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WASHINGTON (AP) — From Wall Street traders to car dealers to home buyers, Americans are eager for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates and lightening the heavy burden on borrowers. Why, with inflation nearly conquered and interest rates at a 22-year high, isn't now the time to cut? High rates could also compound the struggles of banks that are saddled with bad commercial real estate loans, which would be harder to refinance at higher rates. “We need the government to address the interest rates ... and understand that they’ve accomplished their goal of lowering inflation," Kelleher said. If so, that might not just delay the Fed's rate cuts, but result in fewer of them.
Persons: isn't, , Steven Blitz, “ They’re, ” Loretta Mester, Mester, , David Kelleher's Chrysler, Kelleher, ” Kelleher, Powell, ” Powell, we’re, Andrea Kugler, Eric Swanson Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, GlobalData, Lombard, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Jeep, Fed, University of California Locations: Wall, Philadelphia, Irvine
Read previewOn Monday, Chinese real-estate giant Evergrande was ordered by a Hong Kong court to liquidate after two years in a debt crisis. The court has appointed Alvarez and Marsal as liquidator to manage the company, Evergrande said in a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. So, protecting Evergrande's offshore investors probably isn't in Beijing's favor, because it could spur further speculation in the market, Møller added. Offshore creditors are owed $25 billion, the Hong Kong court document showed, per CNN. This is because liquidators appointed by Hong Kong's courts are unlikely to have much power over Evergrande's mainland assets, Hong added.
Persons: , Evergrande, Alvarez, Marsal, Emil Møller, Møller, there's, Xi Jinping's, Fern Wang, Wang, Hao Hong, liquidators, Hong, Siu Shawn Organizations: Service, Business, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Steno Research, Lombard, KT Capital Group, CNN, Grow Investment, China Evergrande Group, Reuters, Century Business Herald, Hengda Real Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing, China, Denmark, Beijing's, homebuyers, Swiss, People's Republic of China, Hengda
UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti on Wednesday said people with concerns about the size of the bank's balance sheet are getting "indoctrinated" by academics and should "do their homework." The bank's share price has recovered from below 17 Swiss francs ($19.69) per share in the aftermath of the deal to over 25 Swiss francs as of Wednesday morning. However, the new entity's combined balance sheet is estimated to be around twice the size of the entire GDP of Switzerland, raising concerns about the concentration of risk in the Swiss economy. "If you look at risk-weighted assets as a percentage of GDP or as a percentage of our balance sheet, you will discover that the new UBS is de facto very low risk, very focused business model. The risk we have is in Swiss mortgages, in Lombard loans, in stuff that is very low risk," he said.
Persons: Sergio Ermotti, Ermotti Organizations: UBS, Credit Suisse, Swiss, CNBC, Economic Locations: Swiss, Switzerland, Davos, Lombard
China's trying to manage its property crisis so the sector's troubles don't spill over. However, history shows that credit-fueled real-estate booms nearly always end with a major banking crisis, said an analyst. Real estate was a key driver of China's economy that has been struggling to recover post-pandemic. AdvertisementChina's trying to manage its real-estate crisis so that its troubles don't spill over to the rest of the economy, which has been struggling to recover post-pandemic. "History shows that credit-fuelled real-estate booms do not end in a whimper; rather, they end with a bang — and nearly always with a major banking crisis," wrote Andrew Lawrence, the head of Asia property at GlobalData.TS Lombard, in a note on Tuesday.
Persons: , Andrew Lawrence Organizations: Service Locations: Asia, GlobalData.TS
Bank of England drags Bagehot into the shadows
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
That is no longer tenable, in part because of reforms to bank regulation that shifted activity from traditional lenders to financial market players. These days, the institutions in need of urgent liquidity are just as likely to be pension funds, insurers or hedge funds. The British central bank’s initial ideas make sense, but only solve part of the problem. The central bank can short-circuit the panic by opening the credit taps. Central banks are only just starting to grapple with what it means to be a lender of last resort in that context.
