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A deadly virus and a public health lockdown remade daily routines with startling speed, leaving little time for the country to prepare. Four years later, the coronavirus pandemic has largely receded from public attention and receives little discussion on the campaign trail. Though diminished, the pandemic has become the background music of the presidential campaign trail, shaping how voters feel about the nation, the government and their politics. The pandemic hardened voter distrust in government, a sentiment Mr. Trump and his allies are using to their advantage. Fears of political violence, even civil war, are at record highs, and rankings of the nation’s happiness at record lows.

Persons: Joseph R, Biden, Donald J, Trump, —, Kathy Hochul, “ We’re, ” Organizations: White House, ” Locations: New York

While White House officials say they have largely reached the limits of their power to protect abortion rights, the issue has emerged as a linchpin of their re-election strategy. The tour is part of a White House initiative led by Ms. Harris to highlight abortion rights. The mere sight of a top Democratic official walking into an abortion clinic will offer the clearest illustration yet of how the politics of abortion rights have shifted for the party — and the nation. Mr. Biden has promised to restore federal abortion rights and preserve access to medication abortion, which faces new threats from a case set to be argued before the Supreme Court this month. He barely mentioned abortion rights during his 2020 campaign, a reflection of his discomfort with discussion of the issue and how little his strategists believed abortion energized swing voters.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, Roe, Wade, Tim Walz, . Walz, Betty McCollum, shied, Biden’s, Donald J, Mr, Biden, ”, Reid J, Epstein Organizations: White, The, of Family, Gov, Minnesota, Democratic, Republicans Locations: Twin Cities, Minnesota, KFF, Texas, Roe

☆ Kamala Harris Will Visit Abortion Clinic, in Historic First
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Lisa Lerer | Nicholas Nehamas | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Vice President Kamala Harris plans to meet with abortion providers and staff members on Thursday in the Twin Cities, a visit that is believed to be the first stop by a president or vice president to an abortion clinic. The appearance at a health center will be the latest leg in a nationwide tour by Ms. Harris, who has emerged as the most outspoken defender of abortion rights in the administration. While White House officials say they have largely reached the limits of their power to protect abortion rights, the issue has emerged as a linchpin of their re-election strategy. Ms. Harris plans on Thursday to tour the center with an abortion provider and highlight what the administration has done to try to preserve access to the procedure as conservative states enact growing restrictions. Minnesota has become a haven for abortion seekers since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, ushering in restrictive laws and bans in neighboring states.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, Roe, Wade Organizations: White, The, of Family Locations: Twin Cities, Minnesota

☆ The Trump-Biden Rematch Is Here. Americans Are Processing.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Lisa Lerer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

After weeks of campaign ads, political speeches and voting in more than two dozen primary contests, Americans are coming to terms with a reality that many have tried to avoid: a rematch. For months, large swaths of Democratic, independent and moderate Republican voters have moved through familiar emotional stages, processing the prospect of President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump fighting it out, once again, for months. They have dealt with denial, believing other candidates would emerge, and bargaining, entertaining fantasies about last-minute entrants, nationally viable third-party candidates and speedy legal prosecutions. “You ever hear people say, ‘You’re picking, but that’s not the choice you want’?” said Shalonda Horton, 50, as she walked into a polling place in Austin, Texas, to vote for Mr. Biden on Tuesday. “When I get in there, I’ll say, ‘Lord, help me.’”In Los Angeles, Jason Kohler, who calls himself a progressive Democrat, said he was casting his ballot for Mr. Biden only with resignation.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, “, that’s, ”, Shalonda Horton, Mr, ’, Jason Kohler Organizations: Republican, Trump Locations: Austin , Texas, Los Angeles

☆ Amid Age Concerns, the White House Tries a New Strategy: Let Joe Be Joe
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Katie Rogers | Lisa Lerer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

He is making visits to ice cream parlors and barbecue joints, and asking to meet with influencers who can disseminate images of him on TikTok and Instagram. He is talking more often to reporters and fielding questions on the Middle East, Republicans and, of course, his age. “I have been saying for several months to the campaign, ‘Please, let him be Joe Biden,’ and so have many others,” Senator Chris Coons, Democrat of Delaware and a close ally of the president, said in an interview. “It is not only good for the campaign. It is good for him and it’s good for the country when Joe Biden gets a chance to get out from behind the podium and be less President Joe Biden and more Joe.”

