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☆ Column: South Korea's Gwangyang is the new LME aluminium battleground
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Andy Home | Thomson Reuters | Senior Metals Columnist Who Previously Covered Industrial Metals Markets For Metals Week | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - The South Korean port of Gwangyang has emerged as the new hub for storing London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium. Another 54,000 metric tons of aluminium have arrived in the intervening week, promising more turns of the storage carousel. LME aluminium stocks at Gwangyang and Port KlangGWANGYANG GRABS THE SPOTLIGHTA total 198,125 metric tons of aluminium were warranted at LME warehouses in Gwangyang in the first quarter of this year, most of it arriving in four single-day clips. Gwangyang LME aluminium stocks, arrivals and drawdownsRUSSIAN METAL NOW DOMINATESThe competition to store LME aluminium during periods of weak demand is not new. The Gwangyang aluminium storage wars may just be starting.

Persons: Gwangyang, ISTIM, Henry Bath, Sharon Singleton Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Glencore, ISTIM, Pac Global Services, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Gwangyang, Malaysia's Port Klang, Port, Rotterdam, Busan, South Korea, Port Klang, Malaysian, Detroit, Vlissingen, ISTIM

The great destock has resulted in a significantly slimmed-down LME warehouse network. The number of exchange-registered warehouse units has fallen by 151 over the last two years. LME storage space at the latter has grown by 35,000 square metres to 249,000 since the end of September last year. LME warehouse operator Istim has been expanding its presence, listing 24 units over the last year. But it's decidedly good news for LME warehouse operators.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, It's, Kloosterboer, Istim, Jane Merriman Organizations: London, Halley Metals, Pac Global Services, Infinity Logistics, HK, Rotterdam, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Krasnoyarsk, Siberian, Detroit, COVID, Ukraine, Spain, Antwerp, Vlissingen, Rotterdam, KOREA, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang, Busan, Incheon, Gwangyang, LME, Port Klang, China, United States, Europe

The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price has been oscillating in a $7,800-8,870 per metric ton range since May as old and new price drivers compete. The gyration in net positioning is partly a reflection of copper's own choppy range-trading with many black box funds configured to react to changes in directional momentum. Money managers have lifted outright short positions on CME copper to 69,707 contracts, the largest collective bear bet on lower prices since early 2020. The net short position of 18,127 contracts is a sign the bears are in the ascendancy. The key takeaway from speculative positioning on both U.S. and London markets is that fund players are betting bigger on copper.

Persons: Ricardo Moreno, San Pedro de Barva, Juan Carlos Ulate, Long, Copper, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, CME, Zhongrong International, Co, Fund, Thomson, Reuters Locations: San Pedro, Costa Rica, China, Beijing, London, United States, Europe

LME three-month zinc hit a near three-year low of $2,215 per metric ton in May. LME zinc price stocks and spreadsSQUEEZE DRAWS OUT HIDDEN METALThe trigger for the current spate of arrivals in the LME warehouse system appears to have been a sharp contraction in short-dated time-spreads earlier this month. If so, the game is on in Singapore, which has accounted for all the recent arrivals bar 1,000 metric tons at Malaysia's Port Klang. A total 31,500 metric tons of zinc were warranted in the city in July along with 5,125 metric tons of lead and 625 metric tons of tin. In the interim, there is plenty of potential for more metal to head towards LME storage sheds.

Persons: Ilya Naymushin, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, Citibank, Low, Study, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Angara, Novoangars, Russia, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang ., East Asia, China, Europe, Ireland

Copper prices have been range-bound in recent months after a January slide from their highest in more than seven months and a May rebound from a slump below $8,000 a metric ton. Analysts forecast a copper surplus this year of 111,000 metric tons, with oversupply rising to 188,000 tons next year. Analysts expect a market deficit this year of 191,750 metric tons, dropping to 66,000 tons in 2024. Analysts expect LME cash nickel prices to average $20,000 a metric ton in the fourth quarter, down 11% from the previous poll. They expect the global nickel market to show a surplus of 199,000 metric tons this year and 150,000 tons in 2024.

