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☆ Deutsche Bank strategists recommend equity overweight into 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Deutsche Bank logo is seen in this illustration taken March 12, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Strategists at Deutsche Bank have recommended an overweight in equities into 2024, as risks are now well reflected in the market and those are about to turn into opportunities. "We anticipated weaker growth, disappointing beats in earnings and disappointing central bank communication into Q3," Deutsche Bank strategists, led by Maximilian Uleer, head of European Equity- and Cross Asset Strategy, said in a note. The bank has set its 2024 forecast for the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) at 510, for the Euro STOXX 50 (.STOXX50E) at 4,850 and DAX 40 (.GDAXI) at 18,000. Deutsche Bank added it remained neutral U.S. equities versus Europe, while within Europe is underweight the Switzerland's SMI (.SSMI) due to its "defensive character into a bullish market."

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Maximilian Uleer, DAX, Uleer, Brent, Samuel Indyk, Amanda Cooper, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Deutsche Bank, REUTERS, European Equity, Europe, Thomson Locations: Europe, Israel, Palestine

☆ Israel has to think long and hard how it got completely blindsided by Hamas' surprise attacks, says former US National Security Council official
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Matthew Loh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It's "shocking" that Israel seemed to miss signs of Hamas' attacks, Ret. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAdvertisementIsraeli intelligence appears to have missed the signs of the "enormous amount of preparation" required for Hamas' string of attacks at the Gaza Strip border, Ret. Hamas launched a series of surprise incursions and rocket attacks along the Gaza border on Saturday, killing what Israeli authorities estimated so far to be 700 people and wounding another 1,500. Israel would have to conduct a "major diagnosis" of its intelligence capabilities, Vindman added.

Persons: Israel, Col Alexander Vindman, Vindman, —, Col, Alexander Vindman, Alicia Menendez, Benjamin Netanyahu, Netanyahu, Shin Bet, Martin Indyk, Richard Hecht Organizations: MSNBC, Service, Hamas, European Affairs, US National Security Council, US Army, West Bank, Bloomberg, Israeli Defense Forces Locations: Gaza, Israel, Iran

☆ Bonds 'in greatest bear market of all time' - BofA
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The rout in the fixed-income market is causing the "greatest bond bear market of all time", Bank of America Global Research said in a note on Friday, as the peak-to-trough loss in the U.S. 30-year yield hit 50%. In its weekly "Flow Show" report, BofA said bond funds saw $2.5 billion in outflows in the week to Wednesday, citing EPFR data. BoFA's report showed that the current loss in 30-year bonds from the peak in the market in July 2020 to now far outpaces that of any previous bear market, making this one what it calls "the greatest of all time" and the "humiliation trade" right now is buying bonds. BofA said its "Bull & Bear indicator", dropped to a five-month low of 2.6 on poor equity breadth, outflows from emerging markets, high yield bonds and developed market stocks. BofA said it prefers to "sell the rips" in the upper half of S&P 500's (.SPX) range of 3,600-4,200 as they are "convinced the bear market has unfinished business".

Persons: Dado Ruvic, BofA, BoFA's, Michael Hartnett, Samuel Indyk, Amanda Cooper, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of America Global Research, Equity, Thomson Locations: U.S, outflows

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. Traders have been on watch for weeks for a possible intervention by Japanese officials to combat a sustained depreciation in the yen. "It could just be people expecting intervention and then reacting to what they believed to be intervention," said Asher. To support the Japanese currency, authorities need to tap Japan's foreign reserves of dollars to sell for yen. A senior Japanese ministry of finance official declined to comment on whether Japan had intervened in foreign exchange markets.

Persons: Florence Lo, Michael Brown, Brown, Colin Asher, Asher, Niels Christensen, Jeremy Stretch, Edward Moya, Stretch, Tuesday's, Chuck Mikolajczak, Samuel Indyk, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Dhara Ranasinghe, Lucy Raitano, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Jonathan Oatis, Andrea Ricci, Hugh Lawson, Gareth Jones Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Trader, Mizuho, Nordea, Bank of Japan, New York Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, Ministry, Finance, Seven, Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, London, Copenhagen, Japan, U.S, Tokyo, Asia, New York, United States

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. The yen eased to 149.83 per dollar, its weakest in more than 11 months, moving ever closer to the 150 mark that some traders believe could prompt intervention by Tokyo to support the currency. "If the yen breaks 150 per dollar, which I think is likely, and verbal intervention is not followed by action then we could see dollar-yen at 155." In the broader currency market, sterling was last 0.4% lower at $1.2158, having slid nearly 4% against the dollar in the third quarter. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar slid 0.6% to $0.6395, while the New Zealand dollar edged 0.4% lower to $0.5972, as traders looked ahead to rate decisions from their respective central banks this week.

