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.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 this year Yet with it all, the S & P 500 managed three closes in a week above the 4200 level deemed by most to be the top of its range, before jumping 1.5% Friday to finish at 4282 – just half a percent below its August peak closing value. S & P 500 poised to break out The trip to 4300 today comes under quite different, and less malign, conditions. Back then there was still nearly 300 basis points of Fed tightening ahead of us and earnings forecasts were dropping fast. Even at the August stock-index highs, the CBOE S & P 500 Volatility Index was scarcely able to drop below 20 – typically a floor during bear markets. In the near term, the S & P 500 looks a bit stretched, the index pushing well above its trend channel – a sign both of respectable strength and temporary overheating.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Russell, Jeff DeGraaf, it's, Let's Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Fed, Renaissance Macro Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRenaissance's Jeff deGraaf weighs in on the believability of the market rallyJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Group, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss whether investors should believe in the rally or not.
Persons: Jeff deGraaf Organizations: Macro
After Friday's 0.8% lift, the S & P 500 is just a sliver below its Feb. 2 year-to-date high. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD The same dynamic is happening at the sector level, too. JP Morgan this year is outperforming the equal-weighted S & P 500 financials by 13 percentage points. "While breadth is bad, the S & P 500 is actually one of the weakest indices in the G7," he says. By the way, the top-heaviness of the index also extends to valuation: The equal-weighted S & P 500 is nearer to 15-times earnings.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Bears might have it completely wrong' on recession outlook, says Renaissance's Jeff DeGraafJeff DeGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research, and Ed Clissold, Ned Davis Research, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the domestic and global markets, recession fears, and a potential bull market.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPeople aren't listening closely enough to the market's message: Renaissance Macro's deGraafJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the charts guiding deGraaf's investing thesis, deGraaf's thoughts on the healthcare sector and the current relationship between stocks and bonds.
Some under-the-radar health-care stocks are unlikely attractive picks, according to Renaissance Macro Research chairman Jeff deGraaf. "From a cyclical standpoint even within the health-care sector, they're starting to break out." DeGraaf listed Stryker , Bruker and Boston Scientific as "good looking, long-term charts" thanks to both their discretionary spend and chart cyclicality within the health-care space. BRKR YTD mountain Healthcare equipment stocks are some of the most attractive picks in the overall sector, according to Renaissance Macro Research chief Jeff DeGraaf. Health-care stocks are often touted as defensive investments during economic turmoil and recessions thanks to their predictable earnings and steady consumer growth.
Did the "soft landing" occur six months ago, at least in market terms? The leadership profile speaks, perhaps, to an elongated economic and Fed tightening cycle and suggests where within a notably bifurcated market investors should migrate. For one thing, the stock market surely can be prone to misapprehending the next macro turn and can overshoot reality in the short term. BCA Research here shows the sobering harmony in the current market trajectory and that of the early-2000s post-tech-bubble bear market. We can note, though, that the S & P 500 back then never spent as much as a month above its 200-day moving average as it has this year.
Yet boring old bonds have just about kept pace, as investors rush to lock in healthy-seeming yields after one of the worst years ever for fixed-income returns. The Federal Reserve's historically aggressive tightening campaign last year gouged debt portfolios but quickly rebuilt the supply of safe yield on offer for today's buyers. I made the case for bonds' value from this perspective in a column here three months ago , just as Treasury yields were peaking. The good news is that "real yields," meaning yields above the market's implied outlook for inflation, remain positive. The American Association of Individual Investors' monthly asset allocation survey for December showed bonds at 14.3%, below the survey's long-term average of 16%.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraafJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman and head of technical research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss how the market is currently set up and the internal signals he is focusing on right now.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a reversion trade going on — I can't call the end of bear market, says Renaissance Macro's deGraafJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman and head of technical research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss how the market is currently set up and the internal signals he is focusing on right now.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRenaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf warns investors about year-end rallyJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss investors falling for the year end ‘FOMO’ rally.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Renaissance Macro Research chairman Jeff deGraafJeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research chairman, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss investors falling for the year end ‘FOMO’ rally.
Poor market sentiment helped position bulls for a rally
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPoor market sentiment helped position bulls for a rallyJeff Degraaf, research chairman with Renaissance Macro, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss poor market sentiment staging the space for a market rally, the importance of discretionary stock performance, and signs of strength in industrials.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUtilities do well in this kind of environment, says Renaissance Macro's deGraafJeff deGraaf of Renaissance Macro Research joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss how much further the Fed will go with raising rates and the impact it will have on the markets.
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