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Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius on Friday said he still expects the Federal Reserve to implement three interest rate cuts, adding that he would be "very surprised" if the U.S. central bank ultimately decided no trims at all were necessary. His comments come shortly after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari became the latest high-profile official to float the possibility of zero rate cuts before the year's end, if inflation remained sticky. "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all," Kashkari said on Thursday during an interview with Pensions & Investments. Separately, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier in the week that it would take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, leaving the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain. Speaking to CNBC's Steve Sedgwick on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti Forum on Friday, Goldman Sachs' Hatzius said he was bullish on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Persons: Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Steve Sedgwick, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, I'm, we've Organizations: Reserve, Minneapolis, Pensions, Investments Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs' Hatzius: Next week's CPI report will be more important than the payroll numberJan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to react to the latest job reports, why next week's CPI report matters, and more.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: CPI
AI chatbots can help workers brainstorm ideas, do research, write reports, build presentations, learn about new topics and identify patterns in vast troves of data. AI will ‘destroy’ some jobs, boost othersThere is also the very real risk that AI will replace some workers. AI might be able to help slow the rate of decay in the labor force,” Sangani said. “These workers will be supplemented, not replaced, by AI,” Sangani said, though he added there are also places where AI will replace workers. IMF warns AI could deepen inequalityEven if AI accelerates economic growth, there is no guarantee that everyone will benefit.
Persons: New York CNN — Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, ” Hatzius, that’s, you’ll, , ” Satyen, ” Sangani, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Treasury Department, IRS, Hatzius, International Monetary Fund Locations: New York, United States
By Jan Strupczewski and Kate AbnettBRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union country leaders will urge the EU to work quickly on more measures to support farmers in response to months of protests by angry agriculture workers, draft conclusions for an EU leaders' summit showed. The EU has already watered down some environmental policies in response to the sometimes violent protests, but with farmers still taking to the streets this week in Belgium and France, Brussels is under pressure to do more. Draft conclusions for an EU summit on 21-22 March, seen by Reuters, showed EU country leaders plan to ask the European Commission to work without delay on "all possible short-term measures, including those to reduce the administrative burden and achieve simplification for farmers". The EU should also take action to strengthen the position of farmers in the food supply chain, and ensure they can earn a fair income, the draft said. The EU Environment Agency this week said current EU food policies are failing to address climate change risks.
Persons: Jan Strupczewski, Kate Abnett BRUSSELS, Kate Abnett, Jan Harvey Organizations: Union, EU, Reuters, Commission, EU Environment Agency Locations: Belgium, France, Brussels, Europe, Poland, Germany, Slovenia, EU
The death certificate for Ryan Bagwell, a 19-year-old from Mission, Texas, states that he died from a fentanyl overdose. A federal law enforcement lab found that none of the pills from the bottle tested positive for Percocet. But they all tested positive for lethal quantities of fentanyl. As millions of fentanyl-tainted pills inundate the United States masquerading as common medications, grief-scarred families have been pressing for a change in the language used to describe drug deaths. They want public health leaders, prosecutors and politicians to use “poisoning” instead of “overdose.” In their view, “overdose” suggests that their loved ones were addicted and responsible for their own deaths, whereas “poisoning” shows they were victims.
Persons: Ryan Bagwell, Sandra Bagwell, “ Ryan, ” Mrs . Bagwell, Locations: Mission , Texas, United States
Read previewInvestors couldn't get enough of grocery delivery startups during the pandemic. Rohlik is on a pathway to profitability and has broken even in several key cities, CEO Tomas Cupr told Business Insider. Advertisement"The online grocery industry didn't have the best year in 2023, but we're still growing, which is super positive," Cupr told BI. At least 19 grocery delivery startups were operating across Europe at the height of the market. "The grocery delivery market remains a challenging area in Europe.