Persons: Dan Smith, Goran Djukanovic, Nguyen, Eric Onstad, Ananya, David Goodman Organizations: Amalgamated Metal Trading, Study, London Metal Exchange, Reuters, Indonesia, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, YUNNAN, Yunnan, Yunnan province, Indonesia, Commerzbank, London, Bengaluru

Norwegian producer Norsk Hydro (NHY.OL) has called for the exchange to reconsider its decision last November to continue accepting deliveries of Russian metal. China imported 462,000 metric tons of Russian-brand primary aluminium last year, up from 291,000 metric tons in 2021. The country has emerged as the market of first resort for Russian metal since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The top two destinations for June's "exports" were Japan (10,000 metric tons) and South Korea (20,500 metric tons). China's aluminium run-rate fell by an annualised 636,000 metric tons over the first quarter, according to the International Aluminium Institute.

Persons: Rusal, Goldman Sachs, ingot, isn't, Jane Merriman Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Norsk Hydro, Hydro, Rusal, International Aluminium Institute, AZ Global, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Norwegian, Russian, China, United States, Europe, Asia, Ukraine, Japan, South Korea, Gwangyang, CHINA, Yunnan

The steady stream of Chinese shipments has served to plug supply gaps in Western markets and helped replenish depleted London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks. China's export impulse is keeping the local market tight, which appears to be attracting a lot of speculative attention to the Shanghai lead contract. The three top destinations over the first half of 2023 were Taiwan (17,500 metric tons), Vietnam (16,100 metric tons) and Bangladesh (10,300 metric tons). LME STOCKS REBUILDSome of China's outbound shipments have been trickling into the LME warehouse system. ShfFE lead price, MOI and stocksCHINA TIGHTNESSWhile LME stocks have been rising, ShFE inventory has been sliding.

Persons: It's, Emelia Sithole Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, China, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Europe, United States, Asia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Kaohsiung, Singapore, Stolberg, MOI, CHINA, London

While there are no international sanctions on Russian metal, many consumers are shunning aluminium produced by Rusal (RUAL.MM), which accounts for 6% of global supplies. U.S. import tariffs on Russian aluminium and products are also prompting some consumers to "self-sanction". Some analysts estimate the discount for Russian aluminium at $100-$300 per metric ton, Norsk Hydro said. As LME aluminium prices are referenced in contracts between consumers, producers and traders, the dominance of Russian aluminium in the system is a problem, said Norsk Hydro's Chief Financial Officer Paal Kildemo. "There is still a risk that even more Russian aluminium will be delivered to LME further weighing on the reference price...

Persons: Paal Kildemo, Kildemo, Rusal, Pratima Desai, Polina Devitt, Eric Onstad, Veronica Brown, Jason Neely Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Norsk Hydro, Reuters, Britain's Financial, Authority, Norsk, Shanghai Futures Exchange, CME, Hydro, FCA, Thomson Locations: Norwegian

How much more will arrive in the market of last resort depends on China, which is stepping up imports of refined zinc. China's refined zinc imports, exports and net tradeCHINA FLIPS BACK TO NET IMPORTERChina imported 45,329 metric tons of refined zinc in June, the highest monthly tally since May 2021. The country exported 81,000 metric tons of zinc in 2022, including shipments of 7,800 metric tons to Mexico and 3,400 metric tons to the United States, two destinations that haven't in the past featured in China's zinc trade. The country's monthly refined zinc production has been notching double-digit growth rates since March. So far, however, there is scant evidence of a significant build of surplus metal in the mainland market.

Persons: It's, Paul Simao Organizations: London Metal Exchange, China, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai Metal, International, Study, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Singapore, Asian, contango, China, CHINA, Mexico, United States, backwardation, Shanghai, Europe, Antwerp

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Copper's electrical conductivity makes it a core component of the green energy transition, whether it be in the form of solar panels, electric vehicles or wind turbines. Which begs the question of where it might be if funds were collectively to buy into the green copper story. Fund positioning on the CME copper contractCHOPPY COPPERMoney manager net positioning on the CME copper contract has been flipping between long and short in recent weeks as LME copper chops around in a $8,140-8,870 range. China's recovery has disappointed copper bulls and funds shifted to the short side in May, coinciding with LME copper hitting the lower end of its trading range. Both volumes and open interest have perked up this year, but the driver appears to have been the China reopening story rather than the longer-term green energy narrative.

