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☆ Greenback gains, Aussie jumps on RBA rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, June 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar gained against the euro and yen on Tuesday as investors focused on the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking rates, while the Aussie jumped after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised with a rate increase. “We’re waiting to see if inflation is going to provide some upside surprises,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. Fed funds futures traders see the Fed as likely to then resume rate increases, with a 65% chance of an at least 25 basis-point increase in July, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The euro was last down 0.15% against the dollar at $1.0694 and the greenback gained 0.06% to 139.64 yen . ========================================================Currency bid prices at 3:00PM (1900 GMT)Additional reporting by Samuel Indyk in London; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: “, ”, Edward Moya, we’re, Moya, Chris Turner, Samuel Indyk, Sharon Singleton, Chizu Organizations: YORK, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, New York Fed, Bank of, BoC, U.S, Canadian, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, London

☆ Dollar falls after weak services data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Monday on news that the U.S. services sector barely grew in May as new orders slowed, ending an initial rally sparked by strong jobs growth. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services industry, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. The dollar index fell to 104.00, down 0.13% on the day, after climbing as high as 104.40. The Aussie dollar edged higher before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is due to announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. "We expect the RBA to hike tomorrow and guide for more, leading to a ~25-bp upgrade to terminal rate pricing and a sharp AUD rally."

Persons: Bill Adams, Brian Daingerfield, Philip Jefferson, Daingerfield, Wells, Erik Nelson, Jack Boswell, Iain Withers, Kirsten Donovan, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Institute for Supply Management, Reuters, Comerica Bank, Reserve, NatWest Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Stamford , Connecticut, U.S, London

☆ Yields on bills due in June fall on debt deal optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 30 (Reuters) - Yields on Treasury bills that are due in early June dropped on Tuesday on optimism that Congress will pass a deal to raise the country's debt ceiling and avoid a potential default. Yields on Treasury bills that are due in early June had risen sharply on concerns that they will be a risk of not being repaid if the Treasury runs out of cash. Yields on bills that are due on June 1 fell to 5.09%, after reaching 7.47% last Thursday. Yields on bills due on June 6 fell to 5.43%, from a high of 7.49% last week. Reporting by Karen Brettell, editing by Ed OsmondOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar gains, euro dips after cautious ECB
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 4 (Reuters) - The dollar gained against the euro after the European Central Bank eased its pace of rate hikes, a day after the Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 basis points and indicated that it may pause further increases. The Fed on Wednesday dropped from its policy statement language saying that it "anticipates" further rate increases would be needed. The dollar index was last up 0.30% on the day at 101.52. The greenback was last down 0.17% against the Norwegian crown at 10.73 after Norway's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. ========================================================Currency bid prices at 10:18AM (1418 GMT)Reporting by Rae Wee Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar dips as producer prices cool, euro hits one-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, April 13 (Reuters) - The dollar fell and the euro hit a one-year high against the U.S. currency on Thursday after producer prices fell last month, adding to expectations that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in March and core prices dipped 0.1%. The euro reached $1.10470, the highest since April 4, 2022, and was last at $1.1032, up 0.32% on the day. The dollar index fell to 101.10, the lowest since April 2. ========================================================Currency bid prices at 8:46AM (1246 GMT)Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Angus MacSwanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar drops as inflation cools more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In the 12 months through March, the CPI increased 5.0%, the smallest year-on-year gain since May 2021. Economists at Goldman Sachs said after the data that they no longer expect the Fed to raise rates in June. The dollar index fell 0.60% on the day to 101.49 and is down from around 102.11 before the data. The dollar dipped to 133.13 Japanese yen , down 0.47% on the day, from around 133.85 before the data. Retail sales data on Friday will be analyzed next for how consumer spending is being affected by higher prices.

☆ Dollar dips ahead of inflation data due Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Tuesday as investors waited on inflation data for further signs of whether price pressures are ebbing and what it means for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Consumer price data on Wednesday is expected to show headline inflation rose by 0.2% in March, while core inflation rose 0.4%. (USCPI=ECI), (USCPF=ECI)"A lot of traders are focused on this inflation data," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. Strong jobs data for March have added to expectations that the U.S. central bank will complete one more rate hike. European bond yields rose sharply on Tuesday, catching up after the break.