Persons: Walter Bagehot’s, Andrew Hauser, BoE, WALTER, Gurney, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Pensions, . Treasury, Citadel, Millennium Management, City of, U.S . Federal, Gurney & Company, Victorian, Thomson Locations: British, City, City of London, Basel, Overend, Lombard
For much of this year central banks have successfully pushed back against rate cut bets. "I believe the Fed will act rationally and begin to cut rates by the end of next year, but we can't rule out the scenario that the Fed is not going to cut rates and just let the ramifications of recession do what they do." Reuters GraphicsSHIFT NEARINGMarkets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. "There are now committee members in all three (banks) willing to talk about rate cuts next year," said Chris Jeffery, head of rates and inflation strategy at LGIM. "The ECB should begin to ease policy as soon as April 2024, with risks that a more sinister downturn in growth could warrant a rate cut as soon as March," he said.
Persons: Jonathan Ernst, ramping, It's, Nate Thooft, Goldman, Christopher Waller, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Chris Jeffery, we'd, Dario Perkins, Simon Harvey, Yoruk, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Roberston, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebasvili, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Manulife Investment Management, Treasury, Graphics, Bank of England, Deutsche, Lombard, Traders, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Goldman Sachs, Greek, Amsterdam, London
AdvertisementThis as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Kiara Areli, a 22-year-old truck driver based in the Chicago area. At Amazon, I joined the Amazon Career Choice program , an educational initiative designed to empower Amazon employees to learn new skills for career success. Becoming a truck driver was one of the best decisions I've ever madeBefore becoming a truck driver, I was in a dark place and had no idea what I wanted to do with my life. Honestly, I don't regret not continuing college — now I feel like I have a purpose because I'm also inspiring others to consider this truck driving career path. If you have worked as a truck driver and want to share your story, email Aria Yang at ayang@insider.com.
Persons: , Kiara Areli, would've, you'll, It's, I've, I'm, Aria Yang Organizations: Service, Amazon Locations: Chicago, Lockport, Lombard, Batavia , Illinois, Skokie , Illinois, ayang@insider.com
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHosting COP28 in UAE is an opportunity and a risk, says Lombard OdierThomas Hohne-Sparborth, head of sustainability research at Lombard Odier, discusses his expectations for COP28 and explains why financing costs have increased in the energy sector.
Persons: Lombard Odier Thomas Hohne, Lombard Odier Organizations: Lombard Locations: UAE
Nvidia earnings will be in focus in the Thanksgiving-shortened week ahead, as investors consider the sustainability of the November rally heading into year-end. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD The chip giant's results will come amid a broad rally for equities this month. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced more than 9%. That stands in marked contrast to the S & P 500, which trades at a multiple of 22. Hopes for a dovish Fed Wall Street is also heading into next week after absorbing some positive news.
Persons: Timothy Arcuri, China —, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Quincy Krosby, Bill Baruch, CNBC's, That's, Bonds, Giuseppe Sette, Dow, Jeff Hirsch, , Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Microsoft, LPL, Dow, Blue, Investors, Chicago Fed, HP Inc, Autodesk, Devices, Lowe's, Deere, P, PMI, P Global PMI Locations: FactSet, China, Treasurys, Lombard, Michigan
At least a few of the incidents had overlapping suspect descriptions: a white man in his 40s or 50s, at least 6 feet tall and weighing between 220 and 300 pounds. In the package that the district attorney sent to Hathaway, there was a grainy surveillance video of one of the previous attacks, which showed a heavyset white man approaching a man sleeping on the sidewalk, spraying him with a large canister and walking quickly away as the man writhed in pain. What kind of person would spray homeless people with bear mace? The answer, Hathaway would later tell the court, was clear: A person who says: “I’m a vigilante justice. I’m above and beyond the law.’”Until 2020, homelessness had not been a primary concern for Marina residents.