Persons: Conor Humphries Organizations: Citi, London Metal Exchange, CME, Traders, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China

LONDON/BEIJING, July 13 (Reuters) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) is looking to expand its commodities warehousing network outside China, and is examining systems and regulations in the sector overseas, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. China, the world's largest consumer and producer of industrial metals such as copper, wants domestic players to be able to exert more influence over prices, the sources said. To achieve that, two of the sources said, it launched an international copper futures contract in November 2020 on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE). KEY DIFFERENCESSources say there are a couple of major differences between the way warehousing works in China and the rest of the world. Outside China, metal is insured by its owner and the warehouse company is typically only liable if it was proved negligent.

Persons: ShFE, Pratima Desai, Veronica Brown, Jan Harvey Organizations: LONDON, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters, bourse, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai International Energy Exchange, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, South East, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, United States, Europe, Asia, The London, LME, Singapore, Thailand, South East Asia

Metal has been arriving almost daily in response to a sharp squeeze across the front part of the LME tin curve. LME and ShFE tin stocksLME SQUEEZE, BUT NO PHYSICAL TIGHTNESSThe tightness on the LME tin contract does not seem to have reflected any shortage of tin in the physical market. The LME squeeze appears to have been more a clash of positioning in what can at times be a relatively illiquid market. Fund positioning on the LME tin contractSUPPLY DISRUPTION LOOMSWhile tin supply has recovered from early-year disruption in Indonesia and Peru, a new threat is now looming. From the start of next month, all tin mining will be suspended in the Wa region of Myanmar.

Persons: It's, Jan Harvey Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, U.S, Fastmarkets, Fund, United Wa State Army, International Tin Association, Yinman, Yunnan Tin Company, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Myanmar, Malaysia's Port Klang, Singapore, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Italian, Genoa, Trieste, Spanish, Bilbao, Baltimore, U.S, Midwest, COVID, Indonesia, Peru, Wa, Guangxi, Mongolia, Yunnan, China

☆ Credit Suisse gives its top stock picks for the second half
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a strong first half for the stock market, Credit Suisse has an idea to keep the gains going. Now, questions swirl around if the market can continue its ascent as the second half of 2023 kicks into high gear. Credit Suisse asked every one of its U.S. research analysts to name their top stock picks when looking at the next six to 12 months. His price target implies shares could rally nearly 35% over the next year. International Game Technology also made the list, with analyst Ben Chaiken expecting big upside ahead even after a strong first half.

Persons: Stocks, Alcoa, Curt Woodworth, Woodworth, Refinitiv, Ben Chaiken, Judah Frommer, Frommer, MasTec, Jamie Cook, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Credit Suisse, Nasdaq, Technology

☆ Goldman Sachs says rising EV usage to power higher copper demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

July 6 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said rising usage of electric vehicles (EV) was a "key pillar of copper's bullish story", forecasting copper demand from the sector to amount to 1 million tonnes (mt) this year, rising to 1.5 mt in 2025. Last year, EV production accounted for about two-thirds of the increase in global copper demand, with EVs likely accounting for about 27% of additional copper consumption over the next decade, the bank said. Goldman said its analysts were optimistic about EVs, anticipating "strong sales in China, driven by lower prices and a high demand for EVs that has been building up over the rest of 2023." Benchmark copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) lost 7.5% in the second quarter of 2023 due to a slow recovery in demand in China and concerns over global economic growth. However, copper usage in EVs could fall in the longer term, with the amount of copper used per EV likely falling to 65 kg per unit by 2030, compared with 73 kg in 2022, the bank said.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Anushree Ashish Mukherjee, David Holmes Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Thomson Locations: EVs, China, Bengaluru

The London Metal Exchange (LME) index of base metals has sunk from a January high of 4,356 to 3,704. LME metals relative performance in H1 2023RELATIVE WEAKNESSOnly one core LME metal bucked the generally weaker trend in the first half of the year. Not that you would know it from LME nickel stocks, which fell by 16,872 metric tons, or 32%, over the first six months of 2023. LME copper stocks also fell by 18,850 metric tons over the first half of the year to 69,700 metric tons, half of which is cancelled and awaiting physical load-out. Indeed, LME zinc stocks have seen heightened cancellation activity over the last couple of weeks with 20% of registered inventory now awaiting load-out.