☆ Dollar gains on Fed rate hike bets, yen dips on Ueda comments
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar index was last up 0.67% against a basket of currencies at 102.68, the highest since April 3. The latest Fed data shows that commercial and industrial loans at commercial banks dropped to $2.756 trillion in the week ending March 29, from $2.824 trillion in the week ending March 15. Fed funds futures traders are currently pricing in a 70% probability that the Fed will hike rates by an additional 25 basis points at its May 2-3 meeting. The greenback was last up 1.00% at 133.45 yen , the highest since April 3. ========================================================Currency bid prices at 9:44AM (1344 GMT)Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Kirsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ As hawkish Fed pricing goes away, bullish dollar calls fade
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The moves come as investors rush for safe havens and adjust for a less aggressive Fed in the wake of the bank failures. “The market is basically saying that the Fed is done here,” said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. Some banks, including Goldman Sachs and NatWest Markets, have also said they no longer expect the Fed to raise rates this month. Traders are also pricing for the Fed to cut rates this year, with the fed funds rate expected to fall to 3.80% in December, from 4.57% now. “From a dollar perspective, that’s very important because the resetting of Fed expectations ever higher was a big part of the dollar rally we had seen before these moves,” he added.

☆ Dollar jumps as Powell flags higher terminal rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Powell also said that the Fed is prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes if data indicates it is warranted. That comes after the bank slowed the pace of its tightening to 25 basis points at its last two meetings, following larger hikes last year. "Powell is explicitly talking about a higher target for interest rates. Fed funds futures traders raised bets that the Fed will hike rates by 50 basis points at its March 21-22 meeting to 56% after Powell's comments. A 25 basis points increase is now seen as a 44% probability.

☆ Dollar dips, Powell testimony and jobs data in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index has bounced off a nine-month low of 100.80 reached on Feb. 1 as strong data and still-high inflation leads investors to reprice for higher rates for longer. Data on Monday showed that new orders for U.S.-manufactured goods fell in January, pulled down by a plunge in civilian aircraft bookings. Powell’s testimony will be watched for any new signals on whether the U.S. central bank could reaccelerate the pace of rate hikes in response to the recent data. The Chinese yuan and Aussie dollar fell after China on Sunday set a lower-than-expected target for economic growth this year of around 5%. The dollar gained 0.15% to 136.02 yen ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday.

☆ Analysis: Rebounding yields could scuttle U.S. stock rally as Powell stays firm on rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 1.3% along with a 6 basis points rise in the 10-year U.S. benchmark Treasury yield . yields vs stocksHigher bond yields dull the relative appeal of stocks while raising companies’ borrowing costs. Higher Treasury yields can also weaken the valuations of equities in standard valuation models, particularly for tech and other companies that rely on future profits that are discounted at higher rates when yields rise. Meanwhile, some investors are not yet worried about the threat to stocks from yields. Jacobsen is bullish on growth stocks, which were squashed by higher yields last year but have staged a strong rebound in 2023.

☆ Dollar falls to nine-month low as Powell notes progress in disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The dollar extended losses on Wednesday and fell to a nine-month low against a basket of currencies after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke of making progress in bringing down inflation pressures, even as the U.S. central bank warned of further monetary policy tightening. He also noted progress on disinflation, which he said is in its early stages, and said the Fed will continue to make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. The Fed's last "dot plot" in December showed that Fed officials expected the rate to rise above 5%. The dollar fell as low as 101.03 against a basket of currencies , the lowest since April 22. (USAVGE=ECI), (USAVHE=ECI)The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England are both expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday.

☆ Dollar gains as central banks take central stage
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hike interest rates by an additional 25 basis points this week, and investors will be watching for any new indications on how many more rate increases are likely. The question now is "does the dollar bounce or is this a nesting pattern before the next leg down," Chandler said. The euro fell 0.22% to $1.0844, erasing earlier gains after Spain's consumer prices rose 5.8% on a year-on-year basis in January, the first increase in six months. The dollar rose 0.57% against the Japanese yen to 130.53 . The BoE and ECB are both expected to raise rates by 50 basis points each this week.

☆ Fewer Treasury bills and liquidity questions – what to expect from the U.S. refunding
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Jan 26 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department next week is likely to announce that it will offer fewer Treasury bills in the second quarter, after hitting its statutory borrowing limit. Next week, the Treasury is likely to say that it will reduce its issuance of Treasury bills, debt that matures in one year or less, and run down its cash balance to buy more time. That is because the U.S. government wants to increase bills as a percentage of overall debt to meet its long-term goals. BofA’s Swiber said that Treasury buybacks, which the Treasury queried dealers about in a previous survey, are a better solution to boost liquidity during times of market stress. These “allow Treasury to more directly manage Treasury liquidity, to more directly manage the outstanding supply of securities and they can effectively buy back things that are cheap on the curve and help support liquidity in the more liquid parts of the curve as well,” she said.