Persons: Florence Lo, Dane Cekov, Shunichi Suzuki, Jarrod Kerr, Nordea's Cekov, bitcoin, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Simon Cameron, Moore, Emelia, Alex Richardson Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Japan's, Finance, Congress, Democratic, Australian, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Britain, U.S

☆ Pound, franc slide as central banks pause hikes; dollar holds firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The euro rose as high as 0.9677 francs and is set for its biggest one-day rise since June. The dollar rose 0.8% to 0.9053 francs , hitting its highest level since June 13. "The Swiss franc has understandably weakened after the surprise hold in the policy rate today," ING strategists said in a note. Meanwhile, Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's central bank both raised rates by 25 basis points, in line with expectations. Although you never know for sure with this central bank," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Goldman Sachs, Michael Cahill, Sweden's, Niels Christensen, Matt Simpson, Samuel Indyk, Brigid Riley, Kevin Buckland, Sam Holmes, Shri Navaratnam, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Swiss, British, U.S . Federal Reserve, Friday's Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, ING, Fed, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, NZ, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Sweden, Norway, Swedish, Norwegian

☆ Stocks waver, short-end U.S. yields rise after hawkish Fed statement
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"They're talking about higher rates for longer, but it's really the economy that matters. MSCI's U.S.-centric gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.25% as stocks on Wall Street mostly slid. "Right now the message is we're going to leave rates higher for longer to make sure we slay the inflation dragon. Sterling came under pressure after data showed Britain's high inflation rate fell unexpectedly in August, prompting speculation that the Bank of England could pause its historic run of interest rate hikes as soon as Thursday. The dollar index rose 0.076%, with the euro down 0.02% to $1.0675.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Powell, Gennadiy Goldberg, it's, Anthony Saglimbene, Sterling, Brent, Herbert Lash, Dhara Ranasinghe, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Toby Chopra, Chizu Nomiyama, Sharon Singleton, Aurora Ellis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of England, Bank of, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, MSCI's U.S, Troy , Michigan, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain, London, Singapore

Yet in Europe, sterling came under pressure after data showed Britain's high inflation rate fell unexpectedly in August, prompting speculation that the Bank of England could pause its historic run of interest rate hikes as soon as Thursday. Two-year Treasury yields were down 3.5 basis points in London trade at 5.07%, having risen sharply on Tuesday, when five- and 10-year Treasury yields reached 16-year highs. World stock markets were edging higher ahead of the Fed rate decision. UK gilt yields fell sharply as investors slashed bets for a rate hike on Thursday, with two-year yields last down over 14 bps at 4.85% . "Combined with their recent dovish commentary, we now expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate unchanged tomorrow and lower our forecast for the terminal policy rate to 5.25%," Stehn and co. added.

Persons: DAX, Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Lee Hardman, Sterling underperformed, Goldman Sachs, Sven Jari Stehn, Stehn, Masato Kanda, Eugene Low, Dhara Ranasinghe, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Toby Chopra, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Brent, Federal, Fed, Japan's Nikkei, MPC, Monetary, Bank of, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, London, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, China, Singapore

☆ Investors glimpse opportunity in Europe's unloved mining shares
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The metals and mining sector is typically used as a proxy for equity investors in Europe to gain exposure to China, given it is the world's largest commodities consumer, and it has sunk along with China's growth expectations. But Beijing in recent weeks has taken targeted steps towards supporting key pockets of its economy, lifting the mining sector off its 31-month lows. In the last month, the mining index has risen nearly 10% compared with a gain of just 2.5% for the wider STOXX 600. Sweeney says this wide range of measures could be a catalyst for an upturn in the metals and mining sector. "Obviously, the 800-pound gorilla from a primary metal demand perspective is China," Peter Mallin-Jones, mining analyst at UK investment bank Peel Hunt, said.

Persons: Ints, Nathan Sweeney, multiasset, Sweeney, LSEG, Peter Mallin, Peel Hunt, Jones, Daniel Major, Marlborough Investment Management's Sweeney, Samuel Indyk, Amanda Cooper, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: REUTERS, Equity, Marlborough Investment Management, Miners, London Metal, Morningstar, UBS, Rio Tinto, BHP Group, Major, Marlborough Investment, Thomson Locations: Garpenberg, Sweden, China, LONDON, Europe, Beijing, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, United States, Rio, Antofagasta, Rio Tinto, Marlborough

☆ Crunch time after string of aggressive central bank rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Major central banks have confounded economists with a string of interest rate rises that, so far, have moderated inflation without causing global recession. So far, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,915 bps in this cycle. Reuters Graphics2) NEW ZEALANDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its cash rate to a 14-year high of 5.5% in May and has kept it there since. Reuters Graphics7) AUSTRALIAThe Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady at 4.1% for a third consecutive meeting in September, the last under former Governor Philip Lowe. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the world's most dovish major central bank, meets next week.

