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The Biden administration is increasingly concerned that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is gathering enough momentum to change the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. Credit... Nanna Heitmann for The New York Times
Persons: Biden, Vladimir V, Putin, Nanna Heitmann Organizations: The New York Locations: Russia, Ukraine
Just 18 months ago, White House and Pentagon officials debated whether Russia’s forces in Ukraine might collapse and be pushed out of the country entirely. Now, after months of slow Russian ground advances and technological leaps in countering American-provided arms, the Biden administration is increasingly concerned that President Vladimir V. Putin is gathering enough momentum to change the trajectory of the war, and perhaps reverse his once-bleak prospects. In recent days, Moscow’s troops have opened a new push near the country’s second-biggest city, Kharkiv, forcing Ukraine to divert its already thinned-out troops to defend an area that it took back from Russian forces in a stunning victory in the fall of 2022. Artillery and drones provided by the United States and NATO have been taken out by Russian electronic warfare techniques, which came to the battlefield late but have proven surprisingly effective. And a monthslong debate in Washington about whether to send Ukraine a $61 billion package of arms and ammunition created an opening that Russia has clearly exploited, even though Congress ultimately passed the legislation.
Persons: Biden, Vladimir V, Putin Organizations: Pentagon, Artillery, NATO Locations: House, Ukraine, Kharkiv, United States, Washington, Russia
After Hamas attacked Israel in October, igniting the Gaza war, Israeli leaders described the group’s most senior official in the territory, Yahya Sinwar, as a “dead man walking.” Considering him an architect of the raid, Israel has portrayed Mr. Sinwar’s assassination as a major goal of its devastating counterattack. Seven months later, Mr. Sinwar’s survival is emblematic of the failures of Israel’s war, which has ravaged much of Gaza but left Hamas’s top leadership largely intact and failed to free most of the captives taken during the October attack. Even as Israeli officials seek his killing, they have been forced to negotiate with him, albeit indirectly, to free the remaining hostages. Mr. Sinwar has emerged not only as a strong-willed commander but as a shrewd negotiator who has staved off an Israeli battlefield victory while engaging Israeli envoys at the negotiating table, according to officials from Hamas, Israel and the United States. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence assessments of Mr. Sinwar and diplomatic negotiations.
Persons: Yahya Sinwar, Sinwar’s, Sinwar, Sinwar — Locations: Israel, Gaza, United States, Egypt, Qatar
Israeli leaders declared on Thursday that they would not be deterred by President Biden’s threat to withhold more arms shipments if the military launched a major assault on densely populated areas of Rafah in southern Gaza. Defiant and at times disdainful of the Biden administration’s stance, their comments made clear the widening rift between Israel and the United States over the war and the prospect of a full-scale invasion of Rafah, where about a million Palestinians are sheltering. And they came as high-level negotiations aimed at reaching a cease-fire and hostage deal were derailed — at least for the moment — amid anger by some of the participants over a military incursion into Rafah by Israeli forces earlier this week. After that incursion, Mr. Biden said the United States, Israel’s closest ally, would not ship more weapons that could be fired into crowded sections of Rafah. On Thursday, an Israeli military spokesman said his nation had enough munitions on hand to proceed with its plans.
Persons: Biden’s, Biden Locations: Rafah, Gaza, Israel, United States
The officials said that the changes were made by Arab mediators in consultation with William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, and that the new version keeps a key phrase, the eventual enactment of a “sustainable calm,” wording that all sides had said earlier they could accept. The two officials said the response from Hamas was a serious one, and that it was now up to Israel to decide whether to enter into an agreement. In the second phase, the two sides would work toward reaching a “sustainable calm,” which would involve the release of more hostages, the officials said. The officials said that Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was expected to push back against that definition.
