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☆ The Fed has rolled out a new index for gauging the economy that could have big implications
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is changing the way it looks at "financial conditions," a move that could have important ramifications for policy ahead. The Fed has been using a series of interest rate increases to tighten financial conditions and, ultimately, to bring down inflation. Essentially, the move allows the Fed to distance itself from other financial conditions models, such as those formulated by Goldman Sachs and the Chicago Fed . By contrast, the Chicago Fed index's current reading is -0.28, implying relatively loose conditions. Capital Economics noted that the FCI-G "does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures."

Persons: they've, Krishna Guha, Jerome, Powell, Guha, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, Evercore ISI, Fed, Chicago Fed, Treasury, Dow Jones, U.S, FCI

☆ 'I don't like the tape here,' Cramer warns on certain stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | In Kevinstankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. 'Don't like the tape' Stick with Apple Stay bullish on Wells Fargo 1. Stay bullish on Wells Fargo Wells Fargo (WFC) shares still look attractively valued, Jim said, despite their more-than-2% pop Tuesday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

Persons: Jim Cramer, Jim, he's, Wells, Charlie Scharf, Mike Santomassimo, Wells Fargo, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Labor, Federal Reserve, Oracle, Adobe, Apple, UBS Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S, India, Wells Fargo Wells Fargo, Wells

☆ Dollar on defensive after dovish Powell, debt ceiling setback
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO, May 22 (Reuters) - The dollar nursed losses against the yen and euro on Monday following a surprise breakdown in U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell indicated a preference to slow rate hikes. Investors now await a key meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy to discuss the debt ceiling on Monday. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, edged 0.04% lower to 103.00, after reaching 103.63 last week for the first time since March 20. European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said Friday officials need to "buckle up" for "sustainably high interest rates" in order to achieve its inflation target. The Australian dollar ticked up 0.06% to $0.6655, while the New Zealand dollar advanced 0.13% to $0.62835.

☆ Markets next week may keep thinking about what could go right
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

At least that's the thinking of a small but growing chorus of voices on Wall Street who outline the case for further stock market gains after both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched nine-month highs this past week. The VIX was trading around 16-17 late this week, signaling no great fear among professional traders. Walmart and other retailers this week highlighted consumers are spending less freely, but they're still spending , and that drives two thirds of the economy. Even Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote late this week that he has to entertain what could go right in markets, despite the fact his own view is fundamentally bearish. If that "upside scenario" happens, UBS sees global stocks moving 13% higher by the end of December, and the S & P 500 surging another 6% — to north of 4,400.

☆ SVB deal helps to steady banks amid credit crunch concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The sudden collapse of tech-focussed SVB earlier this month destabilised the sector and drew some of Europe's biggest banking names into investors' focus. In March, the Stoxx index of European bank shares .SX7P is down more than 18% and the U.S. KBW regional bank index .KRX has lost 21%, with investors on edge about what's next. In Europe, bank bonds are under pressure and credit default swaps, or the cost of insurance against defaults, uneasily high. First Citizens said it would take on assets of $110 billion, deposits of $56 billion and loans of $72 billion, and expand in California. It will share further potential losses with the FDIC and the FDIC retains some $90 billion in securities held for disposal.

☆ Swiss government holds talks on options to stabilize Credit Suisse - Bloomberg News
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 15 (Reuters) - Swiss authorities and Credit Suisse Group AG are discussing ways to stabilize the bank, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Credit Suisse leaders and government officials have talked about options that range from a public statement of support to a potential liquidity backstop, the reportsaid. Other suggested potential moves for Credit Suisse could be a potential separation of their Swiss unit and a tie-up with their larger Swiss competitor, UBS Group AG (UBSG.S), the report said, adding that it's unclear which, if any of these steps will actually be executed. Switzerland is under pressure from at least one major government to intervene quickly on Credit Suisse, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters, after the Swiss bank led a rout of European bank stocks on Wednesday. Credit Suisse shares dropped by as much as 30.8%, leading a 7% fall in the European banking index .SX7P, while five-year credit default swaps (CDS) for the flagship Swiss bank hit a new record high, reviving fears of a broader threat to the financial system.