Persons: BoE, Macklem, Philip Lowe, Lowe's, Michele Bullock, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Samuel Indyk, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, UNITED, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of, BRITAIN, of England, CANADA Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada, ECB, Norges Bank, SWEDEN Traders, Swiss, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NORWAY, Reserve Bank of Australia, SWEDEN, Swedish, SWITZERLAND Swiss, JAPAN

☆ Morning Bid: CPI to set the tone
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Core prices are forecast to have risen by a more acceptable 0.2% for a third straight month. That would take the annual rate down to 4.3%, the smallest year-on-year rise since September 2021. What makes these figures so interesting is the central bank is already in its quiet period before the Sept. 20 rate announcement, with traders overwhelmingly expecting the Fed to keep rates on hold. That updated projection is well above the central bank's 2% inflation target and above the 2.7% predicted by a Reuters poll of economists. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Samuel Indyk, Jerome Powell, Rhys Herbert, Christina Fincher Organizations: European Central Bank, Wednesday's, Reuters, Lloyds Bank, Wall, Apple, CPI, Treasury, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wednesday's U.S

☆ AstraZeneca seeks to calm CEO speculation after shares drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Maggie Fick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The company logo for pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca is displayed on a screen on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange, U.S., April 8, 2019. The company initially declined to comment on the Mail on Sunday report, but later issued a statement saying: "We do not comment on market rumours. AstraZeneca shares closed down 3.2% after earlier touching their lowest since July 19. The Times' article focused on the retirement of Mene Pangalos, the long-time biopharmaceuticals head of research at AstraZeneca, which was announced in July. Reporting by Maggie Fick and Samuel Indyk; Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Pascal Soriot, Soriot, Mene Pangalos, Pangalos, Pascal, Maggie Fick, Samuel Indyk, Tomasz Janowski, Mark Potter Organizations: AstraZeneca, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Times, Thomson Locations: British

☆ AstraZeneca shares fall 3.6% to 7-1/2 week low
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

The company logo for pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca is displayed on a screen on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange, U.S., April 8, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Shares in London-listed drugmaker AstraZeneca (AZN.L) declined as much as 3.6% on Monday, falling to their lowest since July 19. Reuters could not independently verify the information. AstraZeneca declined to comment on the report. Reporting by Samuel Indyk and Maggie Fick; Editing by Amanda CooperOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Pascal Soriot, Samuel Indyk, Maggie Fick, Amanda Cooper Organizations: AstraZeneca, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Traders, Reuters, Thomson Locations: London

☆ AstraZeneca shares fall 4% to 7-1/2 week low
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The company logo for pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca is displayed on a screen on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange, U.S., April 8, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsCompanies AstraZeneca PLC FollowLONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Shares in London-listed drugmaker AstraZeneca (AZN.L) fell more than 4% on Monday, sliding to their lowest since July 19. An AstraZeneca spokesperson declined to comment on the report. Two of the analysts and the shareholder also mentioned that an article published on Monday in Britain's Times newspaper could have affected the shares, though it appeared to contradict the Mail on Sunday report. The Times' article focused on the retirement of Mene Pangalos, the long-time biopharmaceuticals head of research at AstraZeneca, which was announced in July.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Pascal Soriot, Mene Pangalos, Pangalos, Pascal, Maggie Fick, Samuel Indyk, Amanda Cooper, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: AstraZeneca, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, drugmaker's, Reuters, Britain's Times, Times, Thomson Locations: London

☆ US dollar flat, but on track for eight straight weeks of gains; yuan sinks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Despite Friday's pullback, the dollar index was headed for eight straight weeks of gains, the longest such streak since 2014. "There's a lot of reasoning to ask whether dollar strength is going too far." In afternoon trading, the dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major peers, was flat at 105.05. That said, Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist, at UBS in New York, said while eight weeks are an unusually long stretch of dollar strength, the currency's gains are getting smaller every week. The euro , the largest component in the dollar index, was on track for eight straight weeks of losses and down 0.7% on the week.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Amo Sahota, Sahota, Vassili, Sterling, Shunichi Suzuki, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Gerry Doyle, Angus MacSwan, Mark Heinrich, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, FX, U.S, Apple, Federal Reserve, UBS, greenback, Finance, Thomson Locations: San Francisco, China, New York, U.S, Germany, Europe's, Canada, United States, Japan, London, Singapore

