI training model environments," Barden wrote.
Persons: David Barden, Haim Israel, Barden, EQIX Organizations: Semiconductors, Software, Bank of America, Realty Trust, Digital Realty Trust, Digital Realty
Options trading may seem tricky, but Goldman Sachs has found a simple, profitable strategy. That options strategy is called overwriting. However, only one strategy has beaten the market for the last 18 years. This was a particularly effective strategy for stocks in the information technology and the consumer staples sectors. To that end, Marshall searched for stocks that have both a market cap within the top two-thirds of Goldman Sachs' stock coverage universe, as well as implied volatility in the top two-thirds of all the stocks Goldman Sachs analysts cover.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Marshall, outperforming Organizations: Sharpe, Goldman
A strong summer has given way to a volatile August, and September usually means trouble for stocks. And on Friday, we got a strong Payrolls report and a solid uptick in the ISM Manufacturing Index," Kron wrote. And while he noted that both Alphabet and Amazon announced strong earnings, it was Nvidia's earnings announcement that gripped investors. "Looking through this volatility, we find the market has rewarded investors that focus on stocks with earnings revision potential," Kron wrote. The 22 stocks below are the most differentiated buy recommendations among Goldman Sachs analysts right now.
Persons: Steven Kron, Goldman Sachs, Kron, NVDA, Macy's, there's Organizations: International, Labor, Federal Reserve, Consumer, Conference Board, Amazon, Visa, Wall Street
The stock market rally has hit a wall, and stocks look expensive after their explosive climb. Investors searching for a good deal may want to look at Morningstar's list of best companies to own. Ever since the banking crisis in March and the announcement of Nvidia's first-quarter earnings, the market has been on a tear. She recently pored over Morningstar's list of the 131 best companies to own in search of undervalued stocks worth buying. From that list Dziubinski found the 10 most undervalued stocks right now, as outlined below.
Persons: Stocks, Nvidia's, hasn't, It's, Morningstar's Susan Dziubinski, Dziubinski Organizations: Investors Locations: China, Europe
September is the worst month for stocks, and right now the market rally looks weak. Julian Emanuel, a senior managing director at Evercore ISI, recently published a note for clients warning them of what may be ahead. But instead of celebration and buying, investors greeted the news with a shrug and a sell-off. Evercore ISIThere are two other warning signs Emanuel is keeping an eye on. Evercore ISIWith all that said, how should investors take advantage of the buying opportunity after the September doldrums fade away?
Persons: Evercore's Julian Emanuel, it's, Julian Emanuel, Emanuel doesn't, Emanuel, that's, he's, He's Organizations: Evercore ISI, Nvidia, Evercore, Bear, Vertiv Holdings, JPMorgan, Booking Holdings Locations: U.S, China, Europe
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