Persons: , Carmignani, , Hathaway, , Nathaniel Roye, Ashley Buck Organizations: Marina, Moscone Locations: San Francisco, Marina, Lombard, Chestnut
A recently edgy bond market gobbled all that up. Funds' bonds allocation in November soared 18 points over the month to leave them net 19% overweight - almost 3 standard deviations above long-term averages. Asset managers' overweight bond positions - or at least those in government bonds and U.S. Treasuries - tends to be mirrored by big short positions in Treasury futures among speculative hedge funds. CFTC numbers show the scale of that speculative 'Big Short' on the flipside of the mounting 'Big Long' built by regular asset managers. Lamont points out that U.S. Treasury yields and investment grade corporate debt yields would have to rise about another 100bps for the capital losses to wipe out current yields.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Lazard, Ronald Temple, Lombard Odier's Florian Ielpo, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Jason Pride, Mike Dolan, Susan Fenton Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Bank of America's, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, what's
Hopes for lower borrowing costs overnight helped shares in Asia, which missed out on Friday's rally that was inspired by the U.S. jobs data. DOLLAR DROPSTwo-year Treasury yields , which reflect interest rate expectations, rose 5.9 bps to 4.891% after falling 18 bps last week. The recent retreat in Treasury yields pulled the rug out from under the dollar last week. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, was steady at 105.07 after sliding 1.4% last week. U.S. crude rose 1.73% to $81.90 per barrel and Brent was at $86.07, up 1.39% on the day.
Persons: Issei Kato, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, BoE, Samy Chaar, Jerome Powell, Brent, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Lombard, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, New York, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza
A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. With investors confident that big central banks are likely done raising rates, focus has switched to when rate cuts will start. Traders now price in over an 80% chance of a 25 basis-points (bps) ECB cut by April, which had been fully priced for July last week. Piet Christiansen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, said the expectations for ECB rate cuts now reflected a "doom and gloom" scenario. He added the ECB would need to cut rates at least as much as traders expect next year.
Persons: Heiko Becker, BoE, Shamik Dhar, Christine Lagarde, Piet Christiansen, Lagarde, Goldman, Gurpreet Gill, Dario Perkins, Yoruk, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Dhara Ranasinghe, Emelia Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Traders, ECB, Fed, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, BNY Mellon Investment, Treasury, Reuters, Danske Bank, Asset Management, Lombard, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, United States, Europe, U.S, Britain, Israel
The 27 member states of the EU have been at odds over new debt rules for several months. "Higher perceived risk of a return to old, stringent fiscal rules forcing a faster deficit reduction would worsen medium-term growth expectations for the EU, weighing on the euro. The old rulesEuropean member states have had to comply with fiscal rules that require they respect a 60% debt-to-GDP threshold and a public deficit of 3%. In 2020, the fiscal rulebook was frozen so member states could deviate from their fiscal targets and spend on pandemic-related matters, such as protecting jobs. And with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the fiscal rules were kept on hold because governments were faced with new energy costs and inflationary pressures.
Persons: Giorgia Meloni, Antonio Masiello, Davide Oneglia, Oneglia, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Italian, Getty, European Union, Lombard, Goldman, European Commission Locations: Italy, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings season isn't going as expected: Multi Asset Group Lombard Odier Asset ManagementFlorian Ielpo, head of macroeconomics at Multi Asset Group Lombard Odier Asset Management, discusses the outlook for U.S. and European markets.