Persons: , Tomas Cupr, Cupr, we've, Turkey's, Germany's, Nalin Patel, Jan Hammer Organizations: Service, Venture, Business, Ventures Locations: Europe, Prague, Czechia, Hungary, Munich, London, Paris, Budapest, Vienna, Istanbul, New York
Despite Trump facing legal issues on multiple fronts, including a federal indictment that alleges he illegally conspired to discount votes in the 2020 election, he appears to be cruising to the Republican nomination once again. Raymond James was listed by Goldman and in Barclays' Trump stock basket, according to the Jan. 30 note. A Trump term could benefit energy giants such as Chevron , but also smaller players such as Devon Energy or coal companies such as Peabody Energy , according to Goldman. Another group of industrial companies could get a piece of government spending from expansion of the Mexico border wall under a second Trump administration. Caterpillar was one of the companies involved previously, according to Goldman.
Persons: Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Venu Krishna, Goldman, Wells, Piper Sandler, Raymond James Organizations: Trump, Republican, Barclays, Federal Trade Commission, Boston, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Energy, Republicans, Chevron, Devon Energy, Peabody Energy, Steel Dynamics, Broadcom, Caterpillar Locations: China, Cleveland, Mexico
The Alabama legislature on Wednesday is expected to pass legislation that will make it possible for fertility clinics in the state to reopen without the specter of crippling lawsuits. But the measure, hastily written and expected to pass by a huge bipartisan margin, does not address the legal question that led to clinic closings and set off a stormy, politically fraught national debate: Whether embryos that have been frozen and stored for possible future implantation have the legal status of human beings. The Alabama Supreme Court made such a finding last month, in the context of a claim against a Mobile clinic brought by three couples whose frozen embryos were inadvertently destroyed. The court ruled that, under Alabama law, those embryos should be regarded as people, and that the couples were entitled to punitive damages for the wrongful death of a child. Legal experts said the bill, which Governor Kay Ivey has signaled she will sign, would be the first in the country to create a legal moat around embryos, blocking lawsuits or prosecutions if they are damaged or destroyed.
Persons: Kay Ivey Organizations: Alabama Supreme Locations: Alabama
The Latest NewsAlcohol-related deaths surged in the United States by nearly 30 percent in recent years, with roughly 500 Americans dying each day in 2021, according to a new study published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The study chronicled a sustained spike in drinking during the Covid pandemic that continued to rise after the shock of the lockdowns of 2020. The incidence of alcohol-related deaths was higher in men, but among women the death rate shot up at a quicker pace. “I think the results of this research are really alarming,” said Dr. Michael Siegel, who is a professor of public health at Tufts University School of Medicine and was not involved in the study. “It shows that there’s been a truly substantial increase in alcohol-related deaths over the last six years.”
Persons: , Michael Siegel, there’s Organizations: Centers for Disease Control, Tufts University School of Medicine Locations: United States
The US housing market faces an inventory shortage, but empty offices don't offer a solution. Goldman Sachs strategists say that offices can't be cheaply or easily converted into residential units. Goldman Sachs Investment Research, CoStar dataIn the same stretch, a combination of high mortgage rates and home prices with limited housing inventory has frozen the US housing market. Residential housing affordability has declined for the last 15 years and hit a historical low in 2022. "Our analysis implies that only 0.8% of US office inventory is currently priced at a level that makes conversion to multifamily housing financially feasible," the bank maintained.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , it's, Goldman, Jan Hatzius Organizations: Service, Goldman Sachs Investment Research, Goldman, San Locations: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle
Supporters of the state laws say they foster free speech, giving the public access to all points of view. One contrarian brief, from liberal professors, urged the justices to uphold the key provision of the Texas law despite the harm they said it would cause. “Social media platforms exercise editorial judgment that is inherently expressive,” Judge Kevin C. Newsom wrote for the panel. To the surprise of many, some prominent liberal professors filed a brief urging the justices to uphold a key provision of the Texas law. In the second case, Miami Herald v. Tornillo, the Supreme Court in 1974 struck down a Florida law that would have allowed politicians a “right to reply” to newspaper articles critical of them.