Persons: influencers, Biden, Donald J, Trump, ’, enraging, “, Joe Biden, Chris Coons, Joe, ” Organizations: Republicans Locations: East, Delaware

☆ Key Primary Races in California and North Carolina to Follow on Super Tuesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Lisa Lerer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Typically, Super Tuesday looms large on the political calendar as the moment the presidential race moves from one-state-at-a-time contests into more than a dozen states, all at once. The delegate haul is immense, representing as much as one-third of each party’s total. Down the ballot from the presidential race, several states are hosting consequential primary contests. These races lack the high profile of the presidential campaign, but they can give us hints about the kind of race the country may face in November. Here are three worth watching:California SenateThe California Senate primary was expected to be a titanic clash over the future and ideology of the Democratic Party.

Persons: Donald Trump, Biden Organizations: Super, California Senate, Democratic Party Locations: California

☆ Majority of Biden’s 2020 Voters Now Say He’s Too Old to Be Effective
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Lisa Lerer | Ruth Igielnik | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Widespread concerns about President Biden’s age pose a deepening threat to his re-election bid, with a majority of voters who supported him in 2020 now saying he is too old to lead the country effectively, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College. The survey pointed to a fundamental shift in how voters who backed Mr. Biden four years ago have come to see him. A striking 61 percent said they thought he was “just too old” to be an effective president. The misgivings about Mr. Biden’s age cut across generations, gender, race and education, underscoring the president’s failure to dispel both concerns within his own party and Republican attacks painting him as senile. Seventy-three percent of all registered voters said he was too old to be effective, and 45 percent expressed a belief that he could not do the job.

Persons: Biden’s, Biden Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, Mr

☆ After South Carolina, Trump’s March to the Nomination Quickens
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-25 | by ( Lisa Lerer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But his overwhelming victory on Saturday in South Carolina, where he defeated Nikki Haley in her home state, makes it all but official. The Republican nominating contest isn’t a competition. The stakes were extraordinarily high: Many of his Republican opponents see Mr. Trump as, at best, unelectable and, at worst, a threat to the foundations of American democracy. And yet, as the campaign has moved through the first nominating contests, the race has not revealed Mr. Trump’s weaknesses, but instead the enduring nature of his ironclad grip on the Republican Party. “I think the party will be done with Trump when Trump is done with the party,” said David Kochel, a longtime Republican strategist who is opposed to Mr. Trump.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, It’s, ”, David Kochel, “ Organizations: Republican, Republican Party, Capitol, Trump, Mr Locations: Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire, New York City

An Alabama Supreme Court ruling, that frozen embryos should be considered children, has created a new political nightmare for Republicans nationally, who distanced themselves from a fringe view about reproductive health that threatened to drive away voters in November. Several Republican governors and lawmakers swiftly disavowed the decision, made by a Republican-majority court, expressing support for in vitro fertilization treatments. Others declared they would not support federal restrictions on I.V.F., drawing a distinction between their support for broadly popular fertility treatments and their opposition to abortion. “The concern for years has been that I.V.F. would be taken away from women everywhere,” Representative Nancy Mace, Republican of South Carolina, said in an interview on Thursday.

Persons: Nancy Mace Organizations: Alabama Supreme, Republican Locations: Alabama, South Carolina, I.V.F

☆ Trump Allies Plan New Sweeping Abortion Restrictions
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-17 | by ( Lisa Lerer | Elizabeth Dias | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Allies of former President Donald J. Trump and officials who served in his administration are planning ways to restrict abortion rights if he returns to power that would go far beyond proposals for a national ban or the laws enacted in conservative states across the country. Behind the scenes, specific anti-abortion plans being proposed by Mr. Trump’s allies are sweeping and legally sophisticated. Some of their proposals would rely on enforcing the Comstock Act, a long-dormant law from 1873, to criminalize the shipping of any materials used in an abortion — including abortion pills, which account for the majority of abortions in America. “We don’t need a federal ban when we have Comstock on the books,” said Jonathan F. Mitchell, the legal force behind a 2021 Texas law that found a way to effectively ban abortion in the state before Roe v. Wade was overturned. “There’s a smorgasbord of options.”Mr. Mitchell, who represented Mr. Trump in arguments before the Supreme Court over whether the former president could appear on the ballot in Colorado, indicated that anti-abortion strategists had purposefully been quiet about their more advanced plans, given the political liability the issue has become for Republicans.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Trump’s, Comstock, ”, Jonathan F, Mitchell, Roe, Wade, Mr Locations: America, Texas, Colorado

As former President Donald J. Trump speeds toward the Republican nomination, President Biden is moving quickly to pump energy into his re-election bid, kicking off what is likely to be an ugly, dispiriting and historically long slog to November between two unpopular nominees. After months of languid buildup in which he held only a single public campaign event, Mr. Biden has thrown a series of rallies across battleground states, warning that democracy itself is at stake in 2024. He sent two of his most trusted White House operatives to take the helm of his re-election campaign in Wilmington, Del., after Mr. Trump seized control of the Republican primary race more rapidly than Mr. Biden’s advisers had initially expected. And other Biden aides are drafting wish lists of potential surrogates, including elected officials, social media influencers and the endorsement of their wildest dreams: the global superstar Taylor Swift.