Here are some key moments in the months ahead:FEB. 1The Treasury Department will release a quarterly document next week laying out how it plans to fund the government over the next three months. The document, which includes information on debt the Treasury will issue, could shed light on the timing of a possible default. Data regarding government income could be an important factor in determining the so-called "X date," or the day when the government will stop paying its bills. Normally, these funds would be reinvested, but the Treasury Department has said it could use the proceeds to help make needed payments. JULY-OCTOBERMost analysts see the true X date occurring somewhere between July and October.

☆ Stocks rise, dollar stumbles after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 7, 2022. U.S consumer prices fell in December for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years as prices fell for gasoline and other goods, suggesting inflation was on a sustained downward trend. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a signal of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% and then rebounding. Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ Stocks climb, dollar falls after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Still, a separate reading on the labor market showed weekly initial jobless claims came in at 205,000, below expectations of 215,000. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a key sign of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% before rebounding. Richmond Federal Reserve president Tom Barkin echoed the sentiment about the data and said it allowed the Fed to "steer more deliberately". Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ Stocks gain, yields fall after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Still, a separate reading on the labor market showed weekly initial jobless claims came in at 205,000, below expectations of 215,000. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a key sign of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% before rebounding. "The fact that we have seen core inflation decelerate to 5.7% year-over-year, from 6% in November, reinforces the peak inflation argument." Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

The Bank of England also raised its key interest rate by a further half-percentage point on Thursday and indicated more hikes were likely. "Both the Fed and ECB delivering more hawkish rate steers are compounding recession fears," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. Powell was also particularly hawkish in his comments, noting that ongoing rate hikes are appropriate to get sufficiently restrictive. In afternoon trading, the dollar rose to two-week highs against the yen, and last traded up 1.6% at 137.665 . Sterling also fell sharply as investors believe the BOE is nearing the end of its rate hikes.

☆ Stocks regain some lost ground as investors interpret U.S. payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 jobs last month compared with economist expectations for 200,000 jobs. "That sentiment shift has been more powerful than any 'negativity' to be taken from today's jobs report," he said. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.15% on the day but added 1.5% for the week. Earlier it had jumped sharply in response to the jobs data, gaining as much as 0.82%. Gold prices also regained some lost ground from their earlier reaction to the jobs data.

☆ Dollar rebounds on Fed expectations, Aussie drops
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The dollar index has fallen to 106.65 from a 20-year high of 114.78 on Sept. 28 on expectations that its rally may have been over stretched and as the Fed looks to slow its pace of rate increases. The greenback was also likely supported after the dollar index reached the 200-day moving average at 105.369. The dollar had dipped earlier on Monday despite other safe-haven currencies the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc gaining on concerns about China. The risk sensitive Aussie dollar , which is strongly tied to Chinese growth, was the worst performing major currency, falling 1.61% to $0.6649.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) for example had risen more than 10% in the last month and almost 20% since September. "Some of this is just a bit of consolidation from the last few weeks," she said, noting that stocks had taken a leg lower when Treasury yields gained and oil prices switched from red to green on Monday as the prospect of higher oil prices brought inflation concerns back to the forefront. Along with inflation trends, investors are also monitoring Federal Reserve commentary for any clues on its future rate hiking path. Earlier, U.S. crude oil futures had fallen to December 2021 levels on concerns about demand in China - the world's biggest crude importer. A view of a giant display of stock indexes, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Shanghai, China, October 24, 2022.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) slipped 0.50% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.71%. Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) dropped 0.94%. In currencies, the safe-haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen gained, while the Aussie dollar and Chinese yuan underperformed. CHINA FEARSIn Treasuries Benchmark 10-year notes were down 2.8 basis points to 3.674%, from 3.702% late on Friday. The 30-year bond was last down 2.7 basis points to yield 3.725%, from 3.752%, while the 2-year note was down 3.9 basis points to yield 4.4402%.

☆ Traders on intervention watch as yen hits 150, pound gains as Truss resigns
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The fragile yen briefly weakened past 150 per dollar for the first time since August 1990. It was last trading at 149.76 yen per dollar. This has sent U.S. yields and the dollar higher, particularly against the yen as the Bank of Japan is committed to keeping interest rates near zero. The pound rallied ahead of the announcement, before paring gains and then again moving higher. The dollar index dipped 0.50% against a basket of major currencies to 112.40, which analysts said was likely due to consolidation.

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