Persons: William J, Burns, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: Hamas Locations: Israel, United States, Gaza
American officials are trying to increase international pressure on Russia not to deploy an antisatellite nuclear weapon in space, and have obtained information that undermines Moscow’s explanation that the device it is developing is for peaceful scientific purposes, a senior State Department official said on Friday. Concern over the Russian development of a new generation of space nuclear weapons has been growing in Washington, especially since Moscow’s veto last month of a U.N. measure aimed at keeping space free of such weapons. Some Republicans believe that the Biden administration is not doing enough to deter Russian work on the device, and others are concerned about China’s apparent decision not to pressure Moscow to stop. On Friday, Mallory Stewart, the assistant secretary of state for arms control, said that while the United States had been aware of Russia’s pursuit of such a device for years, “only recently have we been able to make a more precise assessment of their progress.”Ms. Stewart, speaking at the nonpartisan Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the orbit the Russian satellite would occupy is in a high-radiation region not used by other satellites, information that undercuts Russia’s defense that it is not developing a weapon.
Persons: Biden, Mallory Stewart, , Ms, Stewart Organizations: State Department, Strategic, International Studies Locations: Russia, Washington, Moscow, United States
covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades.
Organizations: The Times
Israel’s military operations in Gaza have weakened Hamas. Thousands of its members have been killed, and at least one senior military leader has been eliminated. Yet Israel has not achieved its primary goals of the war: freeing hostages and fully destroying Hamas. The war and the tactics of the Israel Defense Forces have come at a great cost. Vast numbers of Palestinian civilians have been killed in the Israeli campaign; hunger is widespread in Gaza; and deaths around relief efforts have generated condemnation.
Persons: Israel Organizations: Hamas, Israel Defense Forces, Israel Locations: Gaza, Israel
The United States is considering imposing sanctions on one or more Israeli battalions accused of human rights violations during operations in the occupied West Bank, according to a person familiar with the deliberations. Mr. Netanyahu said in a social media post that his government would “act by all means” against any such move. The news about the possible sanctions, reported earlier by Axios, came only a day after the House approved $26 billion for Israel and humanitarian aid for civilians in conflict zones, including Gaza. The sanctions, if imposed, would not hold up the military aid that was just approved in Congress. On Sunday, Palestinians in the West Bank went on a general strike to protest a deadly Israeli military raid at a refugee camp.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Mr, Netanyahu, Axios Organizations: West Bank, Biden, Sunday Locations: States, Gaza, Israel
Negotiations for a cease-fire and the release of Israeli hostages have stalled because Hamas rejected the latest proposal put forth by Israel, Qatar and Egypt, the C.I.A. director said Thursday, putting the blame for a lack of progress in talks squarely on the group that led the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. director and lead American negotiator, traveled to Cairo and pushed what he called “a far-reaching proposal” that Egyptian and Qatari negotiators took to Hamas. While Mr. Burns did not describe the details of that proposal, he said that so far Hamas has not accepted it. “It was a deep disappointment to get a negative reaction from Hamas,” said Mr. Burns, speaking at the George W. Bush Presidential Center in Dallas.
Persons: William J, Burns, C.I.A, , George W, Organizations: Hamas, Qatari, Bush Presidential Center, Sunday Locations: Israel, Qatar, Egypt, Cairo, Dallas, Gaza
China has been trying to find ways to gain access to critical infrastructure in the United States so that it can threaten those systems in the event of a conflict, the National Security Agency director said on Wednesday. and the U.S. military’s Cyber Command in February, said that Beijing had stepped up its cyberefforts and that the United States, in response, was working harder to disrupt that activity. Last year, U.S. officials uncovered an effort by China to gain access to critical infrastructure in Guam, home to U.S. military bases, and in the continental United States. Microsoft called the intrusions Volt Typhoon, after a Chinese network of hackers who often avoided using detectable malware and instead used stealthier techniques to enter wastewater systems and communication networks. “What you see in Volt Typhoon is an example of how China has approached establishing access to put things under threat,” General Haugh said at a security conference at Vanderbilt University.