Persons: Donald J, Biden, Trump, Taylor Swift Organizations: Trump, Republican, White Locations: Wilmington, Del

☆ Why Democrats Are Using Personal Abortion Stories
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Lisa Lerer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When Dr. Austin Dennard, an OB-GYN in Dallas, learned that her 11-week-old fetus had a fatal medical condition in July 2022, she immediately understood the medical implications. What she didn’t know was that she would soon land in the middle of a lawsuit against the state of Texas — and in the midst of the presidential campaign. Dennard is starring in a new political ad for President Biden’s re-election campaign, in which she describes her diagnosis and having to leave Texas and its restrictive abortion law to get an abortion. Democrats like Biden are increasingly having women describe, in stark, emotional detail, the personal impact of the abortion bans championed by their Republican opponents. Andy Beshear, a Democrat seeking re-election in Kentucky, ran an ad featuring a woman who said she was raped as child by her stepfather, criticizing a state abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest.

Persons: Austin Dennard, Biden’s, Biden, Andy Beshear Organizations: OB, Republican Locations: Dallas, Texas, Kentucky

☆ New Hampshire and Iowa Reveal Broader Weaknesses for Trump
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Michael C. Bender | Lisa Lerer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

For weeks, Donald J. Trump has romped through Iowa and New Hampshire without breaking a sweat, muscling out rivals for the Republican nomination and soaking up adoration from crowds convinced he will be the next president of the United States. But as Mr. Trump marches steadily toward his party’s nomination, a harsher reality awaits him. Outside the soft bubble of Republican primaries, Mr. Trump’s campaign is confronting enduring vulnerabilities that make his nomination a considerable risk for his party. Mr. Trump still won easily. Ron DeSantis of Florida said Tuesday in an interview with Blaze TV, a conservative media company, just a couple of days after he ended his own campaign and endorsed Mr. Trump.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, Mr, Republicans clamoring, MAGA, Reagan, Ron DeSantis, he’s, ” Organizations: Republican, Republicans, Mr, Trump, Blaze Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, United States, ’, Florida

The much-fabled power of New Hampshire’s fiercely independent voters wasn’t enough to break the spell Donald J. Trump has cast over the Republican Party. His winning margin of 11 percentage points in moderate New Hampshire demonstrated his ironclad control of the party’s hard-right base and set him on what could very well be a short march to the nomination. For Ms. Haley, the former South Carolina governor, it was a disappointing finish in a state she had poured considerable resources into carrying. Her efforts to cobble together a coalition of independents and anti-Trump Republicans, with support from the state’s popular governor, were no match for Mr. Trump’s legions of loyalists. Even though Ms. Haley is vowing to fight on, the difficult terrain ahead in South Carolina means that this first-in-the-nation primary could turn out to be the last.

Persons: Hampshire’s, Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, steamrolled, Ron DeSantis, Haley, Trump’s Organizations: Republican Party, Republican, White House, South, Trump Republicans Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

☆ Reading the Signs in New Hampshire
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Lisa Lerer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

If you want to understand the New Hampshire primary, stand at the corner of West Broadway and Valley Street in Derry, N.H. There are two huge yard signs — one for Nikki Haley and one for Donald Trump — on adjacent houses. Not exactly: When my colleague Michael Bender headed there recently, neighbors told him that the pro-Haley house had been vacant for years, and that political campaigns often planted their signs there. The race looks like a real contest, with yard signs and all the usual campaign events. Yet when you dig a little deeper, there’s far less going on than it may seem.

Persons: Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, Michael Bender, Haley Organizations: Trump Locations: Hampshire, West Broadway, Derry, N.H, Florida

With only about 48 hours left to campaign in the New Hampshire primary, Nikki Haley finally got the two-person race she wanted. For months, it has been an article of faith among Ms. Haley’s supporters and a coalition of anti-Trump Republicans that the only way to defeat Donald J. Trump was to winnow the field to a one-on-one contest and consolidate support among his opponents. That wishcasting became reality on Sunday afternoon, when Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida ended his White House bid. And yet, as the race reached the final day, there was little sign that Mr. DeSantis’s departure would transform Ms. Haley’s chances of winning.