Persons: Tin, Sweden's, Goldman Sachs, Alexander Smith Organizations: PMI, London Metal Exchange, Citi . Grid, Citi, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, Europe, United States, Ireland, CHINA

LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - There's a renewed scramble for copper sitting in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses. Headline LME copper stocks have slid from 100,100 tonnes to 77,050 over the last three weeks despite almost 30,000 tonnes of arrivals. The drain on LME copper stocks is puzzling given weakening manufacturing activity in both Europe and the United States. It wouldn't be the first time that the LME stocks signal has been refracted, and the lower the stocks, the easier it is to bend the light. The Shanghai exchange has experienced tightness across the front part of the curve since March, with time-spreads now also the widest since November.

Persons: Boliden's, Copper, Jan Harvey Organizations: London Metal Exchange, LME, U.S ., CME, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai Futures, ShFE's, International Energy Exchange, Shanghai Metal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, U.S, London, ShFE, INE, Shanghai, China, Asia

A net 1,400 lots of short positions were covered by the time the market was suspended at 08:15. Xiang Guangda, the charismatic head of China's Tsingshan Holding Group, has attracted much media attention for being the big nickel short. The existence of at least once big nickel short wasn't exactly a secret in the market. LME nickel crisis had turned into potential LME clearing house crisis with Chamberlain having to juggle both parts of the meltdown while also being a nickel market specialist. The handful that remained, as one participant later recalled, knew nothing whatsoever about what was going on in the nickel market so decided to call everyone else back into the room.

Persons: Elliott, Street, Matthew Chamberlain, Chamberlain, Jane Street, Oliver Wyman's, Xiang Guangda, wasn't, Oliver Wyman, John Maynard Keynes, Xiang, doesn't, David Evans Organizations: London, Royal, of Justice, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, Elliott Associates, Jane, Global, Tsingshan Holding, SEE, Bloomberg, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Ukraine

☆ Exclusive: Gerald Group's 'tin concentrate' bought in Brazil revealed to be sand
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Pratima Desai | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The trader supplies tin concentrate to the Thai smelter Thaisarco, which does not price or pay for the material until after it has arrived and been authenticated. Fifty containers would hold 1,250 metric tonnes of tin concentrate and Brazilian concentrate would yield 875 tonnes of metal. In addition to selling tin to Thaisarco, Gerald typically sends tin concentrate to Malaysia Smelting Corp (MSCB.KL) to turn into metal in a process known as tolling. Tin concentrate from Brazil typically contains about 70% metal. With regional variations, tin concentrate also contains byproducts or impurities such as iron, antimony, bismuth, lead and silver.

Persons: Gerald Group, Gerald, Andrew Davies, Pratima Desai, Veronica Brown, Barbara Lewis, Catherine Evans Organizations: Reuters, London Metal Exchange, Malaysia Smelting Corp, Geological Survey, Thomson Locations: Brazil, Asia, London, Thaisarco

LONDON, June 20 (Reuters) - The closure of the Tara zinc mine in Ireland tells you how far the price of the galvanising metal has fallen over the last year. The closure is unlikely to alleviate the immediate over-supply of zinc concentrates but it is a sharp reminder for the market that the zinc price is teetering on the edge of the mining production cost curve. LME zinc price, stocks and spreadsTARA'S PERFECT STORMTara Mines, based in County Meath, is "currently cash flow negative due to a combination of factors including operational challenges, a decline in the price of zinc, high energy prices and general cost inflation", Boliden said. "The zinc market seems to be very volatile at the moment," Nystrom said, which is an understatement given the scale of the price collapse over the last 15 months. But Tara's suspension is a wake-up call that after a year of worrying about smelters, zinc traders need to start worrying about zinc mines as well.