☆ Property developer China Vanke raises nearly $500 million in share sale
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A crane with the China Vanke logo at a residential construction site in China, on Sept. 28, 2021. Major property developer China Vanke said on Thursday it had raised 3.92 billion Hong Kong dollars ($499 million) in a share placement in Hong Kong, in the first test of investor appetite towards a mainland developer share sale in 2023. State-backed Vanke said in a filing that it sold 300 million shares at HK$13.05 per share, versus their offer price range of between HK$12.93 to HK$13.20 apiece, according to the term sheets of the deal launched on Wednesday and seen by Reuters. Vanke shares fell as much as 5.3% to HK$13.16 early on Thursday, but narrowed losses to 3.7% by noon, versus a 0.5% fall in the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index .HSMPI. It added it will not use the proceeds for new domestic residential development projects.

☆ How to boost your portfolio income when companies cut dividends
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Dividend stocks have long been a way for investors to earn income, but recent cuts may have some concerned about what to do next. However, those recent decreases are unusual, said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S & P Dow Jones Indices. Where to look for income Corporate dividends are just one source of income, and that income should be just one part of your overall portfolio, said certified financial planner Jamie Hopkins, managing partner of wealth solutions at Carson Group. Dividend funds Another option is an exchange-traded fund composed of dividend stocks. WDIV YTD mountain SPDR S & P Global Dividend ETF's year-to-date performance The ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF , also tracks the index.

☆ Worried about Alibaba’s share price slump? Analysts name 4 alternatives in China tech
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

No Chinese tech stock has generated as much excitement as Alibaba , one of the most recognizable names in the Chinese internet sector. More than 76% of analysts covering the stock rate it a "buy," giving it average upside of 31%, according to FactSet data. Kuaishou is rated buy or overweight by 94% of analysts covering the stock, who give it average upside of around 24.4%. It is rated buy by 88% of analysts covering it, and has average upside of 37.7%, according to FactSet data. Rounding off the list is food delivery giant Meituan , with average upside of 32.5%.

Government bond yields are expected to tick up as investors shift focus to the upcoming budget. The rupee climbed 1.7% to 81.3250 per dollar last week, tracking a broad decline in the dollar index . There are a lot of positives for the rupee, including the Fed view, the broadly stable oil prices and the fall in Treasury yields, said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. Till then, bond yields should not fall much, as most people are expecting a heavy borrowing calendar," said Ajay Manglunia, managing director and head of investment grade group at JM Financial. Meanwhile, as a bulk of the fresh supply for the next financial year would hit the longer end, market participants expect yields to rise, while shorter-tenor yields may see some fall.

☆ Chip stocks tumbled in 2022. How to play the sector in the new year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-08 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Semiconductor stocks suffered a series of blows in 2022 as demand for consumer discretionary items fell off a cliff and supply chain disruptions continued. Betting on semiconductor favorites Despite ongoing volatility, some analysts and investors are still betting on once high-flying names in 2023, even though the challenges of 2022 continue. One of those is Advanced Micro Devices, a chip stock commonly connected with PC and server chips that fell hard in 2022. Texas Instruments held up better than the rest of the semiconductor market in 2022, shedding a little more than 12%. Bailey is mostly shying away from former, rapid growth names, with small bets on ASML and Marvell for clients looking for possible higher growth.

☆ Wells Fargo says this top bank pick can jump 55% this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo named Bank of America his top pick for 2023 on expectations for "near best-in-class" growth in net interest income, profit margins and earnings. The stock should merit a higher multiple this year and can climb 55% from its price on Tuesday, Mayo wrote in a note published that day. To be fair, Bank of America was also Mayo's top pick at the start of 2022. based on the Fed stress test," Mayo wrote of last year's stock decline. Mayo's other top picks are U.S. Bancorp and PNC Financial , both of which should beat consensus earnings by at least 6% over the next two years, Mayo wrote.

☆ Gold gains on dollar weakness as China relaxes COVID curbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Arundhati Sarkar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,809.20 per ounce by 1136 GMT. A weaker dollar also makes the greenback-denominated bullion less expensive for other currency holders. "Gold was weaker for most of 2022 amid aggressive tightening of monetary policies, rising real yields and dollar strength. "Sustained recovery in gold prices is possible if Fed pivots." In other metals, spot silver rose 1.6% to $24.09 per ounce, platinum gained 0.4% to $1,025.32, while palladium jumped 1.9% to $1,797.00.