Persons: Florian Ielpo Organizations: Management
Enter the Swiss franc, a longstanding safe haven asset that just hit its highest level against the euro since 2015 , standing tall as its traditional rivals lose appeal. Other than U.S. dollar cash, only the Swiss franc and gold remained as options, Ielpo said. The Swiss franc has rallied over 3% against the yen this month. Reuters GraphicsUNCERTAIN WORLDSince the Oct.7 Hamas attacks in Israel, the Swiss franc -- also referred to as the Swissie -- has rallied roughly 2% against the dollar. "The war in the Middle East clearly has lead to a flight to safety that benefited the Swiss franc," said Karsten Junius, an economist at J.Safra Sarasin in Zurich.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Florian Ielpo, Ielpo, Jeremy Stretch, Karsten Junius, Francesco Pesole, J.Safra Sarassin's Junius, Luca Paolini, Paolini, Treasuries, Toby Gibb, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, John Revill, Amanda Cooper, Dhara, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Swiss, Nestle, Wall, Lombard, U.S, Swiss National Bank, Traders, Ministry of Finance, CIBC Capital Markets, Reuters, ING, Management, Artemis, Thomson Locations: ZURICH, Israel, Geneva, Japan, Zurich, Swiss, U.S, London
Globalisation woes create new winners and losers
  + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
Over the past seven decades, the world economy has grown 14-fold, powered by a 45-fold expansion in global trade, according to the World Trade Organization. World trade as a percentage of GDP peaked at 61% in 2008. The first is rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. The retrenchment is probably going to be gradual: global trade was still worth 57% of world GDP last year. For 2024, the WTO said growth in goods trade would pick up to 3.3%, virtually unchanged from its April estimate of 3.2%.
Persons: Chris Helgren, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping “, , Caroline Freund, Aaditya Mattoo, Alen Mulabdic, Michele Ruta, Ursula von der Leyen, it’s, Laura Alfaro, Davin Chor, Dario Perkins, GlobalData’s Perkins, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Warehouse Union, REUTERS, Reuters, World Trade Organization, Economic, Reuters Graphics Reuters, HK, Amperex Technology, European Central Bank, GlobalData, Lombard, Companies, Bureau of Labor Statistics, ECB, Thomson Locations: Vancouver , British Columbia, Canada, Netherlands, United States, China, Beijing, Washington, U.S, Taiwan, Mexico, Vietnam, People’s Republic, Latin America, Chile, Brazil, Ukraine, Geneva
Over the past seven decades, the world economy has grown 14-fold, powered by a 45-fold expansion in global trade, according to the World Trade Organization. World trade as a percentage of GDP peaked at 61% in 2008. The first is rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. The retrenchment is probably going to be gradual: global trade was still worth 57% of world GDP last year. For 2024, the WTO said growth in goods trade would pick up to 3.3%, virtually unchanged from its April estimate of 3.2%.
Persons: Chris Helgren, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping “, , Caroline Freund, Aaditya Mattoo, Alen Mulabdic, Michele Ruta, Ursula von der Leyen, it’s, Laura Alfaro, Davin Chor, Dario Perkins, GlobalData’s Perkins, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Warehouse Union, REUTERS, Reuters, World Trade Organization, Economic, Reuters Graphics Reuters, HK, Amperex Technology, European Central Bank, GlobalData, Lombard, Companies, Bureau of Labor Statistics, ECB, Thomson Locations: Vancouver , British Columbia, Canada, Netherlands, United States, China, Beijing, Washington, U.S, Taiwan, Mexico, Vietnam, People’s Republic, Latin America, Chile, Brazil, Ukraine, Geneva
Describing that anticipated outcome while keeping open the possibility of future rate increases will be one challenge Powell faces. Another will be discounting speculation about the prospect of rate cuts or changes to other aspects of Fed policy, such as the ongoing reduction of the central bank's balance sheet. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is just about six-tenths of a percentage point below the Fed's policy rate; when the gap between the two shifts from negative to positive is when monetary policy gets perhaps its truest test. Recent data on balance don't fully back the Fed's view of a gently slowing economy and steadily easing inflation. "Assuming the economy keeps growing ... the Fed will get back to hiking," Blitz said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Larry Meyer, Meyer, Krishna Guha, Powell's, Christopher Waller, Waller, Steven Blitz, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S ., Economic, of New, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Evercore ISI, Hamas, U.S . House, Graphics, TS Lombard, Thomson Locations: U.S . Congress, of New York, Israel, Palestinian, Washington, U.S
CNBC Daily Open: Inflation reports take center stage
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
In this article JPMCWFCGOOGL Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTA pedestrian passes a Wall Street subway station near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Monday, June 27, 2022. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. This pushed U.S. markets lower, renewing fears of what lies next for the Federal Reserve, which has stuck to its goal of 2% inflation. Investors may now want to take a deep breath to brace themselves before the barrage of earnings reports take markets by storm.