Persons: Timothy D, Haugh, Organizations: National Security Agency, U.S, military’s, Command, Microsoft, Vanderbilt University Locations: China, United States, Beijing, Guam
Iran’s attack on Israel, an immense barrage that included hundreds of ballistic missiles and exploding drones, changed the unspoken rules in the archrivals’ long-running shadow war. In that conflict, major airstrikes from one country’s territory directly against the other had been avoided. Given that change in precedent, the calculus by which Israel decides its next move has also changed, said the Israeli officials who requested anonymity to discuss Iran. “We cannot stand still from this kind of aggression,” Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the spokesman for Israel’s military said on Tuesday. Iran, he added, would not get off “scot-free with this aggression.”
Persons: Israel, Daniel Hagari, “ scot, Locations: Israel, Iran
Even as president, Donald J. Trump flaunted his animosity for intelligence officials, portraying them as part of a politicized “deep state” out to get him. And since he left office, that distrust has grown into outright hostility, with potentially serious implications for national security should he be elected again. House Republicans agreed to move the legislation ahead on Friday only after revising it to ensure that Mr. Trump would get another crack at shaping it to his liking if he wins the presidency again. Indicted last year on charges of hoarding classified documents after leaving office and obstructing efforts to retrieve them, Mr. Trump has also translated his anger into legal arguments, telling a federal court that there is no reason to believe the “meritless claims” of agencies like the C.I.A. Intelligence agencies have shown a bias against Mr. Trump since the first impeachment against him, his lawyers have argued in the classified documents case, promising a fight if officials testify that his actions put the country at risk.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Organizations: Wednesday, House Republicans, Intelligence
The Summer Olympics and tensions over the war in Ukraine are likely to make Paris a tempting target for a variety of hacking attempts, including from adversarial countries, France’s top cybersecurity official said on Monday. French officials, including Mr. Strubel, are in Washington this week for consultations with cybersecurity officials. The Paris Olympics will run from July 26 to Aug. 11. The opening ceremony of the 2018 Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, was marred by a cyberattack that caused internet disruptions. Security companies quickly blamed Russia, and the Fancy Bear hacking group tied to Moscow’s intelligence services, for that attack.
Persons: Vincent Strubel, France’s, ransomware, Strubel Locations: Ukraine, Washington, Pyeongchang, South Korea, Russia
During the call, Mr. Biden threatened to condition future support for Israel on how it addresses his concerns about civilian casualties and the humanitarian situation in Gaza. The Israeli statement did not give a timing for when the crossing would be reopened. Mr. Biden has grown increasingly critical of Israel’s approach to the war against Hamas in Gaza, saying that more must be done to protect civilians. Image Palestinians gathering to receive food in the town of Jabaliya in northern Gaza last month. Israel has rejected accusations that it is responsible for delays in the delivery of aid.
Persons: Israel, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Jordan — “, Erez, Adrienne Watson, , , Netanyahu, , Ms, Watson, Mahmoud Issa, Kerem, Lloyd J, Austin III, Patrick Kingsley Organizations: Israel, National Security Council, United, Defense, Pentagon, International Court of Justice Locations: Gaza, Ashdod, Israel, United Nations, , Jabaliya, Kerem Shalom, Rafah, The Hague
During a 30-minute call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, President Biden went further than ever in pressing for change in the military operation. Credit... Fatima Shbair/Associated PressBy the middle of the night in Jerusalem, Israel made its first gestures to Mr. Biden. The reported agreement came as American officials held out the prospect of consequences if Mr. Netanyahu resisted. But Mr. Kirby would not outline specific metrics for judging Israel’s response or what Mr. Biden would do if not satisfied. Mr. Biden called himself “outraged and heartbroken” over the incident and made a point of calling Mr. Andrés to express his condolences.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, President Biden, Biden, Biden’s, , Netanyahu, , Fatima Shbair, Mr, Antony J, Blinken, ” Mr, Chris Coons, Coons, Kamala Harris, Jake Sullivan, Biden “, William J, Burns, Mohammed Saber, John F, Kirby, emboldening, John Hannah, José Andrés, Andrés, Zomi Frankcom, Damian Soból, Barack Obama, Bibi, ” Ben Rhodes, Obama, ” Jon Favreau, doesn’t, , , aggravation, Jill Biden, Joe, ” Julian E, Barnes, Katie Rogers, David E, Sanger, Lara Jakes Organizations: Israel, Hamas, Credit, Associated, U.S . National Security Council, NATO, Democratic, CNN, Republican, American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Iran, Central Kitchen, Shutterstock, Jewish Institute for National Security of America, Biden, Mr, Israel Defense Forces, White Locations: Gaza, Israel, Rafah, Jerusalem, Ashdod, Jordan, Brussels, Michigan, Washington, Delaware, Iran, Syria, United States, Cairo, “ Hamas, Haiti, Cyprus, U.S,
The U.S. warning to Russia ahead of a terrorist attack near Moscow was highly specific: Crocus City Hall was a potential target of the Islamic State, according to U.S. officials. The warning had the right venue but imprecise timing, suggesting that the attack could come within days. Indeed, the public warning by the United States Embassy on March 7 warned of potential terrorist attacks in the next two days. Gunmen stormed the hall on March 22, killing 144 people, the deadliest attack in Russia in nearly 20 years. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, and Russia charged four men from Tajikistan, accusing them of carrying out the massacre.