Persons: Samuel A, Alito Jr, , Scott Wilkens, Ron DeSantis, John Tully, Donald J, Trump, Greg Abbott of, , Ken Paxton, , Andrew S, Oldham, Kevin C, Newsom, Lawrence Lessig, Tim Wu of, Teachout, Mandel Ngan, Richard L, “ Florida’s, Moody, Paxton, Robins, William H, Rehnquist, Pat L, Tornillo, Warren E, Burger Organizations: Facebook, YouTube, Columbia University, Big Tech, The New York Times, Gov, Republican, Computer & Communications Industry, New York Times, Fox News, U.S ., Appeals, Fifth Circuit, ISIS, Harvard, Tim Wu of Columbia, Zephyr, Fordham, Twitter, Manchester Union, Citizens United, Agence France, University of California, Miami Herald, Florida, Representatives, Constitution Locations: Florida, Texas, Greg Abbott of Texas, Ukraine, Los Angeles, Campbell , Calif
The US economy will see a surge in growth as more people start to take GLP-1 weight loss drugs. "The main reason we see economic upside from healthcare innovation is that poor health imposes significant economic costs," Goldman Sachs said. The more people that take GLP-1 weight loss drugs, the faster the US economy will grow, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. The bank said in a note on Thursday that US GDP would grow by an extra 1% if 60 million Americans took GLP-1 drugs by 2028. There are several channels through which poor health weighs on economic activity that could diminish if health outcomes improve," Hatzius said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Eli Lilly, Goldman Organizations: Service, Goldman, Novo Nordisk
(Reuters) - Iran unveiled new weaponry on Saturday including what it said was the locally made Arman anti-ballistic missile system and the Azarakhsh low-altitude air defense system, the official IRNA news agency reported. Gaza has been under military assault by Israel since Hamas's attacks on Israel's south on Oct. 7. Israel has also struck Iranian targets in Syria. "With the entry of new systems into the country's defense network, the air defense capability of the Islamic Republic of Iran will increase significantly," IRNA said. In June Iran presented what officials described as its first domestically made hypersonic ballistic missile, named Fattah, with a range of 1,400 km.
Persons: Arman, General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, IRNA, Jan Harvey Organizations: Reuters, Yemen’s, Israel, Iranian Defense Locations: Iran, Yemen’s Iran, U.S, Red, Gaza, Israel, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Islamic Republic of Iran
Read previewAt the start of 2023, most US economists were bracing for a recession. An economics professor at St Mary’s University, a tiny Roman Catholic college in San Antonio, Texas, bucked the trend. Last January, Belinda Román told surveyors from The Wall Street Journal that she was expecting the economy to have a strong 2023. No recession, low unemploymentIn January 2023, Román locked in her forecast for the year, telling the WSJ that she was expecting the US’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to expand by 2.8%. 2024 predictionsMany forecasters are now bullish on the US economy off the back of a stellar 2023 — and Román is no exception.
Persons: , Belinda Román, Román, That's, Taylor Swift, , , who’s, St Mary’s, we’ve, ” Román, Goldman Sachs ’ Jan Hatzius, London —, I’d, there’s Organizations: Service, St Mary’s University, Roman Catholic, Wall Street Journal, Business, Bank of America, JPMorgan, The Commerce Department, St, American Chamber of Commerce Locations: San Antonio , Texas, London
By Humeyra PamukMUNICH (Reuters) -There is "an extraordinary opportunity" in the coming months for Israel to normalise ties with its Arab neighbors, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Saturday, while also emphasizing the need for the creation of a Palestinian state. The top U.S. diplomat said there were genuine efforts led by Arab countries to revitalize the Palestinian Authority so it can be more effecting in representing the Palestinians. "And there's also, I think the imperative, that's more urgent than ever, to proceed to a Palestinian state that also ensures the security of Israel," he added. Photos You Should See View All 33 ImagesThe Biden administration has been working to secure a mega-deal that will see ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize. The Kingdom and other Arab countries are seeking the creation of a Palestinian state as part of the deal.
Persons: Humeyra Pamuk, Antony Blinken, Blinken, Biden, Jan Harvey Organizations: Palestinian Authority, Security, West Bank Locations: Humeyra Pamuk MUNICH, Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, Kingdom, Washington
Trump sparked fierce criticism from top Western officials for saying that, as U.S. president, he had told an unnamed leader he would not protect countries that failed to meet NATO defence spending targets, and would even encourage Russia to attack them. "Many presidents have been saying for many years that in Europe, we - being a generally wealthy society - should invest more in our own defence," Karins said as he walked between events at the annual Munich Security Conference on Friday. Karins said part of Europe's response should be to continue to spend more on defence - a trend fuelled by Russia's seizure of Crimea in 2014 and full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Karins said Europe would still need the structures and coordination provided by the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization for its forces to operate effectively together, as Europe was not a country with a single army. "We will still need NATO to help coordinate us."