China's onshore yuan meanwhile ended its domestic session at the weakest since 2007, as it battles capital outflow pressures and a widening yield gap with major economies. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against major peers, was last 0.05% lower at 105 but remained not far from the previous session's six-month high of 105.15. IN THE DOLDRUMSThe onshore yuan opened at 7.3400 per dollar on Friday and touched its weakest level since December 2007 at 7.3510, while its offshore counterpart sank to a 10-month low of 7.3621 per dollar. The onshore yuan has fallen roughly 6% against the dollar so far this year and has become one of the worst-performing Asian currencies alongside its offshore counterpart. The Australian dollar was last 0.28% higher at $0.6395, but eyed a weekly loss of over 0.8%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Dane Cekov, Nordea's Cekov, Sterling, Vishnu Varathan, Shunichi Suzuki, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Gerry Doyle, Angus MacSwan, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Nordea, Mizuho Bank, Finance, Bank of Japan, Bank of, Australian, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: U.S, Germany, Europe's, Europe, United States, Bank of Japan

☆ Dollar rises to six-month high after US data; weak yen prompts warning
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The greenback recovered against most currencies after the data, with the euro and sterling hitting three-month lows and the yen touching session troughs. The euro and sterling fell to three-month lows after the data and were last flat at $1.0726 and down 0.5% at $1.2505 , respectively. Data showed the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s non-manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5 last month, the highest since February and up from 52.7 in July. Against the yen, the dollar trimmed losses, last down little changed at 147.69 yen. The dollar showed little reaction to the report.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Helen, Susan Collins, Christopher Waller, Waller, Masato Kanda, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Savio D'Souza, Alexandra Hudson, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Institute for Supply Management, Reuters, Monex USA, Federal, Fed, Boston, CNBC, Ministry of Finance, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S, Kanda, London, Singapore

☆ Stocks decline, Treasury yields jump as investors weigh rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The Dow led declines among the three major stock indexes on Wall Street, even as higher oil lifted shares of some energy companies. Oil prices rose to their highest since November after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their voluntary supply cuts to the end of the year. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.23% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.60%. Brent crude futures rose by $1.04, or 1.2%, to settle at $90.04 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures gained $1.14, or 1.3%, to settle at $86.69 a barrel.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Christopher Waller, Dow, Caroline Valetkevitch, Sinead Carew, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Shounak Dasgupta, Mike Harrison, Lincoln Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Sylvest Wealth Management, Investors, Fed, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Brent, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Europe, Britain, Elmhurst , Illinois, Saudi Arabia, Russia, New York, London

☆ Stocks decline as yields, dollar rise amid global demand worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. Also, U.S. benchmark Treasury yields jumped, while the Aussia dollar fell after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady. "Worries are on the rise about a China and Europe-led slowdown in global growth. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.5% at 104.69. Wall Street stocks dipped with growth stocks as Treasury yields rose.

Persons: Toby Melville, Joe Manimbo, Christopher Waller, Brent, Caroline Valetkevitch, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Stephen Coates, Kim Coghill, Christina Fincher, Shounak Dasgupta, Mike Harrison Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Reserve Bank of, The U.S, Wall, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, China, Europe, U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia, Washington, The, New York, London

A coffee machine featuring Novo Nordisk logo is seen at the company headquarters in Copenhagen, Denmark, February 5, 2020. REUTERS/Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk briefly unseated LVMH (LVMH.PA) as Europe's most valuable listed company in intraday trading on Friday, ending the French luxury group's 2-1/2 year-long reign at the top. At 0843 GMT, Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) had a market capitalisation of $421 billion including unlisted stock, according to Refinitiv data and company disclosures of its share count. By 1031 GMT, Novo Nordisk shares were up 1% while LVMH shares were down 0.4%. LVMH shares have fallen 13.8% from an all-time high hit in April, underperforming Europe's broader STOXX 600 which is down around 1.9% in the same time frame.

