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After a record number of store closures in 2020, retailers have shuttered far fewer doors over the last two years, but that may be about to change, especially for department stores, according to UBS. He also said that he believes the lack of store closures has made it harder for retailers to grow sales. Compares got tougher in 2Q22 as the industry lapped the big store closures. Our view is tough compares remain a reason Department Store sales will remain under pressure in the 1H23." Instead, he said, many store closures that would have occurred in 2021 or 2022 were accelerated by the pandemic.
Sales are stalling in 2022, but department store closures have stayed flat since early 2021. "These trends are likely not good for department stores as both luxury companies as well as off-price retailers compete directly with department stores," UBS analysts Jay Sole, Mauricio Serna, Shoshana Pollack, and Tiffany Agard wrote. Department stores like Nordstrom and Kohl's were left with too many stores as consumer spending wanes. Things didn't improve for department stores during the start of the holidays shopping season. According to Commerce Department data, November department store sales were down nearly 3% from last year, and UBS analysts predict department store sales will "remain under pressure" in the first half of 2023.
The fashion company behind brands such as Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger should be in vogue for investors heading into 2023, UBS said Thursday. He said the market is too focused on macro and foreign exchange challenges to understand how PVH can drive relative outperformance compared to competitors. The main driver of its performance will be the "PVH+ Plan," which has the goal of making its brands premium, direct-to-consumer and global that move out of wholesale. On a more technical level, Sole said the company is also a top pick because of its "very attractive valuation." But he said fundamentals would improve along with the stock value, as the PVH+ Plan would help bring the operating margin up to 15% in 2025 from 8.5% in the 2022 fiscal year.
Here are answers to questions about the accusations the Trump Organization faces. WHAT IS THE TRUMP ORGANIZATION ACCUSED OF DOING? Trump Payroll Corp and the Trump Corporation have been charged with nine counts of scheme to defraud, conspiracy, tax fraud and other crimes. Lawyers for the Trump Organization have sought to shift the blame to Weisselberg, saying he cheated on his personal tax returns to benefit himself, not the company. Mazars cut ties with the Trump Organization this year.
Target on Wednesday reported that its profit fell by 50% as it tried to clear out excess inventory in the third quarter. To find a list of top-ranked retail stocks, CNBC Pro searched Tipranks for names in the sector rated at least a "strong buy" and with a more than 20% upside to the consensus price target. Callaway Golf has the largest upside to its consensus price target, with analysts saying it could surge more than 79% from where it currently trades. Jefferies boosted its price target on the name after its third-quarter earnings beat expectations and it raised its guidance for the fourth quarter. The company is strongly backed by Wall Street and has a more than 43% upside to its consensus price target as it's been beaten up this year.
Changes in Ralph Lauren 's business make the clothing brand a good investment coming out of the pandemic, according to UBS. "We view RL as a strong turnaround stock," Sole said in a note to clients. "We think the market doesn't appreciate the transformational changes the company has made to its brand, distribution model, and cost structure." The stock has performed nearly in line with the S & P 500 , shedding 19.7% this year. Sole said Ralph Lauren could soon reach pre-pandemic levels by rolling back promotions, improving its supply chain and lowering expenses.
Shares of Swiss footwear maker On can roughly double from here as its brand becomes a breakout hit globally, according to UBS. Analyst Jay Sole said his buy rating conviction in the stock increased after reviewing the results from a UBS global athletic survey that suggested On could outperform in a crowded market. "UBS Evidence Lab's 2022 Global Athletic Survey reveals the On brand is gaining traction with global consumers. According to a UBS survey, On ranks fifth globally among consumers as a brand that is "good for doing sports," a characteristic the analyst expects is "key to its future success." UBS surveyed 5,500 representative consumers from the US, China, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, according to the note.
His plea agreement requires him to testify at the trial against the Trump Organization, which operates hotels, golf courses and other real estate around the world. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterJury selection is scheduled to begin on Monday in Manhattan state court. The Trump Organization could face up to $1.6 million in fines for the three tax fraud counts and six other counts that were brought. The company's lawyers also said prosecutors presented no evidence to the grand jury that returned the indictment that the Trump Organization evaded payroll taxes. Two other Trump Organization employees received compensation in the form of lodging and car leases, prosecutors said.
Watch CNBC's full interview with UBS's Jay Sole
  + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with UBS's Jay SoleJay Sole, retail analyst at UBS, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the negative impacts inflation could have on the apparel retail industry during the upcoming holiday season, pointing to difficulties with surplus in inventory and congested supply chains.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHoliday spending forecasts for retail show ongoing inflationary troubles, saysJay Sole, retail analyst at UBS, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the negative impacts inflation will have on the apparel retail industry during the upcoming holiday season, pointing to difficulties with surplus inventory and congested supply chains.
Retailers and their finance chiefs are facing a challenge balancing consumer expectations for discounts and the need to keep raising prices to offset high inflation. With more discounts available and additional inventory being sold through off-price retailers, consumers are expecting to find good deals when they go shopping, executives said. Last month, the average discount at such retailers was 16%, up from 15% a year earlier, UBS said. That is prompting competitors—including those that don’t have too much inventory—to fine-tune their pricing strategies, offering discounts to stay competitive even as they grapple with higher costs. The company’s operating margin fell to 15% from 18.1% a year earlier, according to FactSet, a data provider.
UBS said the inventory problem at retailers is worse than investors are expecting, and identified some stocks that will be hardest hit. 2) The Street's 3Q and 4Q gross margin estimates look too high," analyst Jay Sole wrote in a note Wednesday. The findings are an ugly surprise for some investors who expected retailers would resolve inventory issues after the first quarter this year, according to UBS. "Since the industry's sales/inventory spread has deteriorated, we believe the industry's gross margin trend should deteriorate too in Q3. Kohl's inventory jumped at the end of the second quarter, up 48% from the end of the second quarter in 2021, because of lower sales.
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