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Russia Crisis Seen Having Muted Short-Term Impact on Ukraine War
  + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Ukrainian soldiers fired toward Russian positions in the Zaporizhzhia region on Saturday. (Efrem Lukatsky/Associated Press)ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine — The Wagner rebellion in Russia is unlikely to have a major impact on fighting in Ukraine, some military analysts said. Wagner had already pulled back from the the front lines, after taking control of Bakhmut in May. Whether some of the group’s paramilitaries will rejoin Russia’s war effort is unclear.
Persons: Wagner Organizations: Associated Press Locations: Zaporizhzhia, ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine, Russia
Image A Ukrainian soldier firing a mortar at Russian positions on the frontline near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, last week. Consequently, Russian reports were expected to signal the start of military action before any formal Ukrainian announcements. Two unverified Russian reports said Ukrainian forces had pushed through Russian defenses in two areas. Buttressing the Russian reports the counteroffensive had begun, independent American military analysts said they believed Ukrainian units had begun an initial thrust to determine the position and strength of Russia’s forces. It said Russian forces had destroyed two Ukrainian tanks with anti-tank missiles.
Persons: Efrem, Igor Konashenkov, Rybar Organizations: Associated Press, Kremlin, Russian Ministry of Defense, Tass, Russian Telegram, Ukrainian, NATO, Telegram Locations: Ukrainian, Bakhmut, Donetsk, Ukraine, Associated Press Ukrainian, Russian, Velyka Novosilka, Zaporizhzhia
While Ukraine has fewer guns firing fewer shells, it appear to be doing more damage than Russia. But while Ukraine has fewer guns firing fewer shells, they appear to be doing more damage even though, with some notable exceptions, they are using the same weapons as their Russian opponents. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated in February that Russia was firing around four times as many shells as Ukraine. This suggests an improvement of a factor of 7-10, which is roughly what we see in the ratios of artillery shells: casualties above. A vast number of Ukrainian drone videos show this process in operation.
Having received Western-made tanks, Ukrainians say their next goal is getting Western fighter jets. Ukraine operated roughly 82 MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets at the start of the war, as well as Su-24 and Su-25 ground-attack aircraft. Russia's newer Su-30s and Su-35s still have technical advantages, however, and downed several Ukrainian jets in the first days of the war. Calls to supply Ukraine with fighter jets picked up after the US, Germany, and other countries said they would send tanks. That pattern, seen with long-range rocket artillery and advanced air-defense systems, leads some to believe the US and other countries will ultimately relent on fighter jets.
Following Russia's 2014 attack, Ukraine's military set out to improve and modernize its forces. In the years that followed, Ukraine's military underwent a period of preparation that helped it blunt the full-scale invasion that Russia launched in February 2022. Training for artillery troops was also intensified. However, Russia's tanks still outnumbered Ukraine's nearly four to one when the invasion started. Prior to 2022, Ukraine's military had struggled to retain troops, but high turnover during those years meant Ukraine had a large pool of civilians with military training.
After earlier attacks, the Ukrainian military reported shooting down incoming Russian missiles and explosive drones, but some still reached their targets, damaging power and water supplies and increasing the suffering of the population amid freezing temperatures. Ukrainian authorities in several regions said some incoming Russian missiles were intercepted. Efrem Lukatsky / APFragments from downed Russian missiles damaged two private buildings in the Darnytskyi district of Kyiv, the city administration said. Earlier this month, the United States agreed to give a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine to boost the country’s defense. Russian officials have said that any peace plan can only proceed from Kyiv’s recognition of Russia’s sovereignty over the regions it illegally annexed from Ukraine in September.
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s foreign minister on Monday said that his government is aiming to have a peace summit by the end of February, preferably at the United Nations with Secretary-General António Guterres as a possible mediator, around the anniversary of Russia’s war. But Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told The Associated Press that Russia could only be invited to such a summit if the country faced a war crimes tribunal first. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba during an interview in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Monday. “Every war ends as a result of the actions taken on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.”Kuleba said the Ukrainian government would like to have a peace summit by the end of February. So we would welcome his active participation.”The foreign minister again downplayed comments by Russian authorities that they are ready for talks.
Zelenskyy visited the city after saying investigators had documented hundreds of Russian war crimes. "Investigators have already documented more than 400 Russian war crimes, the bodies of both civilians and military personnel are being found," he said. Locals have described mistreatment, torture, and murder by Russian troops in many areas of Ukraine that Russia had occupied, and that were subsequently retaken. Intercepted phone calls of Russian troops have also purportedly shown them bragging about torturing and killing Ukrainians. Kherson remains with little power, and Zelenskyy warned on Sunday that the city was still "very dangerous" and littered with mines.
AP Photo/Efrem LukatskyUkraine's military claims to have shot down over 1,000 Russian drones, but unmanned aerial systems continue to proliferate. Ukraine is also using its fair share of unmanned aerial systems. Special operators vs. dronesA member of the Iraqi federal police with a destroyed drone used by ISIS in Mosul in March 2017. "But now with everything from quad-copters that very small up to very large unmanned aerial vehicles, we won't always have that luxury." DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP via Getty ImagesGenerally, US special operators can take out unmanned aerial systems in two ways.
Ukrainians hold out in east, prepare battle for Kherson
  + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( ) www.nbcnews.com   time to read: +3 min
The most severe fighting in eastern Ukraine was taking place near Avdiivka, outside Donetsk, and Bakhmut, Zelenskyy said. Russian forces have repeatedly tried to seize Bakhmut, which sits on a main road leading to the Ukrainian-held cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Efrem Lukatsky / APThe looming battle for Kherson city at the mouth of the Dnipro River will determine whether Ukraine can loosen Russia’s grip on the south. Radio intercepts indicated freshly mobilized recruits had been sent to the front and Russian forces were firmly dug in. Ukrainian forces advanced along the Dnipro in a dramatic push in the south at the start of this month, but progress appears to have slowed.
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