Persons: Andrew Gray MUNICH, Donald Trump's, Krisjanis Karins, Trump, Karins, Andrew Gray, Jan Harvey Organizations: NATO, Latvian, Baltic, Reuters, Security, Treaty Organization Locations: Russia, U.S, Europe, Crimea, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCore PCE inflation is on its way to Fed's 2% goal, says Goldman Sachs' Jan HatziusJan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss inflation and the changing rate cut narrative.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Jan Hatzius
Read previewClaudia Sahm, the former Federal Reserve economist who developed the Sahm Rule recession indicator, believes the US economy will likely avoid a downturn this year. We solved the labor shortage by getting more labor," Sahm said. "The foreign-born labor force has made a disproportionate contribution to reducing the jobs-workers gap. This has been driven by two factors: above-trend immigration growth and greater foreign-born labor force participation," said Jan Hatzius, the chief US economist at Goldman Sachs, in an August 2023 client note. "Growth in the foreign-born labor force has accelerated by 50k to 160k per month this year, lifted by a surging foreign-born labor force participation rate," Hatzius added.
Persons: , Claudia Sahm, Sahm, doesn't, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, National Bureau of Economic, US, Labor, Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed Locations: flatlining
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLabor market is not as strong as payroll number suggests, says Goldman Sachs' Jan HatziusJan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the reaction to Friday's jobs report, if the hours worked data offsets the data in wage growth, and the economist's outlook for the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Jan Hatzius Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve
Duterte also accused Marcos of being a drug addict. He has not commented on Duterte’s claim about lifting term limits, under which the president can serve only a single six-year term. The Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency said Monday that Marcos was never on such a list, contrary to Duterte’s claim. Early last year, Marcos allowed an expansion of the U.S. military presence in the Philippines under a 2014 defense pact. Marcos led his own rally Sunday at a seaside park in Manila, which police said drew about 400,000 people after nightfall.
Persons: , Rodrigo Duterte, Fernando Marcos Jr, Marcos, Ferdinand Marcos, Duterte, Martin Romualdez, Duterte’s, Sara, Marcos ’, who’s, ” Duterte, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, ” Marcos, Organizations: Criminal, Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency, U.S Locations: MANILA, Philippines, Philippine, Davao city, Washington, China, South China, Manila
Goldman Sachs doesn't expect an inflation spike in the US fueled by turmoil in the Red Sea. To be sure, Red Sea disruptions have caused freight costs to soar as much as 350%. AdvertisementShipping disruptions in the Red Sea have caused freight costs to spike, but the impact on inflation will remain muted, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchHowever, they maintained that goods inflation still won't see a meaningful uptick for two reasons. "Under reasonable pass-through assumptions, a 100% increase in the cost of sea freight therefore only raises core goods inflation by around 0.4pp and overall core inflation by around 0.1pp," the Goldman strategists said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Jan Hatzius, Hatzius Organizations: Service, Shipping, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Goldman Locations: Red, Iran, Israel, Gaza, Suez, Asia, Europe, China, Southeast Asia, 0.4pp, 0.1pp
Attacks on ships in the Red Sea are delivering another shock to global trade, coming on top of pandemic-related logjams at ports and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The normal route — three weeks via the Suez Canal — has been shut down by the Houthi attacks. Chief executive Stuart Machin said the Red Sea trouble was "impacting everyone and something we're very focused on." For Europe, the impact is even bigger: 40% of clothes and 50% of shoes traverse the Red Sea. Norwegian fertilizer giant Yara said it was "only mildly impacted by the transit challenges in the Red Sea."