Persons: Nikki Haley, Haley’s, Donald J, Trump, Ron DeSantis, DeSantis’s Organizations: Trump Republicans, Gov Locations: New Hampshire, Florida

The first-in-the-nation primary could be the last stand for the anti-Trump Republican. Since 2016, a shrinking band of Republican strategists, retired lawmakers and donors has tried to oust Donald J. Trump from his commanding position in the party. Ahead of New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday, the old guard of the G.O.P. Anything but a very close finish for her in the state, where moderate, independent voters make up 40 percent of the electorate, would send Mr. Trump on an all-but-unstoppable march to the nomination. Yet, their long-running war against him has helped to frame the nominating contest around a central, and deeply tribal, litmus test: loyalty to Mr. Trump.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Trump Republicans won’t, Nikki Haley Organizations: Trump Republican, Trump Republicans

Mr. Trump’s overwhelming victory again demonstrated his enduring command of the Republican Party. Ron DeSantis of Florida narrowly pulled ahead of Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor. Their close finish gave both a rationale for continuing their campaigns, which is likely to help Mr. Trump. After so many months of attacks between her and Mr. DeSantis, the old political trope held true: In 2024, there are three “tickets” out of Iowa. But Mr. Trump rides away on a bullet train.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Trump’s, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Haley, DeSantis Organizations: Republican Party, Gov, South Locations: Iowa, Florida, South Carolina, New Hampshire

☆ On the Ballot in Iowa: Fear. Anxiety. Hopelessness.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( Lisa Lerer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Presidential elections traditionally speak to future aspirations, offering a vision of a better tomorrow, the hope and change of Barack Obama or the compassionate conservatism of George W. Bush. Yet this year, even before a single vote has been cast, a far darker sentiment has taken hold. Across Iowa, as the first nominating contest approaches on Monday, voters plow through snowy streets to hear from candidates, mingle at campaign events and casually talk of the prospect of World War III, civil unrest and a nation coming apart at the seams. Four years ago, voters worried about a spiraling pandemic, economic uncertainty and national protests. “In Iowa, life isn’t lived in extremes, except the weather, and yet they still feel this dramatic sense of inevitable doom.”

Persons: Barack Obama, George W, Bush, ”, Doug Gross, Nikki Haley, isn’t Organizations: Capitol, Republican, “ Locations: Iowa

☆ Opinion | The War Between Israel and Hamas Is Splintering the Democratic Coalition
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +17 min

These young voters faulted Israel’s response to the attacks, 52-32 percent. This wartime shift represents a fundamental break within a liberal coalition that has long powered the Democratic Party. Clearly, the most left-leaning young adults have the lowest rating of Israel. The Arab American Institute commissioned John Zogby Strategies to conduct a survey of 500 Arab Americans between Oct. 23 and Oct. 27. In this poll, 32 percent of Arab Americans identified as Republican as opposed to just 23 percent who identified as Democrats.

Persons: Biden’s, Biden, Donald Trump, Gallup, Jennifer Medina, Lisa Lerer, Benjamin Netanyahu, Bruce Cain, nonwhite, Cain, Siena, Hillary, ”, Norman Ornstein, ” Ornstein, Ornstein, Liz Skalka, Daniel Marans, Akbar Shahid Ahmed, “, Robbie Gramer, ” Gramer, ’ Gramer, ” Amy Mackinnon, Gramer, Antony Blinken, ” Yossi Hasson, Maya Tamir, Kea, Brahms, J, Christopher Cohrs, Eran Halperin, Niloufar Zebarjadi, Eliyahu Adler, Annika Kluge, Mikko Sams, Jonathan Levy, Zebarjadi, Jeremy Konyndyk, Harris, ” Laura Royden, Eitan Hersh, ” “, Hersh, Israel favorability, Young, John Zogby, Zogby, Farah Pandith, Pandith, —, Trump, Julie Wronski, Wronski, Stephen Ansolabehere Organizations: Quinnipiac University Poll, Biden, Democratic, West Bank, Democratic Party, Stanford, American Enterprise Institute, Democratic National Committee, State Department, U.S, USAID, United States Agency for International Development, Foreign, Liberals, Aalto University, USAID’s, U.S . Foreign, Politico, U.S ., Harvard, “, Israel, Young American Left, Tufts, Republicans, U.S.A, ”, Arab American Institute, American, Council, Foreign Relations, University of Mississippi Locations: Israel, Gaza, Medina, United States, Washington, Palestinian, ”, Finland, Russia, Ukraine, U.S, Palestine, Michigan, America