☆ Goldman Sachs names 4 inflation-busting high-dividend stocks for next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Given some analysts' expectations of steep declines in share prices next year, Goldman Sachs has put together a basket of high-dividend stocks that could help investors hide from any potential carnage. Goldman Sachs analysts said that only companies making "sustainable" dividend payouts are included in their list. Goldman expects Madrid-headquartered Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria to increase its dividends to 8.2% next year from its current 6.48%. The median analyst price target on the stock also gives it 30% upside from current levels, according to FactSet. Along with a big dividend, the median analyst price target gives the stock 22% upside from current levels, Factset data shows.

☆ Rallies this year are following a distinct pattern — and so this one may have a little further to run
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

But Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, pointed out that the rally also came amid a falling level of market fear as gauged by the CBOE Volatility Index . "Our standing advice is the same: keep watching the CBOE VIX Index." The VIX closed Thursday at 23.5, just above its long-run average of 20 after peaking near 34 in early October. "By this measure, the current rally has some room to run. Being up +5 percent [Thursday] doesn't tell us that; the VIX as a measure of investor uncertainty does."

☆ Cathay’s outgoing boss can flash half-decent card
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Nov 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Cathay Pacific’s (0293.HK) new boss has reason for optimism. The outgoing chief executive can flash a half-decent report card. He navigated the Air China- (601111.SS) and Swire Pacific-backed (0019.HK) company through backlash from Beijing after employees took part in the 2019 Hong Kong protests. The $6 billion airline has seen a modest rebound of travellers since Hong Kong dropped hotel quarantine requirements. Since Tang’s appointment in August 2019, Cathay has logged a negative total return of 16%.

"The impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on Hyundai's EV sales in the U.S. market seems inevitable as EV incentives are the key factor to U.S. EV shoppers," Lee Jae-il, an analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities. In a mixed outlook, Hyundai raised on Monday its full-year revenue growth forecast range by six percentage points to 19-20% from its previous estimate in January. Reuters GraphicsThe provision, announced last week, amounted to more than half of estimated third-quarter net profit of 2.4 trillion won drawn from 17 analysts. Revenue for the quarter jumped 31% to 37.7 trillion won, above the 36 trillion won analysts had expected. But overall vehicle supply remains tight globally due to the chip shortage and COVID-related restrictions.

But in a mixed outlook, the company slashed its 2022 vehicle sales forecast by 7% to 4.01 million, as the auto industry struggles with supply chain disruptions involving chips and other components. Despite that upheaval, the company raised its full-year revenue growth forecast range by six percentage points to 19-20% from its previous estimate in January. The provision, announced last week, amounted to more than half of estimated third-quarter net profit of 2.4 trillion won drawn from 17 analysts. Revenue for the quarter jumped 31% to 37.7 trillion won, below the 36 trillion won analysts had expected. But overall vehicle supply remains tight globally due to the chip shortage and COVID-related restrictions.

☆ JPMorgan Chase tops analysts’ estimates for third-quarter profit on gains from interest income
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan Chase on Friday posted third-quarter results that topped analysts' estimates for profit and revenue as the firm reaped more than expected in interest income. Revenue: $33.49 billion, vs. $32.1 billion estimate. The bank said net interest income surged 34% in the quarter to $17.6 billion, thanks to higher interest rates and an expanding book of loans. JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, will be watched closely for clues on how banks are navigating a confusing environment. Rising interest rates mean that banks' core lending activity is becoming more profitable.

☆ REITs are suffering big time as rates rise, but there's opportunity in the carnage
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-07 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Their underperformance this year can be pinned to rising interest rates, since investors who have REITS for their high dividend yields may dump the assets for risk-free Treasurys. While he had reduced his firm's exposure to REITs due to rising interest rate fears, he's now thinking about increasing that exposure. REITs typically make up 5% to 10% of his firm's 10-year plus portfolio portfolio, with the exposure currently at the lower end of that range. In this environment, companies that are less sensitive to rising interest rates should outperform, said Morningstar's Brown. "They should be less sensitive overall to interest rates movements given that most investors are not in hotel names for the dividend," Brown said.

☆ Feared stock market bottom retest is now underway
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-24 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The first 60% reading was not at the decisive market low, though a year after each of them stocks were higher. The S & P index, maybe, at just under 16-times forecast profits, with some cross-asset models saying it should be perhaps two multiple points cheaper. Outside of the five largest S & P 500 names (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Tesla), the rest of the index is closer to a 14 multiple, with the equal-weighted S & P around 13. The three-year S & P 500 total return is still 9% annualized, meaning the bear hasn't yet really cut into muscle for longer-term investors. We'll see how this all plays into the feared market retest now underway.

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