Persons: Vladimir V, Putin Organizations: Islamic, United States Embassy, Gunmen, Islamic State Locations: Russia, Moscow, Crocus, Islamic State, Tajikistan, Ukraine
Russia has intensified its online efforts to derail military funding for Ukraine in the United States and Europe, largely by using harder-to-trace technologies to amplify arguments for isolationism ahead of the U.S. elections, according to disinformation experts and intelligence assessments. In recent days, intelligence agencies have warned that Russia has found better ways to hide its influence operations, and the Treasury Department issued sanctions last week against two Russian companies that it said supported the Kremlin’s campaign. The stepped-up operations, run by aides to President Vladimir V. Putin and Russian military intelligence agencies, come at a critical moment in the debate in the United States over support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. While opposition to additional aid may have started without Russian influence, the Kremlin now sees an opportunity. Russian operatives are laying the groundwork for what could be a stronger push to support candidates who oppose aiding Ukraine, or who call for pulling the United States back from NATO and other alliances, U.S. officials and independent researchers say.
Persons: Vladimir V, Putin Organizations: Ukraine, Treasury Department, Russia, Kremlin, NATO Locations: Russia, United States, Europe, Russian, Ukraine
The United States collected intelligence in March that Islamic State-Khorasan, known as ISIS-K, the branch of the group based in Afghanistan, had been planning an attack on Moscow, according to officials. In addition to publicly warning on March 7 about a possible attack, U.S. officials said they had privately told Russian officials about the intelligence pointing to an impending attack. It is not clear how much information the United States gave Russian officials beyond what was in the public warning. Western intelligence agencies had collected intelligence about possible planning by ISIS-K to bomb the service. As in Russia, ISIS-K claimed responsibility for that attack.
Persons: , Vladimir V, Putin, Colin P, Clarke, Qassim Suleimani Organizations: Islamic State, United, ISIS, Soufan, Kremlin, United States Locations: Moscow, United States, State, Khorasan, Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, New York, Chechnya, Syria, Iran, U.S, United
The warning was related to the attack on Friday, according to people briefed on the matter. Pro-Kremlin voices immediately seized on the U.S. Embassy’s warning to paint America as trying to scare Russians. And he has been quick to accuse Ukraine of acts of terrorism to justify his invasion of the country. But I would disabuse you at this early hour of any connection to Ukraine.”“Our thoughts obviously are going to be with the victims of this terrible, terrible shooting attack,” he also said. Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukraine’s presidential office, said in a video statement that “Ukraine has absolutely nothing to do” with the attack.