Persons: It's, Petersen, Ryan Petersen, Clifton Broumand, Broumand, it's, Tesla, Spencer, Stuart Machin, Steve Lamar, Lamar, Flexport, Katheryn Russ, Davis, Judah Levine, Freightos, Russ, Obama, Carlos Tavares, Stellantis, Jan Hoffmann, Frank Conforti, Conforti Organizations: Galaxy, Houthis Media, Getty, Machine, Hamas, Volvo, Suzuki Motor Corp, American Apparel & Footwear Association, University of California, U.S . Federal Reserve, BMW, Retailer Urban Outfitters, Free People Locations: Iran, Yemen, Anadolu, Greater Landover , Maryland, Taiwan, China, Gaza, Panama, Asia, Europe, United States, Suez, Africa, Ukraine, Belgium, Germany, British, Maryland, Los Angeles, Berlin, Swedish, Ghent, Hungary, Japan, U.S, overcapacity, Red, Israel, India
Attacks on ships in the Red Sea are delivering another shock to global trade, coming on top of pandemic-related logjams at ports and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The normal route — three weeks via the Suez Canal — has been shut down by the Houthi attacks. Chief executive Stuart Machin said the Red Sea trouble was “impacting everyone and something we’re very focused on." For Europe, the impact is even bigger: 40% of clothes and 50% of shoes traverse the Red Sea. Norwegian fertilizer giant Yara said it was “only mildly impacted by the transit challenges in the Red Sea."
Persons: What’s, Ryan Petersen, Petersen, It’s, Clifton Broumand, Broumand, , , , it’s, Tesla, Spencer, Stuart Machin, Steve Lamar, Lamar, Flexport, Katheryn Russ, Davis, Judah Levine, Freightos, it's, Russ, Obama, Carlos Tavares, Stellantis, Jan Hoffmann, Frank Conforti, Conforti, ____ Anderson, Kelvin Chan, Anne D'Innocenzio, Yuri Kageyama, Tom Krisher, David McHugh Organizations: WASHINGTON, , Hamas, Machine, Volvo, Suzuki Motor Corp, American Apparel & Footwear Association, University of California, U.S . Federal Reserve, BMW, Retailer, Free People, AP Business Locations: Belgium, Germany, British, Maryland, Asia, Ukraine, Yemen, Gaza, Europe, United States, Suez, Africa, , Panama, Greater Landover , Maryland, Taiwan, China, Los Angeles, Berlin, Swedish, Ghent, Hungary, Japan, U.S, overcapacity, Red, Israel, India, New York, London, Tokyo, Detroit, Frankfurt
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The U.N. trade body sounded an alarm Thursday that global trade is being disrupted by attacks in the Red Sea, the war in Ukraine, and low water levels in the Panama Canal. Since November, the Iranian-backed Houthis have launched at least 34 attacks on shipping through the waterways leading to the Suez Canal. Total transits through the Panama Canal in December were 36% lower than a year ago, and 62% lower than two years ago, Hoffmann said. Hoffmann said ships transporting liquified natural gas have stopped transiting the Suez Canal altogether because of fears of an attack. “Here you see the global impact of the crisis, as ships are seeking alternative routes, avoiding the Suez and the Panama Canal,” Hoffmann said.
Persons: Jan Hoffmann, Yemen’s Houthi, Hoffmann, Yemen’s, ” Hoffmann Organizations: UNITED NATIONS, United Nations Conference, Trade, UNCTAD, Suez, U.N, Ships Locations: Red, Ukraine, Panama, Suez, Asia, Europe, Iranian, Saudi, Israel, United States, Britain, Geneva, Russia, East Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, Hope, Africa, Shanghai, U.S
At least 118 countries at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai have backed a pledge to improve energy efficiency rates by 4% each year until 2030. In its simplest form, energy efficiency can simply mean using appliances, technology, or electronics that are designed to consume less energy, such as heat pumps or LED lighting. Industries worldwide could save $437 billion per year by 2030 with improved energy efficiency, according to an October 2023 industry collective report by the Energy Efficiency Movement. As a result, energy efficiency improved globally this year by about 1.3% compared with last year, slower than the 2% improvement posted in 2022 due largely to rising energy demand, the IEA's annual Energy Efficiency report said. In the U.S., energy efficiency is beating the global average efficiency improvement rate this year at 4%, with $86 billion allocated for the goal under the Inflation Reduction Act.
Persons: Andrew Boyers, Larissa Gross, Sofie Irgens, Nick Eyre, Gloria Dickie, Katy Daigle, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, International Energy Agency, BE, European Union, Industries, Energy, U.S . Department of Energy, IEA, Oxford University, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Watchfield, Swindon, Britain, Dubai, leakages, India, Africa, U.S, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands
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