Persons: Tara, Boliden, Mines, Gunnar Nystrom, Ireland's, " Nystrom, Morgan Stanley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Ireland's RTE, Shanghai Metal Markets, Fastmarkets, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ireland, County Meath, Europe, China, Shanghai, London

London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin has been treading water in a $23,700-26,800 range since the start of May. Although the demand outlook remains subdued, tin supply is facing two big threats, one from Myanmar and one from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter. Global tin supply, meanwhile, is now improving after an early-year drop in Indonesia shipments. Refined tin production fell year-on-year in May and Guangxi China Tin Group, the world's sixth-largest tin producer, has just announced a 40-50 day maintenance break from the end of this month, according to the ITA. Indonesia currently only has enough downstream capacity to absorb 5% of its domestic tin production, meaning that any restrictions will likely come in phases.

Persons: Minsur, International Tin Association . Tin, It's, David Evans Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Global, Shanghai Futures Exchange, U.S, Global Semiconductor, HIT, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, Local, United Wa State Army, International Tin Association ., ITA, Guangxi China Tin Group, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Midwest, London, imploding, Myanmar, Indonesia, Peruvian, United States, Europe MYANMAR, Wa, China, Wa State, Guangxi China, INDONESIA

☆ Online healthcare portal WebMD to acquire ASX-listed Limeade
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

June 9 (Reuters) - ASX-listed Limeade (LME.AX) said on Friday it will be acquired by WebMD in an all-cash deal with an enterprise value of A$112 million ($75.21 million). Shareholders of the U.S.-based software-as-a-service firm will receive A$0.425 per share from WebMD, a premium of 325% to Limeade's last closing price. After the acquisition is completed, Limeade will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of WebMD, the company said. The software provider said the transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2023. ($1 = 1.4892 Australian dollars)Reporting by Nausheen Thusoo in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra EluriOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Limeade, Nausheen, Krishna Chandra Organizations: WebMD, Thomson Locations: U.S, WebMD, Bengaluru

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is once again looking to shine more light on what lies in the shadows of its warehousing system. The exchange's daily stocks reports offer a rare hard data point in a murky statistical landscape for metal traders. LME stocks are flatlining but is this down to the market or changed market behaviour? Traders will game any system they come up against but the current LME stocks reporting regime makes it too easy. Restoring trust in exchange stocks reporting is a key step in winning back the broader confidence of the market.

Persons: it's, Mark Potter Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, Shanghai Futures, Traders, CME, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Malaysia's Port Klang, Singapore, Shanghai

Western lead buyers remain reliant on China's exports to smooth out the global supply chain. WESTERN MARKET STILL TIGHTChinese inflows have helped nudge LME stocks higher. U.S. buyers are paying up to 20 cents/lb ($440 per tonne) over the LME cash price to secure spot metal, according to Fastmarkets. Europe, however, should fare better this year thanks to the restart of the Stolberg lead smelter in Germany. The difference between the pace of production and usage recovery explains the narrowing global supply gap this year.

Outright short positions have mushroomed by 68% to 58,157 contracts in the space of three weeks. Outright long positions have been scaled back to 41,987 contracts, almost half the level of the February peak when investors were betting on a full-throttle post-COVID recovery in China. Fund managers are now net short of CME copper to the tune of 16,170 contracts, the largest collective bear bet since August last year. Investment funds have slashed their net long positioning from 25,737 contracts on April 14 to just 4,813 contracts as of May 5. Investment funds slash LME copper long positions as mood turns bearishWEAK RECOVERYChina's recovery from the stringent zero-COVID policy of last year has so far fallen short of expectations from a metals perspective.

Disruptions may hit mine output, leading analysts to trim a forecast surplus for this year to 133,000 tonnes from 165,000 tonnes of oversupply in the previous poll. Analysts have marked up their estimates for an aluminium market surplus this year to 113,500 tonnes from 80,535 tonnes forecast in January. "Due to relentless mined nickel supply growth in Indonesia, and its broad-based nickel-bearing exports, we remain longer-term bears on the global nickel price," said Tom Price at Liberum. Analysts expect LME cash nickel prices to average $22,273 a tonne in the third quarter, down 11% from current levels. They also expect the global nickel market to see a surplus of 112,000 tonnes this year and an oversupply of 89,500 tonnes in 2024.

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