Persons: Jacob Gronholt, Pedersen, LVMH, Ozempic, Wegovy, Novo's, Louis Vuitton, Marcel Stotzel, Stotzel, Eli Lilly, Axelle Pinon, Mounjaro, Novo, Carmignac's Pinon, Hennessy, Tiffany, Fiona Cincotta, Hermes, Samuel Indyk, Amanda Cooper, Catherine Evans Organizations: Novo Nordisk, REUTERS, Nestle, Dior, Fidelity European Fund, Fidelity European Trust, Barclays, Index, Financiere, Thomson Locations: Copenhagen, Denmark, Danish, LVMH, United States, China, Covid

☆ Dollar gains on solid data, euro drops on cautious ECB comments
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. U.S. consumer spending increased by the most in six months in July, with an 0.8% increase, but slowing inflation strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged next month. “The dollar is faring better as today’s data suggests America’s economic glass remains half full,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. Money markets are now pricing in a 69% probability that the ECB will leave rates unchanged at its September meeting. The dollar was last 7.2595 against the onshore yuan , after reaching 7.2485, the lowest level since Aug. 14.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Joe Manimbo, Raphael Bostic, ’, Isabel Schnabel, “ We've, Michael Brown, Karen Brettell, Samuel Indyk, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Reuters, ECB, Trader, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S, People's Bank of China, London

☆ Euro falls as ECB hike bets take hit on inflation, policymaker comments
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. But, while euro area-wide inflation unexpectedly held at 5.3% this month, underlying price growth fell, complicating matters for the ECB, who now appear more likely to keep interest rates unchanged next month than raise them. ECB rate-setter Schnabel - considered one of the most hawkish members on the ECB - said euro zone growth was weaker than predicted but that does not necessarily void the need for more rate hikes. "I think the fact she is flagging downside risks to growth is putting some downside pressure on the euro." Both sterling and the euro are set for monthly drops of over 1% against the dollar in August.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, policymaker Isabel Schnabel, Schnabel, We've, Michael Brown, Chris Turner, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Trader, Traders, Federal, Commerce Department, UK, CEE, New Zealand, Aussie, Thomson Locations: Tokyo

U.S. bond investors nonetheless dialled back their bets of a rate hike in November and December following Powell's remarks, though Treasury yields traded near break-even by late morning. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was steady at 4.2314% and the two-year yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, rose to 5.0735%. "We've seen a back-off in ECB rate hike expectations. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Yahoo Finance's video channel that rates may be near or at a peak, "but certainly additional increments are possible." Tokyo consumer price data on Friday, which front-runs nationwide figures, showed inflation remained well above the Bank of Japan's target.

Persons: Toby Melville, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Sadkin, Dow Jones, Christine, Lagarde, Ben Laidler, Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, Shaun Osborne, Joseph Capurso, Kazuo Ueda, Jackson, Brent, Samuel Indyk, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong, Mark Potter, Chizu Nomiyama, Susan Fenton, Diane Craft, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, Boston, Yahoo, U.S, Scotiabank, Bank of, Bank of Japan, CBA, West Texas, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Asia, Tokyo

☆ Shares whipsaw as Fed weighs inflation risks, yields steady
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

If you're a bear, you heard him say we're going to be restrictive, and we might hike rates," said David Sadkin, president at Bel Air Investment Advisors. U.S. rates investors nonetheless dialled back their bets of a rate hike in November and December following Powell's remarks, though Treasury yields traded near break-even by late morning. "We've seen a back off in ECB rate hike expectations. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Yahoo Finance's video channel that rates may be near or at a peak, "but certainly additional increments are possible." Tokyo consumer price data on Friday, which front-runs nationwide figures, showed inflation remained well above the Bank of Japan's target.

Persons: Toby Melville, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Sadkin, Dow Jones, Christine, Lagarde, Ben Laidler, Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, Shaun Osborne, Joseph Capurso, Kazuo Ueda, Jackson, Brent, Samuel Indyk, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong, Mark Potter, Chizu Nomiyama, Susan Fenton Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, Boston, Yahoo, U.S, Scotiabank, Bank of, Bank of Japan, CBA, West Texas, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Asia, Tokyo

[1/3] Euro currency bills are pictured at the Croatian National Bank in Zagreb, Croatia, May 21, 2019. The services component sank to 48.3 from 50.9, its first time below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction this year. The single currency weakened after the German data, hitting its lowest level against the dollar since June 15 at $1.0805. "The decline in services activity was a sharp move and we've seen a soft euro environment," said Niels Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea. The spot yuan opened at 7.2870 per dollar on Wednesday and was last changing hands at 7.2899.

Persons: Antonio Bronic, Niels Christensen, Martin Beck, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Nordea's Christensen, Colin Asher, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Kim Coghill, Mark Potter, Chizu Organizations: Croatian National Bank, REUTERS, P, European Central Bank, PMI, Bank of England, Reuters, Federal, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Mizuho, Thomson Locations: Zagreb, Croatia, Britain, July's, U.S, Europe, tenterhooks, Tokyo, London, Singapore

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