Democrats argued that the results on Tuesday night showed abortion’s resonance even in some of the country’s most conservative areas. Support for the measure enshrining abortion rights was notably higher than the backing for the Democratic candidate for Senate last year, particularly in the suburban swing counties surrounding Columbus and Cleveland. The results will almost certainly require the State Supreme Court to invalidate a six-week ban with limited exceptions that passed in 2019. Republicans have been searching in vain for a successful message on abortion ever since the Supreme Court’s decision. For nearly a half-century, Republican candidates had simply proclaimed themselves “pro-life,” without delving into the details of what that meant.

Persons: Beshear, Hadley Duvall, Duvall, Trump, Roe, Glenn Youngkin, — Organizations: Republican Party, Democratic, Court, Republicans, Republican, State Senate Locations: Kentucky, Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland, Virginia

Black voters are more disconnected from the Democratic Party than they have been in decades, frustrated with what many see as inaction on their political priorities and unhappy with President Biden, a candidate they helped lift to the White House just three years ago. New polls by The New York Times and Siena College found that 22 percent of Black voters in six of the most important battleground states said they would support former President Donald J. Trump in next year’s election, and 71 percent would back Mr. Biden. The drift in support is striking, given that Mr. Trump won just 8 percent of Black voters nationally in 2020 and 6 percent in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center. A Republican presidential candidate has not won more than 12 percent of the Black vote in nearly half a century. Mr. Biden has a year to shore up his standing, but if numbers like these held up across the country in November 2024, they would amount to a historic shift: No Democratic presidential candidate since the civil rights era has earned less than 80 percent of the Black vote.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump, Mr Organizations: Democratic Party, House, The New York Times, Siena College, Pew Research Center, Republican, Democratic

The Times/Siena College battleground polls released on Sunday and Monday were conducted over the past week in six swing states that are likely to decide the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Five of the states were won by Donald J. Trump in 2016 and then flipped by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. Nevada, which has always been a close state, came down to less than one percentage point in the 2022 U.S. Senate election. These states also contain some of the coalitions that will be crucial next fall: younger, more diverse voters in states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada; and white working-class voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin who helped swing the election to Trump in 2016, and were central to Mr. Biden’s 2020 victory. They also provide some geographic diversity.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Joseph R, Biden, Biden’s Organizations: Trump Locations: Siena, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, . Nevada, Nevada, Michigan , Pennsylvania

Now, as abortion restrictions and bans in red states have become reality, the issue is again on the ballot, both explicitly and implicitly, in races across the country. In Kentucky, Democrats are testing whether abortion can provide a political advantage even in a red state, as Gov. In Ohio, a socially conservative state, a ballot question that would enshrine abortion rights in the State Constitution will measure the extent of the country’s political pivot toward abortion rights. And in Virginia, the only Southern state without an abortion ban, Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, is trying to flip the script in the state’s legislative elections, casting Democrats as “extreme” and saying his party supports a “common-sense position” — a 15-week ban.

Persons: Roe, Wade, Andy Beshear, Roe —, Glenn Youngkin Organizations: Democrat, Republican Locations: In Kentucky, Ohio, State, Virginia

Erwin Chemerinsky, the dean of the law school at the University of California, Berkeley, said Republicans were mischaracterizing a complex, emotionally fraught issue to score political points. students, the university no doubt would crack down and make sure that this was a safe space for them on the college campuses,” Mr. Brooks said. “They’re not doing that for the Jewish students. Now they offer pathetic equivocation or, worse, deafening silence.”“They seem more offended by ‘microaggressions’ than by mass murder,” Mr. Scott said. “If this were any other minority group, hear me, the far left would be screaming from the rooftops.”

Persons: Biden, ” Jonathan Greenblatt, “, Israel ”, Erwin Chemerinsky, ”, Chemerinsky, Matt Brooks, Mr, Brooks, “ They’re, Tim Scott of, ‘ microaggressions, ” Mr, Scott Organizations: Justice Department, Department of Homeland Security, Defamation League, Democrats, Republicans provocatively, University of California, Fox News, Democratic Party, Republican Jewish Coalition, American Locations: Berkeley, Israel, Tim Scott of South Carolina

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