Persons: Michael Nagle, Steven Blitz, Zhiwei Zhang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, GlobalData, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells, Bank Locations: New York, U.S
Mike Blake | ReutersIn theory, getting inflation closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target doesn't sound terribly difficult. The main culprits are related to services and shelter costs, with many of the other components showing noticeable signs of easing. watch nowInstead, getting better control of rents, medical care services and the like could take ... well, you might not want to know. Policymakers have been banking on the notion that when existing rental leases expire, they will be renegotiated at lower prices, bringing down shelter inflation. He added that the CPI report "is a reminder that we do not have good historic examples to lean on" for long-term patterns in rent inflation.
Persons: Mike Blake, Steven Blitz, Goldman Sachs, Lisa Sturtevant, Christopher Bruen, Marta Norton, Stephen Juneau, Juneau Organizations: Reuters, GlobalData, Street, Cleveland Fed, Bright MLS, Housing, Americas, Morningstar Wealth, Bank of America Locations: Rancho, San Diego , California, Maryland, Stephen Juneau , U.S
REUTERS/Staff/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Global stocks tick up; U.S. futures riseBond yields tumble again but remain highOil prices steady after rising on Israel-Hamas warLONDON/SINGAPORE, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Global stocks edged higher on Wednesday while bond yields dropped again as investors waited for minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. inflation figures. Meanwhile, oil prices were little changed as traders kept an eye on the conflict between Palestinian militants and Israel. The MSCI All World stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) was last up 0.21% on Wednesday, after rising 1% in the previous session. Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.26% after the stock index (.SPX) climbed 0.52% on Tuesday. Global stocks, which had been on the slide since early August, have rallied for the last few sessions.
Persons: Dow Jones, I'm, Florian Ielpo, Arthur van Slooten, Raphael Bostic, Harry Robertson, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, LONDON, Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Lombard, Global, Investors, Treasury, Societe Generale, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Israel, SINGAPORE, Palestinian, Nashville, Gaza, Brent, China, London, Singapore
Key bond yields are likely headed to 6% as the Fed will keep hiking interest rates, TS Lombard said. That's due to recent robust economic data, which could influence the Fed to take interest rates higher. Higher rates risk sparking a recession, especially considering interest rates are already higher than Fed officials think, Blitz said. Markets have panicked in recent weeks as investors try to adjust to a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Yields on the 10-year US Treasury just rose to their highest level since 2007, briefly touching 4.8% on Friday.
Persons: Lombard, , Steven Blitz Organizations: stoke, Treasury, Service, Federal Reserve, Lombard, Investors,
A steepening yield curve is when the spread between long- and short-term bond yields widens. Either the long-term yield rises faster than the short-term yield - a bear steepener - or the short-term yield is falling more - a bull steepener. Bear steepenings of the benchmark two-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve, when the curve is inverted, are rare. In some ways, a positive-sloping yield curve is the natural order of things. Graff reckons the bear steepening is almost over and the curve will struggle to get past -20 bps.
Persons: Warren Pies, Dario Perkins, Lombard's Perkins, Bond, Bill Gross, Goldman Sachs, Tom Graff, Graff, Jamie McGeever, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, 3Fourteen Research, TS Lombard, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, London reckons
A parcel-sorting chain of Prisme, an interprofessional book distribution platform of Geodis in a Paris suburb. Photo: emmanuel dunand/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesCompanies are making big changes to their supply chains in the wake of the Covid pandemic and rising tensions between the U.S. and China, and logistics businesses are following them to new destinations as they try to clear the hurdles to new manufacturing and distribution strategies.
Persons: emmanuel dunand Organizations: Agence France, Getty, U.S Locations: Paris, China
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