Persons: Vladimir V, Putin, Mr, , John Kirby, Maria Zakharova, Washington, Mykhailo Podolyak, Aishvarya Kavi Organizations: U.S, Embassy, State Department, Kyiv, Biden’s National Security Council, White, Reuters, Locations: Moscow, America, Russia, Ukraine, Russian, U.S, Washington
The Kremlin has fired its top naval commander, the biggest fallout yet from a series of devastating attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, according to a Ukrainian and a Western official. Adm. Nikolai Yevmenov, the head of the Russian Navy for the past five years, was removed from command and replaced by the head of the Russia’s Northern Fleet. Russian publications, citing anonymous sources, reported on Sunday that Admiral Yevmenov had been fired. The Financial Times, citing Ukrainian officials, reported the development on Monday. U.S. officials have assessed that while Kyiv’s counteroffensive last year in eastern and southern Ukraine largely failed, its strikes on the Crimean Peninsula and attacks on the Black Sea Fleet were unexpectedly effective.
Persons: Adm, Nikolai Yevmenov, Yevmenov Organizations: Russian Navy, Fleet, Financial, Black Locations: Ukraine, Russia’s, Ukrainian, Crimean
A new American intelligence assessment released on Monday raised doubts about whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel could stay in power, as the C.I.A. director said a hostage deal was the most practical way to halt, at least temporarily, the war in Gaza. The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment expressed concerns about Israel’s vision for the end of the war and said that Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition “may be in jeopardy.”“Distrust of Netanyahu’s ability to rule has deepened and broadened across the public from its already high levels before the war, and we expect large protests demanding his resignation and new elections,” the report said. “A different, more moderate government is a possibility.”The report predicted that Israel would struggle to achieve its goal of “destroying Hamas.”“Israel probably will face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralize Hamas’s underground infrastructure, which allows insurgents to hide, regain strength and surprise Israeli forces,” the report said.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Netanyahu’s, , ” “ Locations: Gaza, Israel, ” “ Israel
Senior intelligence officials warned on Monday that without additional American aid, Ukraine faced the prospect of continued battlefield losses as Russia relies on a network of critical arms suppliers and drastically increases its supply of technology from China. In public testimony during the annual survey of worldwide threats facing the United States, the officials predicted that any continued delay of U.S. aid to Ukraine would lead to additional territorial gains by Russia over the next year, the consequences of which would be felt not only in Europe but also in the Pacific. “If we’re seen to be walking away from support for Ukraine, not only is that going to feed doubts amongst our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific; it’s going to stoke the ambitions of the Chinese leadership in contingencies ranging from Taiwan to the South China Sea,” William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, told Congress. The assessment marked a sharp turn from just a year ago, when Ukraine’s military appeared on the march and the Russians seemed to be in retreat.
Persons: ” William J, Burns Organizations: stoke Locations: Ukraine, Russia, China, United States, Europe, Taiwan, South China
Families and supporters of Israeli hostages held since the Oct. 7 attacks gathered Saturday in Tel Aviv to call for their return. International efforts to reach a truce had stalled over Israel’s refusal to release Palestinians convicted of murder and to commit to a permanent cease-fire, two of the measures that Hamas is holding out for. They include five female Israeli soldiers and civilians, including sick, wounded and older people. It does not include male Israeli soldiers, whose release will be the subject of a separate negotiation, one of the officials said. For each of the five female Israeli soldiers in captivity, Israel would release three “heavy” prisoners — those believed responsible for major attacks — and 15 others.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Yahya Sinwar, Israel, , Gilad Shalit, Julian E, Barnes Organizations: Hamas Locations: Tel Aviv, Israel, Gaza, U.S, Egypt, Qatar, United States, Paris, Washington
Iran has made a concerted effort to rein in militias in Iraq and Syria after the United States retaliated with a series of airstrikes for the killing of three U.S. Army reservists this month. Initially, there were regional concerns that the tit-for-tat violence would lead to an escalation of the Middle East conflict. But since the Feb. 2 U.S. strikes, American officials say, there have been no attacks by Iran-backed militias on American bases in Iraq and only two minor ones in Syria. Before then, the U.S. military logged at least 170 attacks against American troops in four months, Pentagon officials said. The relative quiet reflects decisions by both sides and suggests that Iran does have some level of control over the militias.
Organizations: U.S . Army, U.S, Pentagon Locations: Iran, Iraq, Syria
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