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The TGA is a liability on the Fed's balance sheet. This means that when the TGA goes down, reserves go up, effectively administering an injection of liquidity into the system. chartThis runs counter to the Fed's current stance of pursuing a tighter monetary policy, of which draining liquidity from the system via QT is a part. Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America, calculates that since the Fed's QT program got underway last May, the Fed's balance sheet has shrunk by $406 billion and the TGA has dropped $422 billion. "Fed QT to date has been largely absorbed by lower TGA," he and his team wrote in a recent note.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTop economist Joe Lavorgna on the biggest risk to the labor marketSMBC Nikko Securities America's Joe Lavorgna on what tomorrow's report means for the market and the Fed. With CNBC's Sara Eison and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIs the consumer really as strong as Black Friday sales suggest? Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko, on just how strong the consumer really is. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Dan Nathan, Karen Finerman, Guy Adami and Jeff Mills.
Four experts break down strong third-quarter U.S. GDP data
  + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFour experts break down strong third-quarter U.S. GDP dataAustan Goolsbee, former CEA chairman and Booth School of Business professor, Joe LaVorgna, former Trump White House economist and chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America, Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel, Nancy Davis, chief investment officer at Quadratic Capital Management, and CNBC's Rick Santelli join 'Squawk Box' to react to the latest third-quarter GDP data.
Updated projections from the Fed's Sept. 20-21 policy meeting show that rate-setters' outlook for the economy's equilibrium rate of interest rate over time remained 2.5%. Bearing in mind that the Fed's inflation target is 2.0%, this suggests that the real rate of interest - r-star (r*), the nebulous, inflation-adjusted interest rate that neither fuels nor curbs growth - is also unchanged at 0.5%. The fact it didn't suggests the Fed still sees sky-high inflation as ultimately 'transitory', albeit as a result of its punishing interest rate rises and more prolonged than it had previously anticipated. chartNEBULOUS RATEThe Fed's policy target rate is now 3.00%-3.25%, the highest since 2008, and the Fed's latest projections show it rising to the 4.25%-4.50% range by the end of this year and ending 2023 at 4.50%-4.75%. Steven Englander, head of FX strategy at Standard Chartered, suggests the neutral rate is perhaps 3.00%, maybe even higher.
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